Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM EST
Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida
Broadcast: ESPN+ (national/out-of-market); MSG (Sabres territory, pregame 6:30 PM); The Spot / local Lightning feeds; TVAS/radio options via team apps
Radio: WGR 550 (Sabres) / 970 WFLA or Lightning app (Lightning)
Team Context
The visiting Sabres sit 2nd/3rd in the Atlantic Division and firmly in the Eastern Conference playoff picture (top-6 East). The host Lightning are 1st in the Atlantic and 1st overall in the Eastern Conference, boasting the league’s best home record and a stranglehold on the division. This is the second of four 2025-26 meetings between these Atlantic rivals and a massive two points in a tight Eastern playoff race.
Recent Team Forms
Sabres (7-2-1 in last 10, ~75% points percentage): Buffalo is one of the NHL’s hottest teams since mid-December, posting elite underlying numbers (3.70 GF/G, 2.53 GA/G, .917 SV% in that span). They just completed a gritty back-to-back road swing with one-goal wins over New Jersey (2-1 on Feb. 25) and Florida (3-2 on Feb. 27), extending a road point streak to eight games. The offense is clicking, the defense is physical and structured, and they are 5-1-2 on back-to-backs this season.
Lightning (strong recent stretch, 8-1-1 or better in recent windows): Tampa Bay has not lost consecutive games in regulation since mid-December and owns an 11-game home winning streak entering tonight. They opened post-Olympic play with a 4-2 win over Toronto but dropped a wild 5-4 decision at Carolina on Thursday. Since December 9 they lead the NHL in points percentage (.821), goals per game (4.11), and are top-5 in goals against (2.50). Brayden Point has been electric since returning (5 points in two games).
Injury Report
Buffalo Sabres:
- F Zach Benson (upper body) — Day-to-day / possible return (joined the team in Florida and is a game-time decision).
- LW Jordan Greenway (abdomen) — IR, out until ~March 8.
- C Jiri Kulich (ear/blood clot) — IR, long-term (~March 20+).
- RW Justin Danforth (lower body) — IR.
- D Conor Timmins (leg) — IR.
Otherwise healthy and rolling.
Tampa Bay Lightning:
- C Anthony Cirelli (undisclosed) — Day-to-day (missed Thursday).
- LW Nick Paul (undisclosed) — IR, out until ~March 11.
- D Max Crozier (abdomen) — Out/IR (season-long).
Series History
Lightning lead the 2025-26 season series 1-0. On February 3 in Tampa, the Sabres led late but Tampa Bay tied it with under a minute left (Darren Raddysh) and won in OT (Jake Guentzel). Nikita Kucherov had 4 points (1G-3A) in that contest. Historically, these teams split most recent seasons, but Tampa has owned home games against Buffalo.
Projected Lineups & Player Matchups
Buffalo Sabres (Coach: Lindy Ruff)
Forwards
- Peyton Krebs – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch
- Jason Zucker – J.J. Peterka? / McLeod – JJ Quinn? (rotating)
- Ostlund – Norris – Doan / Malenstyn line
- Depth: Dunne-Kozak-Malenstyn (Benson possible insertion)
Defense
Samuelsson – Dahlin
Byram – Power
Metsa – Kesselring Goalies: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely) or Colten Ellis (fresh off solid relief/prior Tampa start); Alex Lyon played Friday.Key Matchups:
- Thompson-Tuch-Krebs vs. Lightning’s top shutdown (Hedman-Cernak or Moser-Raddysh).
- Sabres’ speed and forecheck vs. Tampa’s transition game.
- Malenstyn/Krebs physicality testing Tampa’s bottom six.
Tampa Bay Lightning (Coach: Jon Cooper)
Forwards
- Brandon Hagel? – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
- Jake Guentzel – ? – ? (Goncalves or similar)
- Girgensons-Gourde-Holmberg
- Sabourin-James depth
Defense
Moser-Raddysh
D’Astous-Hedman
McDonagh-Cernak Goalies: Andrei Vasilevskiy (expected starter — 9 straight wins, .938 SV% streak; 17-0-1 since Dec. 20) / Jonas Johansson.Key Matchups:
- Kucherov/Point vs. Sabres’ top D-pair (Dahlin/Samuelsson). Kucherov has owned Buffalo lately.
- Guentzel’s speed vs. Buffalo’s back end.
- Vasilevskiy’s elite play vs. Sabres’ road scoring punch.
Betting Trends
- Lightning are 19-9-0 at home and riding an 11-game home win streak.
- Sabres are 7-2-1 last 10 and strong on the road (16-11-3 away).
- Lightning games average high event (3.51 GF/G season), but recent home games controlled.
- Season series game hit OVER 6.5 (7 goals).
- Lightning are 22.2% on PP; Sabres penalty kill solid but tested.
- Tampa is 13-3 or better as heavy home favorites this season.
Game Odds
Buffalo Sabres 6.5
Tampa Bay Lightning – 238
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, February 27, 2026
