The AFC East concludes the 2025 NFL regular season with a Week 18 matchup featuring the rebuilding Dolphins traveling to face a dominant Patriots squad that’s clinched the division and a top playoff seed. Miami, eliminated from contention, seeks to end a mediocre year on a high note and potentially play spoiler, while New England aims to maintain momentum and possibly secure the No. 1 AFC seed with a win and favorable results elsewhere. The Patriots’ balanced attack and elite defense contrast with Miami’s inconsistent offense, setting up a potential mismatch in this storied rivalry, though the Dolphins have historically performed well against New England in recent years.
Venue Location
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts. This outdoor venue, opened in 2002, seats approximately 65,800 fans and features a grass surface, known for its passionate crowd and challenging winter conditions.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET (3:25 p.m. CT / 1:25 p.m. PT).
Broadcast: The game will be broadcast on FOX: Joe Davis, Greg Olsen, Pam Oliver (field reporter)
Streaming available via the FOX Sports app or NFL+.
Weather Updates
As an outdoor stadium, weather could influence passing games and special teams. Forecasts indicate cold conditions with highs around 36-40°F, lows near 23-32°F, and possible flurries or light precipitation (up to 2″ above average). Winds around 7 mph may add to the chill, potentially favoring run-heavy strategies and impacting field goals.
Injury Report
Both teams are dealing with ailments in the season closer, with Miami particularly hit in the secondary and backfield, while New England manages issues but remains relatively healthy for a finale with playoff implications.
Miami Dolphins Injuries:
RB De’Von Achane: DNP (shoulder).
LB Jordyn Brooks: DNP (hamstring).
S Minkah Fitzpatrick: Questionable (calf).
WR Jaylen Waddle: DNP (status uncertain).
C Aaron Brewer: Questionable (hand).
Others: 10 players listed, including LB Chop Robinson (ankle) and additional DNPs impacting depth.
New England Patriots Injuries:
DT Christian Barmore: DNP (illness).
TE Hunter Henry: DNP (knee).
FB Jack Westover: DNP (ankle).
G Jared Wilson: DNP (concussion).
DT Khyiris Tonga: DNP (foot).
LB Harold Landry: DNP (undisclosed).
OT Will Campbell: Full (knee).
CB Alex Austin: Full (wrist).
OT Thayer Munford: Questionable (illness).
Others: 7 non-participants on Wednesday, with several returning to practice.
Player Matchups
Injuries could limit explosiveness, but New England’s depth gives them edges in key battles, especially if Miami’s backfield is thinned.
Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Dolphins Secondary: Maye tests a Miami unit ranked 18th in pass yards allowed, potentially exploiting Fitzpatrick’s calf issue with targets to Kayshon Boutte.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patriots Pass Rush: Tagovailoa faces pressure from a New England front led by Landry (if active), but Barmore’s illness may open pockets.
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Dolphins Run Defense: Stevenson exploits Miami’s 25th-ranked run D, especially with Achane sidelined.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle vs. Patriots CBs: Hill leads the attack, but Waddle’s DNP status shifts burden against Austin (returning) and a solid secondary.
Recent Team Forms
The Dolphins have struggled to a 2-3 mark in their last 5 games, with inconsistent performances yielding an average of 21.1 PPG (22nd in NFL) and defensive lapses allowing opponents to score freely.
The Patriots are 4-1 in their last 5, dominating with 28.3 PPG (5th) and a stingy defense, improving to 13-3 after early-season adjustments under coach Mike Vrabel.
Series History
The Dolphins lead the all-time series 64-56 (including 1-2 in playoffs), with Miami holding a 12-8 edge over the last 10 years. New England has won 38-21 at home historically, but the rivalry features memorable moments like the “Miami Miracle” in 2018.
Betting Trends
Patriots: 10-6 ATS overall; 6-2 ATS at home; 11-5 as favorites.
Dolphins: 8-8 ATS; 7.5 win total hit under; 7-9 O/U.
Head-to-Head: Patriots 4-1 ATS last 5; overs in 6 of last 10; New England 15-3 SU in last 18 vs. Miami.
DOLPHINS NOTES:
• QB QUINN EWERS (rookie) completed 14 of 22 atts. (63.6 pct.) for 172 yards & 2 TDs with 118 rating in Week 17. Aims for his 3rd start in row with 60+ comp. pct. • RB DE’VON ACHANE led team with 112 scrimmage yards (83 rush, 29 rec.) last week. Is 1 of 4 in NFL with 100+ scrimmage yards in 10+ games (10) this season. Has 100+ scrimmage yards in 7 of his past 8. Has 100+ scrimmage yards & TD in 4 of his 5 games vs. division this season, incl. 122 scrimmage yards (92 rec., 30 rush) & TD catch in Week 2 meeting. • RB JAYLEN WRIGHT rushed for 56 yards in Week 17. Has 50+ scrimmage yards in 3 of his past 4. • WR JAYLEN WADDLE has 5+ catches, 70+ scrimmage yards & TD catch in 2 of his past 3 on road. Had 5 catches for 68 yards & TD in Week 2 meeting. • WR THEO WEASE (rookie) had 63 rec. yards & 1st-career TD catch in Week 17. • TE GREG DULCICH had 5 catches for 58 yards & TD last week. Aims for his 5th in row with 40+ rec. yards. • LB BRADLEY CHUBB had 3 tackles, 2 sacks & FF in Week 17. Aims for his 5th in row vs. NE with sack. • LB JORDYN BROOKS had 5 tackles, TFL & PD last week. Aims for his 5th in row on road with TFL & aims for his 4th in row overall with PD. Had 8 tackles & sack in Week 2 meeting. • LB TYREL DODSON had 5 tackles & sack in Week 17. Aims for his 4th in row with 5+ tackles. Had 9 tackles in Week 2 meeting. • CB RASUL DOUGLAS had 4 tackles last week. Has PD in 2 of his past 3 on road. Had PD in Week 2 meeting. • CB JACK JONES had 10 tackles, TFL & PD in Week 17. Spent 2022 season with NE. • CB JASON MARSHALL (rookie) had 5 tackles, TFL & 1st-career INT last week. • S ASHTYN DAVIS had 7 tackles, 2 PD & INT in Week 17.
PATRIOTS NOTES:
• PATRIOTS clinched 1st playoff berth since 2021 & 1st AFC East title since 2019. Lead AFC in total offense (374.5 yards per game) & scoring offense (28.3 points per game). • QB DRAKE MAYE completed 19 of 21 atts. (90.5 pct.) for 256 yards & 5 TDs with 157 rating in Week 17. Became 3rd player under 24 all-time with 2+ TD passes & 100+ rating in 10 games in single season. Became 6th QB under 24 all-time with 4,000+ pass yards (4,203) & 30+ TD passes (30) in single season. Has 70+ comp. pct., 250+ pass yards & 100+ rating in 3 of his past 4. Completed 19 of 23 atts. (82.6 pct.) for 230 yards & 2 TDs with 137.3 rating in Week 2 meeting. • RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON led team with 102 scrimmage yards (55 rec., 47 rush) & had 2 TDs (1 rush, 1 rec.) last week. Aims for his 5th in row with 75+ scrimmage yards. Had 142 scrimmage yards (88 rec., 54 rush) in Week 2 meeting. • RB TREVEYON HENDERSON rushed for 82 yards in Week 17. Ranks 2nd among rookies in scrimmage yards (1,079) & rush yards (858) in 2025. Has 80+ scrimmage yards in 7 of his past 8. • WR STEFON DIGGS had 6 catches for 101 yards & rec. TD last week. Aims for his 3rd in row with 100+ rec. yards. • TE HUNTER HENRY had 49 rec. yards & TD catch in Week 17. Aims for his 3rd in row with TD catch. • LB K’LAVON CHAISSON had 3 tackles & PD last week. Had sack in Week 2 meeting. • LB JAHLANI TAVAI had 5 tackles & 2 TFL in Week 17. Had 8 tackles, TFL & PD in his last game vs. Mia. (11/24/24). • CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ had 4 tackles last week. Aims for his 6th in row at home with PD. Had FR-TD in his last game vs. Mia. (11/24/24). • S JAYLINN HAWKINS had INT in Week 17. Had 8 tackles in Week 2 meeting.
Game Odds
Miami Dolphins 45.5
New England Patriots – 11.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Saturday, January 3, 2026
