The AFC East’s top-two showdown ignites when the Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, December 14, 2025, with the Pats aiming to clinch the division and a playoff bye via a season sweep after their 23-20 Week 5 upset in Orchard Park. New England’s 10-game win streak meets Buffalo’s balanced attack (28.9 PPG, 3rd), but Josh Allen’s dual-threat prowess (3,083 pass yds, 22 TD; 487 rush yds, 12 TD) faces a Pats D ranked 7th in yards allowed (296.4 YPG). Drake Maye (rookie sensation, 70% comp.) counters with poise, backed by a top-5 scoring D (18.5 OPP PPG). The Bills hold the tiebreaker edge but need chaos elsewhere for the No. 1 seed; Pats control destiny. Win sims: Pats 53% (Dimers model).
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT).
Broadcast: CBS: Ian Eagle, JJ Watt, Evan Washburn (field reporter)
Streaming on NFL+ ($6.99/mo) and Paramount+ (Essential). Pregame at 12:00 PM ET on NFL Network.
Venue Location:
Gillette Stadium, 1 Patriot Place, Foxborough, MA 02035 (42°05’25″N 71°16’00″W). This 65,878-seat open-air fortress—home since 2002—delivers biting December winds and raucous vibes, with heated suites for VIPs. Accessible via I-95 (exit 10) or Boston Logan Airport (BOS, 40-min drive).
Weather Updates
Foxborough’s winter bite looms large, potentially favoring run games and defenses in this outdoor affair. Game-time forecast: 29°F with mostly cloudy skies (11% precipitation chance, light snow flurries possible pre-kickoff) and northwest winds at 7 mph (gusts to 10 mph), yielding wind chills near 20°F. Humidity 65%, no major accumulation expected (trace snow). Impacts: Winds under 10 mph minimally disrupt passes (+5% completion historical), but cold suppresses scoring (Pats 4-2 U in <30°F home games; Bills 3-1 U road cold). Tailgate wisely—fire pits essential.
Injury Report
Both teams enter relatively healthy post-bye (Pats) and short week (Bills), but key absences test depth—Buffalo’s front seven and Pats’ backfield hit hardest. Updates as of Thursday, December 11 (via NFL.com; Friday reports pending).
Buffalo Bills:
Out: DT Ed Oliver (torn biceps—IR, season-ending), WR Curtis Samuel (IR, elbow/neck), WR Mecole Hardman (IR, calf), S Taylor Rapp (IR, knee), K Tyler Bass (IR, left hip/groin), DT Michael Hoecht (IR, torn right Achilles), S Damar Hamlin (IR, pectoral), DT DeWayne Carter (IR, torn Achilles).
Questionable/Limited: DE Joey Bosa (hamstring—limited, trending up), LB Terrell Bernard (ankle—limited), OT Spencer Brown (questionable), WR Joshua Palmer (questionable), S Cole Bishop (toe—questionable), LB Dorian Williams (illness—limited), CB Kaiir Elam (shoulder—limited), TE Dalton Kincaid (elbow—limited).
Impact: Oliver’s absence softens run D (team 10th, 107.1 YPG allowed); Bosa/Brown upgrades boost pass rush/OL protection for Allen.
New England Patriots:
Out: None major new; RB Terrell Jennings (knee—IR return pending).
Questionable/Limited: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (foot—limited), S Brenden Schooler (abdomen—questionable), DT Khyiris Tonga (knee—questionable), G Jared Wilson (questionable), CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder—limited), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (hamstring—limited).
Impact: Stevenson’s foot caps backfield (team 15th rush, 128.7 YPG); secondary holds if Gonzalez plays, but Schooler absence thins special teams.
Full practices Thursday; no QB concerns (Allen/Maye full-go).
Player Matchups
This divisional dogfight hinges on QB duels and trench control, with Allen’s mobility vs. Pats’ edges pivotal. Key battles:
QB Josh Allen (BUF) vs. Pats Pass Rush (Matthew Judon/Ja’Whaun Bentley): Allen (70.1% comp., 237.2 ypg) gashed NE for 281 yds/2 TD in Week 5—Judon (9 sacks) exploits BUF’s 15th OL (25 sacks allowed), but Bentley’s hamstring limits coverage.
RB James Cook (BUF) vs. Pats Front 7 (Christian Barmore/Donte Brown): Cook (1,308 rush yds, 8 TD; NFL-leading 157.8 team ypg) tests NE’s 12th run D (107.7 YPG allowed). BUF’s No. 1 rush vs. Pats’ gap integrity.
WR Khalil Shakir/Keon Coleman (BUF) vs. CB Christian Gonzalez/Trent McDuffie): Shakir (585 rec yds, top target) vs. Gonzalez’s lockdown (11 PD); Coleman’s YAC vs. McDuffie’s slot savvy.
QB Drake Maye (NE) vs. Bills Secondary (Christian Benford/Poyer trade echo): Maye (rookie, 3,200+ yds est., 20 TD) vs. BUF’s 8th pass D (198 ypg allowed). Bills’ blitzes (32 sacks) pressure Maye’s growth.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) vs. Bills Front (Ed Oliver out, Greg Rousseau): Stevenson (900+ yds est.) grinds vs. BUF’s depleted DL (10th run D sans Oliver).
Pats Defense Edge: 7th in yards, forcing TOs vs. BUF’s +5 differential.
Team Records
| Team | Record | Division | Playoff Odds | Key Stats |
| Bills | 9-4 (.692) | 1st AFC East | 95% | 28.9 PPG (3rd), 23.1 OPP PPG (15th), 383.7 TOT YPG (2nd) |
| Patriots | 11-2 (.846) | 2nd AFC East | 99% | 24.5 PPG (12th), 18.5 OPP PPG (5th), 362.6 TOT YPG (8th) |
Bills: Hold tiebreaker; Pats win clinches East/No. 1 AFC seed.
Recent Form
Buffalo Bills (3-2 in last 5): Potent offense (383.7 YPG, 2nd) shines, but D inconsistencies (307.1 YPG allowed, 10th) show in losses.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Dec 7 | vs CIN | W 31-28 | Allen 3 TD pass/rush; Cook 120 yds, D 2 TO. |
| Nov 30 | @ PHI | L 20-27 | 3 TO; 42.9% 3rd-down conv. |
| Nov 23 | vs SF | W 34-24 | Allen 312 yds/3 TD; 55.6% 3rd-down. |
| Nov 16 | @ TEN | W 28-17 | Balanced; D holds Levis to 198 yds. |
| Nov 9 | vs DEN | W 24-20 | Cook 2 TD; 50% 3rd-down. |
New England Patriots (4-1 in last 5): 10-game streak with Maye’s growth; D suffocates (18.5 OPP PPG).
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Nov 28 | vs IND (pre-bye) | W 27-20 | Maye 280 yds/2 TD; Stevenson 100 yds. |
| Nov 23 | @ BUF | W 23-20 | Maye 245 yds; D late stand. |
| Nov 16 | vs NYJ | W 31-14 | 58.3% 3rd-down; 2 INT. |
| Nov 9 | @ CHI | W 24-17 | Maye 233 yds/2 TD; grind win. |
| Nov 2 | vs TEN | W 26-0 | Shutout; D 3 sacks. |
Series History
Patriots dominate historically (80-51-1 overall, including playoffs), but Bills own recent edge (6-4 last 10; 3-2 last 5). Week 5: Pats 23-20 (Maye game-winner). Avg. score: NE 22.2-19.0 BUF. Trend: Close (decided by <7 pts in 7/10); O/U: O 6-4 last 10. December: Pats 18-7 SU home vs. BUF.
Betting Trends
Under surges 62% action at 50.5 (U 7/13 Pats, 6/13 BUF; series U 6-4 last 10, weather factor). Pats +1.5 draws sharps (45% high-limits) as home dogs (4-1 ATS); BUF 6-7 ATS season (3-4 road). Bills 0-5 ATS last 5 vs. NE; X buzz: 58% pro-Pats post-bye. Stable lines; monitor Bosa for BUF drift.
Predicted Score: New England Patriots 27, Buffalo Bills 24
BILLS NOTES:
• BILLS became 3rd team all-time to overcome 10+-point deficit & score 21+ points in 4th quarter to win 2 games (Week 1) in single season. • QB JOSH ALLEN completed 22 of 28 atts. (78.6 pct.) for 251 yards & 3 TDs vs. 0 INTs for 139.7 rating & rushed for 78 yards & TD in Week 14, 50th game with TD pass & rush TD, most in NFL history. Became 1st player ever with 20+ TD passes & 10 rush TDs in 3+ seasons (2023-25) & 1st player all-time with 3,000+ pass yards, 20+ TD passes & 10 rush TDs in 3 consecutive & career seasons (2023-25). Completed 22 of 31 atts. (71 pct.) for 253 yards & 2 TDs vs. INT with 103.3 rating in Week 5 meeting. • RB JAMES COOK led team with 111 scrimmage yards (80 rush, 31 rec.) last week. Has 110+ scrimmage yards in 6 of his past 7, incl. past 4, longest active streak in NFL. • WR KHALIL SHAKIR had TD catch in Week 14. Has 50+ rec. yards in 3 of his past 4 on road. • TE DALTON KINCAID had TD catch last week. Has TD catch in 2 of his past 3. Had 6 catches for 108 yards in Week 5 meeting. • TE JACKSON HAWES (rookie) had TD catch in Week 14. • DE A.J. EPENESA had 3 tackles & INT last week. Had half sack & PD in Week 5 meeting. • LB SHAQ THOMPSON had 6 tackles & TFL in Week 14. Had 5 tackles, sack & FF in Week 5 meeting. • CB MAXWELL HAIRSTON (rookie) had 3 tackles & 2 PD last week. • CB CHRISTIAN BENFORD had sack & 1st-career INT-TD in Week 14. Aims for his 3rd in row with TFL & INT. • CB TARON JOHNSON had 5 tackles & PD last week. Has PD in 2 of his past 3. • S JORDAN POYER led team with 7 tackles in Week 14. Aims for his 8th in row with 5+ tackles. Had 7 tackles & PD in last game vs. NE (11/24/24 w/ Mia.).
PATRIOTS NOTES:
• PATRIOTS have 10 consecutive wins & with 1 win, can record 3rd 11-game win streak within single season in franchise history, • QB DRAKE MAYE completed 24 of 31 atts. (77.4 pct.) for 282 yards & 2 TDs vs. 0 INTs with 126 rating in Week 13. Is 1 of 3 QBs (Patrick Mahomes & Dak Prescott) with 250+ pass yards in 10 games this season. Aims for his 7th in row with 250+ pass yards & TD pass. Completed 22 of 30 atts. (73.3 pct.) for 273 yards & 101.1 rating in Week 5 meeting. • RB TREVEYON HENDERSON led team with 86 scrimmage yards (67 rush, 19 rec.) in Week 13. Is 1 of 2 rookies (Quinshon Judkins) with 75+ scrimmage yards in 6+ games (6) this season. Aims for his 6th in row with 80+ scrimmage yards. • RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON had 80 scrimmage yards (40 rush, 40 rec.) in Week 13. Aims for his 5th in row at home with 40+ scrimmage yards. Had 2 rush TDs in Week 5 meeting & aims for his 3rd in row vs. Buf. with rush TD. • WR STEFON DIGGS spent 4 seasons (2020-23) with Buf. Had 10 catches for 146 yards in Week 5 meeting. • WR KAYSHON BOUTTE had TD catch in Week 13. Has TD catch in 2 of his past 3 at home. Had 7 catches for 117 yards & TD catch in last home game vs. Buf. • TE HUNTER HENRY had 4 catches for 73 yards in Week 13. Aims for his 4th in row with 45+ scrimmage yards. • LB CHRISTIAN ELLISS had 6 tackles & PD in Week 13. Aims for his 4th in row vs. Buf. with 6+ tackles. • LB HAROLD LANDRY had 5 tackles & sack in Week 13. Aims for his 3rd in row with sack. Had 5 tackles & TFL in Week 5 meeting. • LB ELIJAH PONDER (rookie) had sack in Week 13. Has sack in 3 of his past 4. • CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ had 3 tackles & PD in Week 13. Has PD in 5 of his past 6. Had 6 tackles & PD in Week 5 meeting. • CB CARLTON DAVIS had 5 tackles, 2 PD & TFL in Week 13. Aims for his 3rd in row with 5+ tackles & 2+ PD.
Game Odds
Buffalo Bills – 1.5
New England Patriots 49.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Saturday, December 13, 2025
