The Buffalo Bills (12-5, No. 6 seed in AFC) travel to face the Denver Broncos (14-3, No. 1 seed in AFC) in an AFC Divisional Round playoff matchup. This is the second consecutive postseason meeting between the teams, with the Bills winning 31-7 in the 2024 Wild Card round. Buffalo advanced with a 27-24 Wild Card win over Jacksonville on Jan. 10, 2026, showcasing Josh Allen’s heroics despite injuries. Denver, earning a bye as the top seed, rested after a 13-3 Week 18 win over San Francisco. The Broncos’ elite defense (No. 1 in run defense, allowing 91.65 YPG) faces a Bills offense that’s averaged 351.4 total YPG but is banged up at receiver. Buffalo’s road resilience (6-3 away) adds intrigue, but Denver’s home dominance (8-1) and Sean Payton’s 4-0 record in Divisional Rounds after byes make them favorites in what could be a low-scoring grind.
Venue Location
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO (Capacity: 76,125). The high-altitude venue (5,280 feet elevation) often affects visiting teams’ conditioning, giving Denver a notable home-field edge.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 PM ET (Broadcast: CBS).
Broadcast: CBS: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson (field reporter)
Westwood One: Ryan Radtke, Mike Golic
Weather Updates
Clear skies with temperatures around 43°F at kickoff, dropping to mid-30s by game’s end. Winds light at 4-6 mph from the SSE, with 0% chance of precipitation and humidity at 55-65%. No significant impact on passing or kicking games, but the altitude could exacerbate fatigue for both teams, particularly the Bills coming from sea level.
Injury Report
Both teams enter with notable absences, but Buffalo’s wide receiver room is decimated, potentially forcing a run-heavy approach. Denver’s secondary is relatively healthy, giving them an edge in pass defense.
Buffalo Bills:
WR Gabe Davis (knee): Out for season (torn ACL; suffered in Wild Card win).
WR Tyrell Shavers (knee): Out for season (torn ACL; suffered in Wild Card win).
S Jordan Poyer (hamstring): Out; missed Wild Card game, no return timeline.
QB Josh Allen (foot): Probable; played through in Wild Card, full practice.
WR Curtis Samuel (elbow): Questionable; on IR but practice window opened, potential activation.
TE Dalton Kincaid (ankle/foot): Questionable; limited practice.
LB Terrel Bernard (calf): Questionable; limited practice.
RB Ty Johnson (ankle): Questionable; limited practice.
Denver Broncos:
4 players on injury report (per ); specific details sparse, but no major stars listed as out. LB Shaq Thompson limited with neck issue; secondary relatively healthy.
Key
Player Matchups to Watch
QB Josh Allen (BUF) vs. Broncos Secondary: Allen (injured foot; ~3,800 passing YDS, 28 TDs this season) must improvise without Davis and Shavers. Denver’s No. 1 pass defense (178.5 YPG allowed) features strong coverage from Pat Surtain II and a pass rush led by Nik Bonitto (8.5 sacks).
RB James Cook (BUF) vs. LB Josey Jewell (DEN): Cook (~1,200 rushing YDS, 8 TDs) is Buffalo’s ground threat. Jewell (leading tackler with ~120 tackles) anchors Denver’s No. 1 run defense (91.65 YPG allowed).
WR Stefon Diggs (BUF) vs. CB Pat Surtain II (DEN): Diggs (~1,100 YDS, 8 TDs) becomes Buffalo’s primary target with injuries. Surtain (top coverage CB, 4 INTs) must shadow Diggs to limit big plays.
QB Bo Nix (DEN) vs. LB Matt Milano (BUF): Nix (rookie; 3,200 passing YDS, 22 TDs) has been efficient. Milano (100 tackles, 3 INTs) leads Buffalo’s defense, focusing on underneath coverage.
Recent Team Forms
Buffalo Bills (7-3 in last 10 games, +8.2 point differential):
The Bills averaged 27.3 PPG in their last 10 while allowing 19.1, with a strong run game (145.2 rushing YPG). They’re on a 1-game win streak after the Wild Card upset, but injuries to receivers limit passing options.
| Date | Opponent | Result |
| Jan 10 | @ JAX (Wild Card) | W 27-24 |
| Jan 4 | @ MIA | W 24-21 |
| Jan 1 | vs NE | W 35-28 |
| Dec 29 | @ NYJ | L 21-24 |
| Dec 27 | vs CHI | W 112-103 |
| Dec 25 | @ KC | L 21-28 |
| Dec 21 | vs MIA | W 31-24 |
| Dec 18 | @ BUF | W 35-28 |
| Dec 14 | vs KC | L 24-31 |
| Dec 7 | @ NE | W 28-21 |
Denver Broncos (8-2 in last 10 games, +12.5 point differential):
The Broncos averaged 28.4 PPG in their last 10 while allowing 15.9, with a No. 1 run defense. They’re on a 2-game win streak heading into the playoffs after clinching the top seed.
| Date | Opponent | Result |
| Jan 4 | vs SF | W 13-3 |
| Dec 31 | @ IND | W 152-128 |
| Dec 29 | vs MIN | W 35-28 |
| Dec 27 | vs CHI | W 112-103 |
| Dec 25 | @ SEA | W 28-21 |
| Dec 21 | vs ATL | W 116-112 |
| Dec 19 | @ MIN | L 28-35 |
| Dec 14 | vs NYJ | W 35-28 |
| Dec 7 | @ BUF | W 31-24 |
| Dec 4 | vs ATL | L 104-107 |
Series History
Buffalo leads the all-time series 24-17-1 in 42 games (including 2 postseason), with 971 points scored to Denver’s 857. In playoffs, Buffalo is 2-0. The Bills’ largest win was 48-19 on Dec. 19, 2020 (+29 margin); Denver’s was 37-7 on Oct. 21, 1984 (+30 margin). At Empower Field, Denver is 9-10 vs. Buffalo. Recent matchups favor Buffalo, winning 2 of last 3, including a 31-7 playoff rout on Jan. 12, 2025. Games average 45.5 points, trending under in 5 of last 8.
Betting Trends
Broncos are 6-3 ATS at home this season; Bills are 6-3 ATS on the road.
Over has hit in 5 of Denver’s last 7 home games; under in 5 of Buffalo’s last 7 road games.
Bills are 6-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records; Broncos are 10-7 ATS overall.
Trends: Broncos are 6-3 ATS in last 9 vs. AFC East; Bills are 4-2 ATS in last 6 as underdogs. The total has gone under in 5 of the last 7 Bills-Broncos games; Sean Payton is 10-6 ATS in playoffs.
BILLS NOTES:
• BILLS qualified for postseason for 7th consecutive season & can advance to 2nd consecutive Conf. Champ. game for 1st time since 1990-93 seasons. • QB JOSH ALLEN led all QBs in rush TDs (14) this season. Has most rush TDs by QB in NFL history (79) & most games with TD pass & rush TD (50). Has most combined pass & rush yards by player in 1st 8 seasons (34,823). Became 1st QB & 4th player ever with 6+ rush TDs in each of 1st 8 seasons. Has 3rd-most wins by starting QB all-time, incl. playoffs, in 1st 8 seasons (96). Has 3,632 pass yards (259.4 yards per game) & 36 TDs (26 pass, 9 rush, 1 rec.) in 14 starts in playoffs. Completed 20 of 26 atts. (76.9 pct.) for 272 yards & 2 TDs with 135.4 rating in 2024 AFC-WC meeting. Made 4th-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • RB JAMES COOK ranked 4th in scrimmage yards (career-high 1,912) & tied-5th in TDs (14) in 2025. Was 1 of 2 in NFL (Christian McCaffrey) with 100+ scrimmage yards in 12 games this season. Has 120 scrimmage yards in each of his 2 career games vs. Den. Made 3rd-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • WR KHALIL SHAKIR led team in receptions (72) & rec. yards (719) in 2025. Aims for his 6th in row in playoffs with 6+ receptions. Had 6 catches in 2024 AFC-WC meeting. • TE DALTON KINCAID had career-high 5 rec. TDs this season. • TE DAWSON KNOX ranks tied-5th all-time among TEs with 6 career playoff rec. TDs. • DE GREG ROUSSEAU led team with 7 sacks in 2025. Aims for his 5th in row, incl. playoffs, with 0.5+ sacks. Has sack in each of his 2 career games vs. Den. • DE JOEY BOSAled team with 9 TFL & 5 FF in 2025. Was only DL in NFL with 5+ FFs this season. • LB MATT MILANO tied career-high 3.5 sacks in 2025. Aims for his 6th in row on road, incl. playoffs, with TFL. • CB TRE’DAVIOUS WHITE led team with 10 PD & had career-high 6 TFL in 2025. Aims for his 6th in row on road, incl. playoffs, with PD. • CB MAXWELL HAIRSTON ranked tied-3rd among rookies with 2 INTs in 2025. • S COLE BISHOP led team with career-high 85 tackles in 2025 & set career highs in PD (7), TFL (4), INTs (3) & sacks (2). Was 1 of 2 DBs (Derwin James) to have 85+ tackles, 3+ INTs & 2+ sacks.
BRONCOS NOTES:
• BRONCOS won AFC West & earned No. 1 seed for 1st time since 2015. Tied franchise record with 14 wins this season. Have advanced to Super Bowl 6 of previous 8 times as No. 1 seed. • QB BO NIX has 3rd-most TD passes by player in 1st 2 seasons (54). Became 4th player ever with 25+ TD passes in 1st 2 seasons & became 4th player all-time with 700+ comp. in each of 1st 2 seasons. Passed for 144 yards & TD & rushed for 43 yards in 2024 AFC-WC meeting. • RB RJ HARVEY led rookies with 12 scrimmage TDs in 2025. Was 1 of 2 rookie RBs (Alvin Kamara) since 2000 with 7+ rush TDs & 5+ rec. TDs. Has TD in 5 of his past 6. • WR COURTLAND SUTTON led team in receptions (74) & rec. yards (1,017) in 2025, 3rd season with 1,000+ rec. yards. Had 5 catches for 75 yards in 2024 AFC-WC meeting. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • WR TROY FRANKLIN set career highs in receptions (65), rec. yards (709) & rec. TDs (6) in 2025. • TE EVAN ENGRAM is 1 of 3 TEs all-time with 40+ receptions in each of 1st 9 seasons. • T GARETT BOLLES & G QUINN MEINERZ made 1st-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • LB ALEX SINGLETON led team with 135 tackles in 2025, 5th-career season with 100+ tackles. Aims for his 17th in row at home with 6+ tackles. Had 11 tackles & FR in 2024 AFC-WC meeting. • LB NIK BONITTO led team with career-high 14 sacks in 2025. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • DL ZACH ALLEN had 5 tackles, 2 TFL & sack in 2024 AFC-WC meeting. Made 1stcareer Pro Bowl in 2025. • CB PAT SURTAIN II had 47 tackles & 12 PD in 2025. Is 1 of 5 since 2010 with 45+ tackles & 10+ PD in each of 1st 5 seasons. Made 4th-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • CB RILEY MOSS tied-most in NFL with career-high 19 PD this season. Has 2+ PD in 3 of his past 4. Had 7 tackles & PD in 2024 AFC-WC meeting. • S TALANOA HUFANGA set career highs in tackles (106), PD (11) & TFL (6) in 2025.
Game Odds
Buffalo Bills 45.5
Denver Broncos – 1.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, January 16, 2026
