The NFC South rivalry reignites under the Thursday Night Football lights as the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) in a pivotal divisional clash. Both teams are mired in recent slumps, with the Bucs clinging to the top spot in the division but desperate for a win to solidify their playoff positioning. The Falcons, mathematically eliminated but playing spoiler, aim to exploit Tampa Bay’s defensive vulnerabilities and extend their edge in recent head-to-head meetings. This matchup could hinge on Atlanta’s ground game against a Bucs run defense that’s shown cracks, while Tampa Bay’s passing attack looks to rebound at home.
Venue Location
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida (capacity: 65,844). The iconic pirate ship-adorned stadium has hosted countless memorable NFC South battles, and the Bucs boast a strong 4-2 home record this season.
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET.
Broadcast: Prime Video: Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit, Kaylee Hartung (field reporter)
Westwood One: Jason Benetti, Kyle Rudolph
Weather Updates
Expect ideal conditions for football in Tampa: clear skies with temperatures around 60°F (63.8°F at kickoff per forecasts) and light winds under 5 mph. There’s only an 8% chance of precipitation, making this a dome-free passer-friendly night with no weather-related disruptions anticipated. Tampa’s mild December evenings should favor both offenses, which have combined to hit the over in 10 of their last 13 games collectively.
Injury Report
Both teams enter with key absences and question marks, particularly on offense and in the secondary, which could tilt the scales toward a high-scoring affair. Here’s a breakdown of the latest status reports from Wednesday’s practices:
| Team | Player | Position | Status | Injury | Notes |
| Falcons | Drake London | WR | Out | Knee (PCL strain) | Fourth straight game missed; 810 yards, 6 TDs this season. Mooney and Pitts step up. |
| Falcons | Kyle Pitts | TE | Questionable | Knee | Limited practice; 49 yards in last outing. Vital safety valve for Cousins. |
| Falcons | Jalon Walker | LB | Questionable | Quadriceps | Limited; key pass rusher with 6 sacks. |
| Falcons | Brandon Dorlus | DT | Questionable | Groin | Limited; rotational piece in run defense. |
| Falcons | Chris Lindstrom | G | Questionable | Foot | Limited; All-Pro guard protects Cousins’ blindside. |
| Falcons | Kaden Elliss | LB | Full | Elbow | No limitations; leads team with 78 tackles. |
| Buccaneers | Cade Otton | TE | Doubtful | Knee | DNP Wednesday; 28 yards last game. Durham/Culp fill in. |
| Buccaneers | Tykee Smith | S | Doubtful | Neck/Shoulder | DNP; team-leading 90 tackles. Winfield Jr. covers ground. |
| Buccaneers | SirVocea Dennis | LB | Out | Hip | DNP; depth linebacker misses third straight. |
| Buccaneers | Rashad Wisdom | S | Out | Quadriceps (IR) | Ruled out; special teams ace. |
| Buccaneers | Jalen McMillan | WR | Questionable | Neck | Limited; 115 yards in recent games. Evans/McMillan return possible boost. |
| Buccaneers | Chris Godwin | WR | Questionable | Collarbone/Fibula | Limited; 750 yards, 5 TDs. Big target if cleared. |
| Buccaneers | Benjamin Morrison | CB | Full | Hamstring | Ready; locks down top receivers. |
| Buccaneers | Christian Izien | S | Full | Neck | Back in action; adds depth. |
| Buccaneers | Haason Reddick | OLB | Full | Ankle | Pass rush anchor with 8 sacks. |
Atlanta’s wideout depth takes a hit without London, forcing reliance on Darnell Mooney (48 yards last game) and Ray-Ray McCloud. Tampa Bay’s tight end and safety issues could expose their secondary to Atlanta’s play-action passes.
Player Matchups
This game’s fireworks will come from these head-to-head battles, where individual edges could swing momentum:
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Bucs LB Lavonte David & S Antoine Winfield Jr.
Robinson (887 rushing yards, 7 TDs) has been Atlanta’s bell cow, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and thriving in inside zone schemes under OC Zac Robinson. The Bucs rank 18th against the run (115.2 yards allowed/game), and without Dennis, David (89 tackles) and Winfield (92 tackles, 3 INTs) must swarm to contain him. If Robinson exceeds 80 yards, Atlanta controls the clock.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons EDGE Jalon Walker & DT David Onyemata
Mayfield (2,722 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs; 61.6% completion) has cooled lately (under 200 yards in 3 of last 5), but faces a Falcons pass rush that’s generated 28 sacks (10th in NFL). Walker (questionable, 6 sacks) and Onyemata (5 sacks) could exploit Tampa’s O-line, ranked 22nd in pass block win rate. Mayfield’s quick release (2.4-second average) is key.
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins vs. Bucs CB Benjamin Morrison & S Christian Izien
Cousins (2,150 yards since Week 9, 12 TDs/4 INTs) has revitalized Atlanta’s passing game, but without London, he’ll lean on Pitts (if active) and Mooney. The Bucs’ secondary is banged up (Smith doubtful), with Morrison (2 INTs) and Izien (full practice) tasked with coverage. Cousins averages 215 yards vs. top-15 secondaries.
Bucs RB Rachaad White vs. Falcons LB Kaden Elliss & DT Brandon Dorlus
White (612 rushing yards, 4 TDs) is a receiving threat out of the backfield (36.5 yards/game), but Atlanta’s front seven (Elliss: 78 tackles) limits RBs to 3.8 yards/carry. Dorlus (questionable) adds interior pressure. White’s over 17.5 rushing yards is a trendy prop.
Bucs WR Mike Evans (if active) vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell
Evans (850 yards, 8 TDs) could return from injury, testing Terrell (3 INTs, 65% completion rate allowed). A matchup nightmare if Evans plays.
These battles underscore Tampa’s home-field urgency against Atlanta’s opportunistic rush.
Team Records
Atlanta Falcons: 4-9 (3rd in NFC South)
2-5 on the road, averaging 19.4 PPG (27th). They’ve scored 252 points while allowing 313, with a +12 turnover margin but -45 in sacks taken.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-6 (1st in NFC South)
4-2 at home, averaging 23.0 PPG (tied-17th). They’ve put up 299 points but surrendered 325, with a -3 turnover differential and 25 sacks allowed.
The Bucs hold the divisional tiebreaker edge but can’t afford a slip with Carolina lurking at 7-6.
Recent Team Forms
Both squads are in freefall, combining for a 2-8 record over their last five games. Here’s a snapshot:
| Falcons Last 5 Games | Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| vs. SEA | Dec 7 | Home | L 9-37 | Cousins 191 pass yds, 1 TD; Defense allows 365 total yds. |
| @ NYJ | Nov 30 | Away | L 24-27 | Robinson 87 rush yds, 1 TD; 3 turnovers doom comeback. |
| @ NO | Nov 23 | Away | W 24-10 | Cousins 220 pass yds, 2 TDs; Hold foes under 300 yds. |
| vs. CAR | Nov 16 | Home | L 27-30 | Penix Jr. 250 pass yds; Late FG miss costs game. |
| @ IND | Nov 9 | Away | L 25-31 (OT) | Robinson 84 rush yds; Defense bends but doesn’t break early. |
Form Notes: 1-4, outscored 127-135. Cousins era (3-3) shows promise, but red-zone inefficiency (42% TD rate) plagues them.
| Bucs Last 5 Games | Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| vs. NO | Dec 7 | Home | L 20-24 | Mayfield 184 pass yds, 1 TD; Irving 52 rush yds. |
| vs. ARI | Nov 30 | Home | W 20-17 | Mayfield 194 pass yds; Defense forces 2 TOs in upset. |
| @ LAR | Nov 23 | Away | L 7-34 | Bridgewater 62 pass yds (Mayfield out); Rushed for 42 yds. |
| @ BUF | Nov 16 | Away | L 32-44 | Mayfield 317 pass yds, 3 TDs; Secondary torched for 414 total yds. |
| vs. NE | Nov 9 | Home | L 23-28 | Mayfield 273 pass yds; White 53 rush yds, but 3 TOs. |
Form Notes: 1-4, outscored 102-147. Mayfield’s INTs (3 in last 5) and run D woes (165 yds/game allowed) are glaring.
Series History
The all-time series is dead even at 32-32, a testament to the NFC South’s parity. Atlanta holds a slight 17-15 edge in Tampa, but the Bucs are 3-2 at home since 2020. Recent trends favor the Falcons, who won 3 of the last 5 meetings:
Sep 7, 2025: Bucs 23-20 (at ATL) – Last-second FG heartbreak for Falcons.
Oct 27, 2024: Falcons 31-26 (at TB) – Robinson’s 100+ all-purpose yds seals it.
Oct 3, 2024: Bucs 28-24 (at ATL) – Mayfield’s late TD pass.
Dec 10, 2023: Falcons 29-25 (at TB) – Cousins outduels Winston.
Oct 22, 2023: Bucs 20-17 (at ATL) – OT thriller won on FG.
Points average 43.2 per game in the series, with the over hitting 60% of the time. Expect another close, gritty divisional dogfight.
Betting Trends
Spread: 64% of bets/72% of handle on Bucs -4.5 (public fading Atlanta’s road woes). Falcons are 4-1 ATS in last 5 vs. Tampa.
Total: 59% of bets on Over 44.5 (91% handle), driven by both teams’ defensive averages (25+ PPG allowed). Over has cashed in 7 of Bucs’ last 10 home games.
Key Trends: Bucs 2-11 ATS in Q1 this season; Falcons 6-3 ATS in divisional road games. Public overreaction to Bucs’ home edge could create trap value on Atlanta.
FALCONS NOTES:
• QB KIRK COUSINS passed for 162 yards in Week 14. Ranks 6th in NFL with 43,824 pass yards & 5th with 291 TD passes since 2012. Has TD pass in 2 of his past 3. Passed for 276 yards & 4 TDs in last game vs. TB (10/27/24). • RB BIJAN ROBINSON had team-high 86 rush yards in Week 14. Aims for 7th in row with 85+ scrimmage yards & ranks 1st with 1,683 scrimmage yards this season. Has 3,513 rush yards, 1,520 rec. yards & 30 scrimmage TDs since 2023 & is the 2nd player ever (HOFer LaDainian Tomlinson) with 3,000+ rush yards, 1,500+ rec. yards & 30+ scrimmage TDs in 1st 3 seasons. Had 6 rec. for 100 yards & TD catch in Week 1 meeting. • RB TYLER ALLGEIER had 67 scrimmage yards (34 rush, 33 rec.) in Week 14. Has scrimmage TD in 2 of his past 3 on road. • TE KYLE PITTS led team with 6 receptions for 90 yards in Week 14 & aims for 3rd in row with 80+ rec. yards. Ranks tied-4th among TEs since 2021 with 3,282 rec. yards. • EDGE JAMES PEARCE (rookie) had sack last week & has sack in 5 consecutive games, tied for 4th-longest streak by a rookie since 1982. Ranks 1st among rookies with 6 sacks this season. • DL KENTAVIUS STREET had 1st sack of season in Week 14. Had sack in last game vs. TB (12/10/23). • LB DIVINE DEABLO had 6 tackles & TFL last week. Aims for 4th in row with 6+ tackles & 4th in row with TFL. Had 6 tackles & 0.5 sack in Week 1 meeting. • CB DEE ALFORD had 5 tackles & TFL in Week 14. Has PD in 4 of his past 5. Aims for 3rd in row with TFL. • CB A.J. TERRELL had team-high 8 tackles & had TFL, PD & 1st FF of 2025 in Week 14. Has PD in 3 of his past 4. Had 2 PD in Week 1 meeting. • CB MIKE HUGHES had 6 tackles, TFL & 1st INT of season in Week 14. Aims for 8th in row with 5+ tackles. Has PD in 2 of his past 3.
BUCCANNERS NOTES:
• QB BAKER MAYFIELD passed for 122 yards & TD & added 42 rush yards in Week 14. Has TD pass in 12 of 13 games & aims for 7th in row at home with TD pass this season. • RB BUCKY IRVING had team-high 81 scrimmage yards (55 rush, 26 rec.) & TD catch in Week 14. Aims for 7th in row with 80+ scrimmage yards. • RB RACHAAD WHITE has 2,558 career rush yards & aims for 15th career rush TD (14). Has 50+ scrimmage yards 3 of his past 4 at home. • RB SEAN TUCKER had 5th rush TD of season last week. • WR CHRIS GODWIN led team with 5 receptions for 55 yards in Week 14. Aims for 3rd in row with 50+ rec. yards & 9th in row vs. Atl. with 50+ rec. yards. • WR EMEKA EGBUKA ranks tied-1st among rookies with 6 TD catches & 2nd among rookies with 806 rec. yards this season. • TE TEZ JOHNSON ranks tied-3rd among rookies with 5 TD catches in 2025. • NT VITA VEA had 5 tackles, 2 TFL & sack in Week 14. Has 0.5+ sack in 4 of his past 5 at home. Aims for 3rd in row with sack. Has TFL in 2 of his past 3 vs. Atl. • DL GREG GAINES had 2nd sack of season in Week 14. Aims for 3rd in row with TFL. • LB LAVONTE DAVID had 5 tackles in Week 14 & has 5+ tackles in 8 of his past 9. Ranks 2nd in NFL with 1,689 tackles & tied-2nd with 176 TFL since 2012. Had 9 tackles & TFL in Week 1 meeting. • LB CHRIS BRASWELL had 1st sack of 2025 last week. • LB YAYA DIABY had 1st PD of season in Week 14. Has sack in 2 of his past 3. Had TFL in Week 1 meeting. • CB ZYON MCCOLLUM had 1st INT of season in Week 14. Had 10 tackles & TFL in Week 1 meeting. • S ANTOINE WINFIELD JR. had 5 tackles & PD in Week 14 & has PD in 5 of his past 6. Has 7+ tackles in 6 of his past 7 vs. Atl. • S CHRISTIAN IZIEN had team-high 8 tackles & TFL last week.
Game Odds
Atlanta Falcons 44.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Wednesday, December 10, 2025
