The 2025 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl Classic pits the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (11-2) against the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) in a high-stakes rematch of historic rivals. This playoff matchup revives memories of their iconic clashes, including the 2003 Fiesta Bowl national championship. Miami, under head coach Mario Cristobal, seeks to advance after a breakthrough season, leveraging a potent offense against Ohio State’s elite defense. The Buckeyes, led by Ryan Day, aim to continue their dominant Big Ten run and chase another title. As a neutral-site game in the expanded 12-team playoff, it promises intensity, with Ohio State’s depth favored but Miami’s explosiveness capable of an upset.

Venue Location

The game will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This 80,000-capacity domed venue, home to the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys, has hosted the Cotton Bowl since 2010 and provides a controlled indoor environment with state-of-the-art facilities and a massive video board.

Arlington’s location favors Ohio State fans with easier travel from the Midwest, though Miami’s South Florida base will draw a passionate contingent.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. CT / 4:30 p.m. PT). The game will be televised on ESPN.

Weather Forecast

As an indoor game at AT&T Stadium, weather will not impact play. For fans tailgating or traveling, Arlington’s forecast calls for mild conditions with a high of 63°F and a low around 43°F. Expect partly cloudy skies with a 25% chance of light precipitation, winds at 7 mph, and moderate humidity—comfortable for late December but prepare for cooler evenings.

Injury Report and Opt-Outs

Playoff games see fewer opt-outs as players chase championships, but injuries and transfers still factor in. Miami deals with secondary woes, while Ohio State enters relatively healthy, with minimal absences reported.

• Miami Hurricanes:
  • Out (Injury): CB Damari Brown (undisclosed).

• Out (Injury): LB Malik Bryant (undisclosed).

• Out (Injury): WR Dylan Upshaw (undisclosed).

• Questionable/Probable (Injury): DB Keionte Scott (undisclosed; missed final three regular-season games but probable for bowl).

Miami’s secondary is thinned, potentially exposing them to Ohio State’s passing attack, but no major opt-outs beyond transfers in non-key roles.

• Ohio State Buckeyes:
  • Questionable (Injury): WR Jeremiah Smith (undisclosed; limited late in season but expected to play).

• Out (Injury): WR Carnell Tate (undisclosed; missed Rutgers game).

Ohio State’s receiving corps could be impacted if Smith is limited, but reports indicate minimal opt-outs, with the team motivated for a title run.

Key Player Matchups

This game features Ohio State’s top-ranked defense (allowing fewest yards nationally at ~250 per game) against Miami’s high-powered offense (averaging 35+ points).

Key battles could decide advancement:

• Miami QB Carson Beck vs. Ohio State Secondary: Beck, a transfer standout, has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 25 TDs. He’ll face Ohio State’s elite DBs, including S Caleb Downs and CB Davison Igbinosun, who lead a unit allowing under 150 passing yards per game. If Beck exploits injuries like Scott’s status, Miami stays competitive.
• Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith vs. Miami Secondary: Smith, a sophomore sensation with 1,200+ yards and 12 TDs, is OSU’s go-to weapon.  

Miami’s thinned CBs (Brown out, Scott questionable) could struggle, especially if Smith is healthy post-injury concerns.

• Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. vs. Ohio State Run Defense: Fletcher (1,000+ yards, 10 TDs) anchors Miami’s ground game.  

Ohio State’s front, allowing under 100 rushing yards per game, features DEs like Phillip Daniels and LBs for containment.

• Ohio State QB Lincoln Kienholz vs. Miami Pass Rush: Kienholz’s efficiency (20+ TDs) will test Miami’s front, led by LB Malik Bryant (if healthy), in a matchup favoring OSU’s protection. Ohio State’s defensive dominance gives them the edge, but Miami’s balance could force turnovers.

Recent Team Forms

• Miami Hurricanes: Finished 11-2 (6-2 ACC), with a late surge including wins over Louisville and Syracuse but losses to SMU and a home upset.

Averaged 35 points in wins. Form (last five): W-W-L-W-W.

• Ohio State Buckeyes: Ended 12-1 (9-0 Big Ten), undefeated in conference with blowouts over Michigan (48-10) and UCLA but a non-conference loss.

Defense allowed under 15 points per game in wins. Form (last five): W-W-W-W-L.

Conference vs. Conference

An ACC vs. Big Ten clash, where the Big Ten’s physicality often prevails. The Big Ten is 11-6 in 2025-26 bowls, while the ACC struggles at 2-11.

topdan.com +3

Historically, Big Ten holds a 111-82-2 edge over ACC in all games, 27-22 in bowls.

Betting Trends

• Miami: 7-6 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS as underdogs. The over has hit in 8 of 13 games, but they struggle ATS against top defenses (2-4).

• Ohio State: 10-3 ATS, 8-2 ATS as favorites of 9+ points. The under has hit in 9 of 13, reflecting defensive dominance.

• General: Favorites are 8-2 SU/ATS in recent Cotton Bowls; under is 15-5 in bowls with totals ≤46.

Historical Betting Results

In Cotton Bowl history, favorites cover 8-2 ATS over the last 10 games, with outright winners on 12-4 SU/ATS runs.

The under hits frequently in low-total games (≤46). Big Ten teams are 4-2 ATS vs. ACC in recent playoff/bowl matchups.

Game Odds

Miami-FL Hurricanes                      42.5

Ohio State Buckeyes                       – 9.5

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 31, 2025

The 2025 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl features the Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-5) against the No. 15 Utah Utes (10-2) in a Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup. Nebraska returns to bowl play under third-year coach Matt Rhule, aiming to build momentum after a middling season marked by close losses. Utah, in its second Big 12 year under Kyle Whittingham, enters as heavy favorites following a strong campaign, though opt-outs on the offensive line could create vulnerabilities. This neutral-site game revives a dormant series, with Nebraska holding historical dominance but facing a modern Utah program that’s risen to prominence. Expect a defensive battle, as Utah’s physicality clashes with Nebraska’s improving run game.

Venue Location

The game will be held at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. This 65,000-seat domed venue, home to the NFL’s Las Vegas Raiders, offers a state-of-the-art indoor environment, eliminating weather impacts and providing a high-energy atmosphere for bowl games since 2021.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. PT (3:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. CT). The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

Injury Report and Opt-Outs

Bowl attrition is moderate, with Utah hit harder by opt-outs on the offensive line, potentially exposing QB Cam Rising to Nebraska’s pass rush. Nebraska deals with key absences in the backfield and coaching staff changes, but their roster shows better cohesion.

• Nebraska Cornhuskers:
  • Out/Opt-Out: RB Emmett Johnson (declared for 2026 NFL Draft; leading rusher).

• Questionable/Full Participant: QB TJ Lateef (undisclosed; full participant in recent practices).

• Multiple coaches dismissed, impacting preparation, but no major additional player opt-outs reported beyond Johnson.

Nebraska’s run game takes a hit without Johnson, shifting focus to backups like Gabe Ervin Jr. and QB Dylan Raiola’s mobility.

• Utah Utes:
  • Out/Opt-Out: RT Spencer Fano (NFL Draft; All-Big 12 caliber).

• Out/Opt-Out: LT Caleb Lomu (NFL Draft; key protector).

• Potential additional opt-outs from trackers, but core like QB Cam Rising and RB Micah Bernard expected to play.

Utah’s O-line depth is tested, which could hinder their balanced attack against Nebraska’s front seven.

Overall, Utah’s absences loom larger, but Nebraska’s coaching flux adds uncertainty.

Key Player Matchups

Utah’s experience gives them edges, but Nebraska’s defense could exploit opt-outs. Pivotal battles include:

• Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola vs. Utah Secondary: Raiola (2,500+ passing yards, 18 TDs) has shown growth but faces Utah’s top-20 pass defense (allowing 189 yards/game). Without full O-line protection for Utah, Raiola could find WRs like Isaiah Neyor for chunk plays.

• Utah QB Cam Rising vs. Nebraska Pass Rush: Rising (2,800+ yards, 24 TDs) is a veteran dual-threat, but with Fano and Lomu out, he’ll test Nebraska’s front (19 sacks this season). Nebraska DEs like Nash Hutmacher could pressure Rising into mistakes.

• Nebraska Rushing Attack vs. Utah Run Defense: Without Johnson, Nebraska leans on Ervin (limited production) against Utah’s stout front (allowing 3.8 yards/carry). This matchup favors Utah controlling the line.
• Utah RB Micah Bernard vs. Nebraska Front Seven: Bernard (1,000+ yards) could exploit Nebraska’s average run D (4.2 yards/carry allowed) if the thinned O-line holds.

Nebraska needs turnovers to stay in it, while Utah’s balance should prevail.

Recent Team Forms

• Nebraska Cornhuskers: 7-5 overall (4-5 Big Ten), with a mixed bag: Wins over Colorado (28-10), Rutgers (14-7), and Purdue, but losses to Ohio State (21-17) and Iowa. They averaged 25.8 points in wins but struggled offensively in defeats. Form (last five): W-L-W-L-W.

• Utah Utes: 10-2 overall (7-2 Big 12), dominant with wins over Arizona State (42-10), BYU (24-21), and Colorado (53-7), losses to Arizona and TCU. They scored 47 points average in wins. Form (last five): W-W-W-L-W.

Conference vs. Conference

Big Ten vs. Big 12: The Big Ten has dominated 2025-26 bowls at 11-6 overall, including strong showings against the Big 12. Historically, the Big Ten leads all-time series 60-56, emphasizing physical play over the Big 12’s speed.

Betting Trends

• Nebraska: 5-2 ATS in last 7 December games, but 1-10 SU as underdogs in last 11; 2-6-1 ATS last 9 overall.

• Utah: 10-4 ATS last 14, 5-0 SU last 5; over in 4 of last 5.

• General: Utah 5-1 ATS at home/neutral; Nebraska 1-4 ATS as neutral underdogs.

Historical Betting Results

No recent head-to-head betting data since 1992. In Las Vegas Bowl history, favorites cover 6-4 ATS last 10; under hits in 7 of 10 with totals under 51. Big Ten underdogs vs. Big 12: 3-2 ATS in recent bowls.

Game Odds

Nebraska Cornhuskers                  50.5

Utah Utes                                           – 14

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Wednesday, December 30, 2025

The 2025 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl features a rematch between the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (9-3) and the No. 13 Texas Longhorns (9-3), just over a year after their regular-season clash. This neutral-site game pits Michigan’s resilient defense and emerging offense against a Texas team dealing with significant roster attrition but still boasting talent under Steve Sarkisian. Michigan, fresh off a chaotic coaching change with Sherrone Moore fired, enters under interim leadership, while Texas looks to end a disappointing non-playoff season on a high note. With opt-outs heavily impacting Texas, this could be closer than their prior meetings, offering Michigan a shot at redemption.

Venue Location

The game will be held at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. This 65,000-seat venue, formerly the Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium, has hosted the Citrus Bowl since 1947 and provides a festive, open-air atmosphere with modern upgrades. Orlando’s central location draws fans from both programs, though Texas’ larger alumni base in the South may create a slight edge in crowd support.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET (2:00 p.m. CT). The game will be broadcast on ABC.

Weather Forecast

Orlando’s forecast for December 31, 2025, predicts mild and comfortable conditions with highs around 73-77°F and lows near 59°F. Expect partly cloudy skies with a low 10-20% chance of isolated showers, light winds at 5-10 mph, and moderate humidity. These conditions should support a balanced game without major disruptions, though any moisture could favor ground attacks early on.

Injury Report and Opt-Outs

Bowl season’s roster challenges are evident here, with Texas facing far more absences due to opt-outs, transfers, and injuries, potentially up to 20 scholarship players missing. Michigan, in contrast, has minimal opt-outs, reflecting stronger buy-in amid their coaching turmoil.

• Michigan Wolverines:
  • Opt-Out: DE Derrick Moore (NFL Draft; key pass rusher with 5 sacks).

• Opt-Out: LB Jaishawn Barham (NFL Draft; leading tackler).

• Opt-Out: OG Giovanni El-Hadi (NFL Draft; offensive line starter).

• Out (Injury): RB Justice Haynes (foot surgery; missed November games).

• Out (Injury): LB Ernest Hausmann (missed final two games).

• Out (Injury): S Mason Curtis (hurt vs. Ohio State).

• Out (Injury): LT Evan Link (last played Week 8).

• Out (Injury): S Rod Moore (season-long).

Michigan’s losses weaken their front seven and backfield depth, but core players like QB Bryce Underwood and the secondary remain, allowing them to field a competitive unit.

• Texas Longhorns:
  • Opt-Out: CB Malik Muhammad (NFL Draft lean; secondary leader).

• Opt-Out: LB Anthony Hill Jr. (NFL Draft; All-SEC tackler).

• Opt-Out: S Michael Taaffe (NFL Draft).

• Opt-Out: DE Ethan Burke (NFL Draft).

• Opt-Out: LB/DE Trey Moore (NFL Draft).

• Opt-Out: CB Jaylon Guilbeau (NFL Draft).

• Out/Transfer: RB CJ Baxter, RB Jerrick Gibson, RB Quintrevion Wisner (portal/injuries).

• Out/Transfer: QB Trey Owens, WR Aaron Butler, OL Connor Stroh (portal).

Texas’ defense is decimated, losing much of its front and secondary, while the running back room is thin, forcing reliance on backups and putting pressure on QB Arch Manning.

Key Player Matchups

With Texas’ depleted defense, Michigan’s offense could exploit gaps, but Texas’ talent at skill positions remains a threat. Key battles include:

• Michigan QB Bryce Underwood vs. Texas Secondary: The freshman Underwood (stepping up amid injuries) faces a Texas backfield missing Muhammad, Taaffe, and Guilbeau. If Michigan protects him, he could connect with WRs like Semaj Morgan for big plays against a vulnerable unit.

• Texas QB Arch Manning vs. Michigan Pass Rush: Manning’s mobility and arm strength lead Texas’ attack, but without key RBs, he’ll test Michigan’s front (minus Moore and Barham). Michigan’s secondary, led by CB Will Johnson, could force turnovers if they contain Manning’s scrambles.

• Michigan Rushing Attack vs. Texas Run Defense: Without Haynes, Michigan relies on backups like Donovan Edwards to grind against Texas’ weakened line (missing Hill, Burke, Moore). This matchup favors Michigan controlling the clock.

• Texas WRs vs. Michigan Secondary: Texas’ receivers, like Isaiah Bond, could exploit Michigan’s thinned DBs if Manning has time, but opt-outs limit protection.

Michigan’s depth gives them edges in the trenches, potentially turning this into a defensive slog.

Recent Team Forms

• Michigan Wolverines: Finished 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten), showing grit in conference play. Last five games: W 24-7 vs. Washington, W 31-20 @ Michigan State, W (vs. Purdue, assumed), L @ Ohio State, W vs. Northwestern. They averaged 28 points in wins but struggled in losses to elite teams.

Form: W-W-W-L-W.

• Texas Longhorns: Ended 9-3 (6-2 SEC), with close calls in a tough schedule. Last five games: W 23-6 vs. Oklahoma, W 16-13 OT @ Kentucky, W 45-38 OT @ Mississippi State, W 34-31 vs. Vanderbilt, L (to Texas A&M, assumed). High-scoring in wins but vulnerable defensively late.

Form: W-W-W-W-L.

Both teams closed strong but enter with questions due to changes.

Conference vs. Conference

This Big Ten vs. SEC matchup highlights the Big Ten’s physicality against the SEC’s speed. The Big Ten leads 11-6 in 2025-26 bowls overall and has flipped historical trends, going 4-1 vs. the SEC recently, though the SEC holds a 68-36 all-time bowl edge.

Betting Trends

• Michigan: 6-6 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS as underdogs of 7+ points. The under has hit in 8 of 12 games, especially in low-scoring affairs (average total 45).

• Texas: 7-5 ATS, 5-3 ATS as favorites, but 2-4 ATS in games with opt-out concerns. The over has hit in 7 of 12, thriving offensively but vulnerable defensively.

Historical Betting Results

In Citrus Bowl history, favorites have covered 7 of 10 since 2014 and 23-12-3 since 1986. The under has hit in 8 of the last 12 with totals under 50. SEC teams are 11-3 straight up in the last 14 vs. Big Ten, but Big Ten underdogs have covered 60% in recent bowls.

Game Odds

Michigan Wolverines                     47.5

Texas Longhorns                               – 7.5

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Tuesday, December 30, 2025

The 2025 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl pits the Arizona State Sun Devils (8-4) against the Duke Blue Devils (8-5) in a rematch of sorts from their 2014 Sun Bowl encounter. This Big 12 vs. ACC clash features Arizona State looking to build on a surprising season under Kenny Dillingham, while Duke, the ACC champions, aims to cap Manny Diaz’s debut year with a ninth win. Despite opt-outs, particularly on Arizona State’s side, the game promises intrigue with Duke’s balanced attack facing ASU’s resilient defense. As a neutral-site postseason event, it offers both teams a chance to end 2025 strongly.

Venue Location

The game will be held at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas. This 51,500-capacity open-air venue, nestled in the Franklin Mountains and home to UTEP football, has hosted the Sun Bowl since 1935, making it the second-oldest bowl game. Its unique setting provides a scenic backdrop, though the high altitude (about 3,900 feet) could subtly affect play, favoring teams with strong conditioning.

Kickoff is set for 2:00 p.m. ET (12:00 p.m. MST / 1:00 p.m. CT). The game will be broadcast on CBS.

Weather Forecast

El Paso’s forecast for December 31, 2025, indicates mild winter conditions typical for the region, with highs around 57-60°F and lows in the low 30s. Expect mostly sunny skies with minimal wind (5-10 mph) and a low chance of precipitation (under 10%). The dry, high-desert climate should allow for crisp passing conditions, though cooler temperatures could favor run-heavy strategies if the game extends into the shaded afternoon.

Injury Report and Opt-Outs

Bowl attrition hits Arizona State harder, with key transfers and injuries depleting their offense and secondary. Duke has fewer absences but loses depth on the lines and in the backfield, potentially exposing them to ASU’s ground game if healthy.

• Arizona State Sun Devils:
  • Out/Transfer: QB Sam Leavitt (transfer portal; season-ending injury concerns; 2,365 passing yards, 21 TDs).

• Opt-Out/Questionable: WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring; potential opt-out; team-high 1,098 receiving yards).

• Out/Transfer: S Xavion Alford (undisclosed; transfer portal).

• Out/Transfer: CB Keith Abney II, RB Raleek Brown, OL Max Iheanachor, CB Keyshaun Elliott (all transfer portal).

• Out/Transfer: OT Josh Atkins, CB Javan Robinson (transfer portal).

• Out: CB Rodney Bimage Jr. (hasn’t played since Week 12).

ASU’s quarterback situation falls to backups Jeff Sims or Cam Dyer, severely impacting their passing attack.

• Duke Blue Devils:
  • Out/Opt-Out: OT Brian Parker II (NFL Draft prep).

• Out/Opt-Out: CB Chandler Rivers (NFL Draft).

• Out/Opt-Out: DE Vincent Anthony Jr. (NFL Draft).

• Questionable: LB Ben Gompers (undisclosed).

Duke’s losses affect protection and coverage, but QB Maalik Murphy and the core offense remain intact.

ASU’s extensive opt-outs (over 10 key players) could prove decisive, while Duke’s minimal absences highlight stronger program buy-in.

Key Player Matchups

With ASU’s quarterback carousel, the game may hinge on ground control and defensive opportunism. Standout battles include:

• Duke QB Maalik Murphy vs. ASU Secondary: Murphy (3,200+ passing yards, 25 TDs) leads Duke’s efficient attack and could exploit ASU’s depleted DBs (missing Alford, Abney, Robinson). If ASU can’t pressure, Murphy’s accuracy to WRs like Que’Sean Brown could rack up yards.
• ASU Backup QB (Jeff Sims/Cam Dyer) vs. Duke Pass Rush: Without Leavitt, ASU turns to unproven arms against Duke’s front (missing Anthony but still top-30 in sacks). Duke’s LBs, led by Tre Freeman, must contain ASU’s mobility to force turnovers.
• ASU RB Cam Skattebo vs. Duke Run Defense: Skattebo (1,200+ rushing yards, 12 TDs) is ASU’s workhorse, testing Duke’s front (allowing 4.1 yards per carry). Without Parker, Duke’s line could yield big runs if ASU establishes early.
• Duke RB Star Thomas vs. ASU Front Seven: Thomas (800+ yards) provides balance; ASU’s defense (top-40 against the run) must limit him to keep Duke one-dimensional.

Duke’s cohesion gives them matchup edges, but Skattebo could keep ASU competitive if the backups avoid mistakes.

Recent Team Forms

• Arizona State Sun Devils: Finished 8-4 (6-3 Big 12), starting strong but fading late. Last five: W 26-22 vs. Texas Tech (10/18), L 24-16 vs. Houston (10/25), W vs. Oklahoma State, L to Arizona, W in non-conference finale. They averaged 28 points in wins but struggled offensively in losses (under 20 points).

Form: W-L-W-L-W.

• Duke Blue Devils: Ended 8-5 (6-2 ACC), with a resilient championship run. Last five: Wins over NC State, Virginia Tech; L to Miami; W vs. Wake Forest, Virginia. They scored 30+ in four of five wins but allowed explosive plays in defeats.

Form: W-W-L-W-W.

Duke enters hotter, while ASU’s inconsistencies loom large with opt-outs.

Conference vs. Conference

This Big 12 vs. ACC matchup highlights the Big 12’s tempo against the ACC’s physicality. The Big 12 holds a 47-41 all-time edge over the ACC, including 5-3 in bowls since 2015. In 2025-26 bowls, the Big 12 is 4-5 overall, while the ACC struggles at 2-11, giving the Big 12 a slight historical nod despite recent ACC woes.

Betting Trends

• Arizona State: 13-6 ATS in last 19 games overall, but 2-1 ATS as 3+ point underdogs this season. They’ve gone over in 6 of last 8 after allowing 280+ passing yards.

• Duke: 4-1 SU in last 5, 3-2 ATS; 4-2 ATS on the road/neutral. The under has hit in 5 of their last 7 as favorites.

• General: ASU is 5-6-1 ATS overall; Duke 76th in red zone offense efficiency.

Historical Betting Results

No recent head-to-head beyond 2014 (ASU covered as +7.5 underdog). In Sun Bowl history, favorites are 6-4 ATS in the last 10; the under has hit in 7 of 10 with totals under 50. Big 12 teams are 3-2 ATS vs. ACC in bowls over five years.

Game Odds

Arizona State Sun Devils               49.5

Duke Blue Devils                              – 3

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Tuesday, December 30, 2025

The 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl features a top-25 showdown between the No. 23 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) and the No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2). This matchup contrasts Iowa’s trademark stout defense and ground-and-pound offense with Vanderbilt’s breakout season under head coach Clark Lea, highlighted by upset wins and a dynamic quarterback. As a neutral-site game, it caps off Vanderbilt’s best campaign in decades while giving Iowa a chance to upset a ranked SEC foe. The teams have no prior history, making this a novel encounter in a bowl with a tradition of competitive Big Ten-SEC clashes.

Venue Location

The game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. This 65,000-seat venue, home to the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has hosted the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl) since 1999, offering a lively atmosphere with favorable sightlines and modern amenities.

Tampa’s warm climate and proximity to both fanbases should draw a balanced crowd, though Vanderbilt’s Southern roots might give them a slight edge in attendance.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET (11:00 a.m. CT / 9:00 a.m. PT). The game will air on ESPN.

Weather Forecast

Tampa’s forecast for December 31, 2025, calls for mild, comfortable conditions with highs around 73°F and lows near 59°F. Expect partly cloudy skies with a low 10-20% chance of scattered showers, light winds at 5-10 mph, and moderate humidity. These conditions favor passing games but won’t significantly hinder play, though any rain could slicken the field slightly for early-afternoon action.

Injury Report and Opt-Outs

Bowl season often sees roster changes, but both teams enter relatively intact, with minimal opt-outs emphasizing program culture. Iowa boasts zero declared opt-outs, while Vanderbilt loses one key contributor.

• Iowa Hawkeyes:
  • Returning: CB TJ Hall (expected back from undisclosed injury; missed final two regular-season games but spotted at practice).

• No opt-outs reported; full roster expected, per head coach Kirk Ferentz and OC Tim Lester.

Iowa’s depth remains strong, particularly on defense, allowing them to maintain their physical style.

• Vanderbilt Commodores:
  • Opt-Out: TE Eli Stowers (NFL Draft prep; nation’s top tight end with significant production).

• Minimal transfers (four announced, all low-impact players unlikely to see snaps).

• Otherwise healthy; no major injuries reported heading into the game.

Vanderbilt’s losses are limited, but Stowers’ absence thins their receiving options, putting more onus on backups.

Both programs highlight team unity, with Iowa’s lack of opt-outs attributed to strong bonds and Vanderbilt seeing few departures despite their breakthrough year.

Key Player Matchups

This game could boil down to Iowa’s elite defense (allowing just 270.6 yards per game) against Vanderbilt’s explosive offense (averaging 32.8 points).

Key battles include:

• Iowa QB Mark Gronowski vs. Vanderbilt Secondary: Gronowski, a dual-threat leader, will test Vanderbilt’s pass defense (allowing 23.1 points per game).  
• With receivers like Kaleb Moulton and return specialist Kaden Wetjen, he could exploit mismatches if protected. Vanderbilt’s CB Martel Hight and S Marlen Sewell must contain big plays.
• Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia vs. Iowa Pass Rush: Pavia (2,841 passing yards, 22 TDs; 812 rushing yards, 8 TDs) is a Heisman dark horse whose mobility drives Vanderbilt’s attack. He’ll face Iowa’s front seven, led by DE Ethan Hurkett and LB Jayden Montgomery, who rank top-10 nationally in sacks (3.2 per game).

If Iowa contains Pavia’s scrambling, they control the tempo.

• Iowa Rushing Attack vs. Vanderbilt Run Defense: Iowa’s ground game (led by RBs Jaziun Patterson and Xavier Williams) averages 158 yards per game.

They’ll challenge Vanderbilt’s front, anchored by DE Zaylin Wood and LB Bryan Longwell, which has improved but allowed 4.1 yards per carry.

• Breakout Potential: Watch Iowa S Xavier Nwankpa (interception leader) for turnover creation, and Vanderbilt RB Sedrick Alexander (1,000+ yards) to exploit gaps if Stowers’ absence opens lanes.

Iowa’s physicality could wear down Vanderbilt, but Pavia’s playmaking gives the Commodores an edge in explosive potential.

Recent Team Forms

• Iowa Hawkeyes: Finished 8-4 (6-3 Big Ten), with a gritty style yielding wins like 37-0 over Wisconsin, 25-24 over Penn State, and 41-3 over Minnesota, but losses to top teams like Oregon (18-16).

They averaged 28.9 points in wins but struggled offensively in defeats. Form (last five): W-W-L-W-W.

• Vanderbilt Commodores: Went 10-2 (6-2 SEC), their best record since 2018, with statement wins like 31-24 over LSU, 45-24 over Tennessee, and 44-20 over Virginia Tech, offset by losses to Alabama (30-14) and Georgia.

Pavia fueled a late surge. Form (last five): W-W-W-L-W.

Vanderbilt enters hotter, but Iowa’s consistency against ranked foes keeps it intriguing.

Conference vs. Conference

A classic Big Ten vs. SEC battle, where the Big Ten’s discipline meets the SEC’s athleticism. The Big Ten leads 11-6 in 2025-26 bowls overall, going 4-1 against the SEC in recent postseason games, flipping historical trends where the SEC holds a 68-36 all-time bowl edge.

Betting Trends

• Iowa: 8-3-1 ATS overall, excelling at 6-5-1 as underdogs and 6-6-1 on totals. They’ve covered in 4 of 5 recent games against ranked opponents but lean under in low-scoring affairs (average total 45.2).

• Vanderbilt: 9-3 ATS, strong at 7-1 as favorites and 8-4 on over/unders. They’ve covered 80% of spreads in wins, thriving in high-upset scenarios.

• General: Vanderbilt is 6-1 SU in their last seven, while Iowa is 3-2 ATS as underdogs of 4+ points.

Historical Betting Results

With no head-to-head history, look to ReliaQuest Bowl trends: Favorites have covered 60% of spreads since 2010, with the under hitting in 7 of the last 10 games (averaging 48 points). Big Ten teams are 5-3 ATS in this bowl against SEC foes, often in close contests.

Game Odds

Iowa Hawkeyes                                46.5

Vanderbilt Commodores              – 4

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Tuesday, December 30, 2025