Venue and Race Overview

The Baffle Stakes is set to take place at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California, USA. This iconic venue, nestled against the San Gabriel Mountains, features a one-mile dirt oval and a unique downhill turf course, renowned for its winter racing circuit and historic stakes. The race is scheduled for Saturday, January 24, 2026, with a post time of 3:35 PM PT. This stakes event is for 3-year-olds, contested over 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf (down the hillside course). The purse is approximately $100,000, with weights of 122 lbs. (colts/geldings) and allowances for non-winners. It’s a downhill turf sprint that rewards sharp early speed and balance, often favoring horses with proven hillside form, and named after the Hall of Fame trainer Baffle.

Expected Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for January 24, 2026, in Arcadia indicates partly cloudy skies with a high of 70-72°F and a low around 52°F. Winds will be light from the southwest at 3-5 mph, with humidity around 47% and a low 4-10% chance of scattered showers (up to 0.2 inches). No significant precipitation is expected, keeping the turf firm and fast—typical for Santa Anita’s winter grass, which drains well and often benefits speed horses on the downhill. If any light rain occurs, the course could yield slightly, favoring horses with soft-ground experience. Expect a quick pace setup, with the hillside playing fair but sometimes rewarding inside paths.

Field Analysis

A competitive field of 10 3-year-olds lines up for this downhill turf sprint, featuring international flavors and local talent. Key factors include hillside turf experience, early speed (Beyer figures noted), and adaptability to potential yielding ground. Trainers like Philip D’Amato and Mark Glatt have strong SA records. Below is a horse-by-horse breakdown, including post position (PP), horse details, jockey, trainer, recent finishes (last 5 with dates, tracks, positions, distances, surfaces, and figures based on available data), and analysis.

PP 1: Corporal Violette (IRE) (3yo colt, by Starspangledbanner – dam not specified)
Jockey: Armando Aguilar (reliable, 14% win rate). Trainer: Mark Rheinford (consistent with imports, 15% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (103) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 2nd (100) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 3rd (98) at SA Trial (10/18/2025, 6f turf); 4th (95) at DMR MSW (9/1/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: Irish import off a sharp maiden win down the hill; Rheinford’s charge has tactical speed. Aguilar saves ground from rail; high figure (103 recent). Proven on firm turf; untested in soft but pedigree okay. Longshot value if repeats debut.

PP 2: The Mizen Queen (IRE) (3yo filly, by Cotai Glory – dam not specified)
Jockey: William Pyle (up-and-coming, 12% win rate). Trainer: Dan Blacker (turf specialist, 16% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (103) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 1st (100) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 3rd (98) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 4th (95) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: European-bred with recent maiden score; Blacker’s filly improving. Pyle presses; solid figures (103 peak). Stalker; soft turf potential per pedigree. Underlay at price for exotics.

PP 3: Royal Charter (GB) (3yo colt, by Expert Eye – dam not specified)
Jockey: Armando Ayuso (aggressive, 15% win rate). Trainer: Jeff Mullins (SA expert, 18% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (112) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6.5f turf downhill); 1st (110) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 2nd (107) at SA Trial (10/5/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (105) at DMR MSW (8/10/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: British import on win streak; Mullins preps sharply for hillside. Ayuso rides aggressively; monster figures (112 high). Speed to lead; handles firm. Favorite material.

PP 4: Angelic Appeal (IRE) (3yo filly, by Siyouni – dam not specified)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (leading rider, 24% win rate). Trainer: Philip D’Amato (turf guru, 21% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 4th (78) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (80) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 2nd (85) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 1st (82) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: European-bred stepping up; D’Amato’s filly has closing kick. Hernandez patient; lower figures but improving. Soft turf suits pedigree; value underneath.

PP 5: Willa T (3yo filly, by Oscar Performance – dam not specified)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (versatile, 18% win rate). Trainer: Tim Yakteen (consistent, 17% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (100) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 2nd (98) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 3rd (96) at SA Trial (10/18/2025, 6f turf); 4th (94) at DMR MSW (9/1/2025, 5f turf); Debut.
Analysis: Recent maiden winner; Yakteen’s charge tactical. Kimura stalks; solid figures (100 peak). Firm turf ideal; playable if trip favors.

PP 6: Kiss Sienna (ARG) (3yo filly, by Fortify – dam not specified)
Jockey: Victor Espinoza (Hall of Famer, 20% win rate). Trainer: Marcelo Polanco (underrated, 16% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (110) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6.5f turf downhill); 1st (108) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 2nd (105) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (103) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: Argentine import with win streak; Polanco’s filly sharp. Espinoza’s experience key; high figures (110 peak). Closer; soft okay. Contender.

PP 7: Take A Breath (GB) (3yo colt, by Bated Breath – dam not specified)
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo (aggressive, 15% win rate). Trainer: Mark Glatt (SA specialist, 18% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (94) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (92) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 1st (95) at SA Trial (10/5/2025, 6f turf); 4th (90) at DMR MSW (8/10/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: British-bred placer; Glatt’s charge consistent. Jaramillo presses; figures steady. Mid-pack; value if rebounds.

PP 8: Starts Now (3yo colt, by Mucho Macho Man – dam not specified)
Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira (reliable, 15% win rate). Trainer: Richard Baltas (consistent, 17% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (98) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 4th (96) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 2nd (99) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 1st (97) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Debut.
Analysis: Recent board-hitter; Baltas’s colt improving. Pereira closes; solid figures. Wet potential; longshot.

PP 9: Crazy Cami (3yo filly, by Audible – dam not specified)
Jockey: Kyle Frey (versatile, 16% win rate). Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (stakes specialist, 19% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 4th (89) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 5th (87) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 3rd (90) at SA Trial (10/18/2025, 6f turf); 2nd (88) at DMR MSW (9/1/2025, 5f turf); Debut.
Analysis: Placer stepping up; McCarthy’s filly tactical. Frey stalks; lower figures but potential. Soft suits; exotics filler.

PP 10: Resolve (3yo colt, by Midnight Lute – dam not specified)
Jockey: Hector Isaac Berrios (aggressive, 17% win rate). Trainer: Leonard Powell (consistent, 16% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (94) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 1st (96) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 4th (92) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (90) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Debut.
Analysis: Recent maiden winner; Powell’s colt sharp. Berrios presses; solid figures. Wide draw hurts; playable if trip clean.

Venue and Race Overview

The Grade III La Canada Stakes is set to take place at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California, USA. This historic venue, often called “The Great Race Place,” features a one-mile dirt oval and a turf course, known for its picturesque setting against the San Gabriel Mountains and its role in major events like the Breeders’ Cup. The race is scheduled for Saturday, January 24, 2026, with a post time of 4:04 PM PT (7:04 PM ET). This G3 stakes is for fillies and mares aged 4 years and up, contested over 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. The purse is $100,000, with weights ranging from 124 lbs. (base) and allowances for non-winners. It’s a two-turn route that rewards tactical speed and stamina, often a prep for higher-level stakes like the Santa Margarita or Apple Blossom, and named after the La Canada Valley. The field includes a strong Bob Baffert contingent, adding intrigue to this winter classic.

Expected Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for January 24, 2026, in Arcadia calls for partly cloudy skies with a high temperature around 66-72°F and a low dipping to 49-54°F. Winds will be from the west at 5.4 mph, with humidity at 52% and a chance of precipitation around 4.7 mm (0.2 inches), potentially in the form of scattered showers. If rain occurs, the dirt track could turn good or sloppy, favoring horses with proven wet-track form and potentially slowing the pace. Otherwise, expect a fast surface, typical for Santa Anita’s winter dirt, which often benefits inside speed but plays fair in routes. Track bias may favor stalkers if sealed due to moisture; monitor updates as the cold front could influence conditions.

Field Analysis

A compact field of 6 fillies and mares enters this G3, mixing Baffert-trained contenders, consistent veterans, and improving types. Key considerations include dirt route form, speed figures (Beyer equivalents noted), and class drops. Bob Baffert saddles three, adding barn strength. Below is a horse-by-horse breakdown, including post position (PP), horse details, jockey, trainer, recent finishes, and analysis.

PP 1: The Old Nine (IRE) (5yo mare, by Oasis Dream – Nine Days)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (up-and-coming, 18% win rate). Trainer: Jesus Periban (solid with mares, 15% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (98) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (100) at DMR Allow (11/22/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 3rd (96) at SA LS (10/18/2025, 1m dirt); 4th (94) at DMR Stakes (8/10/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (99) at SA Allow (7/5/2025, 1m dirt).
Analysis: Irish import with steady U.S. form, including a recent allowance win stretching out. Periban’s barn is consistent; Kimura saves ground from rail. Figures in 100 range competitive; proven router. Handles fast dirt; untested in sloppy but pedigree suggests adaptability. Value if duplicates peak effort.

PP 2: Bluegrass Go Go (KY) (6yo mare, by Into Mischief – Bluegrass Special)
Jockey: Geovanni Franco (reliable, 16% win rate). Trainer: Steve Knapp (underrated, 17% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (95) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (97) at DMR Allow (11/15/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 2nd (94) at SA LS (10/10/2025, 1m dirt); 4th (92) at DMR Stakes (8/5/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (96) at SA Allow (7/20/2025, 1m dirt).
Analysis: Kentucky-bred grinder with local wins; Knapp’s mare consistent at allowance level. Franco presses pace; figures steady. Stalker benefits from honest fractions; handles off tracks (muddy SA placing). Longshot for minors if Baffert trio falters.

PP 3: Brilliantly (4yo filly, by Practical Joke – Brilliant Jewel)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (elite, 23% win rate). Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer, 28% in graded stakes). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (105) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (103) at DMR Allow (11/22/2025, 1m dirt); 2nd (100) at SA Stakes (10/5/2025, 1m dirt); 3rd (98) at DMR LS (8/10/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (102) at SA MSW (7/5/2025, 7f dirt).
Analysis: Lightly raced improver on a three-race win streak; Baffert’s rising star with tactical speed. Prat’s patient ride fits; high figures (105 peak). Proven at SA (multiple wins); unproven in sloppy but pedigree okay. Morning-line favorite with barn support.

PP 4: Nafisa (4yo filly, by Munnings – Nafisa’s Star)
Jockey: Juan Hernandez (leading rider, 24% win rate). Trainer: Bob Baffert (see above). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (102) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (104) at DMR Allow (11/15/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (101) at SA MSW (10/10/2025, 7f dirt); 3rd (98) at DMR Trial (8/20/2025, 6.5f dirt); Layoff prior.
Analysis: Baffert’s second entrant, sharp off maiden win and allowance score. Hernandez stalks effectively; rising figures (104 high). Versatile; wet track potential per muddy DMR effort. Co-contender in barn trio.

PP 5: Ooty (ARG) (5yo mare, by Dabster – Olinka)
Jockey: Tiago Pereira (reliable, 15% win rate). Trainer: Bob Baffert (see above). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (99) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1m dirt); 2nd (101) at DMR Stakes (11/22/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (103) at SA Allow (10/18/2025, 1m dirt); 4th (98) at DMR LS (8/10/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (100) at ARG Import (6/15/2025, 1 1/8m dirt).
Analysis: Argentine import with U.S. stakes placings; Baffert’s third. Pereira closes; solid figures (103 peak). Stamina from pedigree; handles sloppy (muddy ARG win). Upset chance if trip favors.

PP 6: Fugitive Star (KY) (5yo mare, by Star Guitar – Fugitive Angel)
Jockey: Antonio Fresu (up-and-coming, 17% win rate). Trainer: Jorge Becerra (consistent, 14% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 4th (96) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1m dirt); 3rd (98) at DMR Allow (11/15/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 2nd (95) at SA LS (10/10/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (97) at DMR Allow (8/5/2025, 1m dirt); 5th (92) at SA Stakes (7/20/2025, 1m dirt).
Analysis: Steady allowance type stepping up; Becerra’s mare hits board often. Fresu rallies; figures modest but consistent. Closer needs pace meltdown; wet track okay. Extreme longshot.

Venue and Race Overview

The Grade III John B. Connally Turf Cup Stakes is scheduled at Sam Houston Race Park in Houston, Texas, USA (7575 North Sam Houston Parkway West, Houston, TX 77064). This Class 1 racetrack features a one-mile dirt oval and a turf course, with this event on the turf. Sam Houston is known for its winter Thoroughbred meet and events like the Houston Racing Festival, where this race anchors the turf action alongside the Houston Ladies Classic. The race is set for Saturday, January 24, 2026, as Race 12 on a 12-race card, with a post time of 6:20 PM CT (card begins at 1:00 PM CT). This G3 stakes is for horses aged 4 years and up, contested over 1 1/2 miles on the turf. The purse is $200,000, with weights of 118-126 lbs. based on allowances (non-winners of G1/G2 in 2025-26 allowed 2-4 lbs.). It’s a marathon turf test that rewards stamina and closing ability, often favoring veterans with proven long-distance form, and named after former Texas Governor John B. Connally.

Expected Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for January 24, 2026, in Houston indicates a cold, rainy day with overcast skies, a high of 54-57°F, and a low around 36°F. Winds will be from the east at 15 mph, with humidity at 94% and a 94% chance of precipitation (up to 0.1 inches, possibly including light freezing rain later in the evening). The turf course is likely to turn soft or yielding due to the steady rain, favoring horses with proven off-turf form or European pedigrees that handle moisture. If precipitation persists into post time, expect a downgrade, potentially leading to scratches for firm-turf specialists; otherwise, it may play as good, benefiting patient closers in this marathon.

Field AnalysisA

 full field of 12 veteran turf routers lines up for this G3, including multiple graded winners and shippers. Key factors include stamina over the 1 1/2-mile trip, turf figures (Beyer equivalents noted), and adaptability to soft ground. Jonathan Thomas enters the probable favorite Truly Quality, while trainers like Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox add depth. Below is a detailed breakdown by post position (PP), including horse details, jockey, trainer, recent finishes (last 5 with dates, tracks, positions, distances, surfaces, and figures), and analysis.

PP 1: Truly Quality (6yo horse, by Quality Road – Truly Together)
Jockey: Manny Franco (versatile, 16% win rate). Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (strong with turfers, 20% win rate). Weight: 126 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (114) at DMR Hollywood Turf Cup G2 (11/24/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 1st (112) at DMR Hollywood Turf Cup G2 (11/26/2024, 1 1/2m turf); 2nd (110) at SA San Luis Rey S. G3 (3/23/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 3rd (108) at GP Mac Diarmida S. G2 (3/2/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 1st (111) at BEL Knickerbocker S. G3 (10/15/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Dual Hollywood Turf Cup winner and field leader; Thomas’s charge excels at marathon distances with a powerful late kick. Franco replaces prior riders; top figures (114 peak). Proven on yielding turf (muddy Belmont effort); rail draw aids ground-saving. The one to beat if duplicates California form.

PP 2: Sugoi (6yo horse, by Karakontie – Awesome Flower)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (local ace, 22% win rate). Trainer: Mark E. Casse (versatile, 22% in stakes). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (110) at GP Fort Lauderdale S. G2T (12/13/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 2nd (107) at BEL Knickerbocker S. G3T (10/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 3rd (105) at SAR Fourstardave H. G1T (8/10/2025, 1m turf); 4th (102) at GP Allow (3/1/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 1st (108) at CD Allow (11/15/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Gulfstream specialist off a sharp Fort Lauderdale win; Casse’s charge has tactical speed. Gaffalione knows the course; solid figures. Handles firm; value stalker if turf softens.

PP 3: Bal Harbour (5yo gelding, by First Samurai – Harbour Cat)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado (versatile, 15% win rate). Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. (local hot hand, 21% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (106) at GP Allow (12/26/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (108) at BEL Alwoc (10/15/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 2nd (105) at SAR Allow (8/5/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 4th (102) at GP Stakes (3/15/2025, 1m turf); 1st (107) at TAM Allow (11/10/2024, 1 1/16m turf).
Analysis: Improving local with consistent board hits; Joseph’s barn firing. Alvarado presses; good figures. Firm turf best; handles off from Tampa effort. Exotics if pace honest.

PP 4: Catnip (7yo horse, by Kitten’s Joy – Bye Bye Baby (IRE))
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (Hall of Famer, 25% win rate). Trainer: Michael Stidham (turf specialist, 19% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (112) at CD Wise Dan S. G2T (6/15/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 2nd (109) at KEE Maker’s Mark Mile G1T (4/10/2025, 1m turf); 3rd (106) at GP Fort Lauderdale G2T (12/13/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (110) at SAR Fourstardave G1T (8/10/2025, 1m turf); 4th (104) at CD Turf Mile G2T (10/5/2024, 1m turf).
Analysis: G1 winner with Midwest form; Stidham ships confidently. Velazquez’s finesse fits closer; high figures. Versatile; live if turf softens.

PP 5: Webslinger (6yo gelding, by Constitution – Arana)
Jockey: Javier Castellano (Hall of Famer, 21% win rate). Trainer: Mark E. Casse (see above). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (111) at BEL Manhattan S. G1T (6/8/2025, 1 1/4m turf); 2nd (108) at AQU Red Smith G2T (11/15/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 3rd (106) at SAR Sword Dancer G1T (8/25/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 4th (103) at GP Pegasus Turf G1T (1/25/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (109) at CD Allow (10/10/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: G1 victor cutting back; Casse’s second. Castellano rallies; strong figures. Proven closer; contender on class.

PP 6: Ramblin’ Wreck (5yo gelding, by Arrogate – Wrecking Crew)
Jockey: Luis Saez (aggressive, 24% win rate). Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (Hall of Famer, 25% in G1s). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (107) at GP Allow (12/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (109) at BEL Knickerbocker G3T (10/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 3rd (105) at SAR Allow (8/15/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 1st (108) at GP MSW (3/10/2025, 1m turf); 4th (102) at SAR MSW (8/5/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Lightly raced improver; Pletcher’s touch. Saez presses; rising figures. Firm suits; upset if matures.

PP 7: Master Piece (CHI) (8yo horse, by Mastercraftsman (IRE) – Trampoli)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli (finisher, 18% win rate). Trainer: Philip D’Amato (West Coast turf guru, 21% win rate). Weight: 126 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (114) at SA Shoemaker Mile G1T (5/26/2025, 1m turf); 2nd (111) at DMR Seabiscuit H. G2T (11/29/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 1st (116) at SA San Marcos S. G2T (2/1/2025, 1 1/4m turf); 3rd (109) at GP Fort Lauderdale G2T (12/13/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (113) at SA Allow (10/10/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Chilean import with G1 wins; D’Amato’s star shipper. Rispoli closes; top figures (116 high). Handles firm; major threat.

PP 8: Grand Sonata (7yo horse, by Medaglia d’Oro – Gift List (GB))
Jockey: Manuel Franco (aggressive, 16% win rate). Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (see above). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (106) at AQU Cigar Mile G2 (12/7/2025, 1m dirt, but turf preference); 1st (108) at BEL Turf Classic Inv. LS (10/5/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 2nd (105) at SAR Bernard Baruch H. LS (8/25/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 4th (102) at GP Allow (3/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (107) at CD Allow (11/15/2024, 1 1/16m turf).
Analysis: Versatile with NY form; Pletcher’s second. Franco stalks; solid figures. Prefers firm; exotics.

PP 9: Far Bridge (6yo horse, by English Channel – Fitpitcher)
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (versatile, 20% win rate). Trainer: Christophe Clement (turf expert, 20% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (110) at BEL Man o’ War S. G1T (5/11/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 2nd (107) at AQU Red Smith G2T (11/15/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 3rd (105) at SAR Sword Dancer G1T (8/25/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 4th (102) at GP Pegasus Turf G1T (1/25/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 1st (108) at KEE Allow (10/10/2024, 1 1/4m turf).
Analysis: G1 winner stretching legs; Clement’s charge. Ortiz presses; strong figures. Firm turf suits; live.

PP 10: Get Smokin (7yo gelding, by Get Stormy – Hookah Lady)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (leading, 28% win rate). Trainer: Chad C. Brown (turf master, 24% in G1s). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (109) at GP Fort Lauderdale G2T (12/13/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 2nd (106) at BEL Knickerbocker G3T (10/20/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 3rd (104) at SAR Fourstardave G1T (8/10/2025, 1m turf); 4th (101) at GP Allow (3/1/2025, 1 1/16m turf); 1st (107) at CD Allow (11/15/2024, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: Local hero off Fort Lauderdale win; Brown’s veteran. Ortiz maximizes; solid figures. Speedy; value if leads.

PP 11: O’Connor (IRE) (8yo horse, by Churchill – Dream Of The Hill)
Jockey: Ryan Moore (international star, 25% win rate in U.S.). Trainer: Aidan P. O’Brien (legendary, 30% in G1s). Weight: 126 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (113) at CUR Irish Champion S. G1T (9/14/2025, 1 1/4m turf); 1st (116) at BEL Belmont Derby Inv. G1T (7/6/2025, 1 1/4m turf); 3rd (110) at ASC King George VI & Queen Elizabeth S. G1 (7/27/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 1st (114) at CD Turf Classic S. G1T (5/4/2025, 1 1/8m turf); 2nd (111) at GP Pegasus Turf G1T (1/25/2025, 1 1/8m turf).
Analysis: European powerhouse with G1 placings; O’Brien ships for big prize. Moore’s mastery; elite figures (116 peak). Firm okay; co-favorite.

PP 12: Pioneer Spirit (6yo horse, by Pioneerof the Nile – Spirit Line)
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettori (legend, 22% win rate). Trainer: Steve Asmussen (top barn, 25% in graded stakes). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (107) at CD Stakes (12/20/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 1st (109) at KEE Allow (11/15/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 2nd (106) at ELP Stakes (10/10/2025, 1 1/2m turf); 4th (103) at CD Allow (9/20/2025, 1 3/8m turf); 1st (108) at OP Stakes (3/10/2025, 1 1/2m turf).
Analysis: Stakes winner in form; Asmussen’s charge. Dettori closes; strong figures (109 peak). Proven on yielding; wide draw okay for closer.