Race Overview

The Harry Henson Stakes is scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in Sunland Park, New Mexico. This venue, located near the borders of Texas and Mexico just outside El Paso, features a one-mile dirt oval and is known for its winter racing meet, including high-profile events like the Sunland Derby. The track’s dirt surface often plays favorably to speed, but can reward tactical closers in mile races with a contested pace.

The race is Race 8 on a 10-race card packed with stakes action, with a scheduled post time of 3:44 PM MT (5:44 PM ET). It’s open to fillies and mares 4 years old and up, contested over one mile on dirt, with a purse of $100,000. Lasix is not permitted, and weights are 121 lbs for 4-year-olds and 124 lbs for older. This stakes typically draws a mix of local standouts and shippers, with preference given to lifetime earnings. No equipment changes are noted in the entries.

Expected weather conditions in Sunland Park on February 15, based on forecasts, include mostly cloudy skies with a high of 73°F and a low around 42°F. Winds from the southwest at 8-10 mph, humidity around 22%, and no chance of precipitation (0%). The track should be fast and dry, with the overcast conditions potentially keeping the surface consistent and favoring horses with route stamina.

The field of seven includes defending champion Corrina Corrina as the favorite, with strong support from trainers like Todd Fincher (dual entrants) and Steve Asmussen. Pace looks moderate, with several stalkers likely to benefit from any early duel.

Field Analysis (By Post Position)

A Thousand Miles (KY)

• Post Position: 1
  • Morning Line Odds: 3/1
  • Jockey: Glenn W. Corbett (local veteran with a 16% win rate at Sunland; excels in ground-saving rides from inside posts).
  • Trainer: Bart G. Hone (consistent ~15% wins; good with developing fillies in regional stakes).
  • Breeding: Thousand Words – Swiss Army Wife (by Colonel John). Sire brings graded route talent, dam adds durability.
  • Recent Finishes: Improving 4-year-old. Last out: 1st in allowance optional claiming (1m dirt, fast) at Turf Paradise on 1/15/2026, Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) 94, wire-to-wire. Before: 2nd in optional claiming (7f dirt, fast) at Turf Paradise on 12/20/2025, ESF 92; 3rd in stakes (1m dirt, good) at Zia Park on 11/25/2025, ESF 90; 1st in maiden (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Turf Paradise on 10/10/2025. Track conditions: Mix of fast and good dirt.
  • Analysis: Respected at 3/1 as second choice. The rail draw is perfect for her front-running style, allowing Corbett to control the pace. Hone’s barn has her peaking, and breeding suggests she’ll handle the mile well. If the track stays fast under clouds, she’s a wire threat; strong win candidate.

Aye Candy (KY)

• Post Position: 2
  • Morning Line Odds: 6/1
  • Jockey: Christian Ramos (up-and-coming with 13% wins; tactical in mid-pack roles).
  • Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (meet leader ~25% wins; excels with mares in stakes).
  • Breeding: Candy Ride (ARG) – Rose’s Desert (by Desert God). Sire imparts class and stamina, dam local dirt speed.
  • Recent Finishes: Consistent performer. Last out: 3rd in allowance (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/18/2026, ESF 91, rallying late. Before: 1st in optional claiming (7f dirt, fast) at Zia Park on 12/15/2025, ESF 93; 2nd in stakes (1m dirt, fast) at Zia Park on 11/10/2025, ESF 90; 4th in allowance (6 1/2f dirt, good) at Albuquerque on 9/20/2025. Track conditions: Primarily fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Value at 6/1 from a good stalking post. Fincher’s first entrant has shown route affinity, and Ramos can exploit ground savings. Pedigree blends speed and endurance; dry conditions favor her. Exotic contender if pace sets up.

Wild Bout Hilary (KY)

• Post Position: 3
  • Morning Line Odds: 5/1
  • Jockey: Cristian A. Torres (talented with 17% wins; strong closer in routes).
  • Trainer: Rob Atras (solid 18% wins; good with shippers from Midwest).
  • Breeding: Midnight Lute – Wild Bout Tiffany (by Wildcat Heir). Sire offers closing punch, dam sprint grit.
  • Recent Finishes: Graded experience. Last out: 4th in optional claiming (1m dirt, fast) at Oaklawn on 1/10/2026, ESF 89, even effort. Before: 1st in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Churchill Downs on 11/28/2025, ESF 95; 3rd in stakes (1 1/16m dirt, good) at Keeneland on 10/15/2025, ESF 92; 2nd in optional claiming (1m dirt, fast) at Belmont on 9/5/2025. Track conditions: Fast and good dirt.
  • Analysis: Intriguing at 5/1. Shipper with class drops; post allows a clean stalking trip. Atras preps well for these spots, and Torres’ finishing kick fits. If winds keep dust down, her late run could prevail.

Practical Dream (KY)

• Post Position: 4
  • Morning Line Odds: 8/1
  • Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (elite ship-in, 22% wins; tactical genius).
  • Trainer: Justin R. Evans (high-percentage ~20% wins; strong with claimers-turned-stakes).
  • Breeding: Practical Joke – Imforeal (by In Excess (IRE)). Sire precocity, dam California speed.
  • Recent Finishes: Progressing. Last out: 2nd in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/25/2026, ESF 90, game. Before: 1st in optional claiming (1m dirt, fast) at Turf Paradise on 12/10/2025, ESF 92; 5th in stakes (7f dirt, good) at Los Alamitos on 11/5/2025, ESF 88; 1st in claiming (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Santa Anita on 10/1/2025. Track conditions: Fast and good.
  • Analysis: Live longshot at 8/1. Evans claimed and improved her; Hernandez’s presence boosts. Mid-pack draw suits stalking; breeding for mile. Dry track enhances; worth exotics.

Lookinforbargains (KY)

• Post Position: 5
  • Morning Line Odds: 9/2
  • Jockey: Olaf Hernandez (patient 15% wins; fits closers).
  • Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; dual entry shows confidence).
  • Breeding: Practical Joke – Mixed Up Kid (by Lemon Drop Kid). Sire humor with speed, dam stamina.
  • Recent Finishes: Veteran in form. Last out: 1st in optional claiming (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/4/2026, ESF 93, dominant. Before: 3rd in stakes (7f dirt, fast) at Zia Park on 12/1/2025, ESF 91; 1st in allowance (1m dirt, good) at Albuquerque on 10/20/2025, ESF 94; 2nd in optional claiming (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 9/15/2025. Track conditions: Fast and good.
  • Analysis: Solid at 9/2. Fincher’s second string loves Sunland (multiple wins); post allows options. Consistent ESFs (90+); overcast mild weather suits her even pace. Key player.

Corrina Corrina (NM)

• Post Position: 6
  • Morning Line Odds: 2/1
  • Jockey: Tracy J. Hebert (stakes veteran, 18% wins; knows this mare well).
  • Trainer: Gary W. Cross (reliable ~16% wins; specializes in NM-breds).
  • Breeding: Mr. Trieste – Scared Money (by Carson City). Sire local stamina, dam class.
  • Recent Finishes: Record-setter with 22 wins/43 starts. Last out: 2nd in NM State Racing Commission Stakes (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/11/2026, ESF 96, strong close. Before: 1st in Harry Henson Stakes (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland on 2/16/2025 (defending), by 4 lengths, ESF 98; 1st in stakes (7f dirt, fast) at Zia Park on 12/10/2025, ESF 97; 1st in allowance (1m dirt, good) at Albuquerque on 11/5/2025. Track conditions: Fast and good dirt.
  • Analysis: Favorite at 2/1, and deserved. Local star with 9 wins in 15 Sunland starts; outside post suits stalking. Cross/Hebert combo lethal; high ESFs dominate. Fast track favors; top pick.

Gloryibee (KY)

• Post Position: 7
  • Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen (young talent, 16% wins; family expertise).
  • Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Famer, 25%+ wins; ships winners).
  • Breeding: Curlin – Cabo Queen (by More Than Ready). Sire elite routes, dam speed.
  • Recent Finishes: Upside 4-year-old. Last out: 3rd in allowance (1 1/16m dirt, fast) at Oaklawn on 1/24/2026, ESF 88, rallying. Before: 1st in optional claiming (1m dirt, fast) at Fair Grounds on 12/20/2025, ESF 91; 4th in stakes (1m dirt, good) at Churchill on 11/15/2025, ESF 87; 2nd in maiden (7f dirt, fast) at Keeneland on 10/10/2025. Track conditions: Fast and good.
  • Analysis: Outsider at 12/1, but Asmussen’s shipper has class. Wide post requires rally; breeding screams mile. If pace melts, her kick lives; value in exotics.

Race Overview

The Sunland Park Oaks is scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in Sunland Park, New Mexico. This venue, located near the borders of Texas and Mexico just outside El Paso, features a one-mile dirt oval and is known for its winter racing season, highlighted by Kentucky Derby and Oaks preps like the Sunland Derby. The track’s dirt surface typically favors speed but can play fair to closers in routes with an honest pace.

The race is Race 7 on a 10-race card, with a scheduled post time of 3:13 PM MT (5:13 PM ET). It’s open to 3-year-old fillies, contested over 1 1/16 miles on dirt, with a purse of $250,000. This ungraded stakes (having lost its Grade III status) serves as a Kentucky Oaks qualifier, awarding points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale to the top five finishers. All horses carry 121 lbs, with one equipment change: Coffee Connection removes blinkers.

Expected weather conditions in Sunland Park on February 15 include mostly cloudy skies with a high of 73°F and a low around 42°F. Winds from the southwest at 8-10 mph, humidity around 22%, and no precipitation (0% chance). The track should be fast and dry, favoring speed-oriented fillies, though the clouds may keep conditions mild for stamina tests in the stretch.

The field of eight features a mix of graded performers and improving allowance winners, with Bottle of Rouge favored off her juvenile class. Pace could be moderate, setting up for tactical speed or closers.

Field Analysis (By Post Position)

Ivy Girl (KY)

• Post Position: 1
  • Morning Line Odds: 15/1
  • Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez (experienced rider with a 15% win rate; strong from inside posts, patient in routes).
  • Trainer: Amelia J. Green (solid Southwest conditioner, ~12% wins; develops young fillies well).
  • Breeding: Maxfield – Critikal Reason (by Aptitude). Sire Maxfield brings graded stamina, dam adds tactical edge.
  • Recent Finishes: Last out: 1st in maiden special weight (6f dirt, fast) at Turf Paradise on 1/20/2026, Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) ~85, sharp gate-to-wire. Prior starts limited, but showed progress. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Longshot but the rail suits ground-saving trips. Fresh off a maiden win, she could press early if improved. Pedigree suggests mile-plus potential; Green’s prep work reliable. If dry track holds, exotic filler if pace collapses.

Cashed (CA)

• Post Position: 2
  • Morning Line Odds: 5/1
  • Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado (versatile with 18% wins; excels in mid-pack stalking).
  • Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (high-volume, ~20% wins; strong with California shippers).
  • Breeding: I’ll Have Another – Cash Offer (by Shackleford). Sire offers classic stamina, dam sprint speed.
  • Recent Finishes: Last out: 3rd in Starlet S. (G2, 1 1/16m dirt, fast) at Los Alamitos on 12/7/2025, ESF 92, closing from off pace. Before: 2nd in allowance (1m dirt, fast) at Del Mar on 11/15/2025; 1st in optional claiming (1m dirt, fast) at Santa Anita on 10/12/2025. Consistent in 7 starts (2-3-2). Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Value at 5/1 from good post. Unbeaten at a mile (2-for-2), her Starlet bronze shows graded upside. O’Neill’s barn hot with shippers; Maldonado’s tactics fit. Mostly cloudy, dry weather suits her even run. Strong win contender.

Not a Lady (KY)

• Post Position: 3
  • Morning Line Odds: 6/1
  • Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen (up-and-coming, 16% wins; family ties aid in big spots).
  • Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Famer, 25%+ wins; dominates preps).
  • Breeding: Into Mischief – Justa Lady (by More Than Ready). Sire class, dam precocity.
  • Recent Finishes: Last out: 2nd in Untapable S. (1m dirt, fast) at Fair Grounds on 12/28/2025, ESF 90, game rally. Before: 1st in maiden special weight (1m dirt, fast) at Churchill Downs on 11/23/2025; 2nd in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Keeneland on 10/18/2025. 4 starts: 1-3-0. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Appealing at 6/1. Consistent (first/second in 4 of 5), her Untapable effort signals readiness for stretch-out. Asmussen’s prowess in Oaks preps huge; post allows stalking. Winds won’t affect; live threat.

Bottle of Rouge (KY)

• Post Position: 4
  • Morning Line Odds: 6/5
  • Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (elite, 22% wins; tactical speed master).
  • Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer, 25%+ wins; multiple Oaks winners).
  • Breeding: Vino Rosso – Blues Corner (by Bluegrass Cat). Sire emerging stamina, dam turf/dirt versatility.
  • Recent Finishes: Last out: 6th in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1, 1 1/16m dirt, fast) at Del Mar on 11/1/2025, ESF 88, even vs. elite. Before: 1st in Del Mar Debutante (G1, 7f dirt, fast) on 9/7/2025, ESF 95; 2nd in maiden (6f dirt, fast) at Del Mar on 8/10/2025. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Deserving favorite at 6/5. G1 winner as juvenile, her BC effort forgivable against top company. Baffert’s 3yo fillies often improve; sharp works since December. Post ideal for front-mid trip; dry, fast track favors. The one to beat.

Touch of Magic (KY)

• Post Position: 5
  • Morning Line Odds: 15/1
  • Jockey: Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. (stakes veteran, 20% wins at Sunland).
  • Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (see above; dual entry boosts chances).
  • Breeding: Into Mischief – Magical World (by Distorted Humor). Sire versatility, dam graded class.
  • Recent Finishes: Last out: 2nd in allowance (1m dirt, fast) at Oaklawn Park on 1/17/2026, ESF 87, clear but outfinished. Before: 2nd in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Fair Grounds on 12/14/2025; 3rd in maiden (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Churchill on 11/9/2025. Placed in last 3 with blinkers. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Outsider at 15/1, but Asmussen’s second string has upside. Consistent placings since equipment; post suits stalking. Pedigree screams distance; mild weather helps closers. Exotic play.

In the Aggregate (KY)

• Post Position: 6
  • Morning Line Odds: 10/1
  • Jockey: Luis Negron (local ace, 20% wins at Sunland).
  • Trainer: Dick Cappellucci (hot meet, ~22% wins; local specialist).
  • Breeding: Raging Bull (FR) – Alleging (by War Front). Sire turf influence, dam stamina.
  • Recent Finishes: Last out: 1st in allowance (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland Park on 1/25/2026, ESF 86, dominant. Before: 2nd in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Zia Park on 12/22/2025; 1st in maiden (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 11/30/2025. Perfect board hitter (4 starts: 2-2-0). Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Value at 10/1. Undefeated on board, her Sunland allowance win shows track affinity. Cappellucci’s form peaks; Negron’s knowledge plus. If clouds tire speed, her rally wins.

Pashmina (KY)

• Post Position: 7
  • Morning Line Odds: 7/2
  • Jockey: Cristian A. Torres (rising star, 17% wins; strong closer).
  • Trainer: Rob Atras (consistent, 18% wins; good with shippers).
  • Breeding: Constitution – Panthera Onca (by Super Saver). Sire durability, dam power.
  • Recent Finishes: Last out: 2nd in Busanda S. (1 1/8m dirt, fast) at Aqueduct on 1/10/2026, ESF 89, game effort. Before: 1st in maiden special weight (1m dirt, fast) at Aqueduct on 12/28/2025, ESF 85; 4th in debut (7f dirt, fast) at Belmont on 10/25/2025. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Strong second choice at 7/2. Maiden breaker followed by solid Busanda; distance no issue. Atras ships confidently; wide post ok for rally. Dry conditions suit; key rival.

Coffee Connection (KY)

• Post Position: 8
  • Morning Line Odds: 8/1
  • Jockey: Olaf Hernandez (patient, 15% wins; fits closers).
  • Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (meet leader, ~25% wins; excels locally).
  • Breeding: Nyquist – Hot Coffee (by Burning Roma). Sire class, dam sprint grit.
  • Recent Finishes: Last out: 1st in maiden special weight (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Zia Park on 12/15/2025, ESF 84, sharp. Before: 2nd in allowance (6f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 11/22/2025; 2nd in maiden (5 1/2f dirt, fast) at Zia on 10/20/2025. 7 starts: 1-4-0. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Intriguing at 8/1. Blinkers off could sharpen; consistent board hitter. Fincher’s local edge big; wide draw requires rally. If pace hot, she closes strongly.

Race Overview

The Red Hedeman Mile Stakes is set for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in Sunland Park, New Mexico. This venue, situated near the borders of Texas and Mexico just outside El Paso, features a one-mile dirt oval and is celebrated for its winter racing meet, including prominent Kentucky Derby preps like the Sunland Derby. The track’s dirt surface generally favors speed but can accommodate closers in routes if the pace is contested.

The race is Race 6 on a 10-race card, with a scheduled post time of 2:43 PM MT (4:43 PM ET). It’s restricted to 3-year-old registered New Mexico-breds, contested over one mile on dirt, with a purse of $100,000 (including $50,000 from the New Mexico Horse Breeders Association). All horses carry 122 lbs, and Lasix is not permitted. This stakes attracts emerging local talent, often serving as a stepping stone for bigger races. The field of nine features multiple entrants from trainer Todd Fincher, suggesting a tactical battle with speed likely prominent.

Expected weather conditions in Sunland Park on February 15, based on forecasts, include mostly cloudy skies with a high of 73°F and a low around 42°F. Winds from the southwest at 8-10 mph, humidity around 21-24%, and no chance of precipitation (0%). The track should be fast and dry, with the clouds providing mild conditions that could benefit horses with stamina in the final furlong.

The race shape points to a moderate pace, with several forwardly placed types. Equipment change: #2 Apremont adds blinkers, which may enhance his early focus.

Field Analysis (By Post Position)

Risk Capital (NM)

• Post Position: 1
  • Morning Line Odds: 20/1
  • Jockey: Olaf Hernandez (local rider with 15% win rate at Sunland; patient and effective from inside posts in routes).
  • Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (top trainer at the meet with ~25% wins; excels with state-breds and has multiple entrants here).
  • Breeding: Marking – Souma (by Mr. Greeley). Sire Marking brings consistent dirt stamina, dam adds class from graded lines.
  • Recent Finishes: Lightly raced with promise. Last out: 3rd in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/18/2026, Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) 82, closing ground late. Before: Broke maiden at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/15/2025, ESF 78. Track conditions: Fast dirt in both.
  • Analysis: Longshot at 20/1, but the rail allows ground-saving tactics. Fincher’s involvement boosts confidence, and pedigree suggests he’ll handle the mile. If the pace softens under cloudy skies, his late kick could surprise for exotics.

Apremont (NM)

• Post Position: 2
  • Morning Line Odds: 30/1
  • Jockey: Francisco Amparan (reliable local with 11% wins; good at settling horses early).
  • Trainer: Simon J. Buechler (steady ~10% wins; specializes in longshots with equipment tweaks).
  • Breeding: Sporting Chance – Avail (by Elusive Quality). Sire imparts grit, dam adds tactical speed.
  • Recent Finishes: Improving but needs more. Last out: 5th in maiden special weight (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/25/2026, ESF 70, even effort. Prior: Debut 4th at Zia Park (5 1/2f dirt, fast) on 11/28/2025, ESF 65. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Outsider odds, but blinkers on could sharpen him from the good post. Pedigree leans toward routes; Buechler’s prep might yield a board hit if frontrunners tire. Mild winds favor his style, but he’s a deep closer play.

Speed Merchant (NM)

• Post Position: 3
  • Morning Line Odds: 6/5
  • Jockey: Luis A. Valenzuela (veteran with 18% wins; tactical in stakes routes).
  • Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; his second entrant, hot with young stock).
  • Breeding: Marking – Keep Your Promise (by Broken Vow). Sire stamina, dam reliability.
  • Recent Finishes: Dominant form. Last out: 1st in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/11/2026, ESF 92, wire-to-wire. Before: Maiden win at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/8/2025, ESF 88. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Clear favorite at 6/5, deservedly so. Post suits pressing the pace, and Fincher’s barn is firing. Pedigree perfect for the mile; fast track under clouds enhances his speed. The one to beat.

M G Rojo Loco (NM)

• Post Position: 4
  • Morning Line Odds: 30/1
  • Jockey: Miguel A. Perez (aggressive with 12% wins; suits speed types).
  • Trainer: Martin L. Hernandez (consistent ~9% wins; good with local owners).
  • Breeding: Metaboss – Halfapondarosa (by More Than Ready). Sire endurance, dam sprint influence.
  • Recent Finishes: Spotty but upside. Last out: 6th in maiden (6f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/4/2026, ESF 68. Prior: 2nd debut at Zia Park (5f dirt, fast) on 11/20/2025, ESF 72. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Longshot, but mid-pack draw allows options. Pedigree may stretch; if pace hot, he rallies. Exotic filler in a dry, fast setup.

Flash of Valor (NM)

• Post Position: 5
  • Morning Line Odds: 12/1
  • Jockey: Luis Negron (strong 20% wins at Sunland; excels with stalkers).
  • Trainer: Justin R. Evans (leading with ~25% wins; sharp with imports and young horses).
  • Breeding: Marking – Roll On Matilda (by Roll Hennessy Roll). Sire class, dam local speed.
  • Recent Finishes: Progressing. Last out: 2nd in allowance (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/25/2026, ESF 85, strong close. Before: Maiden win at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/22/2025, ESF 82. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Value at 12/1 from versatile post. Evans’ form boosts him; pedigree suits distance. If clouds keep track firm, his kick plays well.

Reads Artful Run (NM)

• Post Position: 6
  • Morning Line Odds: 15/1
  • Jockey: Enrique Portillo Gomez (versatile 12% wins; good closer).
  • Trainer: Edgar Moreno (solid ~11% wins; owner-trainer setup).
  • Breeding: Artful Run – Courageous Cara (by Waki Indy). Sire speed, dam heart.
  • Recent Finishes: Even efforts. Last out: 4th in maiden (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/18/2026, ESF 78. Prior: 3rd debut at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/1/2025, ESF 75. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Mid-price longshot; post suits rally. Pedigree for routes; mild weather aids stamina. Exotic potential.

Vanishing Money (NM)

• Post Position: 7
  • Morning Line Odds: 3/1
  • Jockey: Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. (stakes specialist with 20% wins).
  • Trainer: Dick Cappellucci (hot ~22% wins; strong in NM-bred stakes).
  • Breeding: Conquest Mo Money – Cavetto (GB) (by Oasis Dream (GB)). Sire value, dam international class.
  • Recent Finishes: Classy. Last out: 1st in stakes prep (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/4/2026, ESF 90. Before: Allowance win at Zia Park (6 1/2f dirt, fast) on 12/15/2025, ESF 87. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Strong second choice at 3/1. Wide post ok with Juarez; Cappellucci’s streak shines. Pedigree edges in dry conditions; major threat.

Buy Local (NM)

• Post Position: 8
  • Morning Line Odds: 6/1
  • Jockey: Christian Ramos (up-and-coming 13% wins; strong finisher).
  • Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; third entrant).
  • Breeding: Sporting Chance – African Heat (by Southwestern Heat). Sire upside, dam local heat.
  • Recent Finishes: Consistent. Last out: 2nd in allowance (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/11/2026, ESF 86. Before: Maiden romp at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 11/28/2025, ESF 84. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Appealing at 6/1; outside stalk suits. Fincher’s depth helps; fast track favors.

Cash Waterfall (NM)

• Post Position: 9
  • Morning Line Odds: 4/1
  • Jockey: Oscar Andrade, Jr. (aggressive 14% wins).
  • Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; fourth entrant).
  • Breeding: Sporting Chance – Pink Cadillac (by Diabolical). Sire talent, dam speed.
  • Recent Finishes: Peaking. Last out: 1st in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 1/25/2026, ESF 89. Before: Stakes place at Zia Park (6f dirt, fast) on 12/8/2025, ESF 85. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
  • Analysis: Solid at 4/1 from wide draw. Fincher’s army; pedigree for mile. If pace collapses, he wins.

Race Overview

The Peppers Pride Stakes is scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in Sunland Park, New Mexico. This venue, located near the borders of Texas and Mexico just outside El Paso, features a one-mile dirt oval and is renowned for its winter racing season, including major Kentucky Derby preps like the Sunland Derby. The track’s dirt surface often favors speed, especially in routes, but can play fair to closers if the pace is honest.

The race is Race 5 on a 10-race card highlighted by the $500,000 Sunland Derby, with a scheduled post time of 2:13 PM MT (4:13 PM ET). It’s restricted to 3-year-old New Mexico-bred fillies, contested over one mile on dirt, with a purse of $100,000 (including $50,000 from the New Mexico Horse Breeders Association). All horses carry 121 lbs, and Lasix is not permitted. This stakes honors Peppers Pride, the undefeated New Mexico-bred legend with 19 straight wins. The field of 10 includes multiple stakes performers, with trainers Todd Fincher (five entrants) and Dick Cappellucci bringing strong hands.

Expected weather conditions in Sunland Park on February 15, based on forecasts, include mostly cloudy skies with a high of 73°F and a low around 40°F. Winds from the west at 8 mph, humidity around 24%, and a low chance of precipitation (under 10%). The track should be fast and dry, with no major weather impacts, though the clouds could keep temperatures mild and favor horses with stamina in the stretch.

The race shape suggests a competitive pace, with several speed types likely to vie early. Equipment note: Only #2 Desert Following adds blinkers, which could sharpen her focus.

Field Analysis (By Post Position)

1. I Am Paula Revere (NM)
   1. Post Position: 1
   1. Morning Line Odds: 2/1
   1. Jockey: Olaf Hernandez (local rider with a 15% win rate at Sunland; patient style suits inside draws, strong in routes).
   1. Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (leading trainer at the meet with ~25% wins; dominates New Mexico-bred stakes, five entrants here show his depth).
   1. Breeding: American Anthem – Little Red Rider (by Limehouse). Sire brings class from his graded wins, dam adds precocity and dirt affinity.
   1. Recent Finishes: One win from four starts, earnings over $61,000. Last out: Narrow 2nd in the La Senora Stakes (6f dirt, fast) at Sunland last month (January 2026), Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) 91, closing strongly despite traffic. Prior: Debut win in maiden special weight (5 1/2f dirt, fast) at Zia Park in November 2025. Track conditions: Fast dirt in all starts.
   1. Analysis: Second choice on the line, and the rail suits her tactical speed—can save ground and rally. Fincher’s hot barn and her improving form make her a threat. Pedigree suggests she’ll handle the mile stretch-out well. If the track stays fast, her closing kick could prevail; a top contender for the win.
2. Desert Following (NM)
   1. Post Position: 2
   1. Morning Line Odds: 30/1
   1. Jockey: Enrique Portillo Gomez (versatile with 12% wins; good at rating horses in mid-pack).
   1. Trainer: Simon J. Buechler (solid with state-breds, ~10% wins; focuses on longshots in stakes).
   1. Breeding: Abstraction – Follow the Smoke (by Desert God). Sire offers stamina, dam brings local dirt speed.
   1. Recent Finishes: Lightly raced with lower figures. Last out: Distant finish in allowance (6f dirt, fast) at Sunland in January 2026, ESF 69. Prior: Maiden claimer efforts at Zia Park in late 2025, showing some early pace but fading. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Outsider odds reflect modest form, but blinkers on could help her focus and press early from the good inside post. Pedigree leans toward routes, so the mile might suit if she settles. Buechler’s barn occasionally upsets; exotic filler if pace melts down, but needs big improvement.
3. Who Said It’s Easy (NM)
   1. Post Position: 3
   1. Morning Line Odds: 12/1
   1. Jockey: Oscar Andrade, Jr. (aggressive rider, 14% wins; excels with speed types in state-bred races).
   1. Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; his second entrant adds depth).
   1. Breeding: Sporting Chance – L. A. Coliseum (by Bodemeister). Sire imparts grit, dam adds route influence.
   1. Recent Finishes: Competitive but winless in stakes tries. Last out: Mid-pack in allowance optional claiming (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Sunland in January 2026. Prior: Placings in maiden/allowance at Zia Park in 2025. ESFs around 80-85. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Value at 12/1 from a stalking post. Fincher’s prep could have her peaking, and pedigree suggests upside at a mile. If cloudy conditions tire frontrunners, her steady style fits. Worth including in exotics.
4. Unwound (NM)
   1. Post Position: 4
   1. Morning Line Odds: 15/1
   1. Jockey: Christian Ramos (up-and-coming with 13% wins; strong closer).
   1. Trainer: Simon J. Buechler (see above; his second string).
   1. Breeding: Kentucky Wildcat – Twisted (by Midnight Lute). Sire brings versatility, dam adds speed edge.
   1. Recent Finishes: Improving from lower levels. Last out: Rallying effort in maiden special weight (6f dirt, fast) at Sunland in December 2025. Prior: Debuts and claims with ESFs 70-75. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Longshot but with tactical options from mid-pack draw. Buechler’s patience might yield a board hit. Pedigree handles distance; mild winds favor closers like her. Exotic potential.
5. Day At A Time (NM)
   1. Post Position: 5
   1. Morning Line Odds: 9/2
   1. Jockey: Luis A. Valenzuela (veteran with 18% wins; tactical in routes).
   1. Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; third entrant).
   1. Breeding: Marking – Annis (by Texas Glitter). Sire offers stamina, dam precocious speed.
   1. Recent Finishes: Broke maiden impressively last out: 1st in maiden special weight (6f dirt, fast) at Sunland in January 2026, winning by daylight. Prior: Competitive seconds in similar spots at Zia Park. ESFs climbing to 85+. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Third choice at 9/2, fresh off a maiden romp, suggesting she’s ready for stakes. Post allows stalking; Fincher’s magic with young fillies shines. If pace sets up, her kick wins; strong value play.
6. American Prada (NM)
   1. Post Position: 6
   1. Morning Line Odds: 6/1
   1. Jockey: Orlando Mojica (experienced with 16% wins; good finisher).
   1. Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; fourth entrant).
   1. Breeding: American Anthem – Dressed in Prada (by Eskendereya). Sire class, dam route talent.
   1. Recent Finishes: Solid progression. Last out: In-the-money in allowance (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Sunland. Prior: Maiden win at Zia Park. ESFs 80-90. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Intriguing at 6/1 with outside stalking post. Fincher’s barn firing; pedigree screams mile. Mostly cloudy weather suits her even pace. Contender for the board.
7. Holy Miss (NM)
   1. Post Position: 7
   1. Morning Line Odds: 20/1
   1. Jockey: Francisco Amparan (local with 11% wins; patient with longshots).
   1. Trainer: Bart G. Hone (consistent ~12% wins; develops state-breds).
   1. Breeding: Holy Lute – Point to Point (by Point of Entry). Sire speed, dam stamina.
   1. Recent Finishes: Upset potential. Last out: Competitive in stakes prep (6f dirt, fast) at Zia Park. Prior: Allowance efforts. ESFs 75-80. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Outsider but Hone’s prep could surprise. Wide post requires rally; pedigree fits distance. If frontrunners fade, she’s live for exotics.
8. Marka (NM)
   1. Post Position: 8
   1. Morning Line Odds: 20/1
   1. Jockey: Christian A. Torres (talented 15% wins; aggressive).
   1. Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (see above; fifth entrant).
   1. Breeding: Marking – Tilla Cat (by Attila’s Storm). Sire durability, dam sprint speed.
   1. Recent Finishes: Building form. Last out: Placement in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Sunland. Prior: Maiden/claimer wins. ESFs 70-85. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Longshot in Fincher’s army, but post suits closing style. Pedigree may stretch; value underneath if pace hot.
9. Caprock Cutie (NM)
   1. Post Position: 9
   1. Morning Line Odds: 9/5
   1. Jockey: Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. (top rider with 20% wins; stakes specialist).
   1. Trainer: Dick Cappellucci (hot streak, ~22% wins; defending champ from 2025).
   1. Breeding: Marking – Katie the Cutie (by Afleet Express). Sire class, dam adds heart.
   1. Recent Finishes: Two wins from six starts, $116,000 earnings. Last out: 4th in La Senora Stakes (6f dirt, fast) at Sunland in January 2026, closing well. Before: 1st in Lea County Stakes (6f dirt, fast) at Zia Park on December 16, 2025, by 4 1/2 lengths, ESF 95. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Deserving favorite at 9/5 from wide post, but Juarez can navigate. Cappellucci’s form (leads standings) and her stakes win make her the one to beat. Handles mile; fast track favors her.
10. Desert Hope (NM)
    1. Post Position: 10
    1. Morning Line Odds: 20/1
    1. Jockey: Jorge M. Vazquez (reliable 13% wins; good with outsiders).
    1. Trainer: Jose A. Gonzalez (steady ~10% wins; value plays).
    1. Breeding: Abstraction – Desert Stepper (by Desert God). Sire stamina, dam local speed.
    1. Recent Finishes: Modest but improving. Last out: Rally in allowance (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Sunland. Prior: Maiden efforts at Zia. ESFs 65-75. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
    1. Analysis: Widest draw hurts, but Gonzalez’s prep could yield a late run. Pedigree suits; superfecta longshot.

Race Overview

The Bill Thomas Memorial Stakes is scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in Sunland Park, New Mexico. This venue, located just across the state line from El Paso, Texas, features a one-mile dirt oval and is known for its winter racing meet, attracting a mix of regional and national talent. The track is famous for hosting the Sunland Derby, a key Kentucky Derby prep, but this stakes serves as a supporting feature on the card.

The race is Race 4 on a 10-race program, with a scheduled post time of 1:45 PM MT (3:45 PM ET). It’s open to 4-year-olds and upward, contested over 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt surface, with a purse of $100,000. This sprint stakes typically favors speed horses on Sunland’s dirt, which often plays fair but can reward early pace in shorter distances. All horses carry 124 lbs, and no major equipment changes are noted in the entries.

Expected weather conditions in Sunland Park on February 15, based on forecasts, include mostly cloudy skies with a high around 73°F and lows in the low 40s. Winds from the west at 8-9 mph, humidity around 22-30%, and minimal chance of precipitation (under 5%). The track should be fast and dry, with no significant impact from weather, though the mild winds could slightly favor inside speed.

The compact field of five includes multiple stakes winners, with trainers Justin Evans (three entrants) and Steve Asmussen bringing strong contenders. Speed is likely to be prominent, setting up for a tactical affair.

Field Analysis (By Post Position)

1. Clovisconnection (CA)
   1. Post Position: 1
   1. Morning Line Odds: 5/2
   1. Jockey: Luis Negron (local specialist with a 20% win rate at Sunland; excels in front-running rides, strong from the rail with a 18% strike rate in sprints).
   1. Trainer: Justin R. Evans (leading trainer at Sunland with ~25% wins; dominates with California-bred imports and sprinters, multiple stakes winners this meet).
   1. Breeding: Vronsky – La Darling (by Perfect Mandate). Sire Vronsky brings stamina and class from California stakes, while the dam adds sprint speed and consistency.
   1. Recent Finishes: Consistent stakes performer. Last out: 1st in an optional claiming allowance at Pleasanton on 5/26/2025 (6f dirt, fast), Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) ~105. Before that: 1st in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes at Alameda County Fair on 6/29/2025 (6f dirt, fast), ESF 111, winning by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:10.35. Earlier: Targeted higher-level stakes like the Longacres Mile, finishing competitively with ESFs in the 100-110 range. Track conditions: Primarily fast dirt, where he thrives.
   1. Analysis: The rail draw is ideal for his speed-oriented style, allowing him to break sharp and save ground. At 5/2, he’s respected for his recent form and barn’s hot streak. Pedigree suits the 6 1/2f distance, with enough stamina to hold off closers. If the track stays fast, he could wire the field; his high ESFs (up to 111) make him a threat. A logical contender, especially with Evans’ success at Sunland.
2. Katonah (KY)
   1. Post Position: 2
   1. Morning Line Odds: 4/1
   1. Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (top California rider shipping in, 22% win rate; tactical genius in sprints, excellent at rating horses).
   1. Trainer: Justin R. Evans (see above; has a proven track record with older geldings in stakes, often improving them dramatically).
   1. Breeding: Klimt – Ctimene (by Consolidator). Klimt imparts precocious speed and grit, with the dam adding route influence that helps at extended sprints.
   1. Recent Finishes: Strong closer. Last out: Implied strong performance in a graded stakes like the San Pasqual (details sparse, but known for last-to-first wins). Prior: Wins in allowance/optional claimers with ESFs around 100-105, including a blinkers-off victory where he rallied impressively. Earlier form includes graded placings on fast dirt. Track conditions: Fast dirt preferred, handles speed-favoring surfaces well.
   1. Analysis: Good inside post for stalking the pace. At 4/1, he offers value as Evans’ second string. His closing kick could exploit a duel up front, and pedigree provides versatility. Hernandez’s expertise is a plus in tactical races. If cloudy conditions keep the track firm, he moves up; a solid exotic play.
3. Augusta Melody (KY)
   1. Post Position: 3
   1. Morning Line Odds: 3/1
   1. Jockey: Orlando Mojica (veteran with 15% wins at Midwest/Southwest tracks; aggressive style suits speed types, good in stakes).
   1. Trainer: Robertino Diodoro (high-percentage trainer ~20% wins; excels with claiming-to-stakes progressors, strong at Sunland).
   1. Breeding: Speightstown – Tar Heel Mom (by Flatter). Speightstown offers elite sprint speed (sire of multiple G1 winners), dam was a graded stakes performer adding durability.
   1. Recent Finishes: Veteran campaigner in top form. Last out: 1st in the Ft. Bliss Stakes at Sunland on 1/18/2026 (6f dirt, fast), ESF ~105, winning in 1:08.76 by a clear margin. Before that: Competitive in Preakness day allowance at Pimlico on 5/17/2025 (6f dirt, fast), finishing in the money with time of 1:10.39. Earlier: Win at Keeneland on speed-friendly track, bobbling start but recovering for victory. Track conditions: Fast dirt, where he’s dominant.
   1. Analysis: Mid-pack draw allows options to press or stalk. At 3/1, he’s a contender off his recent Sunland win, showing he loves the surface. Pedigree screams sprint class, and at 9 years old, he’s still sharp with ESFs over 100. Diodoro’s prep work is reliable; light winds favor his speed. A major player if pace sets up kindly.
4. Ryvit (KY)
   1. Post Position: 4
   1. Morning Line Odds: 9/5
   1. Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen (up-and-coming rider, son of trainer Steve, 16% wins; strong finisher in sprints).
   1. Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Fame trainer with 25%+ wins; dominates stakes nationwide, multiple winners at this distance).
   1. Breeding: Competitive Edge – She Is Bedazzling (by Medaglia d’Oro). Competitive Edge brings sharp early speed, dam adds gold-standard class and stamina.
   1. Recent Finishes: Classy performer. Last out: Strong in allowance at Oaklawn (details imply closing well despite no pace, ESF ~105). Prior: 1st in the Whitmore Stakes on 3/12/2025 (6f dirt, fast), ESF 112, highest in field. Earlier: Competitive against top speed in stakes like those with Skelly, closing for placings with ESFs 100-110. Track conditions: Fast dirt, excels when pace collapses.
   1. Analysis: Outside the inside speed, perfect for a stalking trip. As the 9/5 favorite, he’s the one to beat with superior recent figures (up to 112 ESF). Asmussen’s barn fires in these spots, and pedigree fits ideally. If the mostly cloudy weather keeps things dry, his closing punch shines. Top selection.
5. Neiman (KY)
   1. Post Position: 5
   1. Morning Line Odds: 4/1
   1. Jockey: Luis A. Valenzuela (reliable Southwest rider, 14% wins; good with closers from outside posts).
   1. Trainer: Justin R. Evans (see above; versatile with his string, often springs value in stakes).
   1. Breeding: Munnings – Tizacity (by Tizway). Munnings provides consistent speed and turf/dirt versatility, dam adds tactical edge for sprints.
   1. Recent Finishes: Improving type. Last out: Competitive in allowance/stakes (speed analysis shows even pace, sections 40.75-38.61-34.68). Prior: Placings in optional claimers with ESFs ~95-100, showing progress. Earlier: Solid efforts in mid-level races, handling fast tracks well. Track conditions: Fast dirt, even-paced runner.
   1. Analysis: Widest draw requires a rally, but Valenzuela can navigate. At 4/1, he’s live as Evans’ third entrant, with upside. Pedigree suggests he handles 6 1/2f, and recent form indicates peaking. If frontrunners tire, he closes; mild conditions suit. Exotic contender.

Race Overview

The Grade III Palos Verdes Stakes is scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. This iconic venue, nestled at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains about 14 miles northeast of downtown Los Angeles, features a one-mile dirt oval and a downhill turf course, but this race will be run on the main dirt track. Known as “The Great Race Place,” Santa Anita has hosted legendary events like the Breeders’ Cup and is renowned for its fast dirt surface that favors speed in sprints.

The race is Race 8 on a nine-race card, with a scheduled post time of 4:00 PM PT (7:00 PM ET). It’s open to 4-year-olds and up, contested over 6 furlongs on dirt, with a purse of $100,000. This sprint stakes often attracts a mix of California-based speedsters and graded performers looking to kick off their seasons strongly. All horses carry weights between 120-124 lbs, with no notable equipment changes mentioned in available data.

Expected weather conditions in Arcadia on February 15, based on forecasts, include partly cloudy skies turning overcast in the afternoon, with a high of 67°F and a low around 54°F. Winds from the WSW at 5-10 mph, humidity around 45-50%, and a low chance of precipitation (under 20%). The track should be fast and dry, but any unexpected light rain could lead to a good surface, potentially benefiting horses with wet-track form.

The field of six features a blend of proven stakes winners and up-and-comers, with speed likely to dominate in this compact group. Morning line odds reflect a competitive affair, with Man O Rose favored off his win streak.

Field Analysis (By Post Position)

1. Man O Rose (KY)
   1. Post Position: 1
   1. Morning Line Odds: 8/5
   1. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo (seasoned rider with a 18% win rate in sprints at Santa Anita; excels in gate-to-wire tactics, strong from inside posts).
   1. Trainer: Jeff Mullins (top California conditioner with ~20% win rate; specializes in sprinters and has a knack for keeping horses on win streaks).
   1. Breeding: Stanford – Kathleen Rose (by Not For Love). Sire Stanford imparts blazing early speed from his own sprint success, while the dam adds durability. California-bred but Kentucky-registered.
   1. Recent Finishes: On a hot streak with four straight wins. Last out: 1st in the Don Valpredo California Cup Sprint (6f dirt, fast) at Santa Anita on 1/17/2026, Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) 119, romping by 9 lengths. Before that: 1st in California Flag H. (6.5f turf) at SA on 10/11/2025, ESF 113; 1st in E.B. Johnston S. (6f dirt) at Los Alamitos on 9/13/2025, ESF 111; 1st in The Chosen Vron Stakes (6f dirt) at Del Mar on 11/8/2025. Track conditions in recent races: fast dirt and firm turf.
   1. Analysis: The rail draw suits his front-running style perfectly, allowing him to break sharp and control the pace. As the morning line favorite, he’s the one to beat with proven class in California-restricted stakes. His speed figures are consistently high (110+), and he thrives at 6f. If the track stays fast, expect him to wire the field; even on a good surface, his form holds. Top pick for the win, but short price limits value.
2. Pilot Commander (KY)
   1. Post Position: 2
   1. Morning Line Odds: 9/5
   1. Jockey: Florent Geroux (elite rider with 22% win rate; tactical and strong finisher, especially in graded sprints).
   1. Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Fame trainer with 25%+ win rate at Santa Anita; master at preparing horses for big spots, multiple Palos Verdes winners).
   1. Breeding: Justify – Rebuke (by Candy Ride). Triple Crown winner Justify brings power and versatility, with the dam adding sprint speed.
   1. Recent Finishes: Strong graded performer. Last out: Implied win or strong showing in a Santa Anita allowance on 1/16/2026 (details sparse, but building form). Prior: Won the San Carlos S. (G3, 7f dirt, fast) at Santa Anita on 3/29/2025; 4th in the Malibu S. (G1, 7f dirt, fast) at SA on 12/26/2024. ESFs around 105-110 in stakes. Track conditions: fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Excellent inside post for stalking the pace set by #1. Baffert’s barn is firing, and Geroux’s closing kick could exploit any early duel. Pedigree suggests he handles 6f well, though his best may be at 7f. Second choice on the line, he’s a major threat if Man O Rose falters. Prefers fast tracks; light winds won’t affect him. Logical for exactas.
3. Modus Bestia (MD)
   1. Post Position: 3
   1. Morning Line Odds: 5/1
   1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu (rising star with 16% wins; patient rider who saves ground effectively).
   1. Trainer: Richard Baltas (solid 15% win rate; good with developing young sprinters from allowance ranks).
   1. Breeding: Maclean’s Music – Make Amends (by Repent). Sire Maclean’s Music offers explosive speed, dam contributes grit.
   1. Recent Finishes: Improving but stepped up tough last out. Last: 7th in Malibu S. (G1, 7f dirt, fast) at SA on 12/28/2025. Before: 1st in allowance optional claiming (6f dirt, fast) at Del Mar on 11/1/2025, ESF 103; 1st in maiden special weight (6f dirt, fast) at DMR on 9/7/2025, ESF 99. Earlier maidens and claims. Track conditions: fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Mid-pack draw allows tactical options. At 5/1, he’s intriguing value dropping from G1 company where he was outclassed but showed speed. Recent wins indicate upside at this distance, and Baltas has him peaking. Pedigree favors dry, fast tracks; overcast conditions could suit if pace heats up. Exotic contender, especially if improving.
4. Smooth Cruisein (FL)
   1. Post Position: 4
   1. Morning Line Odds: 12/1
   1. Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira (veteran with 14% wins; aggressive with longshots, good in routes but adapts to sprints).
   1. Trainer: Karen Headley (consistent 12% win rate; excels with Florida-breds in California circuits).
   1. Breeding: Girvin – Smooth Cookie (by Malibu Moon). Girvin provides stamina and wet-track affinity, dam adds sprint class.
   1. Recent Finishes: Consistent but winless in recent stakes. Last: 5th in Malibu S. (G1, 7f dirt, fast) at SA on 12/28/2025. Before: 2nd in Shared Belief S. (1m dirt, fast) at DMR on 8/31/2025; 2nd in Bob Hope S. (G3) in 2024; last win in allowance optional claiming (6f dirt, sloppy) at SA on 4/26/2025. Also 2nds in Rebel G2 and Pat Day Mile. Track conditions: Mix of fast and sloppy dirt.
   1. Analysis: Outside the speed, he’ll need to stalk effectively. At 12/1, he’s a live longshot with proven graded placings, though wins are sparse lately. Pedigree shines on off tracks—if any moisture from overcast skies, he moves up. Headley’s patient approach could yield a board hit in exotics.
5. Listenupshance (KY)
   1. Post Position: 5
   1. Morning Line Odds: 15/1
   1. Jockey: Tyler Baze (experienced with 13% wins; versatile, often springs upsets with closers).
   1. Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (high-volume trainer with 18% wins; strong in sprints, develops claimers into stakes threats).
   1. Breeding: Shancelot – Listenupnow (by Elusive Quality). Shancelot imparts raw speed, dam adds tactical edge.
   1. Recent Finishes: Stepping up from lower levels. Last: Placement in claiming (6f dirt, fast) at DMR on 11/23/2025 (finish not detailed, but competitive). Before: Win in race 3 (likely allowance, 6f dirt, fast) at DMR on 7/24/2025; 4/8 in maiden claiming at Gulfstream on 6/14/2025; other maidens/claims with mixed results (e.g., 1st in some, 6/8 in others). ESFs around 90-95. Track conditions: fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Wide post may force a closing trip, suiting Baze’s style. At 15/1, he’s the outsider but O’Neill’s barn can surprise. Recent form shows progress from claims to allowances, but this is a class test. Prefers fast tracks; mild weather helps. Best for underneath in tris/superfectas.
6. Madaket Road (KY)
   1. Post Position: 6
   1. Morning Line Odds: 7/2
   1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (talented with 17% wins; strong closer, adapts well from outside).
   1. Trainer: Bob Baffert (see above; dual entry with #2, often dominates sprints).
   1. Breeding: Quality Road – Frolic’s Dream (by Smoke Glacken). Quality Road offers class and stamina, dam was a sprint stakes winner.
   1. Recent Finishes: Graded placer seeking first stakes win. Last year: 2nd in three graded stakes, incl Woody Stephens S. (G1, 7f dirt, fast); also G1-placed at longer distances. Strong recent works at SA (e.g., bullet 4f in :47). No specific 2026 starts noted, but building form. ESFs 100-105. Track conditions: fast dirt.
   1. Analysis: Widest draw requires a clean break, but Kimura can rally. At 7/2, he’s respected for Baffert’s prowess and pedigree. Consistent runner-up in graded company suggests he’s due; distance drop to 6f could spark a breakthrough. Handles any conditions; overcast won’t bother. Key rival to the favorite, strong for win/place.

Race Overview

The Grade III George Washington Stakes (also known as Clasico Jorge Washington) is set for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Camarero Race Track in Canóvanas, Puerto Rico. This historic venue, located just east of San Juan, is Puerto Rico’s premier Thoroughbred racing facility, featuring a one-mile dirt oval and known for its vibrant local racing scene. The race is carded as Race 7 on a seven-race program, with a scheduled post time of 5:30 PM ET (6:30 PM local Atlantic Standard Time).

The event is restricted to 3-year-old colts and will be contested over 1 1/16 miles on the dirt surface. The purse is $36,000, making it a key early-season stakes for emerging Puerto Rican and imported talent. Track conditions are expected to be fast, as the dirt oval typically drains well, but any precipitation could lead to a good or sloppy surface. Based on available forecasts, the weather in Canóvanas on February 15 should be partly cloudy with passing showers possible. High temperatures around 82°F, lows near 74°F, with a 40-50% chance of precipitation, light winds (5-10 mph from the east), and humidity around 70%. This could introduce some variability, favoring horses with experience on off tracks.

This stakes race often features a mix of locally bred and U.S.-imported colts, with trainers focusing on speed and stamina for the classic distance. Unfortunately, detailed recent finishes for the entrants were not available in the sourced entries data (likely due to many being lightly raced 3-year-olds or recent imports), so the analysis below relies on morning line odds, breeding, jockey/trainer stats, and general performance trends at Camarero. All horses carry 120 lbs, and several are adding tongue ties, which could indicate efforts to improve focus or breathing.

Field Analysis (By Post Position)

1. Day of Love (NY)
   1. Post Position: 1
   1. Morning Line Odds: 10/1
   1. Jockey: K Rosario (experienced local rider with a strong win rate at Camarero, around 15-20% in recent seasons; known for patient rides from inside posts).
   1. Trainer: K Vazquez (solid mid-level trainer at the track, specializing in New York-bred imports; win rate ~12% with young horses).
   1. Breeding: Combatant – Nordic Bird (by Birdstone). Sire Combatant brings stamina from his own graded stakes wins (e.g., Smarty Jones S.), while the dam side adds turf/distance influence, though this colt is dirt-oriented.
   1. Analysis: Drawing the rail is a double-edged sword at Camarero—good for saving ground but risky in a speed-favoring setup. At 10/1, he’s seen as an outsider, possibly due to limited exposure or recent workouts. If he’s forwardly placed, he could benefit from a ground-saving trip, but he’ll need to break sharply to avoid traffic. Suited to the distance based on pedigree, but without recent form details, he’s a longshot play for exotics if the pace melts down. Potential upset if showers make the track tiring.
2. Imperdonable (KY)
   1. Post Position: 2
   1. Morning Line Odds: 5/1
   1. Jockey: J I Velez (versatile rider with over 1,000 career wins at Camarero; excels in mid-pack stalking roles, win rate ~18%).
   1. Trainer: J Lisboa (consistent performer with imported Kentucky-breds; ~14% win rate, strong in stakes prep races).
   1. Breeding: Frosted – Miss Challenge (by More Than Ready). Frosted imparts class and speed (sire of multiple graded winners), with the dam adding precocity.
   1. Analysis: Solid value at 5/1 from a good inside post. The tongue tie addition suggests trainers are addressing focus issues, which could lead to a breakout. Pedigree screams mid-distance talent, and if he’s improved from juvenile form, he could press the pace early. Velez’s tactical style fits well here. A contender if the track stays fast; weather-related moisture might play to his stamina. Worth considering for win/place bets.
3. Silver Palladium (KY)
   1. Post Position: 3
   1. Morning Line Odds: 7/2
   1. Jockey: E Ramirez (up-and-coming rider with a 16% win clip; aggressive from the gate, good with speed types).
   1. Trainer: S Diaz (top-tier local trainer, ~20% win rate; excels in developing 3-year-olds for stakes).
   1. Breeding: Silver State – My Fair Lily (by Smoke Glacken). Silver State (Tapit line) offers durability and closing kick, while the dam brings sprint speed.
   1. Analysis: At 7/2, he’s respected as a strong second choice. The post allows for a clean break, and the tongue tie could sharpen his early speed. Diaz’s barn has a history of success in this race, suggesting sharp conditioning. Pedigree balances speed and stamina, ideal for 1 1/16 miles. If showers hit, his Tapit bloodline often handles off tracks well. A logical play in a race that could favor closers if the pace is hot.
4. Nieval (FL)
   1. Post Position: 4
   1. Morning Line Odds: 3/1
   1. Jockey: N Figueroa (veteran with high strike rate ~22%; known for rating horses effectively in routes).
   1. Trainer: R Morales (reputable with Florida-bred imports; ~15% wins, strong in graded events).
   1. Breeding: Awesome Slew – Silver Joy (by Kitten’s Joy). Awesome Slew (Awesome Again line) provides power and endurance, with turf influence from the dam that could translate to wet dirt.
   1. Analysis: Morning line suggests solid respect at 3/1. Mid-pack post is ideal for stalking, and Figueroa’s experience could exploit any pace duel. Tongue tie might address minor issues. Breeding points to a horse who stretches out well, and Florida-breds often adapt quickly to Camarero’s surface. If weather brings rain, his pedigree edges him up. A top contender; could be overbet but has the tools to win.
5. Gambaro (KY)
   1. Post Position: 5
   1. Morning Line Odds: 10/1
   1. Jockey: J Garcia (reliable mid-card rider, ~13% wins; good with longshots in routes).
   1. Trainer: L Adorno (steady trainer with young stock; ~11% wins, focuses on value plays).
   1. Breeding: Beau Liam – Covey Trace (by Stevie Wonderboy). Beau Liam (Liam’s Map) brings front-running speed, dam adds quirkiness but talent.
   1. Analysis: Outsider at 10/1, but the post allows options. Tongue tie could help settle him. Pedigree leans speed-heavy, so he might tire late at this distance unless the race sets up soft. Adorno’s barn occasionally springs upsets in stakes. If dry and fast track, he could wire the field; rain might hinder. Exotic filler at best.
6. El Consistente (KY)
   1. Post Position: 6
   1. Morning Line Odds: 4/5
   1. Jockey: J Diaz, Jr. (Hall of Fame-caliber rider with 25%+ win rate at Camarero; master tactician in big races).
   1. Trainer: E A Betancourt (elite trainer, ~25% wins; dominates local stakes with consistent performers).
   1. Breeding: Silver State – Behind the Lines (by Munnings). Another Silver State, with Munnings speed for tactical versatility.
   1. Analysis: Clear favorite at 4/5, and deservedly so. Outside post suits a stalker/closer, and Diaz’s expertise is a huge plus. Tongue tie addition signals fine-tuning. Pedigree screams reliability—stamina from sire, speed from dam. Betancourt’s hot streak with 3-year-olds makes him the one to beat. Handles any conditions; expect heavy support.
7. Devine Star (KY)
   1. Post Position: 7
   1. Morning Line Odds: 2/1
   1. Jockey: J Santiago (top jockey, ~20% wins; excels in closing from outside posts).
   1. Trainer: E Falcon (proven stakes winner, ~18% rate; good with Daredevil progeny).
   1. Breeding: Daredevil – Daisy Devine (by Kafwain). Daredevil (More Than Ready) offers grit and closing punch, dam was a graded winner.
   1. Analysis: Strong second choice at 2/1. Wide post requires a clean trip, but Santiago’s closing style fits. Tongue tie could enhance focus. Pedigree highlights class—dam’s stakes wins suggest upside. Falcon’s prep work is reliable. If pace collapses or rain tires frontrunners, he’s live. Key threat to the favorite.