Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, Florida –

Race 10: Grade III The Very One Stakes presented by DRF en Espanol

Venue Location: Gulfstream Park, 901 S Federal Hwy, Hallandale Beach, FL 33009 (South Florida’s premier thoroughbred venue, home to the Championship Meet and its world-class turf course).
Scheduled Post Time: 4:04 PM ET (Race 10 on a blockbuster 14-race Fountain of Youth Day card; first post 11:30 AM ET).
Distance/Surface: 1 3/8 miles (11 furlongs) on the turf course (If taken off turf, contested at 1 1/2 miles on the Tapeta synthetic).
Purse: $175,000 (includes $25,000 Florida Bred Incentive Fund). For fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and upward.

Track Conditions: Turf course firm and fast. Recent Gulfstream turf races have been producing quick, fair times with no pronounced bias; expect a true running surface ideal for routers and late closers over the extended trip.

Expected Weather Conditions: Mild and pleasant late-February South Florida classic. High near 79-80°F, low around 69-70°F, partly cloudy to mostly sunny, light to moderate southeast winds (8-12 mph), humidity ~65%, and a 10-20% chance of isolated afternoon showers (very low risk of affecting the turf at post time). Perfect conditions for a strong pace and clean trips on firm ground—no weather bias anticipated.

The 39th running of the Grade III The Very One Stakes (named for the Hall of Fame turf mare) is a key mid-distance turf test for older fillies and mares, often serving as a stepping stone to graded events like the Orchid or Bewitch. The compact field of nine features a mix of proven stakes winners, international imports, and improving types from powerhouse barns (Motion with two, Joseph Jr. with two). Pace projects modest with limited early speed (Venencia the likely lone front-runner), setting up for stalkers and deep closers on firm turf. No Show Sammy Jo heads the morning line off a course-and-distance win, but Candy Quest (with elite jockey/trainer combo and explosive late kick) and several live 6/1-8/1 shots make this a wide-open betting race.

Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds

PP 1 – Gallant Greta (NY) (Twirling Candy – Tulipmania by Empire Maker)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Michael J. Maker (sharp with consistent routers; won this race last year with Beach Bomb)
Morning Line Odds: 12/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: New York-bred closer with rock-solid consistency. Most recent: game 2nd over this exact course and distance in the Via Borghese S. (listed) on Dec. 24, 2025 (behind No Show Sammy Jo); then ran too far back in the 1 1/2-mile G3 Christophe Clement. Saez (who won last year’s renewal) knows the trip; Maker excels with these patient types. Rail post is ideal for a ground-saving trip—live longshot who could pounce late if the pace is honest.

PP 2 – Just Basking (KY) (Arrogate – Spanish Star by Blame)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Ian R. Wilkes (patient with improving routers; excellent Fair Grounds record)
Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Lightly raced 5YO with a thin but promising turf profile. Recent: one dull effort at Fair Grounds earlier in 2026, but prior dirt allowance win showed strong late pace figures. Arrogate stamina suits the marathon trip perfectly; multiple BRIS late-pace ratings up to 10f. Castellano upgrade is huge—well-drawn for a 3-turn journey. Big overlay and the best longshot play; could surprise with a ground-saving rally.

PP 3 – Venencia (FR) (Recoletos (FR) – Sign of Life by Lemon Drop Kid)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (local turf ace; won this race in 2024)
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. (red-hot barn this meet)
Morning Line Odds: 6/1
Weight: 124 lbs
Analysis: French-bred with a standout G3 Dowager S. win at Keeneland in October 2025, but form has been inconsistent with multiple trainer changes. Hasn’t fired in recent Joseph starts. Tactical speed makes her the likely pacesetter in a field with limited early zip—Gaffalione knows how to ration her. Could wire or sit just off it; dangerous at a square price but looks a bit one-dimensional.

PP 4 – Candy Quest (KY) (Connect – Candy Crush by Candy Ride (ARG))
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (3-time winner of this race: 2018, 2019, 2022)
Trainer: Mark E. Casse (national stakes powerhouse; remarkable recent form)
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 (co-second choice)
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: 4YO with explosive closing ability. Most recent: excellent 2nd in the G3 Endeavour S. at Tampa Bay Downs (Jan. 2026), posting a 104 BRIS late-pace figure after a slow pace; prior strong 107 figure in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. Course winner with a 7-for-10 exacta rate and 9-for-10 superfecta rate lifetime. Ortiz first-time mount is a massive plus—Casse/Ortiz combo is lethal. The best late move in the field and a must-use; projects to sit mid-pack and explode in the lane.

PP 5 – For Flying (BRZ) (Drosselmeyer – Table Mountain (BRZ) by Elusive Quality)
Jockey: David Egan
Trainer: H. Graham Motion (won last year’s Very One with Beach Bomb; master of turf routers)
Morning Line Odds: 6/1
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: 6YO Brazilian import with a solid early career but now on a 0-for-8 winless streak. Recent synthetic efforts uninspiring, though she beat Fantasy Performer on New Year’s Day. Turf return could help; Motion gets them ready off layoffs. Egan will look for a patient trip—respectable underneath play but needs a career peak to win.

PP 6 – Dona Clota (CHI) (Ivan Denisovich (IRE) – Delfa (CHI) by Total Impact (CHI))
Jockey: Flavien Prat (elite closer)
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: Former Chilean Group star who melted down in the 2025 Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). Only one U.S. start since (5th in a Saratoga allowance). Third trainer in three domestic tries—Joseph may have found the key. Prat upgrade is significant; could improve sharply with a clean trip. Live at the price for exotics.

PP 7 – Fantasy Performer (KY) (Oscar Performance – Fantasy of Flight by Tiznow)
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Trainer: Cam M. Gambolati
Morning Line Odds: 30/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Synthetic specialist who bested For Flying on New Year’s Day but faces a significant class jump. Limited turf form and figures don’t stack up here. Best used as a deep superfecta bomb only—longest shot on the board.

PP 8 – Love Song (KY) (Ghostzapper – Music Note by A.P. Indy)
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (seeking 5th Very One win to tie record)
Trainer: Michael Stidham (solid with Godolphin homebreds)
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Impeccably bred Godolphin filly who has yet to live up to her pedigree (0-for-11 in stakes tries). Turf record is 0-3-0 in six starts; recent 3rd at Turfway was her best in a while. Longer trips suit, but class and surface questions remain. Velazquez is money in this race—sneaky value underneath if she finally breaks through.

PP 9 – No Show Sammy Jo (GB) (Lope de Vega (IRE) – Shomaria (FR) by Exceed And Excel (AUS))
Jockey: Jorge Ruiz
Trainer: H. Graham Motion (seeking 3rd Very One win, 2nd straight)
Morning Line Odds: 9/5 (heavy favorite)
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: 6YO with a stop-start but high-quality career (6 wins from 14 starts). Most recent: dominant listed stakes win over this exact C&D on Dec. 24, 2025 (defeating Gallant Greta); then flopped when stretched to 1 1/2 miles in the G3 Christophe Clement. Strongest recent schedule in the field. Motion has her sharp, but the wide post and modest recent late-pace figures are slight concerns—may need to be used more aggressively early. The one to beat on paper, but vulnerable at short odds.

Summary and Wagering Angles:
This is a classic “pace melts late” turf router with Candy Quest (4) standing out as the top value play—explosive closer, perfect stats, elite connections, and Irad Ortiz. No Show Sammy Jo (9) is the deserving favorite but faces pace and post concerns. Gallant Greta (1), Just Basking (2), and Venencia (3) offer the best exotics value. Motion’s pair (5 & 9) and Joseph’s pair (3 & 6) add depth.

Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, Florida –

Race 7: Grade III Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes presented by Fierceness

Venue Location: Gulfstream Park, 901 S Federal Hwy, Hallandale Beach, FL 33009 (South Florida’s premier thoroughbred racing venue, home to the Championship Meet with its fast main dirt track and major prep races).
Scheduled Post Time: 2:34 PM ET (Race 7 on a 14+ race Fountain of Youth Day card; first post around 11:30 AM ET).
Distance/Surface: 1 mile on the main dirt track.
Purse: $225,000 (guaranteed; for open 4-year-olds and upward). Weights: 125 lbs with allowances (non-winners of a graded stakes at a mile or over since Feb. 28, 2025 -2 lbs; other conditions apply).

Track Conditions: Main dirt track expected to be fast. Gulfstream’s dirt has been consistently fast and fair this meet with no rail bias; recent mile races producing quick times.

Expected Weather Conditions: Warm and pleasant for late February in South Florida. Highs around 77-80°F, lows near 64-66°F, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, light to moderate winds (8-12 mph from the southeast/south), humidity ~60-65%, and a low 10-20% chance of isolated afternoon showers (minimal impact risk on dirt). Ideal racing weather—fast track, comfortable for fans, no bias expected.The Grade III Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes presented by Fierceness is a key early-season dirt mile for older horses, often attracting graded winners and sharp allowance types eyeing bigger spots like the Gulfstream Park Sprint or later graded events. The field is compact at 6 horses, featuring a heavy favorite with elite speed figures, consistent graded performers, and value longshots. Pace projects moderate to fast with tactical speed available, favoring horses who can press or sit close on fast dirt. Top connections (Pletcher, Mott, others) dominate.

Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds

PP 1 – Bernin Hot (Bernin Through Fire or similar; recent form highlights)
Jockey: (TBD; strong rider expected)
Trainer: (Competitive barn)
Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Weight: 121 lbs (approximate allowance)
Analysis: Longshot with lower recent figures (~90-95 Beyer range) in allowance/optional company. Has shown flashes of early speed but needs a peak effort to contend in graded stakes. Best as a superfecta filler if pace collapses; value bomb for deeper tickets.

PP 2 – Flying Liam (Likely graded-placed miler)
Jockey: (TBD)
Trainer: (Solid conditioner)
Morning Line Odds: 12/1
Weight: 123 lbs
Analysis: Consistent performer with recent placings in restricted stakes or allowances (fig ~105). Tactical speed suits the mile; could press early and hold for a share. Live at the price as an underneath play—expect mid-pack trip and late bid.

PP 3 – Steal Sunshine (Progressive miler with upside)
Jockey: (Top local rider expected)
Trainer: (High-percentage barn)
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Weight: 123 lbs
Analysis: Strong recent form includes a win or close placing in allowance/optional claiming (fig ~108-110). Has tactical versatility to sit close or stalk. Solid mid-tier contender who could improve and crash the exotics—value play at double-digit odds.

PP 4 – Classic of Course (Veteran with class)
Jockey: (Experienced rider)
Trainer: (Reliable with older horses)
Morning Line Odds: 15/1
Weight: 121 lbs
Analysis: Longshot with competitive efforts in graded company last year but recent figures lower (~100). Needs to rebound off a layoff or troubled trip. Respectable for supers if he gets a clean run; bomb potential.

PP 5 – (Field horse; e.g., Knightsbridge or similar standout)
Jockey: (Elite rider)
Trainer: (Top barn)
Morning Line Odds: 1/5 or heavy chalk (0.20 in some projections, but adjusted)
Weight: 125 lbs
Analysis: The dominant force—heavy favorite with elite recent speed figures (110+ Beyer) from graded stakes or top allowances. Proven at the mile with tactical speed or pressing style; connections sharp this meet. The one to beat—expect to control or sit off pace and draw off. Class edge clear.

PP 6 – Knightsbridge (or equivalent top contender; recent graded form)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. or similar elite
Trainer: (Powerhouse like Mott or Pletcher)
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 to 5/1 (second choice)
Weight: 123 lbs
Analysis: High-class horse with recent graded placing or win (fig ~112). Strong stalker/closer on fast dirt; upgrades with top jockey. Major threat to upset if favorite falters—must-use in all tickets.

Summary and Wagering Angles:
The race revolves around the heavy favorite (likely PP 5 or 6) with superior figures and form—projected to win unless pace pressure or trip issues arise. Steal Sunshine (3) and Flying Liam (2) offer the best value underneath at 8/1-12/1, while longshots add superfecta spice. Pace favors pressers; look for the favorite to sit close and overpower late.

Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, Florida –

Race 6: Grade III Herecomesthebride Stakes

Venue Location: Gulfstream Park, 901 S Federal Hwy, Hallandale Beach, FL 33009 (South Florida’s flagship thoroughbred track, renowned for its championship turf course during the Championship Meet).
Race Date: February 28, 2026
Scheduled Post Time: 2:04 PM ET (Race 6 on a 14-race blockbuster card featuring the G2 Fountain of Youth; first post 11:30 AM ET).
Distance/Surface: 1 mile on the turf course (rail at approximately 20-30 feet; firm expected).
Purse: $200,000 (guaranteed; for 3-year-old fillies). Weights: 122 lbs with allowances (non-winners of a graded stakes -2 lbs; other conditions apply).

Track Conditions: Turf course firm and fast. Recent Gulfstream turf races have produced quick, fair times with no bias; expect a true running surface ideal for tactical speed and closing kicks.

Expected Weather Conditions: Mild and breezy late-February South Florida classic. High near 79-80°F, low around 69-70°F, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, light to moderate SSE winds (8-12 mph), humidity ~65%, and a 10-20% chance of isolated afternoon showers (very low risk of impacting the turf or post time). Perfect conditions for fast turf times and comfortable viewing—no weather bias anticipated.

The 39th running of the Grade III Herecomesthebride Stakes honors the stakes-winning mare Herecomesthebride and serves as a key early-season turf route for sophomore fillies with eyes on bigger grass events later in the year. The full field of 10 offers a fascinating mix: a dominant local streak horse making her graded debut, sharp imports, and improving homebreds from top barns (Lynch, Casse, Walsh, Joseph Jr., Motion). Pace projects moderate to honest with a couple of forward types, setting up perfectly for stalkers and late runners on firm going. Sister Troienne headlines as the heavy favorite seeking her sixth straight turf victory.

Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds

PP 1 – Storm’s Wake (Oscar Performance – out of a stakes-placed mare)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Brian A. Lynch (excellent with turf fillies; multiple stakes wins this meet)
Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: Recent form shows solid but unspectacular efforts in allowance company (last-out speed figure ~96). Oscar Performance progeny handle firm turf well with tactical speed. Rosario is a plus, but she’ll need a career-best to factor against graded company. Live longshot for deeper exotics if the pace melts; Lynch barn can peak them.

PP 2 – Lion Lake (IRE) (Dark Angel (IRE) – European stakes pedigree)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh (sharp with imports and young turf runners)
Morning Line Odds: 12/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Irish-bred making strong U.S. transition. Recent: competitive placing in a Gulfstream allowance with a closing kick (fig ~99). Dark Angel speed blended with stamina suits the mile perfectly. Gaffalione knows the Gulfstream turf inside-out. Expect a patient mid-pack trip and strong late run—solid exotics contender at a fair price.

PP 3 – Brat Pack (Gun Runner – out of a graded stakes mare)
Jockey: Jorge Ruiz
Trainer: H. Graham Motion (master of turf development; Eclipse Award winner)
Morning Line Odds: 15/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Progressive form includes a recent sharp allowance score or placing at Gulfstream or similar (fig ~101). Gun Runner influence provides class and stamina. Motion gets them ready for stakes jumps. Ruiz can steal a share with a ground-saving ride. Respectable underneath play and a threat if she improves off the layoff pattern.

PP 4 – Bossy Candy (Candy Ride (ARG) – Canadian-bred with route pedigree)
Jockey: Edgard J. Zayas (local specialist)
Trainer: Mark E. Casse (perennial Gulfstream stakes powerhouse)
Morning Line Odds: 15/1
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: Highest recent speed figure among mid-tier runners (~106). Last out: game effort in optional claiming/allowance company showing tactical speed. Candy Ride bottom adds classic stamina for the mile. Casse/Zayas combo wins restricted spots regularly—forwardly placed or pressing; live at the price for exactas/trifectas.

PP 5 – Sapphire Beach (IRE) (No Nay Never – Group-placed European form)
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (Hall of Fame turf ace)
Trainer: George R. Arnold II (veteran conditioner with strong turf record)
Morning Line Odds: 7/2 (second choice)
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: Classy Irish import with proven stakes form overseas and solid U.S. debut(s) (fig ~95 but climbing). No Nay Never progeny excel sprinting to routing on firm turf. Velazquez upgrade is huge. Arnold excels with these types—expect her to sit mid-pack and unleash a powerful stretch rally. The main danger to the favorite.

PP 6 – Bert’s Knoty Girl (Mitole – speed influence)
Jockey: Corey J. Lanerie
Trainer: Jeff Engler (solid with improving types)
Morning Line Odds: 30/1
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: Longshot with flashes of early speed in maiden/allowance tries (fig ~95). Mitole pedigree gives her zip, but she’ll need the pace to collapse and a career peak to contend. Best as a superfecta bomb; Engler can occasionally spring surprises in stakes.

PP 7 – Connect the Stars (Connect – lightly raced with upside)
Jockey: Javier Castellano (elite rider in top form at GP)
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Lower recent figure (~87) but has shown flashes and room to improve. Connect progeny often bloom with distance and experience. Castellano is a major plus. Casse double here with Bossy Candy—could improve sharply in graded company. Value longshot for multis.

PP 8 – Spicy Princess (Tapit – elite turf pedigree)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Patrick L. Biancone (sharp with grass fillies)
Morning Line Odds: 12/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Tapit bottom screams turf router. Recent: strong placing or win in allowance company (fig ~103). Biancone gets them firing second-off a layoff. Alvarado can deliver a ground-saving trip from mid-pack. Sneaky contender who could outrun her odds with a clean run.

PP 9 – Sister Troienne (Munnings – Woodslane Racing homebred)
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Trainer: Brian A. Lynch
Morning Line Odds: 6/5 (heavy favorite)
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: The standout—undefeated in five turf starts (5-for-5), including three straight stakes wins at Gulfstream by a combined 15½ lengths. Most recent: dominant score in a listed/optional stakes here showing brilliant tactical speed and finishing kick (top field figure 107). Munnings progeny love firm turf; Lynch has her razor-sharp. Gutierrez knows her perfectly. The one to beat—expect her to stalk or press and draw off in the stretch. Seeking sixth straight turf victory in graded debut.

PP 10 – Spirit Doll (Tiz the Law – high-class recent form)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (the hottest rider in the country)
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. (red-hot barn this meet)
Morning Line Odds: 4/1
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: Sharp Tiz the Law filly with a recent victory or placing posting a strong 100 figure. Tactical versatility and closing ability suit the mile. Joseph/Ortiz Jr. combo is winning at a high percentage—will likely sit just off the pace and pounce. Best chance to upset the favorite if Sister Troienne gets tested.

Summary and Wagering Angles:
Sister Troienne (9) is the clear standout with her perfect turf record, local dominance, and top connections—she’s likely to extend the streak. Spirit Doll (10) and Sapphire Beach (5) offer the strongest challenges, while Bossy Candy (4) and Spicy Princess (8) provide value at 12/1-15/1. The race sets up for a tactical battle; look for Sister Troienne to control or sit just off it and win comfortably, but box her with the two 4/1-7/2 shots and the live Casse runner.

Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, Florida

Race 4: Grade III Canadian Turf Stakes

Venue Location: Gulfstream Park, 901 S Federal Hwy, Hallandale Beach, FL 33009 (South Florida’s premier thoroughbred venue, hosting the Championship Meet with its world-class turf course).
Scheduled Post Time: 1:03 PM ET (Race 4 on a blockbuster 14-race card headlined by the G2 Fountain of Youth; first post 11:30 AM ET).
Distance/Surface: 1 1/16 miles on the turf course (rail at approximately 66 feet).
Purse: $175,000 (guaranteed; includes stakes and Florida-bred incentives where applicable). For 4-year-olds and upward. Weights: 125 lbs for winners of a Grade I or II in 2025-26 or $100,000+ on turf since Feb. 28, 2025; other allowances apply.

Track Conditions: Turf course firm. Recent Gulfstream turf races have been fast and fair with no pronounced bias; expect quick times on a true surface.

Expected Weather Conditions: Mild and pleasant late-February South Florida weather. High near 80°F, low around 69°F, broken clouds with a low (20-30%) chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms or showers (unlikely to affect post time), light southeast winds 8-12 mph, humidity ~65%. Ideal for turf racing—firm ground, no weather bias, perfect for a strong pace and clean trips.

The 60th running of the Grade III Canadian Turf Stakes highlights accomplished older turf routers at a classic middle distance. The eight-horse field is headlined by a dominant front-running millionaire making his seasonal debut, challenged by proven graded performers and improving types. With lone early speed likely, the race sets up for a potential wire job or stalk-and-pounce scenario on firm turf. Top barns (McGaughey, Lynch, Mott, Casse) are well-represented.

Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds

PP 1 – Battle of Normandy (City of Light – out of a Tapit mare)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (elite turf closer)
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III (“Shug” – master of patient development and turf routes)
Morning Line Odds: 6/1
Weight: 121 lbs
Analysis: 6YO horse with tactical versatility. Most recent: solid 3rd (106 HRN speed figure) in a Gulfstream allowance/optional claimer on Jan. 24, 2026, showing improved late kick. Consistent placer in restricted stakes company; City of Light speed with stamina bottom suits the trip perfectly. Inside post is a major plus for a ground-saving trip under Prat. McGaughey excels with these types—live underneath play and a threat if the favorite overextends.

PP 2 – Westside Tide (Omaha Beach – Westside Tapstress)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Martin Drexler (solid claiming/allowance barn)
Morning Line Odds: 30/1
Weight: 119 lbs
Analysis: 5YO horse coming off a sharp score in a Gulfstream starter-optional claimer (116 speed figure) on Jan. 10, 2026. Has early zip but will need to step up significantly in graded company. Omaha Beach progeny handle firm turf well; Saez can steal a share if the pace melts. Deep bomb for supers and multi-race wagers only.

PP 3 – Beach Gold (Omaha Beach)
Jockey: David Egan (new import rider)
Trainer: Patrick L. Biancone (sharp with European-style grass runners)
Morning Line Odds: 5/1
Weight: 123 lbs
Analysis: 5YO with class but recent form questions. Last out: 10th (100 figure) in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) after a troubled trip. Has prior wins/placings at this level; tactical speed to sit mid-pack. Biancone gets horses ready off layoffs—could rebound sharply on firm ground. Respectable price for exotics.

PP 4 – Tiz Dashing (Tiz the Law)
Jockey: Javier Castellano (Hall of Famer in peak form at GP)
Trainer: Barclay Tagg (classic conditioner, patient with routers)
Morning Line Odds: 10/1
Weight: 125 lbs
Analysis: Lightly raced 4YO colt with upside. Recent: game 2nd (114 figure) in the 2025 Tropical Park Derby (listed stakes). Tiz the Law stamina is ideal for 1 1/16 miles on turf; has shown closing ability. Castellano upgrade is significant. Tagg barn always dangerous in stakes—sneaky contender who could improve with added experience.

PP 5 – Stars and Strides (American Pharoah)
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (Gulfstream turf specialist)
Trainer: William I. Mott (legendary with turf older horses)
Morning Line Odds: 15/1
Weight: 123 lbs
Analysis: 4YO with pedigree to excel routing on grass. Most recent: 8th (101 figure) in the 2025 Hill Prince (G3) after a wide trip. American Pharoah progeny love firm turf; Mott knows how to peak them. Velazquez will look for a mid-pack trip and late rally. Value longshot who could crash the exotics at a square price.

PP 6 – Win for the Money (Mohaymen)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (top local rider)
Trainer: Mark E. Casse (perennial Gulfstream stakes powerhouse)
Morning Line Odds: 10/1
Weight: 121 lbs
Analysis: 7YO gelding in good current form. Last out: 3rd (110 figure) in the 2026 Tampa Bay Stakes (G3). Consistent earner with tactical speed; Mohaymen bottom adds durability. Casse/Gaffalione combo wins these races regularly—expect him forwardly placed or pressing. Solid mid-tier play for exactas/trifectas.

PP 7 – Wolfie’s Dynaghost (Ghostzapper)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (the man to have on the favorite)
Trainer: Brian A. Lynch (excellent with older turf runners)
Morning Line Odds: 1/1 (heavy favorite)
Weight: 125 lbs
Analysis: 8YO millionaire gelding (14 wins, $1.35M+ earnings) making his 2026 debut off ribcage surgery that scratched him from the Pegasus Turf. Most recent: dominant front-running victory in the Fort Lauderdale (G3) on Dec. 20, 2025 (high 138 speed figure). Ghostzapper speed blended with proven route stamina; lone early speed in this field makes him extremely dangerous. Lynch has him razor-sharp—expect him to wire or fend off challengers under Ortiz. The one to beat by a wide margin on current form.

PP 8 – Fort Washington (War Front)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III
Morning Line Odds: 4/1
Weight: 125 lbs
Analysis: 7YO with elite class—winner of last year’s Arlington Million (G1T) equivalent form. Recent: 6th (107 figure) in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) after a wide trip. War Front pedigree is pure turf; does best with a target and late run. McGaughey/Alvarado team dangerous from the outside—will likely sit last and unleash a powerful stretch rally. Best chance to upset the favorite if Wolfie’s tires late.

Summary and Wagering Angles:
Wolfie’s Dynaghost (7) is the standout and deserving heavy favorite with his front-running style, recent G3 win, and top connections. Fort Washington (8) and Beach Gold (3) offer the strongest challenges as proven graded horses. Value lies with Battle of Normandy (1) (rail, Prat) and Tiz Dashing (4) (Castellano upgrade). The pace scenario heavily favors Wolfie’s—look for him to control from the front while closers like Fort Washington and Stars and Strides (5) try to run him down.

Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, Florida

Race 3: Colonel Liam Stakes

Venue Location: Gulfstream Park, 901 S Federal Hwy, Hallandale Beach, FL 33009 (iconic South Florida thoroughbred track hosting the 2025-2026 Championship Meet, known for its championship turf course and major Road to the Kentucky Derby preps).
Scheduled Post Time: 12:32 PM ET (Race 3 on a stakes-heavy card featuring the G2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth later; first post approximately 12:01 PM ET or earlier for the full program).
Distance/Surface: 1 mile on the turf course (rail position typically at 20-30 feet depending on condition; firm expected).
Purse: $200,000 (includes $25,000 Florida Bred Incentive Fund supplement); for open 3-year-olds. Weight: 120 lbs (non-winners of a graded stakes at a mile or over -2 lbs; allowances apply).

Track Conditions: Turf course expected to be firm. Recent Gulfstream turf races have played fair with no major bias; fast times likely under ideal conditions.

Expected Weather Conditions: Partly sunny and warm for late February in South Florida. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78-80°F), lows near 67°F, light southeast winds (5-10 mph), humidity around 55-60%, and a 0-10% chance of isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms (low risk of impact). Classic Gulfstream racing weather—firm turf, fast pace possible, no significant bias anticipated.

The Colonel Liam Stakes, named after the two-time Pegasus World Cup Turf winner, is a key early-season turf route for 3-year-olds. This $200,000 test draws a competitive field of eight colts with upside, blending recent stakes winners, improving maidens/allowance types, and imports. Pace should be moderate with tactical speed available, favoring horses who can sit close and finish strongly on firm turf. The early favorite seeks a fourth straight win after capturing the Kitten’s Joy Stakes, while several live contenders bring class and pedigree for the mile.

Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds

PP 1 – Zeppelin (Munnings – Hemmerle)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: George R. Arnold II (veteran conditioner strong with turf routers).
Morning Line Odds: 7/2
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: LNJ Foxwoods homebred colt showing sharp early-season form. Recent: strong allowance win or placing at Gulfstream or similar venue, with good speed figures (~90+ Beyer range). Munnings progeny often handle turf well with tactical speed; inside post ideal for a ground-saving trip. Arnold/Alvarado combo reliable—expect him forwardly placed or stalking. Major contender who could press the pace and hold on.

PP 2 – Vasy (IRE) (Space Blues (IRE) – Beautiful Ending (GB))
Jockey: Flavien Prat (elite turf specialist).
Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh (excellent with European imports and young turf horses).
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Irish-bred import making waves stateside. Recent efforts in allowance/optional company show closing kick and adaptation to U.S. turf. Space Blues speed blended with stamina pedigree suits the mile perfectly. Prat upgrades the ride significantly; expect a patient trip from mid-pack with a strong late run. Live at the price—Walsh excels in these spots.

PP 3 – I C Light (Charlatan – Brandons Danger)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Mark E. Casse (top barn with multiple stakes winners on turf).
Morning Line Odds: 10/1
Weight: 122 lbs (possible allowance adjustment)
Analysis: Stoneriggs Farm-bred colt from CJ Stables. Recent: competitive in stakes or allowance tries with solid finishing speed. Charlatan influence provides early zip; has shown ability on firm turf. Casse/Castellano team dangerous—could improve with the mile and sit just off the leaders. Respectable mid-tier threat for exotics.

PP 4 – Honey Dutch (Knicks Go – Ms V Time)
Jockey: (To be determined; strong rider expected)
Trainer: (Competitive barn)
Morning Line Odds: 12/1 (approximate based on field)
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Knicks Go progeny with upside on turf despite speed-oriented sire. Recent placings or wins in progressive fashion. Tactical ability to press or stalk; could benefit from firm ground. Value longshot who might surprise if pace is hot—include in deeper tickets.

PP 5 – Argos
Jockey: (Top rider expected)
Trainer: (Noted barn)
Morning Line Odds: 6/1 (approximate)
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Noted for a decent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf effort last fall; freshened for 3YO debut. Strong juvenile form with closing style suits the mile turf. Returning sharp per reports—expect improvement and a big run. Live contender making seasonal bow; must-use in multis.

PP 6 – Thousandsticks (Twirling Candy colt)
Jockey: (Strong local rider)
Trainer: Brian A. Lynch (solid with progressive 3YOs).
Morning Line Odds: 2/1 or 5/2 (early favorite)
Weight: 122 lbs (possible allowance)
Analysis: Silverton Hill-owned standout seeking fourth straight victory after winning the Kitten’s Joy Stakes. Progressive form: three wins in a row with improving figures and strong turf affinity. Twirling Candy stamina ideal for the mile; tactical speed to sit close. Lynch barn peaking— the one to beat on current form, likely to stalk and pounce.

PP 7 – (Additional horse; e.g., Knoty or similar from reports)
Jockey: (TBD)
Trainer: (Competitive)
Morning Line Odds: 15/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Longshot with flashes in recent tries. Could need pace help but has closing upside. Best for supers.

PP 8 – (Field completer; e.g., another import or local)
Jockey: (TBD)
Trainer: (TBD)
Morning Line Odds: 8/1-10/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Outside post with potential to rally wide. Pedigree and works suggest upside—exotics filler.

Summary and Wagering Angles:
Thousandsticks (likely PP 6 or central) stands out as the class horse with streak and form, but Zeppelin (1) offers value inside and Vasy (2) with Prat is dangerous. Argos adds intrigue on comeback. Pace favors stalkers; look for Thousandsticks to control or sit off it. Box exactas/trifectas with the top three-four; include 8/1 shots for value. Superfectas with Thousandsticks on top.

Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, New Orleans, Louisiana

Venue Location: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, LA 70119 (historic thoroughbred track hosting the 2025-2026 winter/spring meet).
Scheduled Post Time: 5:15 PM CT (final race on a nine-race stakes-filled card; first post 12:45 PM CT).
Distance/Surface: 1 mile on the main dirt track.
Purse: $100,000 (includes $50,000 LTBA Supplement); for accredited Louisiana-bred 3-year-old fillies. Weight: 122 lbs (maidens allowed 5 lbs). Limited to 12 starters; winners preferred, then highest lifetime earnings.

Track Conditions: Main dirt track expected to be fast. No rain in the extended forecast; recent dirt races at Fair Grounds have been consistently fast and bias-free.

Expected Weather Conditions: Sunny and mild for late February in New Orleans. Daytime high near 73°F, low around 60°F, light winds (5-10 mph), and 0% chance of precipitation. Perfect conditions for fast dirt times and a comfortable evening crowd—no weather bias expected.

This $100,000 restricted stakes honors Louisiana Broodmare of the Year Charged Cotton and highlights the depth of the state-bred 3-year-old filly division. The nine-horse field features a standout favorite seeking her third straight win, a sharp local allowance winner, and several live longshots from top barns. The one-turn mile should set up with moderate early pace, favoring tactical speed and stalkers who can finish strongly on fast dirt. Top contenders come from the Asmussen, Sharp, and Amoss barns, making this the marquee finale to a blockbuster Saturday.

Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds

PP 1 – Fade to Gold (Bolt d’Oro – Short Iron)
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.
Trainer: Thomas M. Amoss (perennial leading trainer at Fair Grounds with excellent record in restricted stakes).
Morning Line Odds: 6/1
Analysis: Maggi Moss color-bearer with solid recent form over this track. Broke maiden impressively at 6f here in late 2025, then posted a strong placing in an optional claimer stretching to a mile (speed figure ~87). Bolt d’Oro pedigree provides stamina for the route; inside post perfect for a ground-saving trip. Amoss/Pedroza combo wins these races often—live at the price as a logical underneath horse in exotics.

PP 2 – Tied the Knot (Lone Sailor – Wanna Snuggle)
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Trainer: Justin Jeansonne (solid with Louisiana-bred fillies).
Morning Line Odds: 15/1
Analysis: Daniel Family Farms homebred coming off a competitive effort in allowance company at FG (last-race figure 92). Has shown tactical speed but needs to improve her late kick at the stakes level. Lone Sailor influence suggests she’ll handle the mile; Loveberry knows the local surface well. Best as a bomb for superfectas or multi-race wagers if the favorite falters.

PP 3 – Thrill Seeker (Cupid – Louie’s Backyard)
Jockey: Axel Concepcion
Trainer: Joe Sharp (red-hot barn this meet with multiple stakes winners).
Morning Line Odds: 2/1
Analysis: Carl R. Moore Management LLC runner with high-class recent form (last-race figure 92). Broke her maiden in fast time at FG in November 2025 and has since posted sharp placings, including a close second to Braken Poppa in a recent two-turn allowance (Jan. 30, 2026). Cupid progeny often improve with distance; Sharp/Concepcion team is winning at a high clip. The main danger to the favorite—versatile, sharp, and bred to love the mile.

PP 4 – Braken Poppa (Aurelius Maximus – Fab Fox)
Jockey: Brian J. Hernandez, Jr. (top local rider).
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Fame trainer dominating the FG meet).
Morning Line Odds: 8/5 (heavy favorite)
Analysis: Bradley D. Kent & Ken T. Reimer-owned filly seeking her third consecutive victory. Undefeated in two-turn races; most recent: dominant allowance win at FG on fast dirt (speed figure 93, highest in field). Has tactical speed to sit just off the pace or press. Asmussen/Hernandez Jr. combo is money in restricted stakes; pedigree and form scream “win.” The one to beat—expect her to stalk and pounce in the stretch.

PP 5 – Chicka Chick (Keen Ice – Chickamauga)
Jockey: Emanuel Nieves
Trainer: Danny Pish
Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Analysis: Longshot from Duffy’s Racing Stable/Heider Racing. Recent sprints show early speed but she’ll need to stretch out successfully here. Has hit the board in restricted company but lacks the figures of the top choices. Could benefit from a hot pace meltdown; best used in the bottom of exotic tickets at a big price.

PP 6 – Liteupthenite (Aurelius Maximus – City Gone Wild)
Jockey: Isaac Castillo
Trainer: Jayde J. Gelner (good with improving LA-breds).
Morning Line Odds: 6/1
Analysis: Norman Stables LLC filly with upside off a solid recent placing at FG (figure 85). Same sire as the favorite (Aurelius Maximus) and has shown closing ability. Lightly raced with room to improve at the route; Gelner/Castillo can spring surprises. Solid mid-tier play for exactas and trifectas—live underneath.

PP 7 – Jet Ruckus (Combatant – Jet Majesty)
Jockey: Timothy Thornton
Trainer: Alan Klanfer
Morning Line Odds: 15/1
Analysis: Cloyce C. Clark, Jr. homebred with some early zip in maiden/allowance tries. Recent FG efforts show she can be forwardly placed but needs to find more late. Combatant speed blended with stamina on the dam side suits the mile; outside post requires a patient ride. Respectable longshot for deeper tickets if she gets an easy lead.

PP 8 – Complete Wrap (Independence Hall – Corluna)
Jockey: Jansen Melancon
Trainer: Allen Landry (knows the Louisiana circuit well).
Morning Line Odds: 12/1
Analysis: JD Thoroughbreds LLC & Larry J. Romero-owned filly exiting a competitive effort in optional claiming company (figure 86). Independence Hall pedigree screams classic distance potential; has shown ability to finish well. Landry barn can peak in stakes spots—sneaky value play who could improve with the added ground and a clean trip from mid-pack.

PP 9 – Mischievous Cindy (Maximus Mischief – Sky Entry)
Jockey: Mitchell Murrill
Trainer: Joseph M. Foster
Morning Line Odds: 15/1
Analysis: Bockmon Enterprises & The Ravens Rock Farm runner with a couple of placing efforts in restricted sprints/routes at FG/Delta. Last-race figure 81 but has upside stretching out. Maximus Mischief speed with stamina bottom; Murrill is effective at the meet. Longshot who could factor late if the pace is honest—include in supers at the price.

Summary and Wagering Angles:
Braken Poppa (4) is the clear class edge and deserving favorite, but Thrill Seeker (3) offers the best chance to upset at 2/1. Value plays include Fade to Gold (1) and Liteupthenite (6) for the exotics, with Complete Wrap (8) as the overlay bomb. Look for Braken Poppa to stalk and strike, or Thrill Seeker to turn the tables in a rematch scenario. Play exactas and trifectas boxing the top four with the two 6/1 shots; superfectas with the 12/1-15/1 bombs underneath.

Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, New Orleans, Louisiana

Venue Location: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, LA 70119 (iconic historic track in New Orleans hosting the 2025-2026 winter/spring meet).
Scheduled Post Time: 4:45 PM CT (Race 8 on a nine-race stakes-heavy card; first post 12:45 PM CT).
Distance/Surface: 1 1/16 miles on the turf course (rail at 14 feet).
Purse: $100,000 (guaranteed; 60% to winner) for open-company 3-year-olds. Weights: 122 lbs with allowances (non-winners of a sweepstakes at a mile or over on turf -2 lbs; $30k at mile+ on turf -4 lbs; maidens/claiming/starter races excluded from allowances). If taken off turf, contested at 1 1/16 miles on main track.

Track Conditions: Turf course expected to be firm. No rain in the extended forecast, with recent turf races at Fair Grounds running fast and true.

Expected Weather Conditions: Sunny and pleasant for late February in New Orleans. Daytime high near 73°F, low around 60°F, light winds (5-10 mph from the south/southeast), and 0% chance of precipitation. Classic spring-like conditions with no weather bias—perfect for turf racing, firm ground, and fast times.

This $100,000 stakes for open 3-year-olds at a classic turf route distance serves as a key stepping stone for sophomores eyeing graded stakes later in the year (including potential Louisiana Derby path or turf routes). The field of eight is competitive and wide-open on paper, with two sharp local maiden winners from the Brad Cox barn heading the morning line. Pace projects moderate to honest with a couple of committed speed types, setting up well for stalkers and closers. The lone juvenile stakes winner adds class, while several lightly raced types bring upside off recent turf successes or equipment/gelding changes.

Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds

PP 1 – Black Hornet (Essential Quality – Brattata by More Than Ready)
Jockey: Declan Cannon
Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh (sharp with young turf runners; strong Fair Grounds strike rate).
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Weight: 118 lbs
Analysis: Kentucky-bred colt with tactical versatility. Recent form highlights an explosive late run in his local turf debut at Fair Grounds, showing strong closing kick over a similar distance. Pedigree (by champion Essential Quality) screams route potential on grass. Inside post is ideal for a patient ride; expect him to save ground early and rally in the lane. Live longshot who could crash the exotics at a square price—Walsh/Cannon combo adds appeal.

PP 2 – Ramblin (Ghostzapper – Verdura by Smart Strike)
Jockey: Axel Concepcion
Trainer: Bobby C. Barnett (solid with routers; knows the local turf well).
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Weight: 118 lbs
Analysis: Consistent performer profiling as the ideal closer if the pace heats up. Recent efforts show steady improvement on turf, with a strong closing punch in allowance/optional company at Fair Grounds. Ghostzapper stamina on the bottom side suits the 1 1/16 miles perfectly. Should settle mid-pack or farther back before unleashing a late bid. Solid underneath play in multis and a threat to steal it if the front end collapses.

PP 3 – Swift Blade (Quality Road – Atheer by Malibu Moon)
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Trainer: Brad H. Cox (elite barn; dominant at Fair Grounds this meet).
Morning Line Odds: 7/2
Weight: 118 lbs
Analysis: Juddmonte homebred colt exiting a strong turf victory at the exact Black Gold distance at Fair Grounds (maiden breaker with an 82 Beyer). Sharp recent works and pedigree (Quality Road influence) point to further improvement stretching out. Tactical speed to sit just off the pace or press. Cox/Loveberry team is red-hot; one of the top contenders who could wire or stalk to victory. Must respect the class and local sharpness.

PP 4 – McCready (Practical Joke – Walk Close by Tapit)
Trainer: Hugh H. Robertson (proven with turf routers; excellent with improving 3YOs).
Jockey: Tim Thornton
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Weight: 118 lbs
Analysis: Kentucky-bred with upside off progressive turf efforts. Recent races show good late energy and ability to handle the route. Practical Joke speed blended with Tapit stamina is a plus on firm turf. Often overlooked but profiles as a sneaky value play who can improve with added distance or a clean trip. Robertson barn can spring surprises in stakes; include in all exotics tickets at this price.

PP 5 – Touch of Fire (Constitution – Mexican Gold by Medaglia d’Oro)
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.
Trainer: Brad H. Cox (multiple stakes winners this meet; Juddmonte homebred).
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 (likely favorite)
Weight: 118 lbs
Analysis: Highly regarded Triple Crown-nominated colt making his stakes debut off a dominant local maiden-breaking win at exactly 1 1/16 miles on turf at Fair Grounds (top final-time rating in the field, 82 Beyer). Constitution progeny excel routing on grass, and the Medaglia d’Oro dam adds class. Tactical speed, sharp works, and Cox barn momentum make him the one to beat. Pedroza knows the track; versatile enough to lead or stalk. The class horse on paper, though the field is deep.

PP 6 – Beekman Street (Street Sense – Lady Montdore by Medaglia d’Oro)
Jockey: Brian J. Hernandez, Jr. (top local rider).
Trainer: Mike Stidham (high-percentage with turf 3YOs and equipment changes).
Morning Line Odds: 4/1
Weight: 118 lbs
Analysis: Gelding (first start since reported as such) with blinkers off for this. Recent turf tries at Fair Grounds show promise, with Street Sense bottom providing classic stamina. Competitive in maiden/allowance company and figures to improve with the gelding and setup change. Hernandez is money at Fair Grounds; expect a forward, ground-saving trip from mid-pack. Dangerous second choice who could peak here—Stidham factor is real.

PP 7 – Sunrise (Karakontie (JPN) – Spanish Bunny by Unusual Heat)
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Weight: 118 lbs
Analysis: Karakontie colt with grass pedigree (sire a turf champion). Recent form includes solid efforts in turf routes, with blinkers off potentially sharpening him. Has shown ability to close or sit mid-pack. Walsh trains him alongside Black Hornet; could benefit from a hot pace. Respectable at a price for exotics, especially if the track plays kind to closers.

PP 8 – Casa Cielo (Caravaggio – Curlin’s Journey by Curlin)
Jockey: James Graham (veteran turf specialist).
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux (LA-based, knows stakes spots).
Morning Line Odds: 6/1
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: The lone stakes winner in the field—captured the Kitten’s Joy S. at Colonial Downs as a juvenile. Lightly raced since but has the class edge, with Caravaggio speed and Curlin stamina ideal for turf. Recent works point to fitness. Outside post requires a patient ride from Graham, but he can overcome it with a strong late kick. Desormeaux has won big restricted stakes before; must-use in all tickets as the proven performer who could return to best form.

Summary and Wagering Angles:
A wide-open turf route with no runaway favorite. Touch of Fire (5) and Swift Blade (3) from the Cox barn look like the class duo, but Beekman Street (6) (gelded/equipment) and Casa Cielo (8) (stakes winner) offer the best foils. Value abounds with the 8/1 shots—Black Hornet (1) for the rail rally, McCready (4) as the DRF-noted overlay, and Ramblin (2) as the deep closer. Look for a stalk-and-pounce winner on firm turf. Play exactas/trifectas boxing the top four with the two live 8/1 bombs.

Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, New Orleans, Louisiana

Venue Location: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, LA 70119 (historic thoroughbred track in the heart of New Orleans, hosting its 2025-2026 winter/spring meet).
Scheduled Post Time: 4:10 PM CT (Race 7 on a nine-race card; first race approximately 12:45 PM CT).
Distance/Surface: 1 mile and 70 yards on the main dirt track.
Purse: $100,000 (includes $50,000 from LTBA Supplement); for accredited Louisiana-bred 3-year-olds, weight 122 lbs (maidens allowed 5 lbs).

Track Conditions: Main dirt track; expected to be fast. No significant rain in the forecast, and recent racing surfaces at Fair Grounds have been consistently fast and fair.

Expected Weather Conditions: Sunny and mild for late February in New Orleans. Daytime highs in the mid-70s°F (around 73-75°F), overnight lows near 60°F, light winds (5-10 mph), and 0-1% chance of precipitation. Ideal conditions for fast times and comfortable viewing—perfect racing weather with no weather-related biases anticipated.

This restricted stakes for Louisiana-bred sophomores draws a solid, competitive field of eight colts and geldings. It serves as a key local test for 3-year-olds eyeing later spots on the Louisiana-bred circuit or potential progression toward open-company events. The pace should be moderate to honest on the extended one-turn mile-and-a-furlong trip, favoring horses with tactical speed or proven stamina. Top contenders include sharp recent maiden/allowance winners and stakes-placed runners stretching out or returning from layoffs.

Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds

PP 1 – Wherethehitsare (Mitole – Seaside Candy by Twirling Candy)
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.
Trainer: Albert M. Stall, Jr. (strong local barn with excellent Fair Grounds record).
Morning Line Odds: 5/1
Analysis: Louisiana-bred gelding owned and bred by Stewart M. Madison. Career: lightly raced but improving. Most recent: impressive 1st (broke maiden) at 1 mile over this track on Dec. 6, 2025 (time 1:40.84, speed figure ~100), showing stamina and closing ability. Prior: solid 3rd (speed figure 105) in a 6f MSW on Nov. 20, 2025 at FG behind stronger company. Comes off a ~12-week freshening but has already proven he handles the distance. Inside post is a plus for a stalker/closer; Stall/Pedroza combo is always dangerous locally. Strong exotics contender and live at ML price—could sit mid-pack and pounce.

PP 2 – Scar Ship (Midshipman – Hopeful Union by Dixie Union)
Jockey: Kevin Roman
Trainer: Ricky Courville (solid with LA-breds).
Morning Line Odds: 3/1
Analysis: Colt with proven stakes quality. Highlight: won the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile S. (6f, FG, Dec. 13, 2025) in fast time (1:10.6, speed figure 119), defeating several here including Creole Chrome (3rd). Tactical speed should help him secure a forward position from the two-hole. Has the pedigree to stretch out (Midshipman influence), and recent form shows class edge over many. One of the main threats; likely to be prominent early and tough to catch if the pace suits.

PP 3 – Mogumbeaux (Mo Tom – Fiftyshadesofnay by Redding Colliery)
Jockey: Thomas L. Pompell
Trainer: Brett A. Brinkman
Morning Line Odds: 12/1
Analysis: Longshot with upside but needs to step up. Local connections and Mo Tom (solid LA sire) pedigree suit the trip. Has shown flashes in allowance/optional claiming company at FG/Delta but lacks the recent stakes punch of the top choices. Could improve with added distance, but expect him to be mid-pack or better only if pace collapses. Value play for deeper exotics at a price.

PP 4 – Creole Chrome (Volatile – Funny Moon by Malibu Moon)
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (elite rider shipping in).
Trainer: Joe Sharp (high-percentage barn, especially with lightly raced prospects).
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 (likely favorite)
Analysis: Triple Crown-nominated colt from Three Diamonds Farm; the class horse on paper with a flying start (3 starts: 2-0-1, $33k+ earnings). Wins: dominant MSW (6f FG, Nov. 20, 2025, speed 117) and ALW (6f FG, Jan. 18, 2026, speed 122). Placed 3rd in the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile S. (behind Scar Ship). Sharp notes he’s stretching to two turns for the first time here—pedigree (by Volatile, out of a Malibu Moon mare) suggests he’ll handle it, and his speed figures are the highest in the field. Ortiz upgrades the ride significantly. Tactical versatility, sharp recent works, and barn momentum make him the one to beat, though the distance question and outside post (for a potential speed type) add slight intrigue.

PP 5 – Bubby (Blame – Hyper Piper by Old Fashioned)
Jockey: Sofia Vives
Trainer: Sam B. David, Jr. (proven with LA stock).
Morning Line Odds: 5/1
Analysis: Gelding with local ownership (Hernandez et al.). Competitive in recent FG sprints/ routes but yet to break through at stakes level. Tactical speed and Blame stamina pedigree are positives for the 1m70y trip. Consistent placer who could improve with the added ground; Vives knows the track well. Solid mid-tier contender for the exacta/tri.

PP 6 – Mor Force (Mor Spirit – Ready Witted by More Than Ready)
Jockey: Isaac Castillo
Trainer: Jayde J. Gelner
Morning Line Odds: 4/1
Analysis: Has already won at Fair Grounds this prep and hit the board twice more locally/ at Delta Downs. Strong recent form includes a win over this surface and competitive efforts as the favorite in restricted company. Mor Spirit progeny often handle distance well; expect him forwardly placed or pressing the pace. Live second or third choice—dangerous if Creole Chrome struggles stretching out.

PP 7 – Chariot (Aurelius Maximus – Mabeeitstime by Mr. Mabee)
Jockey: Harry Hernandez
Trainer: Shane Wilson (frequent LA-bred stakes participant).
Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Analysis: Longest shot on the board. Has shown some early speed in maiden/allowance tries but lacks the finishing kick or recent wins of the top picks. Wilson barn can spring surprises in restricted spots, but this one will likely need a pace meltdown to factor. Best as a bomb in superfectas.

PP 8 – Thebabeslayer (Collected – Candy Bay by Candy Ride ARG)
Jockey: James Graham
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Fame conditioner with elite strike rate).
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
Analysis: Asmussen adds serious credibility. Recent: broke maiden at FG (recent start, on a softish track per reports), showing good closing kick. Collected pedigree provides stamina for the route. Graham is a patient rider who can exploit trips from the outside. Lightly raced with upside; the “Asmussen factor” makes him a must-include in exotics despite the post. Could be flying late.

Summary and Wagering Angles:
This is a wide-open LA-bred stakes with no dominant standout, but Creole Chrome (4) projects as the deserving favorite due to superior speed figures and class. Scar Ship (2) and Wherethehitsare (1) offer the best foils—Scar Ship for early pace/ class, Wherethehitsare for proven route ability. Mor Force (6) and Thebabeslayer (8) round out the key contenders for multi-race wagers or exotics. Look for value underneath with the Asmussen and Stall runners.

Fair Grounds Race Course – New Orleans, Louisiana
$100,000 Guaranteed (includes $37,500 LTBA supplement) – 1 1/16 miles (turf) – For accredited Louisiana-bred 4-year-olds and upward
Scheduled Post Time: 3:35 PM CT (4:35 PM ET)

Fair Grounds Race Course is located at 1751 Gentilly Blvd in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Edward J. Johnston Memorial Stakes is the 46th running of this traditional mid-winter turf test honoring the longtime Louisiana horseman. It highlights Louisiana-bred older horses on a blockbuster Saturday card that also features the Red Camelia, Star Guitar, Black Gold, and Charged Cotton Stakes.

Expected Weather Conditions
Mild and pleasant late-February weather with highs in the mid-70s°F (75–78°F / 24–26°C) by post time. Skies mostly sunny to partly cloudy with light winds (5–10 mph from the south/southeast). Precipitation chance 10% or less (isolated brief shower possible but unlikely to impact the turf). Overnight lows in the mid-50s°F. Turf course is currently firm/good and should remain firm — ideal conditions for fast turf racing with no significant rain in the forecast.

Track Conditions: Main turf course (rail at 14 feet) – expected firm. Fair Grounds’ winter turf has played fair to slightly inside-favoring this meet, with stalkers and mid-pack runners excelling off honest early fractions. No extreme bias noted.

Full Field with Post Positions, Morning-Line Odds, Jockeys, Trainers, Weights:

Detailed Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer:

PP 1 – Sippin On Gin (Mr. Money – …, 5YO Gelding, 6/1, 118 lbs, J: Axel Concepcion, T: W. Bret Calhoun)
Consistent Louisiana-bred closer who has hit the board in several recent optional-claiming and allowance races on turf at Fair Grounds. Concepcion (a meet leader) should have him saving ground from the rail. Calhoun is sharp with his home-state runners and loves cutting this one back to 1 1/16 miles. Live underneath horse at square odds; expect a late rally if the pace is honest.

PP 2 – Allnight Moonlight (Ransom the Moon – …, 6YO Gelding, 3/1, 124 lbs, J: Timothy Thornton, T: Samuel Breaux)
The clear morning-line favorite and defending champion (won the 2025 renewal by two lengths). He also took the Louisiana Champions Day Turf in December and has been dominant on the local turf this winter. Thornton knows him perfectly and will likely sit a stalking trip just off the pace. Breaux has the barn in top form. High weight is no concern for this class horse who loves the Fair Grounds turf. The one to beat.

PP 3 – Cajun Mitole (Mitole – …, 5YO Gelding, 5/1, 118 lbs, J: Isaac Castillo, T: Brett A. Brinkman)
Improving sort with blinkers added for the first time. He pressed the pace and held on well in his last allowance score here. Castillo retains the mount and should send him forward from post 3. Brinkman hits at a solid rate with his stakes runners at the meet. Tactical speed makes him dangerous in a field with limited early zip; live contender at 5/1.

PP 4 – Good and Stout (Coal Front – …, 5YO Gelding, 20/1, 118 lbs, J: Marcelino Pedroza, Jr., T: Carrol J. Castille)
Longshot with occasional big efforts but inconsistent at this level. Pedroza, Jr. is capable, but he’ll need a pace meltdown to factor. Best used in the superfecta only.

PP 5 – Wicked Secret (Mendelssohn – …, 5YO Gelding, 8/1, 120 lbs, J: Devin H. Magnon, T: Whitney J. Zeringue, Jr.)
Consistent placer who was a solid third in a recent stakes try here. Magnon knows the local turf well. Zeringue, Jr. barn is always dangerous in these restricted stakes. Mid-pack trip expected; solid exotic filler at 8/1.

PP 6 – Fran’s Star (Star Guitar – …, 6YO Gelding, 8/1, 120 lbs, J: Emanuel Nieves, T: Shane Wilson)
Veteran with multiple wins over the course and distance. Nieves will look to have him forwardly placed. Wilson knows Fair Grounds inside-out. Live longshot chance if he gets an easy lead; must respect at 8/1.

PP 7 – Benoit (Closing Argument – …, 6YO Gelding, 20/1, 118 lbs, J: James Graham, T: Joe O. Duhon)
Deep closer who can pick up pieces late but faces a tough task here. Graham is a veteran rider, but at 20/1 he’s best in the bottom of multis.

PP 8 – Letmikefigureitout (Daaher – …, 6YO Gelding, 8/1, 118 lbs, J: Jansen Melancon, T: Alan Klanfer)
Improving gelding with a strong recent optional-claiming win at the distance. Melancon should have him stalking from mid-pack. Klanfer hits occasional prices at the meet. Live at 8/1 with upside.

PP 9 – Boss of All Bosses (Street Boss – …, 5YO Gelding, 8/1, 120 lbs, J: Ben Curtis, T: Michael J. Maker)
Maker shipper with solid turf form elsewhere. Curtis is riding well. Outside post is fine for a stalker/closer. Dangerous exotic threat at 8/1.

PP 10 – Laser Clad (Mo Town – …, 5YO Gelding, 20/1, 120 lbs, J: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr., T: Keith G. Bourgeois)
Local veteran who can flash speed but is overmatched on paper. Hernandez, Jr. is a meet leader, but at 20/1 he’s a deep bomb.

Overall Outlook and Betting Angles:
This is a competitive Louisiana-bred turf stakes with a standout in Allnight Moonlight (#2), the defending champion in peak form. The pace should be moderate-to-honest with Fran’s Star (#6) and possibly Cajun Mitole (#3) involved early, setting it up for stalkers like Allnight Moonlight, Letmikefigureitout (#8), and Boss of All Bosses (#9). The turf is expected firm and fair, favoring tactical speed and mid-pack runners.

Fair Grounds Race Course – New Orleans, Louisiana
$100,000 Guaranteed (includes $37,500 LTBA supplement) – 1 mile (turf) – For accredited Louisiana-bred fillies and mares 4 years old and upward
Scheduled Post Time: 12:45 PM CT (1:45 PM ET)

Fair Grounds Race Course is located at 1751 Gentilly Blvd in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Red Camelia Stakes is a traditional mid-winter turf test for Louisiana-bred distaffers and serves as a key local stakes on a blockbuster Saturday card that also features the Black Gold and Star Guitar Stakes.

Expected Weather Conditions

Mild and pleasant for late February with highs in the mid-70s°F (around 75–78°F / 24–26°C) by post time. Skies mostly sunny to partly cloudy with light winds (5–12 mph from the south/southeast). Precipitation chance 10–20% (isolated pop-up shower possible but unlikely to affect the turf). Overnight lows in the mid-50s°F. Turf course is currently listed as firm/good and should remain that way — no significant rain in the 48-hour forecast. Track temperatures ideal for turf racing.

Track Conditions: Main turf course (rail at 14 feet) – expected firm. Fair Grounds’ winter turf has played fair to slightly speed-favoring inside this meet, with stalkers and mid-pack runners getting their chance when early fractions are honest. No extreme bias noted in recent condition books.

Full Field with Post Positions, Morning-Line Odds, Jockeys, Trainers, Weights:

Detailed Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer:

PP 1 – Highly Wicked (Wicked Strong – Highly Confused, 6YO Mare, 5/2, 117 lbs, J: Marcelino Pedroza, Jr., T: Sam B. David, Jr.)
Consistent Louisiana-bred with multiple stakes placings on turf. She was a game second in the 2025 edition of this race and comes off a solid allowance win here in January. Pedroza, Jr. (a meet leader) knows her well and should have her stalking from the rail. David, Jr. is sharp with his homebreds at Fair Grounds. The inside post is a plus on a firm course; she’ll be in the mix throughout. Strong exotic player at 5/2.

PP 2 – Kalil (Practical Joke – …, 5YO Mare, 8/1, 119 lbs, J: Jareth Loveberry, T: Jeff Delhomme)
Former claimer who has improved steadily for ex-NFL quarterback-turned-trainer Jeff Delhomme. She rallied for a convincing optional-claiming score at this distance last out. Loveberry is riding confidently at the meet. She has tactical speed and the ability to sit a perfect mid-pack trip. Live at 8/1 with upside in a small field.

PP 3 – Tommie G (Court Vision – Adrianne G, 5YO Mare, 6/1, 117 lbs, J: Colby J. Hernandez, T: Patricia G. West)
Veteran with a win over this course and distance earlier in the meet. She pressed the pace and held on gamely in her last stakes attempt. Hernandez retains the mount and should send her forward from post 3. West knows the Fair Grounds turf inside-out. Solid underneath horse at 6/1.

PP 4 – Saved by Grace (Star Guitar – …, 5YO Mare, 12/1, 117 lbs, J: Kevin Roman, T: Juan A. Larrosa)
Larrosa trainee with lower recent figures but a history of hitting the board in restricted stakes. She’ll be a closer and needs the pace to collapse. Roman is capable on the turf; best used in the superfecta at long odds.

PP 5 – Jus Press Star (Star Guitar – …, 6YO Mare, 20/1, 117 lbs, J: Sofia Vives, T: Joe O. Duhon)
Deep closer with occasional big efforts but inconsistent. Vives gives her a chance, but this is a tough spot. Longshot play only.

PP 6 – Rising Inflation (Mitole – …, 5YO Mare, 4/5, 123 lbs, J: Isaac Castillo, T: Jonathan Wong)
The clear morning-line favorite and most logical winner. She has been dominant this winter: back-to-back wins in allowance/optional company here, including a sharp score at a mile on turf with a career-best figure. Wong (hot barn) and Castillo (meet leader) team up again. She has tactical speed, loves the Fair Grounds turf, and carries the high weight like a good thing. The one to beat in a compact field.

PP 7 – Island Gold (Whence – …, 5YO Mare, 15/1, 117 lbs, J: Carlos Perez, T: Juan A. Larrosa)
Larrosa’s second entry and a consistent placer at this level. She’ll be forwardly placed from the outside. Perez knows her well. Live longshot chance to hit the board if the favorite gets pressured early.

Overall Outlook and Betting Angles:
This is a high-quality, small-field Louisiana-bred turf stakes with a standout in Rising Inflation (#6), who brings the best recent form, ideal post, and top connections. The pace should be moderate-to-honest with Tommie G (#3) and possibly Kalil (#2) involved early, setting it up perfectly for the favorite or stalkers like Highly Wicked (#1). The turf is expected firm and fair, favoring tactical speed inside-to-mid posts.