Scheduled Post Time for Race 10: 4:36 PM CT (Louisiana Derby Day full card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The Muniz Memorial Classic (named for longtime turf trainer Albert M. Stall Sr.) is a premier older-horse turf route on Louisiana Derby Day and awards an automatic berth to the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) and Arlington Million (G1).

• Distance: 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on turf
• Purse: $300,000
• Surface: Turf
• Field Size: 7 horses (no scratches reported)
• Conditions: For 4-year-olds and upward; weights 118–122 lbs (Lasix permitted for all)

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Classic New Orleans spring weather with mostly sunny to sunny skies and zero to minimal precipitation chance (0–8%). Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–81°F at post time), lows in the low-to-mid 60s°F overnight. Light winds (5–10 mph). The turf course has been dry for weeks and will race firm (good to firm). This setup favors tactical speed, clean trips, and proven grass routers who can handle firm going — expect a moderate pace with closing ability at a premium. No wind or temperature extremes anticipated.

Full Field Analysis (Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form)

All carry scale weights with Lasix. Recent form drawn from key preps (Fair Grounds Stakes G3, Tampa Bay Stakes G3, Pegasus World Cup Turf G1, etc.).

PP 1 – Chasing the Crown (KY) (7yo horse, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
• Trainer: Michael J. Maker (sharp with shippers and turf routers)
• Owner: Paradise Farms Corp., David Staudacher & Angelo Carlesimo
• Breeding: Skipshot – La Belle Marquet
• Recent Form: Consistent mid-pack performer coming off allowance/lower-stakes placings; solid but facing a class jump.
  Analysis: Rail post helps early positioning on firm turf. Maker/Loveberry combo is live at a price, but he lacks the top-end stakes punch of the favorites. Longshot exotic filler at 12/1.

PP 2 – Montador (KY) (4yo colt, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (turf specialist)
• Trainer: Michael Stidham (sending a sharp two-horse entry)
• Owner: Godolphin, LLC
• Breeding: Nyquist – Lady Montdore
• Recent Form: Troubled-trip 2nd (boxed in, rallied gamely) to Lagynos in the recent G3 Fair Grounds Stakes; earlier won the Woodchopper Stakes here. Career 8-3-3-0 with $314K earnings.
  Analysis: Stidham notes a better trip could flip the script on his last. Tactical speed and Godolphin class make him dangerous. Strong each-way chance at 7/2 — one of the live Stidham duo.

PP 3 – Idratherbeblessed (KY) (6yo gelding, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (hot locally)
• Trainer: Chris A. Hartman (consistent with statebred/allowance types stepping up)
• Owner: JD Thoroughbreds, LLC & Wayne Scherr
• Breeding: Unified – Celestial Smile
• Recent Form: Game but outclassed in recent restricted stakes; honest grinder.
  Analysis: Veteran with local experience but figures say he’s a notch below. Needs pace meltdown; respectable 12/1 longshot for minor awards.

PP 4 – Lagynos (KY) (5yo horse, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (elite turf rider)
• Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (perennial FG powerhouse)
• Owner: HRH Prince Sultan Bin Mishal Al Saud
• Breeding: Kantharos – Steamy
• Recent Form: Dominant recent winner of the G3 Fair Grounds Stakes (beat Montador); track specialist with multiple FG wins. High HRN figures.
  Analysis: Asmussen/Ortiz tandem fires here often. Tactical versatility and recent class edge on firm turf make him a major threat. Co-favorite at 2/1 — the one to beat on paper.

PP 5 – Tom’s Magic (ON) (4yo colt, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Luis Saez
• Trainer: Michael Stidham (double threat with Montador)
• Owner: CJ Thoroughbreds & Mo Speed Racing
• Breeding: Justify – (strong route pedigree)
• Recent Form: Game 2nd in the G3 Tampa Bay Stakes (fresh off layoff); prior wins include the Black Gold at FG and Breeders’ Stakes. Versatile (on or off pace).
  Analysis: Stidham believes the extra distance helps; developing 4yo with upside. Saez’s timing suits firm turf. Live at 5/1 — the other half of the dangerous Stidham entry.

PP 6 – Faber (ON) (4yo gelding, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Florent Geroux (local turf ace)
• Trainer: Gary M. Scherer (solid with improving types)
• Owner: Anderson Farms
• Breeding: Improbable – (turf influence)
• Recent Form: Improving allowance winner (Feb. 12 at FG); stepping up in class.
  Analysis: Light weight and Geroux help, but recent figures suggest he’s overmatched. 15/1 longshot with minor exotic appeal if he improves again.

PP 7 – Program Trading (GB) (6yo ridgling, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Flavien Prat (world-class closer)
• Trainer: Chad C. Brown (turf master; multiple Muniz wins)
• Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc.
• Breeding: Lope de Vega (IRE) – (elite grass pedigree)
• Recent Form: Perplexing 5th in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) after strong prior form; rebound candidate with 8-week freshening.
  Analysis: Brown/Prat combo is lethal on firm turf. Outside post no issue; class edge and history suggest big bounce-back. Clear 9/5 morning-line favorite and the horse to beat.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Recent G3 FG Stakes performers and Brown-trained horses dominate this event on firm turf.
• Stidham Factor: The trainer’s duo (Montador & Tom’s Magic) offers excellent coverage against the top choices.
• Small-Field Dynamics: Only 7 runners = clean trips critical; expect honest pace with Lagynos/Program Trading prominent. Heavy money on the 9/5 and 2/1 favorites.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Program Trading (#7) and Lagynos (#4), with Montador (#2) and Tom’s Magic (#5) underneath for value.

Final Prediction

This compact Grade II on perfect firm turf sets up a thriller. Program Trading (PP 7) is the class horse and should rebound strongly for Brown/Prat, but Lagynos (PP 4) is razor-sharp locally and the biggest danger. The Stidham pair adds depth — expect a stirring stretch battle with the top four separating late.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 9: 4:04 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The New Orleans Classic is one of the premier older-horse dirt routes on the calendar and the traditional undercard highlight on Louisiana Derby Day. It honors Louisiana racing and serves as a key stakes for 4-year-olds and up.

• Distance: 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs)
• Purse: $500,000
• Surface: Main Track Dirt
• Field Size: 6 horses (no scratches reported)
• Conditions: Grade II for 4-year-olds and upward; weights 118–124 lbs (Lasix permitted)

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Mostly sunny to clear skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–81°F at post time), lows in the low-to-mid 60s°F overnight. Light winds (5–10 mph), moderate humidity, and zero chance of precipitation. The dirt track has been dry for weeks and will race fast. This setup favors speed and tactical versatility with a strong pace likely; clean trips and ability to rate or close will be premium on a speed-favoring surface.

Full Field Analysis (Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form)

All horses carry scale weights. Recent form is summarized from key preps and figures (HRN/Beyer-style noted where available). The local Louisiana-bred star and defending champion dominates the market.

PP 1 – Westwood (4YO gelding, 124 lbs)

• Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (top rider with FG stakes wins)
• Trainer: Peter Eurton (new barn after transfer from John Shirreffs; sharp with shippers)
• Owner: C R K Stable (Lee Searing)
• Breeding: Authentic – Indian Bay
• Recent Form: Front-running winner of the San Pasqual Stakes (recent West Coast stakes); strong figures (HRN ~117). First start off the claim/transfer.
  Analysis: Outside post in a small field is fine, but the 10-1 ML reflects the class jump and new trainer. Gaffalione’s speed will help early; live longshot if he clears and relaxes on the fast dirt.

PP 2 – Touchuponastar (7YO gelding, 122 lbs) – Defending Champion

• Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (retained mount; red-hot locally)
• Trainer: Jeff Delhomme (homebred connections; knows every nuance of FG)
• Owner: Set-Hut, LLC (Jake C. Delhomme)
• Breeding: Star Guitar – Touch Magic
• Recent Form: Dominant repeat winner of the LA Bred Premier Night Championship S. (easy score, HRN 134); multiple facile wins vs. overmatched LA-breds since last year’s Classic victory over Sierra Leone. Lifetime 27-20-4-2 with nearly $1.76M earnings.
  Analysis: The 6-5 morning-line favorite and clear standout. Four-time Louisiana Champions Day Classic winner; proven at this exact trip and surface. Pedroza Jr. knows the trip; he should stalk or press and dominate on fast dirt. The one to beat — heavy action expected.

PP 3 – Accelerize (4YO colt, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: John Velazquez (elite big-race rider)
• Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (two-time Classic entrant; barn firing)
• Owner: Spendthrift Farm LLC & Repole Stable
• Breeding: Omaha Beach – (strong pedigree for route)
• Recent Form: Re-rallied to win the Louisiana S. (G3) by a neck over Just a Touch; then 2nd in the Mineshaft (G3) vs. Hit Show (HRN ~112). Two strong FG winter tries.
  Analysis: 3-1 second choice. Pletcher/Velazquez combo excels in routes. Tactical speed and closing kick suit the fast track; major threat if Touchuponastar over-races early. Strong exotic anchor.

PP 4 – Life and Times (5YO gelding, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Flavien Prat (world-class closer)
• Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (double threat today)
• Owner: Michael B. Tabor
• Breeding: Justify – (Justify pedigree for stamina)
• Recent Form: Blitzed allowance foes early; 3rd in the Fred W. Hooper (G3) (HRN ~115). Lightly raced but improving.
  Analysis: 6-1 value. Pletcher/Prat tandem is dangerous; light weight helps. Needs a pace setup but can close strongly on firm dirt. Solid underneath play.

PP 5 – Not This Boy (5YO gelding, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (FG stakes specialist)
• Trainer: William D. Cowans (consistent with Kentucky shippers)
• Owner: Zimmer Ridge Ranch
• Breeding: Not This Time – (solid route pedigree)
• Recent Form: Won the Tenacious Stakes at FG (Dec. 20) while withstanding pressure; strong 5YO debut (HRN ~122).
  Analysis: 7-2 live chance. Ortiz gives him every opportunity; proven FG winner with tactical speed. Could press the favorite and be in the mix throughout.

PP 6 – Corporate Power (5YO horse, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Luis Saez (Asmussen regular)
• Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (perennial FG leader; stakes machine)
• Owner: Courtlandt Farms, LLC
• Breeding: Curlin – (Curlin stamina influence)
• Recent Form: Dominant allowance win at FG (Feb. 19, HRN 126); sharp local form.
  Analysis: 8-1 with upside. Asmussen/Saez combo wins big races here often; light weight and recent figure make him a dangerous closer on fast dirt. Live longshot for exotics.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Defending champions and local speed have dominated recent editions on fast dirt.
• Pletcher/Asmussen Factor: Top barns (Pletcher has two, Asmussen one) account for most wins in this race type.
• Small-Field Dynamics: Only 6 runners means every trip counts; expect honest pace with Westwood/Touchuponastar prominent early. Heavy money already on the 6-5 favorite.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Touchuponastar (#2) and Accelerize (#3), with Not This Boy (#5) and Corporate Power (#6) underneath for value.

Final Prediction

This is a compact, high-quality Grade II on perfect fast dirt. Touchuponastar (PP 2) is the standout with his defending title, recent dominance, and local affinity — he should repeat. Accelerize (PP 3) and Not This Boy (PP 5) are the primary threats in a likely thrilling stretch battle.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 8: 3:32 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The Costa Rising Stakes honors a longtime Louisiana racing supporter and serves as the opening leg of the estimated $1 million All-Stakes Pick 5 on Louisiana Derby Day. It is restricted to Louisiana-bred statebred turf sprinters.

• Distance: 5½ furlongs on turf
• Purse: $100,000
• Surface: Turf
• Field Size: 12 starters (13 entered; Buy the Rights is AE)
• Conditions: For 3-year-olds and upward; weights 119–125 lbs (Lasix permitted)

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Mostly clear to sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–80°F at post time), lows in the low 60s°F overnight. Light winds (5–10 mph), moderate humidity, and zero chance of precipitation. The turf course has been dry for weeks and will race firm (good to firm). This setup strongly favors tactical speed, sharp early foot, and horses with proven turf sprint form over pure closers. No wind or temperature extremes are expected to alter strategy — classic fast-turf sprint conditions at Fair Grounds.

Full Field Analysis

Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form

All horses are Louisiana-bred. Morning-line odds are official. Recent form is highlighted via key recent starts and figures.

PP 1 – Nine Part (5YO horse, 121 lbs)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (top-tier rider)
• Trainer: Joseph R. Felks
• Owner: Keith Plaisance
• Breeding: Leofric – Alva
• Recent Form: Won last turf start (Feb. 21, FG, 5½f) by 2¼ lengths over several rivals in this field; 5-time winner, never out of the money in 6 starts, never lost at Fair Grounds.
  Analysis: The clear 3-1 morning-line favorite. Taking on stakes company for just the second turf start but dominates the profile with speed and FG affinity. Ortiz gives him every chance from the rail. The one to beat — expect him to press or stalk and prove too strong late on firm turf.

PP 2 – Strong Promise (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Jansen Melancon
• Trainer: Allen Landry
• Owner: Baronne Farms, LLC
• Breeding: Broken Vow – St. Jean
• Recent Form: 8-time winner; most recent victory in the Premier Night Sprint at Delta Downs; 2 wins from 3 turf starts.
  Analysis: Solid 6-1 chance. Landry’s barn is always dangerous with statebred sprinters, and the recent sprint win shows sharp form. Tactical speed suits the firm turf; live exotic play and a major threat if Nine Part falters early.

PP 3 – Hay Jude (4YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Isaac Castillo
• Trainer: Thomas M. Amoss (local powerhouse)
• Owner: Maggi Moss
• Breeding: Aurelius Maximus – Sweet Alice Benbow
• Recent Form: Consistent performer with recent placings in restricted events; Amoss barn firing on all cylinders.
  Analysis: 5-1 second choice. Amoss/Castillo combo excels at FG, and the 4yo has upside on firm turf. Tactical versatility makes him a key player underneath the favorites in exotics.

PP 4 – Sassi D (6YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: James Graham
• Trainer: Lee Thomas
• Owner: Elite Thoroughbred Racing, LLC
• Breeding: Sassicaia – Diane C
• Recent Form: Veteran with three straight tries at this level; honest mid-pack runner.
  Analysis: 10-1 mid-shot. Graham knows the course; needs pace help but can pick up pieces late on firm ground. Respectable each-way value in a wide-open sprint.

PP 5 – Monsieur Candy (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
• Trainer: Larry Rivelli (sharp with shippers)
• Owner: JKX Racing
• Breeding: Catalina Red – Cajun Rocket
• Recent Form: Competitive in recent turf sprints; improving figures.
  Analysis: Live at 9-2. Rivelli’s horses often peak for stakes, and Loveberry is riding hot. Strong mid-pack threat with closing kick on firm turf — one of the top win contenders at a square price.

PP 6 – Clear as a Bele (6YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Axel Concepcion
• Trainer: David Terre
• Owner: Dark Horse Investment LLC & Lane Cortez
• Breeding: Clearly Now – My Friend Bele
• Recent Form: Steady but facing tougher class here.
  Analysis: 15-1 longshot. Concepcion can get him a good trip, but recent figures suggest he’s a notch below the top four. Minor exotic chance at a price.

PP 7 – Big Chopper (7YO horse, 125 lbs)

• Jockey: Jamison Mudd
• Trainer: Jayde J. Gelner (owner-trainer)
• Owner: Jayde J. Gelner
• Breeding: Shackleford – Miss Well Molded
• Recent Form: Won last start at one mile; won this race in 2023 after placing in the Eddie Johnston Memorial Stakes; sharp current form.
  Analysis: 15-1 with big upside. Course specialist and sharp right now — the defending champ (2023) could spring a huge upset on firm turf. Respect at a price.

PP 8 – Chad’s Flashy Ways (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Juan P. Vargas
• Trainer: Ronnie P. Ward
• Owner: Claudio Solis
• Breeding: Sky Mesa – Flashy Ways
• Recent Form: Recent allowance placings but needs more.
  Analysis: 20-1 outsider. Ward can get a live longshot, but class and recent figures point to a tough spot. Best for deeper exotics.

PP 9 – Sounds Like Power (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr.
• Trainer: Randy Degeyter Jr.
• Owner: Darrin Dares
• Breeding: Power Jam – Street Sounds
• Recent Form: Consistent statebred sprinter with recent placings.
  Analysis: 8-1 value play. Pedroza Jr. and the barn have local success; tactical speed could land him in the mix on firm going.

PP 10 – Smash It (4YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Ben Curtis
• Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
• Owner: Scott Bryant et al.
• Breeding: Star Guitar – Hennesey Smash
• Recent Form: Improving with recent turf tries.
  Analysis: 10-1 live longshot. Walsh/Curtis tandem is dangerous; 4yo has upside and could improve for this spot.

PP 11 – Take Charge J J (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Emanuel Nieves
• Trainer: Eric Henry
• Owner: Roy Investments, LLC
• Breeding: Take Charge Indy – All Woman
• Recent Form: Game but outclassed in recent stakes preps.
  Analysis: 20-1 longshot. Needs a perfect trip but lacks the top-end speed here.

PP 12 – Dr. My Eyes (3YO colt, 112 lbs)

• Jockey: Luis Saez (elite closer)
• Trainer: Grant T. Forster
• Owner: Intrepid Thoroughbreds, LLC
• Breeding: Maxfield – You Caught My Eye
• Recent Form: Youngster with upside but light on experience.
  Analysis: 20-1 with Saez aboard. The 3yo gets weight relief and could improve, but faces older, battle-tested sprinters.

AE – Buy the Rights (4YO gelding, 119 lbs) – Michelle Lovell barn; would need scratches to run.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Recent turf winners and FG specialists dominate this restricted sprint.
• Barn Power: Amoss, Rivelli, Landry, and Gelner have strong recent stakes success here.
• Small-Field Sprint Dynamics: Firm turf + 5½f means early speed and clean trips are critical; expect an honest pace. Heavy money on the 3-1 favorite Nine Part, with value shifting to 9-2 Monsieur Candy and past winner Big Chopper.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Nine Part (#1) and Monsieur Candy (#5), with Big Chopper (#7), Strong Promise (#2), and Hay Jude (#3) underneath.

Final Prediction

This is a wide-open, high-quality statebred turf sprint on perfect firm ground. Nine Part (PP 1) is the standout with his recent dominant turf win and perfect FG record — he should take this first stakes test. Monsieur Candy (PP 5) and course specialist Big Chopper (PP 7) are the live alternatives at square prices. Expect a thrilling finish with several in contention turning for home.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 6: 2:30 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The Tom Benson Memorial Stakes is a key undercard feature on Louisiana Derby Day, honoring the late New Orleans Saints and Pelicans owner. This is a listed stakes for older fillies and mares on the turf.

• Distance: 1 1/16 miles (about 8.5 furlongs) on turf
• Purse: $150,000
• Surface: Turf (firm conditions expected)
• Field Size: 7 fillies and mares, all carrying 118 lbs (Lasix permitted)
• Conditions: For fillies and mares 4 years old and upward

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s°F (77–81°F at post time), lows overnight in the mid-50s°F. Light southwest winds of 5–10 mph, humidity moderate, and zero chance of precipitation. The turf course has had no rain for weeks and will race firm (good to firm). This setup favors tactical speed, clean trips, and horses with proven turf stamina and closing ability over pure front-runners. No wind or temperature extremes expected to alter strategy.

Full Field Analysis

Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form

All horses are 4–6YO fillies/mares carrying 118 lbs.

PP 1 – Ready for Shirl (KY) (5YO mare)

• Jockey: Brian J. Hernandez Jr. (Fair Grounds stakes specialist)
• Trainer: Dallas Stewart (hot barn on turf; multiple graded wins locally)
• Breeding: More Than Ready – Perfect Shirl (Perfect Soul)
• Recent Form: 11th (troubled trip) in the 2026 Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) at Gulfstream after winning the G2 Canadian at Woodbine last summer; first start for Stewart. HRN figure ~103.
  Analysis: Strong class edge with G2-winning form. Inside post is ideal on firm turf for a stalking trip. Hernandez Jr. knows the course; live threat at 7-2 if she shakes off the Pegasus trouble.

PP 2 – Sophie’s Cruiser (KY) (5YO mare)

• Jockey: Isaac Castillo (rising star with momentum at FG)
• Trainer: Brett A. Brinkman (solid with mid-tier turf mares)
• Breeding: Catalina Cruiser – Causeway Carolyn (Giant’s Causeway)
• Recent Form: Competitive but unplaced in recent listed stakes; consistent mid-pack runner. HRN figure ~104.
  Analysis: Longshot at 10-1. Needs pace help and a perfect rail trip; lacks the top-end class of the favorites but is honest and could hit the board at a price on firm ground.

PP 3 – Way to Be Marie (KY) (5YO mare) – Defending Champion

• Jockey: Luis Saez (retained mount; elite closer)
• Trainer: Eddie Kenneally (new barn after $750K Keeneland purchase by Twin Oaks Bloodstock; previously Rob Atras)
• Breeding: Not This Time – Woman of the World (Henrythenavigator)
• Recent Form: Signature win here last spring; graded stakes-placed with strong FG turf record. HRN figure ~87 but course specialist.
  Analysis: The 3-1 morning-line favorite and sentimental pick. Defending champ returns sharper for new connections. Saez’s timing is perfect for firm turf; the one to beat if she replicates her 2025 FG effort.

PP 4 – For Love and Honor (KY) (5YO mare)

• Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (top rider in turf stakes)
• Trainer: Joe Sharp (excellent local record with turf fillies)
• Breeding: Sky Mesa – Calidez (Spring At Last)
• Recent Form: Consistent placer in recent listed/allowance turf races; improving figures. HRN figure ~113 (highest in field).
  Analysis: Solid 5-1 chance. Sharp/Gaffalione combo is dangerous at FG. Tactical speed suits the firm course; strong exotic play underneath the top choices.

PP 5 – Cupids Crush (MN) (6YO mare)

• Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (reliable on turf)
• Trainer: Hugh H. Robertson (patient with older mares)
• Breeding: Cupid – Dazzlingsweetheart (Dazzling Falls)
• Recent Form: Steady performer in FG turf stakes; recent placings but needs a bounce. HRN figure ~108.
  Analysis: 5-1 co-third choice. Veteran with local experience; can pick up pieces late on firm ground but faces tougher class here.

PP 6 – Sea To Sky (IRE) (4YO filly)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (Eclipse-level rider; turf master)
• Trainer: Cherie DeVaux (rising star with European imports)
• Breeding: Without Parole (GB) – Beyond the Sea (Sea The Stars)
• Recent Form: Competitive in recent U.S. turf stakes; improving with age. HRN figure ~90.
  Analysis: Co-favorite at 7-2 with top connections. Ortiz/DeVaux tandem excels on firm turf; outside post is no issue. Major contender with upside.

PP 7 – Gavea (GER) (5YO mare)

• Jockey: Flavien Prat (world-class closer)
• Trainer: Albert M. Stall Jr. (multiple FG stakes winner; local legend)
• Breeding: Gleneagles (IRE) – Goiania (GB) (Oasis Dream)
• Recent Form: Entered off the 2026 Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes; consistent European-style performer. HRN figure ~106.
  Analysis: 6-1 value play. Stall/Prat combo is lethal at Fair Grounds. Outside post suits her closing style on firm turf; live longshot with European pedigree edge.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Defending champions and G2-placed horses have dominated recent editions of this race on firm turf.
• Turf Specialists: Trainers Stewart, Sharp, DeVaux, and Stall have combined for the bulk of recent wins in FG turf stakes.
• Small-Field Dynamics: Only 7 runners means clean trips are critical; expect a moderate pace with Ready for Shirl and Way to Be Marie prominent early. Heavy money already on the 3-1 and 7-2 favorites.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Way to Be Marie (#3), Ready for Shirl (#1), and Sea To Sky (#6), with Gavea (#7) and For Love and Honor (#4) underneath for value.

Final Prediction

This is a high-quality, evenly matched turf stakes on perfect firm ground. Way to Be Marie (PP 3) is the defending champion and sentimental favorite, but Ready for Shirl (PP 1) and Sea To Sky (PP 6) offer the strongest class and connections. Expect a thrilling stretch battle with the top three separating themselves late.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 2: 12:30 PM CT (full card begins 10:00 AM CT; Race 1 at 12:00 PM CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

This is a restricted stakes for accredited Louisiana-bred 3-year-old fillies, part of the loaded Louisiana Derby Day undercard. It serves as a key local prep and honors Louisiana breeding with a spot on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks for qualifiers.

• Distance: 1 Mile 70 Yards (about 1 1/16 miles)
• Purse: $100,000 Guaranteed
• Surface: Main Track Dirt
• Field Size: 7 fillies (no scratches reported)
• Conditions: For accredited Louisiana-bred 3-year-old fillies; all carry 122 lbs; Lasix (L) for all

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Classic New Orleans spring weather with zero rain in the forecast for race day or the preceding week. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 77–81°F at post time), lows in the mid-to-upper 50s°F overnight. Light southwest winds of 5–10 mph, mostly sunny skies, and humidity around 50–60%. The dirt track is expected to race fast — dry conditions all week plus no precipitation mean a firm, speed-favoring surface with quick times and minimal bias. No wind or temperature issues anticipated; this setup strongly favors horses with proven early-to-mid pace and dirt speed over pure closers.

Full Field Analysis

Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form

All horses are Louisiana-bred 3-year-old fillies carrying 122 lbs with Lasix. Recent form is highlighted via HRN speed/ratings figures from local preps (many coming off the recent LA Broodmare of the Year Lipstick Junky restricted stakes or similar). The Asmussen/Ortiz combo and high-rated horses dominate the market.

PP 1 – Thrill Seeker (Cupid – Louie’s Backyard) (3yo filly)

• Jockey: Axel Concepcion
• Trainer: Joe Sharp (strong local barn; excellent with first-time stakes runners)
• Owner: Carl R. Moore Management, LLC
• Recent Form: 90 HRN figure; solid recent placings in restricted LA stakes (including a 2nd in a key prep).
  Analysis: Inside post is a plus on the fast dirt, but she’ll need a perfect trip to overcome the heavy favorites. Sharp’s horses often improve in stakes company, and Concepcion is riding hot. Live at 3/1 for a minor award or upset if the top two falter early.

PP 2 – Braken Poppa (Aurelius Maximus – Fab Fox) (3yo filly)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (Eclipse Award winner; dominant at Fair Grounds)
• Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (multiple-time leading trainer; stakes machine)
• Owner: Bradley D. Kent and Ken T. Reimer
• Recent Form: Top 104 HRN figure; dominant recent winner in local restricted stakes (1st in key prep).
  Analysis: The clear morning-line favorite at 4/5. Asmussen/Ortiz combo is 30%+ winners together at this meet, and she has the highest speed figures plus pedigree for the distance. On fast dirt she should stalk or press and prove too strong late. The one to beat — HRN Power Pick and heavy betting action expected.

PP 3 – Chicka Chick (Keen Ice – Chickamauga) (3yo filly)

• Jockey: Emanuel Nieves
• Trainer: Danny Pish (solid with Louisiana-breds; patient development)
• Owner: Duffy’s Racing Stable, LLC & Heider Racing Stables, LLC
• Recent Form: 80 HRN figure; mid-pack finishes in recent restricted events (4th in last prep).
  Analysis: Longshot at 20/1. Needs a pace meltdown to factor; lacks the top-end speed of the favorites but is honest and could pick up a check at a price if the top three over-race.

PP 4 – Fade to Gold (Bolt d’Oro – Short Iron) (3yo filly)

• Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. (Fair Grounds stakes specialist)
• Trainer: Thomas M. Amoss (local legend; high win rate at home)
• Owner: Maggi Moss
• Recent Form: 87 HRN figure; consistent placings including a 3rd in recent LA stakes.
  Analysis: Respectable at 8/1. Amoss knows this track better than anyone, and Hernandez, Jr. gives her every chance from mid-pack. On fast dirt her Bolt d’Oro speed should carry her into contention. Solid exotic play underneath the favorites.

PP 5 – Miss Amber Q (Aurelius Maximus – Moneyinmywranglers) (3yo filly)

• Jockey: Carlos Lozada
• Trainer: Alfonso Balderas (emerging barn with live longshots)
• Owner: Hunsicker Equine Associates, LLC
• Recent Form: 80 HRN figure; improving but still chasing the top class.
  Analysis: 20/1 longshot. Pedigree suggests she can handle the distance, but recent figures say she’s a notch below. Possible for a minor placing at big odds if the pace is hot.

PP 6 – What’s Love (By My Standards – Will Take Over) (3yo filly)

• Jockey: Isaac Castillo
• Trainer: W. Bret Calhoun (perennial Fair Grounds leader; stakes winner machine)
• Owner: Allied Racing Stable, LLC
• Recent Form: Highest 105 HRN figure in the field; strong recent performances in local stakes.
  Analysis: Second choice at 4/1. Calhoun’s barn is always dangerous here, and the speed figure tops the field. She has tactical speed to sit just off Braken Poppa and pounce. Major threat to the favorite — the key win contender if the 4/5 chalk underperforms.

PP 7 – Play On Player (Mo Tom – Letsstaypositive) (3yo filly)

• Jockey: Sofia Vives (rising apprentice with momentum)
• Trainer: Michelle Lovell (consistent with homebreds)
• Owner: Horseshoe Racing, LLC
• Recent Form: 80 HRN figure; game but outclassed in recent preps.
  Analysis: 20/1 outsider. Outside post is no major issue on this track, but she’ll need a career-best to hit the board. Vives could get a nice trip, but expect her to be outrun by the top four.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Dominate: Restricted LA-bred stakes at Fair Grounds are won by the top two ML choices more than 65% of the time when the track is fast.
• Asmussen/Cal houn Factor: The two powerhouse barns (Asmussen on #2, Calhoun on #6) have combined for the majority of recent wins in this race type.
• Small-Field Dynamics: Only 7 runners means clean trips are crucial; expect an honest pace with Braken Poppa and What’s Love setting it up. Heavy money already on the 4/5 favorite.
• Exotics Play: Exacta and trifecta boxes centered on Braken Poppa (#2) and What’s Love (#6), with Fade to Gold (#4) and Thrill Seeker (#1) underneath for value.

Final Prediction

This is a high-quality restricted stakes on perfect fast dirt. Braken Poppa (PP 2) is the standout with the Asmussen/Ortiz combo, top speed figures, and recent winning form — she should wire or stalk to victory. What’s Love (PP 6) is the dangerous alternative at a square price and could pull the upset if the favorite gets too keen early. Expect a thrilling stretch duel between the top two.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 3: 2:20 PM ET (full card starts ~1:00 PM ET with Race 1)
Venue: Aiken Training Track (Aiken Steeplechase Association meet) – 538 Two Notch Road SE, Aiken, South Carolina 29801 This is the third leg of the one-day Aiken Steeplechase card, a traditional spring jump-racing fixture in the heart of South Carolina’s horse country. The Charles S. Bird III Stakes honors a longtime supporter of the National Steeplechase Association and serves as a key handicap hurdle for mid-tier jumpers.

• Distance: 2 1/8 miles (hurdles)
• Purse: $25,000
• Surface: Turf hurdles (Aiken’s famous grass course)
• Field Size: 5 horses (no scratches reported as of latest overnights)
• Conditions: Ratings Handicap for 4-year-olds and upward rated 110 or lower (top weight 158 lbs; minimum 144 lbs)

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Clear skies and classic early-spring conditions in Aiken. Forecast for race day (highs in the low-to-mid 80s°F, lows overnight in the mid-50s°F, 0% chance of precipitation, light winds). Humidity will be moderate.

The turf course should race firm to good — dry weather all week plus no rain forecast means fast ground and honest jumping. No wind or temperature extremes expected to affect strategy; this setup favors horses with proven speed and clean jumping technique over stamina alone.

Full Field Analysis

Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form Indicators

Based on current ratings and assigned weights, expect Gossiper and The Insider to open as co-favorites (likely 5-2 to 3-1 range), with L’Avvocato live at 4-1 and the others longer.

PP 1 – Love Shaq (PA) (5yo gelding, 155 lbs, Rating 107)

• Jockey: Sean McDermott (seasoned NSA rider with strong Aiken record)
• Trainer: Barry Foley (solid strike rate with first-time Lasix horses)
• Owner: Molly & Paul Willis
• Pedigree: Hoppertunity – Majestic Melresa (Majestic Warrior)
• Recent Form Indicators: Listed with recent figure 41 (or 75 in some sheets); Lasix (L) first time or repeat.
  Analysis: Solid mid-pack rating but carries useful weight. Has shown ability on firm turf but lacks the top-end class of the top two. McDermott’s experience will be key for a clean trip from the rail. Live longshot if the pace collapses; otherwise needs a career-best jump.

PP 2 – Cainudothetwist (NY) (9yo mare, 152 lbs, Rating 104)

• Jockey: Graham Watters (veteran with multiple Aiken wins)
• Trainer: Archibald J. Kingsley Jr. (multiple-time NSA leading trainer; strong at this meet)
• Owner: Atsamy Racing Club
• Pedigree: Americain – Bourbon Twist (Langfuhr)
• Recent Form Indicators: Recent figure 56 (or 85); veteran campaigner with experience.
  Analysis: Lightest weight in the field and a proven grinder on firm ground. Age is a concern (9yo), but Kingsley’s barn is firing and Watters knows every inch of Aiken. Best as a closer; could pick up pieces late if the top weights overjump early. Respectable each-way chance in a small field.

PP 3 – L’Avvocato (FR) (7yo gelding, 157 lbs, Rating 109)

• Jockey: Evan Dwan (rising star with excellent recent NSA form)
• Trainer: Katherine S. Neilson (consistent with French-bred jumpers)
• Owner: Hard Game LLC
• Pedigree: Frankel (GB) – After Dawn (IRE) (Invincible Spirit)
• Recent Form Indicators: Strong recent figure 91 (highest in field per available sheets); Lasix (L).
  Analysis: High-class French import with a pedigree that screams stamina and jumping ability. Carries near-top weight but the 109 rating suggests he’s competitive at this level. Dwan’s aggressive style suits the firm turf. One of the main threats — look for him to press or sit mid-pack and pounce at the last hurdle. Strong each-way play.

PP 4 – Gossiper (5yo mare, 158 lbs, Rating 110)

• Jockey: Freddie Procter (top-tier NSA jockey with multiple Aiken stakes wins)
• Trainer: Archibald J. Kingsley Jr. (double threat today; excellent record with mares)
• Owner: Adam Newman, Thomas Rice & James Stainbrook
• Pedigree: English Channel – Safarjal (IRE) (Marju)
• Recent Form Indicators: Recent figure 69 (or 85); Lasix (L).
  Analysis: Co-top weight and co-highest rated (110). Kingsley Jr. knows exactly how to place these horses at Aiken. Procter is ice-cold in the irons here. On firm ground she should travel beautifully and has the class edge. Top selection on paper — the one to beat if she jumps cleanly.

PP 5 – The Insider (IRE) (7yo gelding, 158 lbs, Rating 110)

• Jockey: Stephen Mulqueen (reliable finisher with good Aiken stats)
• Trainer: Keri Brion (hot barn; multiple graded stakes placings in 2025-26)
• Owner: Hudson River Farms & R and K Racing LLC
• Pedigree: Elzaam (AUS) – Nueva (IRE) (Montjeu)
• Recent Form Indicators: Recent figure listed as strong contender; no Lasix noted.
  Analysis: Dead-heat top weight and equal-highest rated. Irish-bred with classic stamina pedigree. Brion’s horses are peaking this spring, and Mulqueen gives him every chance. Outside post is no issue on this wide turf course. Co-favorite with Gossiper; expect a thrilling duel between the pair late.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Top-rated horses (110) carrying maximum weight have dominated similar Aiken handicaps when the ground is firm.
• Kingsley Jr. Factor: Trainer has two live runners (PP 2 & 4) — barn is 30%+ winners at this meet historically.
• Small-Field Dynamics: Only 5 runners means every jump counts; pace should be honest but not suicidal. Value lies in the 157-158 lb top weights rather than the light-weighted veteran.
• Exotics Play: Exacta and trifecta boxes centered on Gossiper (#4) and The Insider (#5), with L’Avvocato (#3) underneath.

Final Prediction

This is a high-quality, competitive handicap on perfect jumping ground. Gossiper (PP 4) and The Insider (PP 5) are the class horses and should fight out the finish, with Gossiper getting the slight nod on recent figures and jockey/trainer combo. L’Avvocato is the danger at a price. Expect a thrilling stretch duel over the final hurdles — classic Aiken drama!