Venue: Sam Houston Race Park, located in Houston, Texas (a premier Class 1 thoroughbred and quarter horse facility operating since 1994).
Race: Race 7 – Spirit of Texas Stakes (presented by PENN Heroes), a $75,000-added stakes (includes $60,000 from the TTA Event Fund) for accredited Texas-bred four-year-olds and upward.
Distance/Surface: Six furlongs on the main dirt track.
Conditions: Weight 123 lbs.; non-winners of a sweepstakes in 2025-2026 allowed 3 lbs.; non-winners of two races since September 23, 2025 allowed 5 lbs. (maiden/claiming/starter races excluded). Preference to highest 2025-2026 earnings.
Scheduled Post Time: 3:42 PM Central Time (first post for the full 12-race card is 1:00 PM CT).

Expected Weather Conditions: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny and unseasonably warm with a high of 87°F (low near 64°F). South-southwest winds 10-15 mph, moderate humidity, and minimal precipitation chance (near 0-10% during racing hours). Ideal spring racing weather in Houston—no adverse impact anticipated.

Expected Track Conditions: Fast dirt. The dry forecast and lack of recent significant rainfall point to a firm, speed-favoring main track—classic for six-furlong sprints at Sam Houston in March. No scratches reported; full field of seven Texas-breds expected.

Full Field Analysis (post positions drawn; competitive sprint for local stars, with heavy favoritism on recent form).

Analysis draws from Equibase entries, recent speed figures (HRN/EQUIBASE-style last-race or peak indicators), trainer/jockey stats in Texas stakes, sprint pedigree suitability, post position bias (inside posts often advantaged in short dirt sprints), and weight allowances. A sharp renewal headlined by a standout figure horse.

PP 1 – Bobby Brinkley (TX) – 8yo Gelding, 123 lbs., Jockey: Floyd Wethey Jr., Trainer: J.R. Caldwell, ML: 10/1
Veteran by Shanghai Bobby out of a City Zip mare—proven sprint pedigree with early foot. Recent speed figure of 97 is the lowest in the field, but the eight-year-old has placed in prior Sam Houston stakes and gets no weight break. Caldwell (strong local barn with multiple stakes winners) pairs him with patient rider Wethey, who excels from the rail. Post 1 is a major plus for saving ground in a sprint. Best as a pace presser or deep-closer for exotics at a price; unlikely winner but live underneath if the speed melts.

PP 2 – Josh’s Dream (TX) – 7yo Gelding, 118 lbs., Jockey: Mario Fuentes, Trainer: Alan Love Sr., ML: 20/1
By Race Day out of a Johannesburg mare—bred for speed. Recent speed figure of 113 shows solid local form, and the 5-lb. allowance helps the veteran. Love’s barn is capable with Texas-bred routers/sprinters; Fuentes is a reliable mid-pack rider. Post 2 offers clean early positioning. Longshot who could improve with the weight break—use in multi-race wagers or superfectas for chaos; needs a hot pace to close into.

PP 3 – Mikel W (TX) – 4yo Gelding, 118 lbs., Jockey: Jose L. Alvarez, Trainer: Carlos A. Padilla, ML: 9/2
Younger prospect by Bradester out of a Yes It’s True mare—speed influence suits the six-furlong trip perfectly. Recent speed figure of 117 is competitive and signals sharp form off a strong local effort. Alvarez (top Sam Houston rider with excellent win rate) reunites; Padilla gets good efforts from lightly raced types. Post 3 is ideal for a stalking trip. Live second or third choice—could press the favorite and offer value in exactas.

PP 4 – Too Much Action (TX) – 7yo Gelding, 123 lbs., Jockey: Rene Diaz, Trainer: J.R. Caldwell, ML: 6/5
Standout by Too Much Bling (Texas sire powerhouse) out of a Candy Ride mare—elite sprint pedigree with proven gate speed. Towering recent speed figure of 128 (highest by far) screams peak form and a dominant local win or placing. Caldwell (who also trains Bobby Brinkley) has this one rolling; Diaz is aggressive and fits a front-running or pressing style. Post 4 is neutral-to-good for clear early positioning. Heavy favorite and logical top pick—expect him to dictate or sit just off and draw away late. Win machine at short odds.

PP 5 – Unbridled Bling (TX) – 5yo Gelding, 118 lbs., Jockey: Santos Rivera, Trainer: Alex Hernandez, ML: 8/1
Another Too Much Bling product out of a Half Ours mare—classic Texas-bred speed. Recent speed figure of 111 is respectable and the allowance helps. Hernandez’s barn can pop at a price; Rivera is a journeyman who rides aggressively. Post 5 allows flexibility to sit mid-pack or press. Solid exotic play—could improve second off a layoff or with the weight concession; live longshot for the board.

PP 6 – Tizabling (TX) – 4yo Colt, 118 lbs., Jockey: Lane J. Luzzi, Trainer: Matt Hebert, ML: 5/1
By Too Much Bling out of a Tiznow mare—blends speed and stamina ideally for six furlongs. Recent speed figure of 115 is right there with the top contenders. Hebert is a capable trainer with sharp sprinters; Luzzi knows the track and fits stalking trips. Post 6 is fine for an outside press. Dangerous at a square price—could bounce up and challenge the favorite; strong exotic contender.

PP 7 – Turn North (TX) – 5yo Gelding, 118 lbs., Jockey: Deshawn L. Parker, Trainer: Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, ML: 7/2
By Classic Empire out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare—pedigree that stretches but has shown sprint versatility. Recent speed figure of 106 is a notch below the best here, but the allowance and consistent local placings keep him in the mix. Ramirez-Rodriguez and Parker pair for patient mid-pack rides. Widest post (7) is the downside in a sprint, but the distance isn’t extreme. Solid underneath play—could close strongly if the pace is honest; value in tri/superfectas.

Summary & Wagering Angles

• Favorites: Too Much Action (6/5) is the standout on elite recent figures, trainer form, and sprint pedigree. Mikel W (9/2) and Turn North (7/2) are the logical challengers.
• Key Exotic Plays: Exacta box or wheel with Too Much Action / Mikel W / Tizabling / Turn North. Tri/Super include Unbridled Bling and Bobby Brinkley underneath for price.
• Pace Scenario: Likely contested early speed (Too Much Action, Mikel W, possibly Bobby Brinkley) on fast dirt—favors stalkers and mid-pack closers who can save ground or rally outside.
• Trainer/Jockey Notes: J.R. Caldwell (two entries) is the barn to beat; Alvarez, Diaz, and Parker are the riders in form. Too Much Bling offspring dominate the pedigree angle.

Venue: Sam Houston Race Park, located in Houston, Texas (a Class 1 thoroughbred and quarter horse facility that has hosted racing since 1994).
Race: Race 6 – Star of Texas Stakes (presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance), a $75,000-added stakes (includes $60,000 from the TTA Event Fund) for accredited Texas-bred four-year-olds and upward.
Distance/Surface: One mile on the main dirt track.
Conditions: Weight 123 lbs.; non-winners of a sweepstakes in 2025-2026 allowed 3 lbs.; non-winners of two races at a mile or longer since September 23, 2025 allowed 5 lbs. (maiden/claiming/starter races excluded). Preference to highest 2025-2026 earnings.
Scheduled Post Time: 3:15 PM Central Time (first post for the card is 1:00 PM CT; full 12-race program).

Expected Weather Conditions: Mostly sunny and very warm with a high of 85°F (RealFeel® near 87°F) and low around 61°F overnight. Southerly winds 10-15 mph (gusts to 20 mph possible in the afternoon), low humidity for a March day in Houston, and near-zero precipitation chance (rain probability 0-6%). Conditions are ideal for racing—no impact expected on the track or horses. Expected Track Conditions: Fast dirt. The dry, sunny forecast with minimal recent rainfall should produce a firm, speed-favoring main track typical for Sam Houston in mild March weather. No scratches reported at entry time.

Full Field Analysis (post positions drawn; field of 8 Texas-breds headlined by the defending 2025 champion).

Analysis incorporates last-race Equibase-style speed figures (where available from recent form indicators), trainer/jockey records in Texas stakes, pedigree suitability for one mile on dirt, post position, and weight adjustments. This is a competitive renewal for local Texas-bred stars.

PP 1 – Victory for Vets (TX) – 5yo Gelding, 118 lbs., Jockey: Jose L. Alvarez, Trainer: W. Bret Calhoun, ML: 8/5
Defending 2025 Star of Texas Stakes champion returns for the repeat under allowance weight (non-winner of a recent sweepstakes adjustment). By Tapiture out of a Smart Strike mare, he has proven one-turn mile stamina and a strong closing kick on Sam Houston dirt. Last-race speed figure of 113 signals solid recent form; Calhoun (a perennial leading Texas trainer with multiple stakes wins here) knows this horse intimately and has him razor-sharp off a game seasonal debut victory. Alvarez is a top local rider with excellent inside-post success. Post 1 is ideal for saving ground early in a field without much early speed. Top contender—expect him to stalk and pounce late. Strong win probability at short odds.

PP 2 – Turn North (TX) – 5yo Gelding, 118 lbs., Jockey: Deshawn L. Parker, Trainer: Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, ML: 9/2
Consistent performer by Classic Empire out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare, bred for distance. Recent speed figure of 106 shows steady improvement in local allowance company. Ramirez-Rodriguez has had success with similar Texas-bred routers; Parker is reliable in mid-pack trips. Post 2 offers flexibility to sit just off the pace or press. Dangerous underneath at a square price—could improve second off a layoff or with the weight break. Live longshot chance if the favorite gets caught wide.

PP 3 – Proven Advocate (TX) – 5yo Gelding, 118 lbs., Jockey: Elvin Gonzalez, Trainer: Jayde J. Gelner, ML: 8/1
By Not This Time, a speed influence that translates well to one mile. Last-race speed figure of 113 matches the favorite’s recent mark, indicating sharp form. Gonzalez is a veteran Sam Houston rider who excels in stalking trips; Gelner’s barn has been competitive in restricted stakes. Post 3 is excellent for a clean break and mid-pack positioning. Could be the “other” speed or presser—value play if the top two get embroiled in a pace duel.

PP 4 – Bobby Brinkley (TX) – 8yo Gelding, 118 lbs., Jockey: Lane J. Luzzi, Trainer: J.R. Caldwell, ML: 15/1
Veteran by Shanghai Bobby; age is a concern but he’s a proven Sam Houston grinder with prior stakes placings. Recent speed figure of 97 is below top contenders, but the weight allowance helps. Caldwell (strong local trainer with multiple entries here) and Luzzi pair well for mid-pack rallies. Post 4 is neutral. Best as a deep closer for exotics at a price; unlikely to win but could hit the board if pace collapses.

PP 5 – Mr Jaws (TX) – 4yo Gelding, 123 lbs., Jockey: Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez, Trainer: Jerry Gourneau, ML: 30/1
Youngest in the field by Bradester; still eligible for the full weight. Recent speed figure of 91 is the lowest here, suggesting he needs more seasoning against these veterans. Gourneau is capable but this barn is less prominent in stakes; Valdez-Jiminez is a solid journeyman. Post 5 is fine but he’ll likely be outrun early. Longshot—use only in superfectas for chaos value.

PP 6 – Golden Grit (TX) – 4yo Gelding, 118 lbs., Jockey: Rene Diaz, Trainer: J.R. Caldwell, ML: 4/1
High-class prospect by My Golden Song with a standout recent speed figure of 124—the best in the field and a clear signal of peak form. Caldwell (who also trains Bobby Brinkley) has this one rolling; Diaz is aggressive and fits a pressing style. Post 6 allows a stalking trip from just outside. Pedigree and recent number scream “bounce-up” potential. Serious win threat—could wire or sit just off and dominate if the pace is honest. Excellent value second choice.

PP 7 – Tx Code (TX) – 5yo Gelding, 123 lbs., Jockey: Stewart Elliott, Trainer: W. Bret Calhoun, ML: 5/1
By Honor Code out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare—classic stamina pedigree for the mile. Recent speed figure of 120 is elite. Elliott (Hall of Fame-caliber veteran) reunites with Calhoun’s second stringer; the barn is hot. Full weight but post 7 gives room to maneuver wide or drop in. Could be the controlling speed or rate just off Victory for Vets. Live closer at a workable price—major exotic player.

PP 8 – Dust Em (TX) – 8yo Gelding, 123 lbs., Jockey: Floyd Wethey Jr., Trainer: Karen E. Jacks, ML: 6/1
Veteran by Too Much Bling with a respectable recent speed figure of 111. Jacks gets good efforts from older Texas-breds; Wethey is a patient rider suited to outside posts. Post 8 is the widest but the one-mile distance mitigates traffic issues. Could close strongly late if the pace heats up. Solid for place/show or multi-race wagers; another Caldwell/Jacks veteran that always shows up at Sam Houston.

Summary & Wagering Angles

• Favorites: Victory for Vets (8/5) is the logical top pick as the defending champion with ideal post, weight, and trainer. Golden Grit (4/1) is the most dangerous on recent figures.
• Key Exotic Plays: Exacta box or wheel with Victory for Vets / Golden Grit / Tx Code / Turn North. Tri/Super include Dust Em and Proven Advocate underneath for value.
• Pace Scenario: Moderate early tempo likely (no confirmed front-runner dominates); stalkers and closers (Victory for Vets, Golden Grit, Tx Code) have the edge on fast dirt.
• Trainer/Jockey Notes: Calhoun (two entries) and Caldwell (two entries) dominate the barn strength. Alvarez, Elliott, and Diaz are the riders to watch.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 10: 5:25 PM ET (full 12-race card first post ~12:50 PM ET)
Venue: Gulfstream Park – 901 S Federal Highway, Hallandale Beach, Florida 33009

The Texas Glitter Stakes is a key early-season turf sprint for 3-year-olds and the 12th running of the event. It headlines a loaded Saturday program and serves as a stepping stone for sophomores eyeing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint or summer turf sprints.

• Distance: 5 furlongs on turf (rail set at 31 feet)
• Purse: $125,000 (includes $25,000 from FBIF)
• Surface: Turf
• Field Size: 9 three-year-old colts/geldings (no scratches reported)
• Conditions: Open stakes for 3-year-olds; scale weights (120–124 lbs); Lasix permitted

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Classic South Florida spring weather with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and low (0–20%) chance of precipitation. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–80°F at post time), lows overnight in the mid-60s°F. Light northeast winds of 10–15 mph, moderate humidity. The turf course has been dry all week and will race firm (good to firm). This setup strongly favors early-to-mid-pack speed with clean trips and tactical versatility — expect a quick pace over the short 5f distance with closing room available from mid-pack. No wind or temperature extremes anticipated to alter strategy.

Full Field Analysis (Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form)

All are 3-year-olds carrying scale weights. Recent form highlights key 2025 efforts and current status.

PP 1 – Throckmorton (Caracaro – Whatarocket) – 124 lbs

• Jockey: Joe Bravo
• Trainer: Jose Francisco D’Angelo
• Owner: Gold Square LLC (Abraham Gold)
• Recent Form: Solid debut and stakes-placed efforts; tactical speed on turf.
  Analysis: Inside post is ideal for a sharp break on firm turf. D’Angelo/BRAVO combo is live locally. Respectable at 8/1 for a piece in a speed-filled race.

PP 2 – Monster (Leinster – Dienda) – 122 lbs

• Jockey: Jorge Ruiz
• Trainer: Jose Francisco D’Angelo (second runner)
• Owner: Arindel (Alan Cohen)
• Recent Form: Consistent sprinter with recent placings.
  Analysis: D’Angelo has two live shots; tactical early foot suits the firm going. Solid 6/1 chance to press the pace and hit the board.

PP 3 – I C Light (Charlatan – Brandons Danger) – 122 lbs

• Jockey: Javier Castellano (Hall of Famer)
• Trainer: Mark E. Casse
• Owner: CJ Stables (Charles Sonson)
• Recent Form: Back-to-back turf sprint wins at Gulfstream this winter (maiden + optional claimer).
  Analysis: Castellano/Casse tandem excels on the GP lawn. Proven local speed; strong 8/1 value underneath the top choices.

PP 4 – Expressway (Hard Spun – Leeway) – 120 lbs

• Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
• Trainer: William I. Mott
• Owner: Stone Farm (Arthur B. Hancock III)
• Recent Form: Debut winner on turf at Aqueduct; solid 4th in the Futurity (G3T).
  Analysis: Mott shipper with upside; can sit mid-pack and close on firm turf. Live 6/1 contender and a key exotic play.

PP 5 – Shipmate (Mendelssohn – Bansuri) – 122 lbs

• Jockey: Miguel Angel Vasquez
• Trainer: Nolan Ramsey
• Owner: Kenneth L. Ramsey
• Recent Form: Improving but still chasing graded company.
  Analysis: Ramsey barn dangerous in sprints; needs pace help at 20/1. Longshot exotic filler.

PP 6 – Unwritten Rule (Justify – Jewish Guilt) – 120 lbs

• Jockey: Samuel Marin
• Trainer: Thomas F. Proctor
• Owner: Glen Hill Farm (Craig Bernick)
• Recent Form: Lightly raced with potential on turf.
  Analysis: Proctor knows how to place these; outside draw ok in a sprint but 20/1 longshot best for deep exotics.

PP 7 – Arbiter (Charlatan – Bicolour) – 122 lbs

• Jockey: Pietro Moran
• Trainer: Wesley A. Ward
• Owner: Resolution Road Stables
• Recent Form: Undefeated in early tries; sharp Ward juvenile.
  Analysis: Ward specializes in turf sprints; tactical speed from good post. Strong 9/2 second choice and a major threat.

PP 8 – Intricate Spirit (Complexity – Dottie’s Spirit) – 124 lbs (first-time reported gelding)

• Jockey: Junior Alvarado
• Trainer: Miguel Clement
• Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Madaket Stables LLC, Kenneth G. & Gail P. Beitz
• Recent Form: Won the Futurity (G3T) at Aqueduct (Oct. 2025); Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) participant as a 2YO; returning off layoff.
  Analysis: The clear 2/1 morning-line favorite. Graded stakes winner with top-class pedigree and speed; gelding operation may sharpen him further. Clement/Alvarado give him every chance on firm turf — the one to beat.

PP 9 – Casson (Caravaggio – Zee Ro Drop) – 122 lbs

• Jockey: Dylan Davis
• Trainer: Mark E. Casse (second runner)
• Owner: Manfred and Penny Conrad
• Recent Form: Strong recent turf sprints; consistent performer.
  Analysis: Casse has two live entrants; tactical versatility. Solid 5/1 each-way chance to round out the exotics.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Graded stakes winners and recent Gulfstream turf sprinters dominate recent editions of the Texas Glitter on firm going.
• Casse/D’Angelo Factor: Multiple runners from top barns add depth.
• Sprint Dynamics: Firm turf + 5f means early speed and clean trips are critical; expect an honest pace with Intricate Spirit and Arbiter prominent. Heavy money already on the 2/1 favorite Intricate Spirit, with value on Arbiter (9/2), Casson (5/1), and Expressway (6/1).
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Intricate Spirit (#8) and Arbiter (#7), with Casson (#9), Expressway (#4), and Monster (#2) underneath for coverage.

Final Prediction

This is a high-quality, speed-filled turf sprint on perfect firm conditions. Intricate Spirit (PP 8) is the standout with his graded stakes pedigree, recent G3 win, and top connections — he should return sharp and dominate. Arbiter (PP 7) and Casson (PP 9) are the primary dangers in what promises to be a thrilling dash to the wire.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 9: 3:27 PM CT (full card first post 1:30 PM CT)
Venue: Fonner Park – 700 E Stolley Park Road, Grand Island, Nebraska 68801

The Tondi Stakes is the traditional feature sprint on opening weekend of the Fonner Park spring meet — a $20,000-added open stakes for 3-year-olds and upward at 6 furlongs on the main track. It honors longtime Nebraska racing supporter and draws a competitive field of local speedsters and shippers.

• Distance: 6 furlongs
• Purse: $20,000
• Surface: Main Track Dirt
• Field Size: 10 horses (no scratches reported)
• Conditions: Open for 3-year-olds and upward

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Early spring in central Nebraska: highs in the mid-50s°F (around 52–57°F at post time), lows overnight in the upper 30s°F. Light winds (5–12 mph from the northwest), mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, and zero chance of precipitation. The dirt track has been dry all week and will race fast. This setup strongly favors early-to-mid pack speed with clean trips — expect a quick pace and horses that can handle firm, speed-favoring dirt.

Full Field Analysis (Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form)

All carry scale weights (3YO 121 lbs; older 125 lbs unless noted). Recent form highlighted via Equibase speed figures and key local/prior starts.

PP 1 – Under Oath

• Jockey: Nathan Haar
• Trainer: Stetson Rushton
• Recent Form: Strong local figures; recent speed fig 108. Consistent mid-pack sprinter at Fonner.
  Analysis: Rail post is a plus on fast dirt. Haar knows the track; live longshot at 12/1 if he saves ground and gets a clear run.

PP 2 – Malibu S S

• Jockey: Victor Jadhir Bailon
• Trainer: Jerry Gourneau
• Recent Form: Speed fig 93; recent allowance placings. Honest but needs pace help.
  Analysis: Tactical early foot suits the distance. Gourneau’s barn is sharp locally; 10/1 offers value for exotics.

PP 3 – Rexford

• Jockey: Jose Angel Medina
• Trainer: Kyle Schindler
• Recent Form: Career-best speed fig 122; multiple recent wins/placings at Fonner. Top local performer.
  Analysis: Highest-rated horse in the field. Schindler/Medina combo excels here. The clear 5/2 morning-line favorite — expect him to stalk or press and dominate on fast dirt.

PP 4 – Sprint Out Pass

• Jockey: Alberto Pusac
• Trainer: Kelli Martinez
• Recent Form: Speed fig 115; consistent stakes-level tries locally.
  Analysis: Strong recent form and tactical speed. Martinez knows how to place these; solid 6/1 chance to hit the board.

PP 5 – Forced Ranking

• Jockey: Travis Cunningham
• Trainer: Schuyler Condon
• Recent Form: Speed fig 112; improving with recent wins.
  Analysis: Condon barn is hot; tactical versatility on fast going. Live at 5/1 — major contender.

PP 6 – Ghost Hero

• Jockey: Ricardo Martinez
• Trainer: Kyle Schindler (second runner)
• Recent Form: Lower speed fig 46; needs big improvement.
  Analysis: Schindler has two live shots today, but this one is a longshot at 15/1. Best for deep exotics only.

PP 7 – General Shipman

• Jockey: Alex Birzer
• Trainer: Isai V. Gonzalez
• Recent Form: Speed fig 113; veteran with multiple Fonner wins.
  Analysis: Birzer is a Fonner Park legend. Consistent closer; 7/2 second choice and a big threat late.

PP 8 – Paynted Blue

• Jockey: David Cardoso
• Trainer: Mark N. Hibdon
• Recent Form: Strong speed fig 119; recent dominant local sprint wins.
  Analysis: High figures and sharp current form. Cardoso gives him every chance; 3/1 co-favorite and the one to beat.

PP 9 – Shifty Gold

• Jockey: Chris Fackler
• Trainer: Schuyler Condon (second runner)
• Recent Form: Speed fig 81; needs pace meltdown.
  Analysis: Condon has two; longshot at 15/1. Minor exotic filler.

PP 10 – Shankapotamus

• Jockey: Adrian B. Ramos
• Trainer: Stacey Rushton
• Recent Form: Speed fig 88; game but facing tougher company.
  Analysis: Outside post no issue in a sprint; 15/1 longshot with minor upset potential.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: High-figure local horses (Rexford, Paynted Blue, General Shipman) dominate recent Tondi Stakes renewals on fast dirt.
• Schindler/Condon Factor: Trainers with multiple entries often sweep the board here.
• Sprint Dynamics: Fast dirt + 6f means early speed and clean trips win; expect honest pace with Rexford and Paynted Blue prominent. Heavy money already on the 5/2 and 3/1 top choices.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Rexford (#3), Paynted Blue (#8), and General Shipman (#7), with Forced Ranking (#5) and Sprint Out Pass (#4) underneath.

Final Prediction

This is a high-quality, competitive sprint on perfect fast dirt. Rexford (PP 3) is the standout with the highest speed figures and local dominance — he should wire or stalk to victory. Paynted Blue (PP 8) and General Shipman (PP 7) are the main dangers in what should be a thrilling stretch duel.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 12: 5:42 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The Louisiana Derby is the signature event on the final day of the Fair Grounds winter-spring meet and the last major Kentucky Derby points prep in New Orleans (100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers).

• Distance: 1 3/16 miles (longest on the Road to the Kentucky Derby)
• Purse: $1,000,000
• Surface: Main Track Dirt
• Field Size: 9 three-year-old colts (no scratches reported)
• Conditions: For 3-year-olds; all carry 122 lbs (Lasix permitted)

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–81°F at post time), lows in the low-to-mid 60s°F overnight. Light southwest winds of 5–10 mph, moderate humidity, and zero chance of precipitation. The dirt track has been dry for weeks and will race fast. This setup strongly favors tactical speed and stamina over the extended 1 3/16-mile trip — expect an honest pace with room for stalkers and closers to make their move.

Full Field Analysis (Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form)

All carry 122 lbs. Recent form and speed figures drawn from Equibase/BloodHorse and key preps (Lecomte, Risen Star, Gun Runner, Sunland Derby, etc.).

PP 1 – Pavlovian (Pavel – Mandy’s Grace)

• Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado
• Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (Reddam Racing specialist)
• Recent Form: Won Sunland Park Derby (Feb. 15) by a nose for 20 Derby points; prior Cal-bred stakes placings; career-best Equibase figure 87.
  Analysis: Inside post and stalker style suit a clean trip on fast dirt. O’Neill excels with shippers; live at 6-1 for a Derby spot if he repeats Sunland effort. Solid exotic underneath play.

PP 2 – Autobahn (Nyquist – Take Charge Paula)

• Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr.
• Trainer: Brad H. Cox (hot barn)
• Recent Form: Won 1 1/8-mile maiden at Gulfstream by 5 ¾ lengths; prior placings; figure 80.
  Analysis: Bred for distance; Cox has him improving. Tactical speed helps from post 2. Respectable 8-1 chance for a piece; strong value in multis.

PP 3 – Chip Honcho (Connect – Miss My Rose)

• Jockey: Luis Saez
• Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (5-time Louisiana Derby winner)
• Recent Form: 2nd in Risen Star (G2) with career-best 98 figure; won Gun Runner S.; 39 Derby points; 5: 2-2-0.
  Analysis: Asmussen/Saez combo dominates here. Tactical speed and local experience make him the 3-1 morning-line favorite. The one to beat — expect him to press and grind out a top-three finish for 25+ points.

PP 4 – Universe (Global Campaign – Equalityforall)

• Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
• Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
• Recent Form: 4th in Risen Star; runner-up in Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Street Sense (G3); 23 points.
  Analysis: McPeek knows this race (2002 winner). Closer style needs pace; 12-1 offers value if he improves on recent FG try.

PP 5 – Golden Tempo (Curlin – Carrumba)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
• Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
• Recent Form: Won Lecomte S.; 3rd in Risen Star (beaten 6 lengths); 35 points; blinkers added; figure 90.
  Analysis: DeVaux has him sharp with strong workouts. Excellent pedigree for the distance. Co-second choice at 7-2 — major threat with improved early position.

PP 6 – Spirit of Royal (Global Campaign – Spirit Lets Hearit)

• Jockey: Francisco Arrieta
• Trainer: Dallas Stewart
• Recent Form: Won maiden at Oaklawn; 9th in Southwest (G3); figure 92.
  Analysis: Stewart won this race in 1999. Needs big step forward; 20-1 longshot best for deep exotics only.

PP 7 – Blacksmith (Liam’s Map – Sweet Achiever)

• Jockey: Florent Geroux
• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Recent Form: Won maiden at Santa Anita by 3 ¾; 2nd in Los Alamitos Futurity (G2); 5 points; figure 100.
  Analysis: Baffert/Geroux tandem is dangerous on fast dirt. Presser style; 6-1 live chance to track the pace and hit the board.

PP 8 – Easterly (Uncle Mo – Dakota Wind)

• Jockey: Edgard Zayas
• Trainer: Brad H. Cox (stablemate to Autobahn)
• Recent Form: Won 1 1/16-mile race at Gulfstream by 2 ¾; prior 2nd in debut.
  Analysis: Cox has two live runners; pedigree and tactical speed suit the trip. 6-1 offers excellent each-way value.

PP 9 – Emerging Market (Candy Ride – Wild Empress)

• Jockey: Flavien Prat
• Trainer: Chad C. Brown
• Recent Form: Impressive debut winner at Tampa Bay Downs (1 mile 40 yards); figure 79.
  Analysis: Brown/Prat combo lethal with maidens stepping up. Stalker with upside; 6-1 with big-room-to-improve profile.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Local prep winners (Chip Honcho, Golden Tempo) have dominated recent editions; Asmussen has 5 wins here.
• Cox/Baffert/Brown Factor: Multiple elite barns represented.
• Extended Distance: 1 3/16 miles rewards stamina — look for horses with route pedigrees and proven two-turn form. Heavy money on the 3-1 and 7-2 top choices.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Chip Honcho (#3) and Golden Tempo (#5), with Blacksmith (#7), Easterly (#8), and Emerging Market (#9) underneath for value.

Final Prediction

This wide-open Grade II on perfect fast dirt sets up a classic Louisiana Derby thriller. Chip Honcho (PP 3) is the slight favorite with his local dominance and Asmussen record, but Golden Tempo (PP 5) with blinkers and Emerging Market (PP 9) offer the best upset potential. Expect a stirring stretch battle over the long trip — the winner will punch a big ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 11: 5:08 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks is a major Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep (100 points to the winner) and one of the premier 3-year-old filly stakes on Louisiana Derby Day.

• Distance: 1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs)
• Purse: $400,000
• Surface: Main Track Dirt
• Field Size: 7 fillies (no scratches reported)
• Conditions: For 3-year-old fillies; all carry 122 lbs (Lasix permitted)

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Mostly sunny to clear skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–81°F at post time), lows in the low-to-mid 60s°F overnight. Light winds (5–10 mph), moderate humidity, and zero chance of precipitation. The dirt track has been dry for weeks and will race fast. This setup favors tactical speed, clean trips, and fillies who can rate or close effectively on a speed-favoring surface. Expect an honest pace with room for stalkers and closers.

Full Field Analysis (Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form)

All 3-year-old fillies carry 122 lbs. Recent form highlights key preps (Rachel Alexandra G2, Martha Washington S., etc.).

PP 1 – Miss Metoyer (Classic Empire – Sky Skier)

• Jockey: Edward Santiago
• Trainer: Benard Chatters (local Louisiana specialist)
• Owner: Rand S. Metoyer
• Recent Form: Recent allowance/optional claiming winner locally (solid speed figure).
  Analysis: Rail post helps early but she’ll likely be pace-pressed. Longshot at 20/1. Chatters can get a live one, but she’s a notch below graded company. Best for deeper exotics at a price.

PP 2 – Newtown Pike (McKinzie – Newellton)

• Jockey: Francisco Arrieta
• Trainer: Lindsay Schultz (improving barn)
• Owner: Choctaw Racing Stable (Perry Sutherland)
• Recent Form: Steadily improving; recent stakes placings with rising speed figures (up to strong final-time ratings).
  Analysis: Tactical speed suits the fast dirt. Schultz has this filly peaking. Respectable at 8/1 — live exotic play and a potential value underneath the favorites if she gets a clean trip.

PP 3 – Maximum Offer (Maxfield – No Better Terms)

• Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. (Fair Grounds stakes ace)
• Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek (multiple Oaks preps winner)
• Owner: Baccari Racing Stable, LLC et al.
• Recent Form: Fourth (beaten just a length) in the Martha Washington S.; consistent graded-level placer.
  Analysis: McPeek/Hernandez combo is dangerous locally. Tactical versatility on fast dirt makes her a solid mid-pack threat. 8/1 offers good each-way value in a compact field.

PP 4 – Luv Your Neighbor (Constitution – Disobedient)

• Jockey: Luis Saez (elite big-race rider)
• Trainer: Michael Stidham
• Owner: Lael Stables (M. Roy Jackson)
• Recent Form: Runner-up in the Rachel Alexandra S. (G2); strong recent figures.
  Analysis: Stidham/Saez tandem fires in these spots. Proven at the distance and surface; should stalk Bella Ballerina and be right there late. Strong contender at 7/2 — one of the top win threats.

PP 5 – Bella Ballerina (Street Sense – Pretty City Dancer)

• Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
• Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh (Godolphin flagship)
• Owner: Godolphin, LLC
• Recent Form: Undefeated 3-for-3; dominant winner of the Rachel Alexandra S. (G2) and Golden Rod S. (G2). Half-sister to 2023 Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous.
  Analysis: The clear 7/5 morning-line favorite. Walsh/Gaffalione have her perfectly placed for this. Tactical speed, class edge, and pedigree scream top filly. The one to beat — heavy betting expected, but she’s the standout on paper.

PP 6 – Life of Joy (Gun Runner – Jordan’s Leo)

• Jockey: Flavien Prat (world-class closer)
• Trainer: Brad H. Cox (Oaks prep master; seeks back-to-back Golden Rod wins)
• Owner: Will Stroud, Andrew Farm et al.
• Recent Form: Stakes winner with strong recent efforts; Cox barn always dangerous in graded routes.
  Analysis: Cox/Prat combo is lethal. Can stalk or close on fast dirt. Major threat at 4/1 — live every step and a prime exotic anchor.

PP 7 – Love and Trust (Constitution – Finding Fame)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (top-tier rider)
• Trainer: Cherie DeVaux (hot meet; 30%+ winners locally)
• Owner: Belladonna Racing LLC, Twin Brook Stables, Woodford Racing LLC et al.
• Recent Form: Impressive maiden-to-stakes progression; strong 3½-length win stretching out Feb. 17 at FG (final quarter in :24.49). Lightly raced with upside.
  Analysis: DeVaux/Ortiz tandem is winning at a high rate here. Outside post suits her closing style. Excellent 9/2 value — the top “against the favorite” play with maturity and room to improve.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Undefeated Rachel Alexandra winners have dominated this race historically.
• Cox/DeVaux Factor: Top trainers dominate recent editions.
• Compact-Field Dynamics: Only 7 runners means clean trips are crucial; expect moderate pace with Bella Ballerina and Luv Your Neighbor prominent. Heavy money on the 7/5 favorite, with value shifting to Love and Trust (9/2) and Life of Joy (4/1). Speed figures are tightly bunched.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Bella Ballerina (#5) and Love and Trust (#7), with Luv Your Neighbor (#4) and Life of Joy (#6) underneath.

Final Prediction

This is a high-quality, tightly bunched Grade II on perfect fast dirt. Bella Ballerina (PP 5) is the standout with her perfect record, class, and connections — she should remain undefeated and stamp her Kentucky Oaks ticket. Love and Trust (PP 7) and Life of Joy (PP 6) offer the best value and upset potential in what should be a thrilling stretch battle.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 10: 4:36 PM CT (Louisiana Derby Day full card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The Muniz Memorial Classic (named for longtime turf trainer Albert M. Stall Sr.) is a premier older-horse turf route on Louisiana Derby Day and awards an automatic berth to the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) and Arlington Million (G1).

• Distance: 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on turf
• Purse: $300,000
• Surface: Turf
• Field Size: 7 horses (no scratches reported)
• Conditions: For 4-year-olds and upward; weights 118–122 lbs (Lasix permitted for all)

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Classic New Orleans spring weather with mostly sunny to sunny skies and zero to minimal precipitation chance (0–8%). Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–81°F at post time), lows in the low-to-mid 60s°F overnight. Light winds (5–10 mph). The turf course has been dry for weeks and will race firm (good to firm). This setup favors tactical speed, clean trips, and proven grass routers who can handle firm going — expect a moderate pace with closing ability at a premium. No wind or temperature extremes anticipated.

Full Field Analysis (Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form)

All carry scale weights with Lasix. Recent form drawn from key preps (Fair Grounds Stakes G3, Tampa Bay Stakes G3, Pegasus World Cup Turf G1, etc.).

PP 1 – Chasing the Crown (KY) (7yo horse, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
• Trainer: Michael J. Maker (sharp with shippers and turf routers)
• Owner: Paradise Farms Corp., David Staudacher & Angelo Carlesimo
• Breeding: Skipshot – La Belle Marquet
• Recent Form: Consistent mid-pack performer coming off allowance/lower-stakes placings; solid but facing a class jump.
  Analysis: Rail post helps early positioning on firm turf. Maker/Loveberry combo is live at a price, but he lacks the top-end stakes punch of the favorites. Longshot exotic filler at 12/1.

PP 2 – Montador (KY) (4yo colt, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (turf specialist)
• Trainer: Michael Stidham (sending a sharp two-horse entry)
• Owner: Godolphin, LLC
• Breeding: Nyquist – Lady Montdore
• Recent Form: Troubled-trip 2nd (boxed in, rallied gamely) to Lagynos in the recent G3 Fair Grounds Stakes; earlier won the Woodchopper Stakes here. Career 8-3-3-0 with $314K earnings.
  Analysis: Stidham notes a better trip could flip the script on his last. Tactical speed and Godolphin class make him dangerous. Strong each-way chance at 7/2 — one of the live Stidham duo.

PP 3 – Idratherbeblessed (KY) (6yo gelding, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (hot locally)
• Trainer: Chris A. Hartman (consistent with statebred/allowance types stepping up)
• Owner: JD Thoroughbreds, LLC & Wayne Scherr
• Breeding: Unified – Celestial Smile
• Recent Form: Game but outclassed in recent restricted stakes; honest grinder.
  Analysis: Veteran with local experience but figures say he’s a notch below. Needs pace meltdown; respectable 12/1 longshot for minor awards.

PP 4 – Lagynos (KY) (5yo horse, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (elite turf rider)
• Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (perennial FG powerhouse)
• Owner: HRH Prince Sultan Bin Mishal Al Saud
• Breeding: Kantharos – Steamy
• Recent Form: Dominant recent winner of the G3 Fair Grounds Stakes (beat Montador); track specialist with multiple FG wins. High HRN figures.
  Analysis: Asmussen/Ortiz tandem fires here often. Tactical versatility and recent class edge on firm turf make him a major threat. Co-favorite at 2/1 — the one to beat on paper.

PP 5 – Tom’s Magic (ON) (4yo colt, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Luis Saez
• Trainer: Michael Stidham (double threat with Montador)
• Owner: CJ Thoroughbreds & Mo Speed Racing
• Breeding: Justify – (strong route pedigree)
• Recent Form: Game 2nd in the G3 Tampa Bay Stakes (fresh off layoff); prior wins include the Black Gold at FG and Breeders’ Stakes. Versatile (on or off pace).
  Analysis: Stidham believes the extra distance helps; developing 4yo with upside. Saez’s timing suits firm turf. Live at 5/1 — the other half of the dangerous Stidham entry.

PP 6 – Faber (ON) (4yo gelding, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Florent Geroux (local turf ace)
• Trainer: Gary M. Scherer (solid with improving types)
• Owner: Anderson Farms
• Breeding: Improbable – (turf influence)
• Recent Form: Improving allowance winner (Feb. 12 at FG); stepping up in class.
  Analysis: Light weight and Geroux help, but recent figures suggest he’s overmatched. 15/1 longshot with minor exotic appeal if he improves again.

PP 7 – Program Trading (GB) (6yo ridgling, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Flavien Prat (world-class closer)
• Trainer: Chad C. Brown (turf master; multiple Muniz wins)
• Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc.
• Breeding: Lope de Vega (IRE) – (elite grass pedigree)
• Recent Form: Perplexing 5th in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) after strong prior form; rebound candidate with 8-week freshening.
  Analysis: Brown/Prat combo is lethal on firm turf. Outside post no issue; class edge and history suggest big bounce-back. Clear 9/5 morning-line favorite and the horse to beat.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Recent G3 FG Stakes performers and Brown-trained horses dominate this event on firm turf.
• Stidham Factor: The trainer’s duo (Montador & Tom’s Magic) offers excellent coverage against the top choices.
• Small-Field Dynamics: Only 7 runners = clean trips critical; expect honest pace with Lagynos/Program Trading prominent. Heavy money on the 9/5 and 2/1 favorites.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Program Trading (#7) and Lagynos (#4), with Montador (#2) and Tom’s Magic (#5) underneath for value.

Final Prediction

This compact Grade II on perfect firm turf sets up a thriller. Program Trading (PP 7) is the class horse and should rebound strongly for Brown/Prat, but Lagynos (PP 4) is razor-sharp locally and the biggest danger. The Stidham pair adds depth — expect a stirring stretch battle with the top four separating late.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 9: 4:04 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The New Orleans Classic is one of the premier older-horse dirt routes on the calendar and the traditional undercard highlight on Louisiana Derby Day. It honors Louisiana racing and serves as a key stakes for 4-year-olds and up.

• Distance: 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs)
• Purse: $500,000
• Surface: Main Track Dirt
• Field Size: 6 horses (no scratches reported)
• Conditions: Grade II for 4-year-olds and upward; weights 118–124 lbs (Lasix permitted)

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Mostly sunny to clear skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–81°F at post time), lows in the low-to-mid 60s°F overnight. Light winds (5–10 mph), moderate humidity, and zero chance of precipitation. The dirt track has been dry for weeks and will race fast. This setup favors speed and tactical versatility with a strong pace likely; clean trips and ability to rate or close will be premium on a speed-favoring surface.

Full Field Analysis (Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form)

All horses carry scale weights. Recent form is summarized from key preps and figures (HRN/Beyer-style noted where available). The local Louisiana-bred star and defending champion dominates the market.

PP 1 – Westwood (4YO gelding, 124 lbs)

• Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (top rider with FG stakes wins)
• Trainer: Peter Eurton (new barn after transfer from John Shirreffs; sharp with shippers)
• Owner: C R K Stable (Lee Searing)
• Breeding: Authentic – Indian Bay
• Recent Form: Front-running winner of the San Pasqual Stakes (recent West Coast stakes); strong figures (HRN ~117). First start off the claim/transfer.
  Analysis: Outside post in a small field is fine, but the 10-1 ML reflects the class jump and new trainer. Gaffalione’s speed will help early; live longshot if he clears and relaxes on the fast dirt.

PP 2 – Touchuponastar (7YO gelding, 122 lbs) – Defending Champion

• Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (retained mount; red-hot locally)
• Trainer: Jeff Delhomme (homebred connections; knows every nuance of FG)
• Owner: Set-Hut, LLC (Jake C. Delhomme)
• Breeding: Star Guitar – Touch Magic
• Recent Form: Dominant repeat winner of the LA Bred Premier Night Championship S. (easy score, HRN 134); multiple facile wins vs. overmatched LA-breds since last year’s Classic victory over Sierra Leone. Lifetime 27-20-4-2 with nearly $1.76M earnings.
  Analysis: The 6-5 morning-line favorite and clear standout. Four-time Louisiana Champions Day Classic winner; proven at this exact trip and surface. Pedroza Jr. knows the trip; he should stalk or press and dominate on fast dirt. The one to beat — heavy action expected.

PP 3 – Accelerize (4YO colt, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: John Velazquez (elite big-race rider)
• Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (two-time Classic entrant; barn firing)
• Owner: Spendthrift Farm LLC & Repole Stable
• Breeding: Omaha Beach – (strong pedigree for route)
• Recent Form: Re-rallied to win the Louisiana S. (G3) by a neck over Just a Touch; then 2nd in the Mineshaft (G3) vs. Hit Show (HRN ~112). Two strong FG winter tries.
  Analysis: 3-1 second choice. Pletcher/Velazquez combo excels in routes. Tactical speed and closing kick suit the fast track; major threat if Touchuponastar over-races early. Strong exotic anchor.

PP 4 – Life and Times (5YO gelding, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Flavien Prat (world-class closer)
• Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (double threat today)
• Owner: Michael B. Tabor
• Breeding: Justify – (Justify pedigree for stamina)
• Recent Form: Blitzed allowance foes early; 3rd in the Fred W. Hooper (G3) (HRN ~115). Lightly raced but improving.
  Analysis: 6-1 value. Pletcher/Prat tandem is dangerous; light weight helps. Needs a pace setup but can close strongly on firm dirt. Solid underneath play.

PP 5 – Not This Boy (5YO gelding, 122 lbs)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (FG stakes specialist)
• Trainer: William D. Cowans (consistent with Kentucky shippers)
• Owner: Zimmer Ridge Ranch
• Breeding: Not This Time – (solid route pedigree)
• Recent Form: Won the Tenacious Stakes at FG (Dec. 20) while withstanding pressure; strong 5YO debut (HRN ~122).
  Analysis: 7-2 live chance. Ortiz gives him every opportunity; proven FG winner with tactical speed. Could press the favorite and be in the mix throughout.

PP 6 – Corporate Power (5YO horse, 118 lbs)

• Jockey: Luis Saez (Asmussen regular)
• Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (perennial FG leader; stakes machine)
• Owner: Courtlandt Farms, LLC
• Breeding: Curlin – (Curlin stamina influence)
• Recent Form: Dominant allowance win at FG (Feb. 19, HRN 126); sharp local form.
  Analysis: 8-1 with upside. Asmussen/Saez combo wins big races here often; light weight and recent figure make him a dangerous closer on fast dirt. Live longshot for exotics.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Defending champions and local speed have dominated recent editions on fast dirt.
• Pletcher/Asmussen Factor: Top barns (Pletcher has two, Asmussen one) account for most wins in this race type.
• Small-Field Dynamics: Only 6 runners means every trip counts; expect honest pace with Westwood/Touchuponastar prominent early. Heavy money already on the 6-5 favorite.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Touchuponastar (#2) and Accelerize (#3), with Not This Boy (#5) and Corporate Power (#6) underneath for value.

Final Prediction

This is a compact, high-quality Grade II on perfect fast dirt. Touchuponastar (PP 2) is the standout with his defending title, recent dominance, and local affinity — he should repeat. Accelerize (PP 3) and Not This Boy (PP 5) are the primary threats in a likely thrilling stretch battle.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 8: 3:32 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The Costa Rising Stakes honors a longtime Louisiana racing supporter and serves as the opening leg of the estimated $1 million All-Stakes Pick 5 on Louisiana Derby Day. It is restricted to Louisiana-bred statebred turf sprinters.

• Distance: 5½ furlongs on turf
• Purse: $100,000
• Surface: Turf
• Field Size: 12 starters (13 entered; Buy the Rights is AE)
• Conditions: For 3-year-olds and upward; weights 119–125 lbs (Lasix permitted)

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Mostly clear to sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–80°F at post time), lows in the low 60s°F overnight. Light winds (5–10 mph), moderate humidity, and zero chance of precipitation. The turf course has been dry for weeks and will race firm (good to firm). This setup strongly favors tactical speed, sharp early foot, and horses with proven turf sprint form over pure closers. No wind or temperature extremes are expected to alter strategy — classic fast-turf sprint conditions at Fair Grounds.

Full Field Analysis

Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form

All horses are Louisiana-bred. Morning-line odds are official. Recent form is highlighted via key recent starts and figures.

PP 1 – Nine Part (5YO horse, 121 lbs)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (top-tier rider)
• Trainer: Joseph R. Felks
• Owner: Keith Plaisance
• Breeding: Leofric – Alva
• Recent Form: Won last turf start (Feb. 21, FG, 5½f) by 2¼ lengths over several rivals in this field; 5-time winner, never out of the money in 6 starts, never lost at Fair Grounds.
  Analysis: The clear 3-1 morning-line favorite. Taking on stakes company for just the second turf start but dominates the profile with speed and FG affinity. Ortiz gives him every chance from the rail. The one to beat — expect him to press or stalk and prove too strong late on firm turf.

PP 2 – Strong Promise (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Jansen Melancon
• Trainer: Allen Landry
• Owner: Baronne Farms, LLC
• Breeding: Broken Vow – St. Jean
• Recent Form: 8-time winner; most recent victory in the Premier Night Sprint at Delta Downs; 2 wins from 3 turf starts.
  Analysis: Solid 6-1 chance. Landry’s barn is always dangerous with statebred sprinters, and the recent sprint win shows sharp form. Tactical speed suits the firm turf; live exotic play and a major threat if Nine Part falters early.

PP 3 – Hay Jude (4YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Isaac Castillo
• Trainer: Thomas M. Amoss (local powerhouse)
• Owner: Maggi Moss
• Breeding: Aurelius Maximus – Sweet Alice Benbow
• Recent Form: Consistent performer with recent placings in restricted events; Amoss barn firing on all cylinders.
  Analysis: 5-1 second choice. Amoss/Castillo combo excels at FG, and the 4yo has upside on firm turf. Tactical versatility makes him a key player underneath the favorites in exotics.

PP 4 – Sassi D (6YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: James Graham
• Trainer: Lee Thomas
• Owner: Elite Thoroughbred Racing, LLC
• Breeding: Sassicaia – Diane C
• Recent Form: Veteran with three straight tries at this level; honest mid-pack runner.
  Analysis: 10-1 mid-shot. Graham knows the course; needs pace help but can pick up pieces late on firm ground. Respectable each-way value in a wide-open sprint.

PP 5 – Monsieur Candy (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
• Trainer: Larry Rivelli (sharp with shippers)
• Owner: JKX Racing
• Breeding: Catalina Red – Cajun Rocket
• Recent Form: Competitive in recent turf sprints; improving figures.
  Analysis: Live at 9-2. Rivelli’s horses often peak for stakes, and Loveberry is riding hot. Strong mid-pack threat with closing kick on firm turf — one of the top win contenders at a square price.

PP 6 – Clear as a Bele (6YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Axel Concepcion
• Trainer: David Terre
• Owner: Dark Horse Investment LLC & Lane Cortez
• Breeding: Clearly Now – My Friend Bele
• Recent Form: Steady but facing tougher class here.
  Analysis: 15-1 longshot. Concepcion can get him a good trip, but recent figures suggest he’s a notch below the top four. Minor exotic chance at a price.

PP 7 – Big Chopper (7YO horse, 125 lbs)

• Jockey: Jamison Mudd
• Trainer: Jayde J. Gelner (owner-trainer)
• Owner: Jayde J. Gelner
• Breeding: Shackleford – Miss Well Molded
• Recent Form: Won last start at one mile; won this race in 2023 after placing in the Eddie Johnston Memorial Stakes; sharp current form.
  Analysis: 15-1 with big upside. Course specialist and sharp right now — the defending champ (2023) could spring a huge upset on firm turf. Respect at a price.

PP 8 – Chad’s Flashy Ways (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Juan P. Vargas
• Trainer: Ronnie P. Ward
• Owner: Claudio Solis
• Breeding: Sky Mesa – Flashy Ways
• Recent Form: Recent allowance placings but needs more.
  Analysis: 20-1 outsider. Ward can get a live longshot, but class and recent figures point to a tough spot. Best for deeper exotics.

PP 9 – Sounds Like Power (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr.
• Trainer: Randy Degeyter Jr.
• Owner: Darrin Dares
• Breeding: Power Jam – Street Sounds
• Recent Form: Consistent statebred sprinter with recent placings.
  Analysis: 8-1 value play. Pedroza Jr. and the barn have local success; tactical speed could land him in the mix on firm going.

PP 10 – Smash It (4YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Ben Curtis
• Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
• Owner: Scott Bryant et al.
• Breeding: Star Guitar – Hennesey Smash
• Recent Form: Improving with recent turf tries.
  Analysis: 10-1 live longshot. Walsh/Curtis tandem is dangerous; 4yo has upside and could improve for this spot.

PP 11 – Take Charge J J (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)

• Jockey: Emanuel Nieves
• Trainer: Eric Henry
• Owner: Roy Investments, LLC
• Breeding: Take Charge Indy – All Woman
• Recent Form: Game but outclassed in recent stakes preps.
  Analysis: 20-1 longshot. Needs a perfect trip but lacks the top-end speed here.

PP 12 – Dr. My Eyes (3YO colt, 112 lbs)

• Jockey: Luis Saez (elite closer)
• Trainer: Grant T. Forster
• Owner: Intrepid Thoroughbreds, LLC
• Breeding: Maxfield – You Caught My Eye
• Recent Form: Youngster with upside but light on experience.
  Analysis: 20-1 with Saez aboard. The 3yo gets weight relief and could improve, but faces older, battle-tested sprinters.

AE – Buy the Rights (4YO gelding, 119 lbs) – Michelle Lovell barn; would need scratches to run.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Recent turf winners and FG specialists dominate this restricted sprint.
• Barn Power: Amoss, Rivelli, Landry, and Gelner have strong recent stakes success here.
• Small-Field Sprint Dynamics: Firm turf + 5½f means early speed and clean trips are critical; expect an honest pace. Heavy money on the 3-1 favorite Nine Part, with value shifting to 9-2 Monsieur Candy and past winner Big Chopper.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Nine Part (#1) and Monsieur Candy (#5), with Big Chopper (#7), Strong Promise (#2), and Hay Jude (#3) underneath.

Final Prediction

This is a wide-open, high-quality statebred turf sprint on perfect firm ground. Nine Part (PP 1) is the standout with his recent dominant turf win and perfect FG record — he should take this first stakes test. Monsieur Candy (PP 5) and course specialist Big Chopper (PP 7) are the live alternatives at square prices. Expect a thrilling finish with several in contention turning for home.

Scheduled Post Time for Race 6: 2:30 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119

The Tom Benson Memorial Stakes is a key undercard feature on Louisiana Derby Day, honoring the late New Orleans Saints and Pelicans owner. This is a listed stakes for older fillies and mares on the turf.

• Distance: 1 1/16 miles (about 8.5 furlongs) on turf
• Purse: $150,000
• Surface: Turf (firm conditions expected)
• Field Size: 7 fillies and mares, all carrying 118 lbs (Lasix permitted)
• Conditions: For fillies and mares 4 years old and upward

Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions

Sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s°F (77–81°F at post time), lows overnight in the mid-50s°F. Light southwest winds of 5–10 mph, humidity moderate, and zero chance of precipitation. The turf course has had no rain for weeks and will race firm (good to firm). This setup favors tactical speed, clean trips, and horses with proven turf stamina and closing ability over pure front-runners. No wind or temperature extremes expected to alter strategy.

Full Field Analysis

Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form

All horses are 4–6YO fillies/mares carrying 118 lbs.

PP 1 – Ready for Shirl (KY) (5YO mare)

• Jockey: Brian J. Hernandez Jr. (Fair Grounds stakes specialist)
• Trainer: Dallas Stewart (hot barn on turf; multiple graded wins locally)
• Breeding: More Than Ready – Perfect Shirl (Perfect Soul)
• Recent Form: 11th (troubled trip) in the 2026 Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) at Gulfstream after winning the G2 Canadian at Woodbine last summer; first start for Stewart. HRN figure ~103.
  Analysis: Strong class edge with G2-winning form. Inside post is ideal on firm turf for a stalking trip. Hernandez Jr. knows the course; live threat at 7-2 if she shakes off the Pegasus trouble.

PP 2 – Sophie’s Cruiser (KY) (5YO mare)

• Jockey: Isaac Castillo (rising star with momentum at FG)
• Trainer: Brett A. Brinkman (solid with mid-tier turf mares)
• Breeding: Catalina Cruiser – Causeway Carolyn (Giant’s Causeway)
• Recent Form: Competitive but unplaced in recent listed stakes; consistent mid-pack runner. HRN figure ~104.
  Analysis: Longshot at 10-1. Needs pace help and a perfect rail trip; lacks the top-end class of the favorites but is honest and could hit the board at a price on firm ground.

PP 3 – Way to Be Marie (KY) (5YO mare) – Defending Champion

• Jockey: Luis Saez (retained mount; elite closer)
• Trainer: Eddie Kenneally (new barn after $750K Keeneland purchase by Twin Oaks Bloodstock; previously Rob Atras)
• Breeding: Not This Time – Woman of the World (Henrythenavigator)
• Recent Form: Signature win here last spring; graded stakes-placed with strong FG turf record. HRN figure ~87 but course specialist.
  Analysis: The 3-1 morning-line favorite and sentimental pick. Defending champ returns sharper for new connections. Saez’s timing is perfect for firm turf; the one to beat if she replicates her 2025 FG effort.

PP 4 – For Love and Honor (KY) (5YO mare)

• Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (top rider in turf stakes)
• Trainer: Joe Sharp (excellent local record with turf fillies)
• Breeding: Sky Mesa – Calidez (Spring At Last)
• Recent Form: Consistent placer in recent listed/allowance turf races; improving figures. HRN figure ~113 (highest in field).
  Analysis: Solid 5-1 chance. Sharp/Gaffalione combo is dangerous at FG. Tactical speed suits the firm course; strong exotic play underneath the top choices.

PP 5 – Cupids Crush (MN) (6YO mare)

• Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (reliable on turf)
• Trainer: Hugh H. Robertson (patient with older mares)
• Breeding: Cupid – Dazzlingsweetheart (Dazzling Falls)
• Recent Form: Steady performer in FG turf stakes; recent placings but needs a bounce. HRN figure ~108.
  Analysis: 5-1 co-third choice. Veteran with local experience; can pick up pieces late on firm ground but faces tougher class here.

PP 6 – Sea To Sky (IRE) (4YO filly)

• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (Eclipse-level rider; turf master)
• Trainer: Cherie DeVaux (rising star with European imports)
• Breeding: Without Parole (GB) – Beyond the Sea (Sea The Stars)
• Recent Form: Competitive in recent U.S. turf stakes; improving with age. HRN figure ~90.
  Analysis: Co-favorite at 7-2 with top connections. Ortiz/DeVaux tandem excels on firm turf; outside post is no issue. Major contender with upside.

PP 7 – Gavea (GER) (5YO mare)

• Jockey: Flavien Prat (world-class closer)
• Trainer: Albert M. Stall Jr. (multiple FG stakes winner; local legend)
• Breeding: Gleneagles (IRE) – Goiania (GB) (Oasis Dream)
• Recent Form: Entered off the 2026 Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes; consistent European-style performer. HRN figure ~106.
  Analysis: 6-1 value play. Stall/Prat combo is lethal at Fair Grounds. Outside post suits her closing style on firm turf; live longshot with European pedigree edge.

Betting Trends & Strategy Notes

• Favorites Edge: Defending champions and G2-placed horses have dominated recent editions of this race on firm turf.
• Turf Specialists: Trainers Stewart, Sharp, DeVaux, and Stall have combined for the bulk of recent wins in FG turf stakes.
• Small-Field Dynamics: Only 7 runners means clean trips are critical; expect a moderate pace with Ready for Shirl and Way to Be Marie prominent early. Heavy money already on the 3-1 and 7-2 favorites.
• Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Way to Be Marie (#3), Ready for Shirl (#1), and Sea To Sky (#6), with Gavea (#7) and For Love and Honor (#4) underneath for value.

Final Prediction

This is a high-quality, evenly matched turf stakes on perfect firm ground. Way to Be Marie (PP 3) is the defending champion and sentimental favorite, but Ready for Shirl (PP 1) and Sea To Sky (PP 6) offer the strongest class and connections. Expect a thrilling stretch battle with the top three separating themselves late.