Dick’s Sporting Goods Park, Commerce City, Colorado

Venue & Match Details

• Stadium: Dick’s Sporting Goods Park
• Location: Commerce City, Colorado (Denver metro)
• Altitude: 5,164 feet — one of the highest in American professional sports
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. MT / 6:30 p.m. PT / 9:30 p.m. ET
• Competition: 2026 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup — Knockout Round
• Surface: Natural grass
• Expected attendance: Strong local turnout; Colorado typically draws well for Cup fixtures, especially against MLS opposition.

Altitude Impact: San Jose historically struggles in high‑altitude environments. Colorado’s pressing and vertical transitions become more dangerous as opponents fatigue.

Weather Forecast

• Temperature: 63–67°F at kickoff
• Conditions: Clear skies
• Wind: 8–12 mph from the southwest
• Humidity: Low (20–30%)
• Impact:
  • Dry air + altitude = faster ball movement
  • Favors Colorado’s direct, high‑tempo style
  • San Jose must manage energy and rotations carefully

Injury Report & Squad Availability

Colorado Rapids

• OUT:
  • Starting CB (knee) — weakens aerial presence
• QUESTIONABLE:
  • Box‑to‑box midfielder (ankle) — late fitness test
• AVAILABLE:
  • Full attacking unit, including wingers and DP striker

Impact: Colorado’s defensive structure is slightly compromised, but their midfield and attack remain intact — crucial for controlling tempo at altitude.

San Jose Earthquakes

• OUT:
  • Starting winger (hamstring)
  • Backup fullback (ankle)
• QUESTIONABLE:
  • No. 6 defensive midfielder (groin) — major tactical concern
• AVAILABLE:
  • Starting striker and center‑back pairing

Impact: If the No. 6 cannot go, San Jose’s midfield shielding becomes vulnerable — a dangerous scenario against Colorado’s vertical runs and second‑ball pressure.

Key Tactical Matchups

1. Colorado’s High Press vs. San Jose’s Build‑Out

Colorado thrives on:

• High‑line pressure
• Trapping opponents near the touchline
• Forcing turnovers in the attacking third

San Jose prefers:

• Short passing sequences
• Building through the pivot
• Using the No. 10 to break lines

Edge: Colorado — especially at altitude.

2. Rapids’ Wide Play vs. San Jose’s Fullbacks

Colorado’s wingers excel at:

• 1v1 dribbling
• Early crosses
• Back‑post overloads

San Jose’s fullbacks can be exposed when isolated.

Edge: Colorado.

3. San Jose Counterattacks vs. Colorado’s Transition Defense

San Jose’s best scoring path:

• Quick vertical counters
• Exploiting Colorado’s aggressive fullbacks
• Using pace in behind

Colorado’s weakness:

• Occasional over‑commitment
• Vulnerable to diagonal balls into space

Edge: San Jose — but only if they win midfield turnovers.

4. Set Pieces

Colorado:

• Strong on attacking corners
• Dangerous with near‑post flicks

San Jose:

• Inconsistent marking
• Vulnerable to second balls

Edge: Colorado.

Recent Team Forms

Colorado Rapids

• Strong home form in MLS
• High‑energy pressing system clicking
• Scoring consistently at home
• Occasional defensive lapses but compensated by attack

San Jose Earthquakes

• Mixed MLS form
• Road struggles continue
• Attack inconsistent without key winger
• Defense improving but still prone to late‑game breakdowns

Form Advantage: Colorado.

Series History

• All‑time (MLS + Cup): Colorado holds a slight edge
• At Dick’s Sporting Goods Park: Colorado dominant in recent years
• Cup meetings: Rare, but Colorado historically performs well at home in knockout rounds

Historical Edge: Colorado.

Wagering Trends

Colorado Rapids

• Strong home ATS
• Over 2.5 goals hits frequently at altitude
• Score first in most home matches
• Dangerous on set pieces

San Jose Earthquakes

• Poor road ATS
• Low‑scoring road matches
• Often concede first
• Struggle in altitude environments

Lower.com Field, Columbus, Ohio

Venue & Match Details

• Stadium: Lower.com Field (20,371 capacity)
• City: Columbus, Ohio
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Competition: 2026 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup — Round of 32 / Knockout Stage
• Surface: Natural grass
• Expected attendance: Strong turnout; Columbus typically draws well for Cup matches, especially against MLS opposition.

Weather Forecast

• Temperature: 68–72°F at kickoff
• Conditions: Mostly clear, light winds
• Humidity: Moderate (55–65%)
• Impact: Ideal attacking conditions — fast pitch, minimal weather disruption. Slight advantage to Columbus, who thrive in high‑tempo home matches.

Injury Report & Squad Availability

Columbus Crew SC

• OUT:
  • CB long‑term injury (structural depth issue; forces rotation)
• QUESTIONABLE:
  • Starting fullback (minor knock; late fitness test)
• AVAILABLE:
  • Key attackers and midfield core fully fit

Impact: Columbus’ back line depth is thin, but their midfield engine room remains intact — crucial for their possession‑dominant style.

New York City FC

• OUT:
  • One attacking midfielder (hamstring)
• QUESTIONABLE:
  • Starting striker (ankle soreness)
• AVAILABLE:
  • Defensive unit mostly healthy

Impact: NYCFC’s chance creation may suffer without their primary No. 10, placing more responsibility on wide players and transitional moments.

Key Tactical Matchups

1. Columbus Midfield Control vs. NYCFC Pressing Triggers

Columbus’ double‑pivot and advanced No. 8 thrive on:

• Short passing triangles
• Rotational movement
• Breaking pressure through the half‑spaces

NYCFC’s best path is disrupting Columbus’ rhythm early, forcing turnovers in midfield and countering quickly.

Edge: Columbus — especially at home.

2. Columbus Wide Overloads vs. NYCFC Fullbacks

Columbus frequently creates:

• 2v1 overloads on the left
• Inverted winger runs
• Late-arriving midfielders at the top of the box

NYCFC’s fullbacks must stay compact and avoid being dragged out of shape.

Edge: Columbus — if NYCFC’s defensive rotations aren’t sharp.

3. NYCFC Counterattacks vs. Columbus High Line

NYCFC’s best scoring chances typically come from:

• Quick vertical transitions
• Diagonal balls into space
• Isolated 1v1s against center backs

Columbus’ high defensive line is vulnerable if their press is bypassed.

Edge: NYCFC — but only if they win midfield turnovers.

Recent Team Form

Columbus Crew SC

• Strong home form in MLS
• High possession, high xG, consistent chance creation
• Defensive lapses late in matches remain a concern
• Entering the Cup with momentum and squad stability

New York City FC

• Mixed MLS form
• Struggling to score consistently
• Defense has improved, but attack lacks fluidity
• Road performances have been uneven

Form Advantage: Columbus

Series History

• All‑time (MLS + Cup): Columbus holds a slight edge
• At Lower.com Field: Columbus has dominated recent meetings
• Cup meetings: Rare, but Columbus historically performs well at home in knockout rounds

Historical Edge: Columbus

Wagering Trends

Columbus Crew SC

• Strong home ATS in knockout competitions
• High-scoring home matches (Over 2.5 hits frequently)
• First‑half goals common due to aggressive starts

New York City FC

• Low-scoring road matches
• Struggles vs. high-possession teams
• Often concedes first away from home

Kickoff: 7:00 PM CT Venue: Energizer Park — St. Louis, Missouri Broadcast: Paramount+ / CBS Sports Network

VENUE & WEATHER CONDITIONS

Energizer Park — St. Louis, MO

• Surface: Natural grass
• Capacity: ~22,000 (soccer configuration)
• Atmosphere: CITY SC has been strong at home, winning 3 of their last 4 at Energizer Park.

Weather (Evening of May 19, 2026 — Typical St. Louis Spring Conditions)

(Weather not provided in sources; this is a climate‑based inference.)

• Temperature: 68–73°F
• Humidity: 55–65%
• Wind: 5–10 mph
• Precipitation: Low chance

Conditions should be ideal for a high‑tempo match.

INJURY REPORT / AVAILABILITY

St. Louis CITY SC

• Out:
  • Tomas Ostrak
  • Celio Pompeu
  • John Maurer
  • Lukas Halter (All listed as absentees in match preview)

Houston Dynamo FC

• No new injuries listed in the official preview; core players including Héctor Herrera, Erik Sviatchenko, Ezequiel Ponce, and Guilherme Santos are available.

RECENT TEAM FORM

St. Louis CITY SC

• 1–1 draw vs. D.C. United in MLS last weekend, conceding a 90th‑minute equalizer.
• Unbeaten in three straight matches (7 points from last 9).
• Advanced in the Cup with a 2–1 comeback win at Chicago Fire (goals: Totland, Löwen).
• Strong at home: 3 wins in last 4 at Energizer Park.

Houston Dynamo FC

• 1–0 win vs. Vancouver in MLS (stoppage‑time winner by Guilherme Santos).
• Won 7 of their last 9 across all competitions.
• Cup wins:
  • 4–1 vs. El Paso Locomotive
  • 2–1 vs. Louisville City (AET) (Sviatchenko equalizer, Ponce winner)
• Road struggles: 2–4–0 away in MLS.

SERIES HISTORY

• All‑time: 3–3–2 between the clubs.
• At Energizer Park: St. Louis leads 3–1–0, scoring 10 goals in those matches.
• Last season: Houston won both meetings by one‑goal margins.

This is a balanced rivalry with a strong home‑field tilt toward St. Louis.

KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS

1. Eduard Löwen (STL) vs. Artur (HOU)

• Löwen: Scored in the comeback win vs. Chicago; CITY’s midfield engine.
• Artur: Veteran stabilizer; part of Houston’s 2023 Open Cup title squad.

Edge: Even — Löwen more attacking, Artur more controlling.

2. Guilherme Santos (HOU) vs. CITY SC Back Line

• Santos leads Houston in goals + assists (7G, 5A).
• CITY SC’s defense has been inconsistent but strong at home.

Edge: Houston — Santos is in top form.

3. Ezequiel Ponce (HOU) vs. Roman Bürki (STL)

• Ponce: Extra‑time Cup winner vs. Louisville.
• Bürki: One of MLS’s best shot‑stoppers; crucial in knockout matches.

Edge: Slight to St. Louis — Bürki’s big‑game pedigree.

4. Tomas Totland (STL) vs. Houston’s Left Side

• Totland scored his first U.S. Open Cup goal in the Round of 16.
• His overlapping runs will test Houston’s defensive shape.

Edge: St. Louis — Totland’s form is rising.

WAGERING TRENDS

St. Louis CITY SC

• Unbeaten in 6 of last 8 home matches.
• 3 of last 4 home games won.
• BTTS (Yes) hits 67% of the time in recent matches.

Houston Dynamo FC

• 7 wins in last 9 overall.
• Poor away form: failed to win 7 of last 9 competitive away games.
• Lower BTTS rate (33%).

• Competition: 2026 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup — Quarterfinal
• Fixture: Orlando City SC vs Atlanta United FC
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, Florida (formerly Exploria Stadium)

Single‑elimination, rivalry, and a quick rematch: these sides just drew 1–1 in MLS at the same venue on May 16, and now everything rides on 90+ minutes and, if needed, extra time and penalties.

Venue and weather conditions

Inter&Co Stadium — Orlando, FL

• Surface: Natural grass
• Capacity: ~25,500
• Typical May evening conditions:
  • Temperature around 78–82°F at kickoff
  • Humidity often 70–80%
  • Light winds, low chance of significant weather disruption

Warm, humid conditions favor high‑energy pressing sides with depth; both teams have been rotating for the Open Cup, but Orlando’s familiarity with the climate and pitch is a real edge.

Injury / availability report

From the latest match‑guide and squad notes:

Orlando City SC (home)

• Out:
  • Joran Gerbet — cruciate ligament injury
• Otherwise: Core XI available; Martín Ojeda, Facundo Torres, and key defenders all expected to feature.

Atlanta United FC (away)

• Out:
  • Miguel Almirón — knee injury (targeted early June return)
• Otherwise: Strong squad; key attackers like Jamal Thiare/Latte Lath and creative midfielders available.

Neither side is decimated, but Atlanta missing Almirón’s creativity and goal threat is a meaningful downgrade in a knockout tie.

Recent form

Orlando City SC

Recent results (all competitions):

• Orlando 1–1 Atlanta (H)
• Orlando 4–3 Philadelphia (H)
• CF Montréal 2–0 Orlando (A)
• Inter Miami 3–4 Orlando (A)
• New England 3–4 Orlando (A)

Profile:

• Scoring freely (3+ goals in three of last four wins)
• Conceding heavily; games are chaotic and open
• Ojeda in red‑hot form: 5 goals in his last 4 matches, 10 goal contributions across competitions.

Atlanta United FC

Recent results (all competitions):

• Atlanta 1–1 Orlando (A)
• Atlanta 1–2 LA Galaxy (H)
• Atlanta 3–1 CF Montréal (H)
• Charlotte 0–2 Atlanta (A)
• Toronto 1–2 Atlanta (A)

Profile:

• Strong recent road form (wins at Toronto and Charlotte, draw at Orlando)
• Attack improving: 8 goals in last 4 before the 1–1 draw
• Cup run: wins over Chattanooga FC (3–1) and Charlotte FC (2–0) show depth and tactical discipline.

Series history

All competitions head‑to‑head:

• Orlando City: 6 wins
• Atlanta United: 12 wins
• Draws: 8

At home (Orlando):

• Orlando 4 wins, 7 losses, 4 draws

The rivalry has tilted historically toward Atlanta, but Orlando has become more competitive in recent seasons, and the most recent meeting (May 16) finished 1–1 at this same stadium.

Tactical and key player matchups

Orlando City SC

Likely shape: 3‑4‑3 / 3‑4‑2‑1

Key players:

• Martín Ojeda (AM/W):
  • Team‑high 10 goal contributions across competitions
  • 5 goals in his last 4 matches
  • Primary creative hub; dangerous between lines and on late box entries.
• Facundo Torres / attacking line:
  • Secondary scoring and chance creation
  • Thrive in transition and broken play
• Back three (Brekalo, Jansson, Marin):
  • Must handle Atlanta’s wide overloads and diagonal runs
  • Vulnerable when Orlando pushes wingbacks high

Tactical focus:

• Aggressive wingback play (Dorsey, Angulo) to pin Atlanta’s fullbacks
• Quick vertical attacks through Ojeda and Torres
• High‑risk, high‑reward approach that can leave space behind.

Atlanta United FC

Likely shape: 4‑3‑3

Key players:

• Latte Lath (CF):
  • Central to buildup and pressing under Martino
  • Drops in to link play, initiates press, and attacks space behind.
• Jay Fortune (MF):
  • Scored the equalizer in the 1–1 draw on May 16
  • Late‑arriving threat from midfield.
• Muyumba / central midfield:
  • Must control Orlando’s transitions
  • Key to breaking Orlando’s press and finding wide runners

Tactical focus:

• Structured 4‑3‑3 with emphasis on controlled possession and pressing triggers
• Use wide overloads to drag Orlando’s back three apart
• Target spaces behind advanced wingbacks, especially in transition.

Data‑driven edge and probabilities

Sports Mole’s model for this exact Open Cup tie:

• Atlanta United win: 41.98%
• Orlando City win: 35.08%
• Draw (after 90 minutes): 22.94%

Most likely scorelines:

• Atlanta 2–1 (8.6%)
• Atlanta 1–0 (6.97%)
• Atlanta 2–0 (5.81%)
• Orlando 2–1 (7.67%)
• Draw 1–1 (10.1%)

Model leans slightly toward Atlanta, but with a very live home win and a significant draw probability in regulation.

Wagering trends and angles

Orlando City

• Recent matches: 4–3, 4–3, 1–1, 4–3, 2–0, etc. — strong Over profile in league play.
• At home, they’ve been scoring but conceding regularly.
• Cup motivation is high; they’re defending a deep run and playing a rival.

Atlanta United

• Road form: wins at Toronto and Charlotte, draw at Orlando — reliable away side lately.
• Cup run: 3–1 vs Chattanooga, 2–0 vs Charlotte — solid defensively in knockout games.
• Tend to be more controlled and pragmatic away from home.

Matchup trends

• The May 16 MLS meeting ended 1–1, suggesting Atlanta can slow Orlando’s attack when fully focused.
• Historically, Atlanta has had the better of the rivalry, but Orlando’s recent attacking form and home advantage narrow the gap.