NBA Game Preview: Toronto Raptors (15-11) vs. Miami Heat (14-11)

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The Toronto Raptors (15-11), clinging to the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference, travel to face the Miami Heat (14-11) on Monday night in a battle of struggling Atlantic Division foes. Both teams enter on four-game losing streaks following early exits from the NBA Cup quarterfinals, making this a critical rebound opportunity at Kaseya Center. With Toronto’s dynamic frontcourt facing Miami’s stout defense, and key absences on both sides, expect a gritty, low-possession affair where physicality in the paint could decide the outcome. Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET, airing on FanDuel Sports Network Sun (FDSSUN), TSN, and NBA League Pass.

Venue Location

Kaseya Center
601 Biscayne Blvd
Miami, FL 33132
The Heat’s fortress since 1999, this 19,600-seat arena is notorious for its humid atmosphere and passionate crowds, boosting Miami’s 10-3 home record. It’s hosted iconic moments like the 2012-2013 championship runs, and tonight’s tilt could spark Miami’s turnaround.

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT)

Broadcast: FDSSUN (local), TSN (local), NBA League Pass (streaming)

Injury Report

Injuries have compounded both teams’ woes, with Toronto missing scoring punch from RJ Barrett and Miami without backcourt depth due to Terry Rozier’s indefinite leave. The official NBA injury report (as of 12:30 p.m. ET) highlights:

TeamPlayerStatusInjury/ReasonEstimated Return
RaptorsRJ BarrettOutRight Knee; SprainDec 18
Jamison BattleProbableLeft Ankle; SprainDay-to-Day
Chucky HepburnOutG League – Two-WayTBD
A.J. LawsonOutG League – Two-WayTBD
Alijah MartinOutG League – Two-WayTBD
HeatTyler HerroAvailableRight Big Toe; ContusionN/A
Kasparas JakucionisProbableLeft Ankle; SorenessDay-to-Day
Pelle LarssonOutLeft Ankle; SprainDec 18
Terry RozierOutNot With Team (Personal)Feb 20
Dru SmithAvailableLeft Hip; ContusionN/A

Barrett’s absence (averaging 20.1 PPG) forces more onus on Scottie Barnes, while Rozier’s leave (amid a gambling probe) leaves Miami thin at guard. Herro’s return after two games missed is a boost for Miami’s offense.

Key Player Matchups

This matchup hinges on Toronto’s versatile wings against Miami’s switchable defense. Without Barrett, the Raptors lean on Barnes and Ingram for creation, while Miami’s Adebayo anchors a top-10 paint presence. Top battles:

Scottie Barnes (TOR SF) vs. Bam Adebayo (MIA C)
Barnes (21.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 6.1 APG) is Toronto’s do-it-all engine, thriving in transition and pick-and-rolls. Adebayo (18.7 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 3.2 BPG) is Miami’s defensive anchor, holding opponents to 48% in the paint. Edge: Adebayo—his 2.1 SPG could disrupt Barnes’ drives, as seen in Miami’s last win over Toronto (120-111 OT).

Brandon Ingram (TOR SG) vs. Andrew Wiggins (MIA SF)
Ingram (24.8 PPG, 38% 3PT) exploits mismatches with mid-range pull-ups, but Wiggins (17.2 PPG, elite wing defender) brings length and athleticism (1.8 SPG). Edge: Ingram—his 30+ PPG in three of the last five games gives Toronto a scoring edge if Wiggins fouls early.

Immanuel Quickley (TOR PG) vs. Davion Mitchell (MIA PG)
Quickley (22.3 PPG, 5.4 APG) fuels Toronto’s pace with off-ball movement, facing Mitchell (12.1 PPG, lockdown perimeter D at 1.9 SPG). Edge: Quickley—Mitchell’s offense lags, and Quickley’s 31-point explosion vs. Charlotte last week highlights his hot hand.

Jakob Poeltl (TOR C) vs. Kelel Ware (MIA C)
Poeltl (11.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG) controls the glass for Toronto (+2.1 rebound margin), but Ware (10.5 PPG, emerging rim protector) steps up in rotations. Edge: Poeltl—expect 12+ boards in a battle for second-chance opportunities.

Bonus Prop Watch: Barnes Over 20.5 Points (-115) and Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120) have hit in 75% of December games.

Team Records

TeamOverall RecordHome/AwayDivisionConferenceStreak
Raptors15-118-6 Home / 7-5 Away3-310-7L4
Heat14-1110-3 Home / 4-8 Away2-49-8L4

Toronto ranks 18th in scoring (115.8 PPG) but sixth in assists (29.4 APG), showcasing ball movement. Miami’s defense (118.2 allowed, 12th) shines at home, but their 48% FG lags without Rozier.

Recent Team Forms

Both squads are mired in slumps, with defenses faltering after NBA Cup fatigue. Toronto’s losses stem from poor shooting (43.3% FG last five), while Miami’s offense sputters on the road but rebounds at home.

Toronto Raptors Last 5 Games (1-4):

DateOpponentResultKey Stats
Dec 9vs. NYKL 101-117Ingram: 31 PTS; 28.9% 3PT team
Dec 7vs. BOSL 113-121Barnes: Triple-double threat; 40.9% 3PT
Dec 5vs. CHAL 86-111Quickley: 31 PTS; Defensive collapse (44% FG allowed)
Dec 4vs. LALL 120-123Ingram: 23 PTS; Close loss, 61.1% eFG
Dec 2vs. PORW 121-118Barnes: 23 PTS, 11 REB, 9 AST; OT thriller

Miami Heat Last 5 Games (1-4):

DateOpponentResultKey Stats
Dec 9@ ORLL 108-117Powell: 28 PTS; 13 TOs forced
Dec 6vs. SACL 111-127Jaquez Jr.: 27 PTS; Poor rebounding (-7)
Dec 5@ ORLL 105-106Powell: 28 PTS; Buzzer-beater miss
Dec 3@ DALL 108-118Ware: 22 PTS, 10 REB; 48% FG
Dec 1vs. LACW 140-123Powell: 30 PTS; High-scoring outburst

Averages: Raptors 104.2 PPG scored (last five), Heat 114.4 PPG allowed at home.

Series History

Miami holds a commanding all-time edge (65-43), including two playoff sweeps in 2010-2011. Since 2020, the Heat are 12-5 vs. Toronto, winning 60% of games by double digits.

This season (2025-26): Heat lead 3-1

Feb 21: Heat 120-111 OT (Adebayo: 25 PTS, 12 REB)

Dec 12: Heat 114-104 (Powell: 28 PTS)

Dec 1: Raptors 119-116 (Ingram: 30 PTS)

Nov 29: Heat 121-111 (Herro: 24 PTS)

Miami has covered in 7 of the last 10, with games averaging 225.6 total points (Under in 6 of 10).

Betting Trends

Key Trends:

Raptors: 1-6 SU last 7; 0-8 ATS last 8; Under in 7 of last 10 (avg. 218.4 points); 7-5 ATS on road.

Heat: 10-3 SU at home; 14-11 ATS overall; Over in 5 of last 7 home games; 6-2 SU vs. Toronto since 2024.

Head-to-Head: Heat 4-1 SU last 5; Under in 6 of 10; Raptors 2-8 ATS vs. Miami since 2023.

Game Odds

Toronto Raptors               237.5

Miami Heat                        – 5.5

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, December 14, 2025