NBA Game Preview: Miami Heat (28-27) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (15-40)

0
13

Venue Location

Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana.

Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET (5:00 p.m. PT).

This interconference matchup pits a middling Heat team against the struggling Pelicans, who are mired at the bottom of the West.

Recent Team Forms

The Heat are coming off a home loss to Utah, while the Pelicans snapped a skid with a blowout win over Sacramento. Miami has been inconsistent, while New Orleans has lost eight of their last 10.

Miami Heat Recent Form (Last 10 Games: 5-5):

DateOpponentResultScore
Feb 9vs Utah JazzL111-115
Feb 8at Washington WizardsW132-101
Feb 6vs Boston CelticsL96-98
Feb 3vs Atlanta HawksL115-127
Feb 1vs Chicago BullsW134-91
Jan 31vs Chicago BullsW125-118
Jan 29vs Chicago BullsL113-116
Jan 27at Indiana PacersL113-116
Jan 25vs New York KnicksW115-107
Jan 24at Chicago BullsW114-111
  • The Heat average 114.7 PPG over this stretch, allowing 110.4 PPG (+4.3 point differential).
  • Key notes: Miami has alternated wins and losses recently, with strong defensive showings in victories (holding opponents under 110 in four wins) but vulnerabilities in defeats.

New Orleans Pelicans Recent Form (Last 10 Games: 2-8):

DateOpponentResultScore
Feb 9vs Sacramento KingsW120-94
Feb 6at Minnesota TimberwolvesW119-115
Feb 4at Milwaukee BucksL137-141 OT
Feb 2at Charlotte HornetsL95-102
Jan 31vs San Antonio SpursL106-111
Jan 30at Dallas MavericksL121-123
Jan 28at Memphis GrizzliesL97-112
Jan 26vs Philadelphia 76ersL93-130
Jan 24vs Washington WizardsL115-119
Jan 23at Orlando MagicL97-124
  • The Pelicans average 110.4 PPG over this stretch, allowing 117.1 PPG (-6.7 point differential).
  • Key notes: New Orleans ended a six-game losing streak with back-to-back wins, including a defensive masterclass against Sacramento (holding them to 94 points). Offense has been inconsistent in losses.

Injury Report

Miami Heat:

  • Out: Norman Powell (G, back), Pelle Larsson (G/F, elbow), Tyler Herro (G, ribs), Terry Rozier (G, not with team/league-imposed leave).
  • Available: Bam Adebayo (C, hip tightness).
  • Note: The Heat’s backcourt is depleted, impacting scoring and playmaking.

New Orleans Pelicans:

  • Out: Dejounte Murray (G, Achilles).
  • Note: Murray’s absence removes a key facilitator; the Pelicans are otherwise healthy but lack depth.

These injuries favor the Heat slightly, as Pelicans’ losses are more frontcourt-oriented, but Miami’s guard absences could hinder perimeter play.

Key Player Matchups

  • Bam Adebayo (Heat C) vs. Derik Queen (Pelicans C): Adebayo (18.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG) anchors Miami’s interior, with strong rebounding and defense.

Queen (12.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is a rookie standout but inexperienced—expect Adebayo to control the paint with 15+ points and 10+ rebounds.

  • Andrew Wiggins (Heat SF) vs. Saddiq Bey (Pelicans SF): Wiggins (15.9 PPG) provides scoring versatility; Bey (16.6 PPG, 34.5% 3PT) is a perimeter threat.

This could be a high-scoring duel, but Wiggins’ athleticism edges out.

  • Davion Mitchell (Heat G) vs. Jordan Poole (Pelicans SG): Mitchell (7.1 APG) steps up with guards out; Poole (15.6 PPG) is streaky.

Mitchell’s defense could limit Poole under 15 points.

  • Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Heat SF) vs. Zion Williamson (Pelicans PF): Jaquez (12.5 PPG) offers energy; Williamson (21.5 PPG, 58.2% FG) dominates inside.

Williamson exploits mismatches for 20+ points if active.

Series History

  • All-Time: Heat lead 29-21 in 50 regular-season games.
  • This Season (2025-26): Heat lead 1-0 (125-106 W on Jan 4).

2

  • Key Trend: Miami has won three straight, averaging 133 PPG in those games while holding New Orleans to 106 PPG.

Betting Trends

  • Spread (ATS): Heat are 1-4 ATS in last 5 as 0.5-4.5 underdogs; Pelicans are 6-3-1 ATS in last 10.
  • Over/Under: Over has hit in 21 of Heat’s last 28 as 11+ favorites; Pelicans games have gone over in 27 of 55 (49.1%), higher at home (53.6%).
  • Moneyline: Heat are 4-1 SU in last 5; Pelicans are 2-3 SU in last 5 as underdogs.

Game Odds

Miami Heat                        232.5

New Orleans Pelicans    – 1.5

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, February 10, 2026