The Miami Heat (22-20) face the Golden State Warriors (24-19) in a cross-conference matchup between two teams hovering around .500. The Heat, eighth in the Eastern Conference, have alternated wins and losses lately but boast a potent offense (119.4 PPG, top-5) led by Jimmy Butler’s clutch play. The Warriors, eighth in the West, seek a fourth straight home win with Draymond Green’s defensive versatility and a balanced attack. Injuries loom large, with Miami missing Tyler Herro and Golden State without Stephen Curry, potentially turning this into a grind-it-out affair at Chase Center. Former Heat players on Golden State add intrigue, but expect the Warriors’ home edge to prevail in a close contest.
Venue Location
Chase Center, San Francisco, California. This 18,064-seat arena is known for its state-of-the-art facilities and passionate fans, creating a tough environment for visitors.
Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. PT, 7:00 p.m. local time in San Francisco). The game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA (Warriors market) and FDSSUN (Heat market), with radio on KNBR 104.5 FM (Warriors) and WQAM 560 AM (Heat).
Recent Team Forms
The Heat have alternated results, going 5-5 in their last 10 with a -2.4 point differential, showing offensive flashes but defensive inconsistencies. The Warriors are 7-3 in their last 10 with a +9.7 differential, riding a three-game home winning streak.
Here’s a breakdown of each team’s last 10 games:
| Date | Opponent | Result (Heat) | Score |
| Jan 17 | vs. OKC | W | 122-120 |
| Jan 15 | vs. BOS | L | 114-119 |
| Jan 13 | vs. PHX | W | 127-121 |
| Jan 11 | vs. ATL | W | 120-115 |
| Jan 9 | at SAC | L | 112-118 |
| Jan 7 | vs. GSW | L | 120-125 |
| Jan 5 | at POR | W | 110-105 |
| Jan 3 | vs. DEN | L | 105-110 |
| Jan 1 | at DET | W | 118-112 |
| Dec 30 | vs. UTA | W | 105-100 |
Overall: 6-4 in last 10 (+24 point differential).
| Date | Opponent | Result (Warriors) | Score |
| Jan 17 | vs. CHO | W | 136-116 |
| Jan 15 | vs. NYK | W | 133-91 |
| Jan 13 | vs. ORL | W | 110-50 |
| Jan 11 | vs. ATL | L | 129-76 |
| Jan 9 | at SAC | L | 112-118 |
| Jan 7 | at MIA | W | 125-120 |
| Jan 5 | at LAC | L | 102-103 |
| Jan 3 | vs. UTA | W | 123-114 |
| Jan 2 | vs. OKC | L | 94-131 |
| Jan 1 | vs. MIA | W | 118-112 |
Overall: 6-4 in last 10 (+48 point differential).
Injury Report
Miami Heat:
Tyler Herro (G): Out (right rib contusion/right toe injury) – Major loss for scoring (22.5 PPG).
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (F): Probable (knee) – Likely plays, adding depth (12.8 PPG).
Vladislav Goldin (C): Out (G League – Two-Way).
Davion Mitchell (G): Out (shoulder).
Golden State Warriors:
Stephen Curry (G): Out (sciatic nerve issue) – Re-evaluated in two weeks; huge absence (28.5 PPG, 6.2 APG).
Gui Santos (F): Day-to-day (left ankle sprain).
Jimmy Butler III? Wait, error in source; Butler is Heat. Warriors relatively healthy otherwise.
Key
Player Matchups
Injuries force adjustments, with Curry’s absence shifting Golden State’s offense to Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga.
Jimmy Butler (MIA F) vs. Draymond Green (GSW F): Butler (24.8 PPG, clutch finisher) tests Green’s defense (5.3 APG leader); expect physicality.
Bam Adebayo (MIA C) vs. Draymond Green (GSW F): Adebayo (20.2 PPG, 10.5 RPG) dominates inside; Green counters with versatility.
Terry Rozier (MIA G) vs. Andrew Wiggins (GSW G): Rozier steps up sans Herro (18.5 PPG); Wiggins (20.2 PPG) exploits mismatches.
Tyler Herro (MIA G) vs. Moses Moody (GSW G): Herro out, so Nikola Jovic or others fill in; Moody provides spacing for Warriors.
Other keys: Heat’s assists (28.5 per game) vs. Warriors’ turnovers forced (15.2). Golden State’s three-point shooting (15.2 made) could exploit Miami’s perimeter D.
Series History
The all-time series is even at 37-37 in regular season games. Golden State has won 4 of the last 6 meetings, but Miami leads the season series 1-0 after a 110-96 win on Nov. 19, 2025. The under has hit in 5 of the last 7 games, with averages under 234.5 points.
Betting Trends
Spread: Warriors 5-5 ATS in last 10; Heat 6-4 ATS but 5-5 SU lately.
Over/Under: Over is 4-1 in Warriors’ last 5 home games; under is 6-1 in Heat’s last 7 road tilts, but series unders in 5/7.
Other Trends: Warriors 3-0 SU in last 3 home games; Heat 7-13 SU on road. Golden State 16-6 at home; Miami 10-10 as underdogs.
Game Odds
Miami Heat 238.5
Golden State Warriors – 5.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, January 18, 2026
