Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN (national), ALT (Nuggets), FDSOK (Thunder)
Streaming: Fubo, NBA League Pass (blackout restrictions apply)
This Northwest Division clash is a heavyweight Western Conference battle between the league’s top defensive team (Thunder) and one of the most potent offenses (Nuggets). OKC holds the West’s best record and dominates at home (24-6), while Denver sits fourth in the conference but faces a tough road test against a motivated Thunder squad welcoming back Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Injury Report
Denver Nuggets – Several key pieces in doubt/out
- Out: Tamar Bates (left foot – surgery), Aaron Gordon (right hamstring – strain), Peyton Watson (right hamstring – strain), Curtis Jones (G League – two-way)
- Questionable: Jamal Murray (illness), Spencer Jones (right shoulder – strain), Jalen Pickett (right knee – soreness)
- Probable: Julian Strawther (left great toe – sprain)
Oklahoma City Thunder – Cleaner report with stars returning
- Out: Branden Carlson (low back – strain), Ajay Mitchell (abdominal – strain/left ankle sprain), Thomas Sorber (right ACL – surgical recovery), Jalen Williams (right hamstring – strain)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal – missed last 9) and Chet Holmgren (back – day-to-day earlier) are available/not listed and expected to play (SGA possibly on minutes restriction after long absence).
Recent Form
Nuggets (37-22): Strong defensively lately; most recent: W 103-84 vs. Boston (Feb 26) – held Celtics to 36 second-half points. 4-6 in last 10 but coming off a dominant defensive win. Road record: 21-11. Offense ranks top-5 (120.5+ PPG), led by Nikola Jokić’s triple-double mastery.
Thunder (45-15): Elite all season; most recent: L 116-124 @ Detroit (Feb 25) – rare loss with depleted roster (only 9 available in second half). Before that, strong wins including 121-113 vs. Cleveland (Feb 25). 6-4 in last 10 but 24-6 at home with top net rating (+11.4) and league-best defense.
Head-to-Head / Series History
2025-26 season (Thunder lead 1-0):
- Feb 1, 2026 (at DEN): Thunder 121, Nuggets 111 (SGA 34 pts)
OKC has won 10 of last 16 meetings (including playoffs). Thunder covered in recent home games vs. Denver; totals have trended Over in high-scoring affairs, but OKC’s defense often keeps games in check at Paycom Center.
Key Player Matchups
- Nikola Jokić (DEN, ~28.8 PPG, 12.5 RPG, elite passing) vs. Chet Holmgren (OKC, rim protection/versatile defense): Jokić dominates everywhere, but Holmgren’s length and mobility could challenge him inside/out. OKC doubles aggressively on Jok.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC, MVP-level scoring/playmaking) vs. Jamal Murray (if plays) / Christian Braun perimeter D: SGA returns after 9 games out; his mid-range and drives exploit Denver’s guard defense if Murray is limited/ill.
- Aaron Gordon absence impact → Denver’s frontcourt depth thins; OKC’s wings (Luguentz Dort, Wallace) can switch and hound.
- Bench edge: Thunder depth shines (even without Jalen Williams); Nuggets rely heavily on Jokić and role players if Murray/others sit.
Betting Trends & Advanced Stats
- Thunder are 31-28-1 ATS overall, strong at home (better home ATS trends). 43-13 straight-up as favorites.
- Nuggets are 33-26 ATS; 9-10 as underdogs. Strong 4-6 ATS in last 10 but vulnerable on road vs. elite defenses.
- OKC ranks 1st in defensive rating; DEN top-5 offense → matchup of styles.
- Over has hit in recent H2H; but Thunder home games trend Under when defense clamps. Combined average exceeds 232.5 slightly, but models lean close.
- Home favorites of 7.5+ in West: OKC covers high percentage.
Game Odds
Denver Nuggets 233.5
Oklahoma City Thunder – 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, February 26, 2026
