Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento is the main event of UFC on ESPN 56, which is taking place in St. Louis on Saturday, May 11, 2024
Our Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento prediction is that the UFC on ESPN 56 main event won’t last for the full five rounds. The reason? Only one of Derrick Lewis’s fights lasted for 25 minutes, while Rodrigo Nascimento is fighting his first-ever 5-round bout on May 11.
Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Odds
| Moneyline | Odds |
| Derrick Lewis | -160 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | +130 |
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct on Friday May 10, 2024
When, Where, and How to Watch?
Place: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri
Date: Saturday, May 11, 2024
Time: ~10:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Derrick Lewis is a -160 favorite in the match, which suggests that he’s expected to win on May 11. The main reason for this is his impressive portfolio. He’s 27-12-1 overall with many of those fights being against elite heavyweights.
This is a guy who defeated such heavyweight legends as Francis Ngannou, Alexander Volkov, Curtis Blaydes, and others. Most of his wins happened by knockout/technical knockout. The ones he won by decision, he won by out-striking his opponents.
Lewis is a force to be reckoned with, there’s no doubt about that. However, there’s one thing that should worry his fans ahead of the UFC on ESPN 56 main event. He lost four out of his last five fights. The only fight he won in this period was against Marcos Rogerio de Lima last summer. Unsurprisingly, he won by TKO.
A few months after that win, he went inside the Octagon again and lost to Jailton Almeida. What’s interesting about this fight is that it lasted for 25 minutes. It was the first time in Lewis’s career that a 5-round fight went the distance.
Rodrigo Nascimento is 11-1-1 in his professional career. Sure, his portfolio isn’t as impressive as the one of his UFC on ESPN 56 opponent. However, he does have four wins in the UFC already. It could’ve been five, but his TKO win over Alan Baudot in 2021 was declared a no contest after he tested positive for a banned substance.
Unlike Lewis who’s all about punching, Nascimento has much more diversity in his arsenal. He’s a fantastic wrestler who loves finishing his opponents by submission. He’s also very fast and hard to hit, which could cause problems for Lewis. Derrick Lewis is 39, meaning that his career is slowly coming to an end. The retirement may come even sooner if he loses to Rodrigo Nascimento. But if he wins, especially if he wins by a spectacular knockout, we should see him move up in the UFC Heavyweight Rankings. He’s now 12th, but he’d probably break into the top 10 if he won on May 11 in St. Louis.
