MLS Match Preview: St. Louis City SC (5-16-6) vs. Houston Dynamo FC (7-12-8)

Weather Outlook

Forecast at Kickoff: ~82°F (28°C), humid (~65%), light SSW winds 4–6 mph

Impact: Warm, sticky conditions could slow pressing intensity; slight chance of late-evening showers may slick the surface and quicken ball movement

Injury & Availability Report

St. Louis City SC

Out: Chris Durkin (knee), Tomáš Ostrák (ankle), Kessler (hamstring), Wentzel (muscle)

Notes: Eduard Löwen and João Klauss expected to start; Roman Bürki remains in goal

Houston Dynamo FC

Out: Andrew Tarbell (ACL), Nelson Quiñónes (knee), Erik Sviatchenko (muscle)

Suspended: David Steres (yellow card accumulation)

Notes: Ezequiel Ponce leads the line; Jack McGlynn and Griffin Dorsey provide midfield creativity

Projected Starting XIs

St. Louis City SC (4-2-3-1)
Bürki (GK); Totland, Hiebert, Girdwood-Reich, Reid; Wallem, Morales; Pompeu, Hartel, Teuchert; Klauss

Houston Dynamo FC (4-3-3)
Bond (GK); Escobar, Bartlow, Andrade, Ortiz; Artur, McGlynn, Holmes; Bassi, Ponce, Lingr

Key Player Matchups

João Klauss (STL) vs. Ethan Bartlow (HOU) – Klauss has 9 goals this season and thrives on physical duels; Bartlow must contain his hold-up play.

Marcel Hartel (STL) vs. Artur (HOU) – Hartel’s late runs from midfield (5G, 3A) against Artur’s ball-winning role.

Ezequiel Ponce (HOU) vs. Kyle Hiebert (STL) – Ponce leads Houston with 7 goals; Hiebert’s aerial presence will be tested.

Griffin Dorsey (HOU) vs. Célio Pompeu (STL) – Dorsey’s overlapping runs could leave space for Pompeu to exploit on counters.

Recent Team Form

St. Louis City SC – Last 5 MLS: L L W L L

Home: 4-4-5 this season

Goals For: 31 Goals Against: 47 GD: –16

Notable: 2-0 home win vs. Nashville (Aug. 10) snapped a 3-match losing streak

Houston Dynamo FC – Last 5 MLS: L D D D L

Away: 3-4-6 this season

Goals For: 34 Goals Against: 44 GD: –10

Notable: Winless in last 7 MLS matches; last victory July 13 vs. LA Galaxy

Series History

All-Time (MLS & Cups): St. Louis leads 3W – 2W Houston – 2D

2025 Season: Houston won 1–0 at home (June 28) via Ezequiel Ponce goal

At St. Louis: St. Louis 2–0–0 in MLS play, both wins by 3–0 scorelines

Goals: STL 9 – HOU 4 in all competitions since 2023

Betting Trends

St. Louis City SC:

3-1 in last 5 overall; 2-0 ATS in last two

0 of last 5 matches Over 3.5 goals

7-4 ATS in road games this season

Houston Dynamo FC:

1-4 in last 5 overall; 1-4 ATS in last five

4 of last 5 matches Over 2.5 goals

9-4 ATS in road games this season

H2H:

STL unbeaten in 4 of last 5 at home vs. HOU

BTTS in 3 of last 5 meetings

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

Team xG: STL 1.15 GF / 1.74 GA; HOU 1.26 GF / 1.63 GA

Home/away splits & recent form

Key absences (Durkin, Ostrák for STL; Steres, Quiñónes for HOU)

Historical home dominance by STL in this matchup