Game Overview
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 2, 2025 – First Pitch 6:40 p.m. ET
- Venue: Great American Ball Park, 100 Joe Nuxhall Way, Cincinnati, OH 45202
- Surface: Natural Grass
- Broadcast: Sportsnet (TOR), Bally Sports Ohio / FanDuel Sports Network (CIN), MLB.tv (out-of-market)
Weather Report (Cincinnati, OH – Game Time)
- Conditions: Clear skies, warm evening
- Temperature: ~77°F (25°C)
- Wind: ~6–8 mph, light breeze toward right-center — slight boost to LHB power
- Precipitation: 0% chance
- Impact: Neutral-to-slightly hitter-friendly
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
- 60‑Day IL: Ryan Burr (shoulder), Yimi García (ankle), Alek Manoah (elbow), Nick Sandlin (elbow), Bowden Francis (shoulder), Anthony Santander (shoulder), Angel Bastardo (elbow)
Cincinnati Reds
- 10‑Day IL: Tyler Stephenson (thumb)
- 15‑Day IL: Graham Ashcraft (forearm), Chase Burns (elbow)
- 60‑Day IL: Tyler Callihan (forearm), Carson Spiers (shoulder), Wade Miley (flexor), Julian Aguiar (elbow), Brandon Williamson (elbow), Ian Gibaut (shoulder), Rhett Lowder (forearm)
Team Records & Form
Recent Form:
- Blue Jays: 8 Overs in last 10 games; offense averaging 5.4 runs/game in that span.
- Reds: Won 3 straight; bullpen ERA 2.91 over last 10 games.
Projected Starting Pitchers
- TOR: RHP José Berríos (9–5, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) – 14 quality starts in 27 outings; 2.0 BB/9; thrives vs. LHB (.228 AVG against).
- CIN: LHP Nick Lodolo (8–7, 3.22 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) – 13 quality starts; elite control (1.7 BB/9); 8.7 K/9.
Key Player Matchups
Blue Jays Offense vs. Lodolo
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.287/.383/.476, 21 HR, 74 RBI) – 12.7% BB rate, low K rate (14.4%).
- Bo Bichette (.310/.354/.478, 17 HR, 88 RBI) – 4-for-4 with HR in series opener.
- George Springer (.264, 24 HR, 68 RBI) – Power/speed threat, 10 SB.
Reds Offense vs. Berríos
- Elly De La Cruz (.272/.341/.455, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 32 SB) – 6-game hit streak; 25.9% K rate.
- TJ Friedl (.267/.368/.376, 10 HR, 67 BB) – OBP weapon, table-setter.
- Spencer Steer (.235, 17 HR, 63 RBI) – Gap power, clutch hitting in RISP spots.
Series History
- 2025 Season: Reds lead series 1–0 after 5–4 walk-off win in opener.
- Recent Trend: Over has hit in 5 straight meetings.
- Venue Note: Great American Ball Park is top-10 in HR factor for LHB.
Betting Trends
- Blue Jays: 22–12 vs. LHP this season (.269 AVG, 2nd in MLB).
- Blue Jays: Over in 8 of last 10 games; 77–54–6 O/U on season.
- Reds: 4–6 ATS last 10; Over in 3 of last 4.
- Over has cashed in 5 straight head-to-head matchups.
Suggested Wagering Model
Model Inputs:
- TOR’s elite splits vs. LHP (Lodolo)
- GABP park factor favoring hitters, especially with warm weather
- Both bullpens showing recent volatility
- Historical Over trend in matchup
Game Odds
Toronto Blue Jays – 110
Cincinnati Reds 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Monday, September 1, 2025
