MLB Game Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (79-58) vs. Cincinnati Reds (69-68)

Venue & Game Info

• Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025 – First pitch 1:10 PM ET
• Venue: Great American Ball Park, 100 Joe Nuxhall Way, Cincinnati, OH 45202
• Broadcast: FDSOH (Reds), SNET (Blue Jays), MLB.TV (out‑of‑market)

Weather Forecast (Cincinnati, OH)

• Conditions: Clear skies, 77°F (25°C)
• Humidity: ~40%
• Wind: 6–8 mph, light breeze from left to right field
• Precipitation: 0% — no weather delays expected

Injury Report

Toronto Blue Jays

• Anthony Santander (OF) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder
• Daulton Varsho (OF) – Day‑to‑day, hand
• Yimi García (RP) – 60‑Day IL, ankle
• Nick Sandlin (RP) – 15‑Day IL, elbow
• Bowden Francis (SP) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder
• Max Scherzer (SP) – Day‑to‑day, back
• Ryan Burr (RP) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder
• Angel Bastardo (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Alek Manoah (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow

Cincinnati Reds

• Tyler Stephenson (C) – 10‑Day IL, thumb
• Graham Ashcraft (SP) – 15‑Day IL, forearm
• Ian Gibaut (RP) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder
• Chase Burns (SP) – 15‑Day IL, elbow
• Tyler Callihan (INF) – 60‑Day IL, forearm
• Wade Miley (SP) – 60‑Day IL, flexor strain
• Carson Spiers (SP) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder
• Rhett Lowder (SP) – 60‑Day IL, forearm
• Brandon Williamson (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Julian Aguiar (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow

Projected Starting Pitchers

• TOR: RHP Chris Bassitt (11‑7, 4.14 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 148 K in 150.2 IP) – 7 quality starts in last 10 outings.
• CIN: RHP Hunter Greene (5‑4, 2.81 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 94 K in 77 IP) – Allowed ≤3 ER in 13 of 14 starts this season.

Key Player Matchups

Blue Jays Offense

• Bo Bichette: .306 AVG, 40 2B, 16 HR, 86 RBI — elite contact bat, 14th in MLB RBI.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: .288 AVG, 30 2B, 21 HR, .384 OBP — 53rd in HR, 40th in RBI.
• George Springer: 24 HR, 4 HR in last 10 games — power surge entering series.
• Ernie Clement: .275 AVG, 25 2B, 9 HR — versatile infield production.

Reds Offense

• Elly De La Cruz: .272 AVG, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 32 SB — team leader in HR & RBI.
• TJ Friedl: .265 AVG, 18 2B, 10 HR, .366 OBP — table‑setter with speed.
• Spencer Steer: .236 AVG, 19 2B, 17 HR — steady middle‑order bat.
• Austin Hays: .264 AVG, 14 2B, 12 HR — multi‑hit threat.

Recent Form

Toronto Blue Jays

• Last 10: 5‑5 (.261 AVG, 4.45 ERA)
• Over has hit in 7 of last 10 games
• Road record: 34‑34

Cincinnati Reds

• Last 10: 2‑8 (.226 AVG, 4.45 ERA)
• Snapped 5‑game losing streak with 7‑4 win vs. STL
• Home record: 37‑31

Series History

• 2025 Season: First meeting
• 2024 Season: Reds won 2‑1
• All‑time: Blue Jays lead 15‑12

Betting Trends

Toronto Blue Jays

• 58.8% win rate as underdog (40‑28)
• Over in 75 of 136 games this season
• 3‑7 ATS last 10 games

Cincinnati Reds

• 51.7% win rate as favorite (31‑29)
• Over in 4 of last 10 games
• 4‑6 ATS last 10 games

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Greene’s dominance at home vs. Jays’ elite contact rate (MLB‑low 6.72 K/game)
• Reds’ bullpen edge (3.89 ERA vs. Jays’ 4.09)
• Jays’ recent Over trend (7 of last 10) vs. Reds’ inconsistent offense
• Weather: neutral to slightly pitcher‑friendly with mild cross‑breeze