MLB Game Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (68-69) vs. Cincinnati Reds (68-68)

Venue & Game Info

• Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025
• First Pitch: 12:10 PM ET / 9:10 AM PT
• Venue: Great American Ball Park, 100 Joe Nuxhall Way, Cincinnati, OH 45202
• Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
• Broadcast: Bally Sports Midwest, Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.TV

Weather Update

• Conditions: Outdoor venue; warm late‑summer afternoon.
• Forecast at First Pitch: Mostly sunny, ~81°F (27°C), light SW breeze 5–7 mph, humidity ~60%.
• Impact: Slightly hitter‑friendly conditions with warm temps and light wind toward left‑center.

Injury / Suspension Report

St. Louis Cardinals:

• Alec Burleson (OF) – 10‑Day IL (wrist)
• Yohel Pozo (C) – 7‑Day IL (concussion)
• John King (LHP) – 15‑Day IL (back)
• Brendan Donovan (INF) – 10‑Day IL (groin)
• Victor Scott II (OF) – 10‑Day IL (ankle)
• Nolan Arenado (3B) – 10‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Zack Thompson (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (lat)

Cincinnati Reds:

• Graham Ashcraft (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (forearm)
• Ian Gibaut (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Tyler Stephenson (C) – 10‑Day IL (thumb)
• Chase Burns (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (elbow)
• Wade Miley (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (flexor)
• Rhett Lowder (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (forearm)
• Carson Spiers (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Tyler Callihan (INF) – 60‑Day IL (forearm)
• Brandon Williamson (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Julian Aguiar (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)

Probable Pitchers

• STL: RHP Andre Pallante (6‑12, 5.44 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 95 K in 139 IP)
  • Ground‑ball specialist; current Reds hitters own just a .550 OPS against him.
  • Vulnerable with runners in scoring position (.342 BABIP against).
• CIN: RHP Brady Singer (11‑9, 4.06 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 132 K in 137.1 IP)

• Making start on 6 days’ rest; career ERA on such rest is 5.14 vs. 4.24 overall.
• Above‑average strikeout rate (8.7 K/9).

Recent Form

St. Louis Cardinals – Last 5: W‑W‑W‑L‑L

• Won first two games of this series (7‑5, 4‑2).
• 4‑1 in last 5 vs. CIN; 4‑1 in last 5 at Great American Ball Park.
• Offense averaging 4.4 runs/game this season (16th MLB).

Cincinnati Reds – Last 5: L‑L‑L‑L‑L

• On a 5‑game losing streak; 1‑8 since Aug. 20.
• Offense averaging 4.46 runs/game; 27‑9 when hitting 2+ HR in a game.

Series History

• 2025 Season Series: STL leads 6‑3.
• Cardinals have taken 3 straight overall and 4 of last 5 in Cincinnati.

Key Player Matchups

• Masyn Winn (STL) vs. Brady Singer
  • Winn: 27 doubles, 9 HR, 50 RBI; contact hitter who can exploit Singer’s occasional command lapses.
• Alec Burleson (STL) – if active – vs. Reds Bullpen
  • Burleson: 13‑for‑42 (.310) last 10 games before IL stint.
• Spencer Steer (CIN) vs. Andre Pallante
  • Steer: 19 doubles, 17 HR, 63 RBI; power bat in middle of Reds order.
• Noelvi Marte (CIN) vs. STL Middle Relief
• Marte: 11‑for‑40 with 3 HR in last 10 games; potential late‑inning threat.

Betting Trends

St. Louis Cardinals:

• 7‑4 in last 11 road games.
• Under is 4‑1 in last 5 day games.

Cincinnati Reds:

• 2‑8 in last 10 overall.
• 1‑3 as moneyline favorite in last 4.
• Over is 4‑1 in last 5 home games vs. STL.

Head‑to‑Head:

• STL 4‑1 ATS in last 5 at Great American Ball Park.

Suggested Wagering Model

Primary Lean: Cardinals +1.5 (‑176)

• STL’s recent dominance in series + Pallante’s track record vs. CIN bats.

Secondary Lean: Under 8.5 (‑109)

• Both lineups rank in bottom third of MLB OPS; Pallante’s ground‑ball profile + Singer’s ability to limit HRs could suppress scoring.

Prop Angle: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs

• Both starters capable of navigating early innings; Reds offense in slump.