MLB Game Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (67-69) vs. Cincinnati Reds (68-67)

Venue & Game Info

• Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025 – First pitch 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Great American Ball Park, 100 Joe Nuxhall Way, Cincinnati, OH 45202
• Broadcast: FDSOH (Cincinnati), FDSMW (St. Louis), MLB.TV (regional restrictions apply)

Weather Outlook (Cincinnati, OH)

• Forecast: Mostly clear, 78°F at first pitch
• Wind: 6–8 mph out to left-center — slight boost for RH pull hitters
• Precipitation: <5% chance — no delays expected
• Impact: Mildly hitter-friendly given warm temps and wind direction

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds:

• Graham Ashcraft (forearm) – 15-Day IL
• Ian Gibaut (shoulder), Wade Miley (flexor), Rhett Lowder (forearm), Carson Spiers (shoulder), Tyler Callihan (forearm), Brandon Williamson (elbow), Julian Aguiar (elbow) – 60-Day IL
• Tyler Stephenson (thumb) – 10-Day IL
• Chase Burns (elbow) – 15-Day IL

St. Louis Cardinals:

• Alec Burleson (wrist) – 10-Day IL
• Yohel Pozo (concussion) – 7-Day IL
• John King (back) – 15-Day IL
• Brendan Donovan (groin), Victor Scott II (ankle), Nolan Arenado (shoulder) – 10-Day IL
• Zack Thompson (lat) – 60-Day IL

Probable Pitching Matchup

Recent Form

Cincinnati Reds (Last 10): 3-7

• Runs/Game: 3.2
• Team BA: .238
• ERA: 4.14
• Key: Lost 4 straight before this series; offense slumping outside of Elly De La Cruz

St. Louis Cardinals (Last 10): 5-5

• Runs/Game: 4.6
• Team BA: .222
• ERA: 4.81
• Key: Won 4 of last 5; bullpen shaky but timely hitting from Contreras & Herrera

Series History

• 2025 Season Series: Cardinals lead 5–3
• Recent: STL took opener of current set 7–5 on Aug. 29
• All-Time: Cardinals lead 1,235–1,124–21

Player Matchups to Watch

• Elly De La Cruz (CIN) – .273 BA, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 32 SB; 2 XBH in last 5 games vs STL
• TJ Friedl (CIN) – .264 BA, 10 HR; 3-game hit streak
• Spencer Steer (CIN) – 17 HR; power threat vs RHP
• Willson Contreras (STL) – .253 BA, 19 HR, 73 RBI; .517 SLG vs LHP this year
• Masyn Winn (STL) – .258 BA, 27 2B; speed and gap power
• Ivan Herrera (STL) – .285 BA, 11 HR; 8 RBI in last 10 games

Betting Trends

Cincinnati Reds:

• 52.6% win rate when favored this season
• 10-7 when favored at -149 or shorter
• Over is 4-6 in last 10 games

St. Louis Cardinals:

• 47.9% win rate as underdog this season
• 11-16 as +124 or longer dog
• Over is 6-3-1 in last 10 games

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Abbott’s dominance vs STL in 2025 (11 IP, 1 ER)
• Reds’ recent offensive slump vs STL’s improved form
• Cardinals’ bullpen allowing 33.5% inherited runners to score
• Weather slightly aiding RH power

Model Output:

• Projected Score: Reds 4.7 – Cardinals 3.9
• Win Probability: Reds 56%
• Best Edges:

1. Reds ML – Abbott’s matchup advantage
2. Over 8.5 – STL’s recent scoring uptick + CIN’s potential bounce-back
3. Contreras Over 1.5 H+R+RBI – strong splits vs LHP