MLB Game Preview: Seattle Mariners (73-65) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (68-69)

Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, September 2, 2025 – First Pitch 7:35 p.m. ET
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field, 1 Steinbrenner Drive, Tampa, FL 33614
• Surface: Natural Grass
• Broadcast: FDSSUN (Tampa), ROOT Sports NW (Seattle), MLB.tv (out-of-market)

Weather Report (Tampa, FL – Game Time)

• Conditions: Clear skies, warm and humid
• Temperature: ~84°F (29°C) at first pitch
• Wind: ~7 mph out to right field — slight boost to LHB power
• Precipitation: 0% chance
• Impact: Slightly hitter-friendly for left-handed pull hitters

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

• 15‑Day IL: Logan Evans (elbow)
• 60‑Day IL: Gregory Santos (knee), Ryan Bliss (biceps), Trent Thornton (Achilles)

Tampa Bay Rays

• 10‑Day IL: Jonathan Aranda (wrist), Taylor Walls (groin), Jonny Deluca (hamstring)
• 60‑Day IL: Stuart Fairchild (oblique), Hunter Bigge (lat), Shane McClanahan (triceps), Alex Faedo (shoulder), Nathan Lavender (elbow), Manuel Rodriguez (forearm)

Team Records & Form

Recent Form:

• Mariners: Offense middling (.234 BA last 10), pitching ERA 4.09; 5–4 as ML favorite in last 9.
• Rays: Hot stretch (7–3 last 10), offense averaging 5.8 runs/game, pitching ERA 2.42.

Projected Starting Pitchers

• SEA: RHP Bryan Woo (12–7, 2.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 166 K in 164.2 IP) – 19 quality starts; opponents hitting .207; 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 K vs. TB earlier this season.
• TB: RHP Drew Rasmussen (10–5, 2.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 113 K in 129.2 IP) – 4 straight quality starts; opponents hitting .213; 6 IP, 0 ER vs. SEA in August.

Key Player Matchups

Mariners Offense vs. Rasmussen

• Cal Raleigh (.243, MLB‑leading 50 HR, 107 RBI) – Power from both sides, 1 HR every 10.8 AB.
• Julio Rodríguez (.264, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 24 SB) – 7‑game hit streak, .368 BA last 10 games.
• Eugenio Suárez (.238, 42 HR, 25 2B) – 4 RBI in last 5 games; 1-for-8 career vs. Rasmussen.

Rays Offense vs. Woo

• Junior Caminero (.258, 39 HR, 96 RBI) – 97 mph avg. exit velo over last week.
• Yandy Díaz (.286, 22 HR, 76 RBI) – Elite contact, 14.6% K rate.
• Brandon Lowe (.264, 28 HR) – 3 HR in last 5 games.

Series History

• 2025 Season: Mariners lead 3–1.
• Recent: Mariners have won 6 of last 7 meetings since June 2024.
• Venue Note: Rays 4–1 in last 5 home games vs. SEA.

Betting Trends

• Mariners: 54.7% win rate as favorite; Over in 72 of 137 games.
• Rays: 39.7% win rate as underdog; Over in 57 of 136 games.
• Mariners: 4–6 ATS last 10; Rays: 7–3 ATS last 10.
• First 5 Innings Under has hit in 20 of Rasmussen’s 26 starts.

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Both starters top‑15 in ERA, WHIP <1.00
• Rays’ recent offensive surge vs. Mariners’ power bats
• Park factor: modest HR boost to RF, neutral overall
• Bullpen edge: slight to SEA (9th in MLB in reliever WAR)