MLB Game Preview: San Francisco Giants (69-69) vs. Colorado Rockies (39-99)

Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, September 2, 2025 – First Pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Daikin Park, 501 Crawford Street, Houston, TX 77002
• Surface: Natural Grass
• Broadcast: TBS (national), SCHN (Houston), YES (New York), MLB.tv (out-of-market)

Weather Report (Houston, TX – Game Time)

• Conditions: Clear skies, roof likely closed if temps/humidity dictate
• Temperature: ~84°F (29°C) outside; climate-controlled inside if roof closed
• Wind: ~7 mph out to left-center (if open) — mild boost to RH pull hitters
• Precipitation: 0% chance
• Impact: Minimal if roof closed; slight HR boost to LF if open

Injury Report

New York Yankees

• Brent Headrick – 15‑Day IL (forearm)
• Austin Slater – 10‑Day IL (hamstring)
• Jonathan Loáisiga – 15‑Day IL (back)
• Clarke Schmidt – 60‑Day IL (forearm)
• Oswaldo Cabrera – 60‑Day IL (ankle)
• Jake Cousins – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Gerrit Cole – 60‑Day IL (elbow)

Houston Astros

• Brendan Rodgers – 60‑Day IL (oblique)
• Pedro León – 60‑Day IL (knee)
• Victor Caratini – 7‑Day IL (concussion)
• John Rooney – 15‑Day IL (concussion/nasal)
• Brandon Walter – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Bennett Sousa – 15‑Day IL (elbow)
• Josh Hader – 15‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Isaac Paredes – 60‑Day IL (hamstring)
• Jake Meyers – 10‑Day IL (calf)
• Zach Dezenzo – 60‑Day IL (hand)
• Ronel Blanco – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Hayden Wesneski – 60‑Day IL (elbow)

Team Records & Form

Recent Form:

• Yankees: MLB‑leading 5.25 runs/game; 23 HR in last 10 games; pitching ERA 2.97 in that span.
• Astros: 4.2 runs/game on season; .248 BA last 10; pitching ERA 3.13 last 10.

Projected Starting Pitchers

• NYY: LHP Max Fried (14–5, 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 154 K in 162.2 IP) – 7 scoreless innings in last start; 8–0 in first 8 starts after a team loss this year; opponents hitting .224.
• HOU: LHP Framber Valdez (12–7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 158 K in 164.1 IP) – 7 scoreless innings in last start; sinker generating 98th percentile GB rate; 5.64 ERA in August before bounce-back vs. COL.

Key Player Matchups

Yankees Offense vs. Valdez

• Aaron Judge (.324/.447/.653, 43 HR, 97 RBI) – MLB leader in AVG, OBP, SLG; 2-for-10 career vs. Valdez.
• Cody Bellinger (.279, 26 HR, 84 RBI) – Low GB%, high hard-hit rate vs. sinkers.
• Paul Goldschmidt (.278, 10 HR) – Veteran bat with all-field power.

Astros Offense vs. Fried

• Jose Altuve (.274, 24 HR, 68 RBI) – Aggressive early-count hitter; 37th in MLB HRs.
• Jeremy Peña (.307, 5 2B in last 10 games) – Team BA leader; .370 OBP last 10.
• Yordan Alvarez (recently activated) – Elite power threat; changes middle-of-order dynamic.

Series History

• 2025 Season: Astros lead 2–1 (all in NY); last meeting Aug. 10, HOU 7–1 win.
• All-Time (reg. season): Yankees lead 50–35;
• Postseason: Astros lead 4–0 in series; multiple ALCS wins over NY since 2017.
• Recent Trend: Astros have won 4 of last 6 overall vs. Yankees.

Betting Trends

• Yankees 66–49 as favorite (57.4% win rate); 7–3 last 10 ATS.
• Astros 26–18 as underdog (59.1% win rate); 6–4 last 10 ATS.
• Under is 3–5–2 in last 10 H2H meetings.
• Yankees lead MLB in HR (233) and SLG (.456).
• Astros 7th in MLB in team ERA (3.83) and WHIP (1.22).

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Pitching duel profile: Both starters with ERA ≤3.18, WHIP ≤1.20.
• Yankees’ power vs. Valdez’s GB% — advantage to low-GB hitters (Judge, Bellinger, Stanton).
• Astros’ offense inconsistent; Yankees’ bullpen edge in leverage spots.
• Series history: Astros’ postseason dominance, but Yankees with form edge.