MLB Game Preview: San Diego Padres (76-60) vs. Minnesota Twins (61-74)

Venue & Game Info

• Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025
• First Pitch: 1:05 PM ET / 10:05 AM PT
• Venue: Target Field, 1 Twins Way, Minneapolis, MN 55403
• Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
• Broadcast: Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Sports North, MLB.TV

Weather Update

• Conditions: Outdoor venue; warm late‑summer afternoon.
• Forecast at First Pitch: Mostly sunny, ~79°F (26°C), light NW breeze 5–7 mph, humidity ~55%.
• Impact: Slightly hitter‑friendly with warm temps; wind not expected to significantly affect ball flight.

Injury / Suspension Report

San Diego Padres:

• Xander Bogaerts (SS) – 10‑Day IL (foot)
• Jackson Merrill (OF) – 10‑Day IL (ankle)
• Michael King (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (knee)
• Jhony Brito (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (forearm)
• Joe Musgrove (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)

Minnesota Twins:

• Alan Roden (OF) – 60‑Day IL (thumb)
• Christian Vázquez (C) – 10‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Anthony Misiewicz (LHP) – 15‑Day IL (shoulder)
• David Festa (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Pablo López (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (shoulder)

Probable Pitchers

• SD: TBD — bullpen game possible after heavy relief usage in Game 2.
• MIN: RHP Joe Ryan (12‑7, 3.22 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 166 K in 148.2 IP)

• 13 quality starts in 2025; .213 opponent batting average.
• Last start: 5 IP, 6 ER vs. TOR; typically rebounds well after rough outings.

Recent Form

San Diego Padres – Last 5: W‑L‑L‑W‑W

• Offense erupted in Game 2 with a 12‑3 win (Elias Díaz 2 HR, 3 RBI; Ramón Laureano HR).
• Team batting .268 over last 10 games; pitching staff ERA 4.34 in that span.

Minnesota Twins – Last 5: L‑W‑L‑L‑L

• Dropped 3 straight; bullpen imploded in Game 2, allowing 11 runs after the 5th inning.
• Team ERA 7.24 over last 10 games; offense averaging 4.6 runs/game in that stretch.

Series History

• 2025 Season Series: Tied 1‑1 entering finale.
• Padres have outscored Twins 14‑6 through first two games.
• Last meeting before this series was 2023; Padres have won 4 of last 6 overall.

Key Player Matchups

• Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) vs. Joe Ryan (MIN)
  • Tatis: .266 AVG, 27 2B, 18 HR; dangerous vs. high‑velo fastballs.
  • Ryan: 29th percentile barrel rate allowed; must keep Tatis off balance with splitter/slider mix.
• Manny Machado (SD) vs. Twins Bullpen
  • Machado: 1,000+ hits with Padres after Game 2; thrives in late‑inning RBI spots.
• Byron Buxton (MIN) vs. Padres Pitching
  • Buxton: .270 AVG, 28 HR, 68 RBI; homered in Game 2 loss.
  • Padres’ staff has allowed just 139 HR all season (2nd fewest in MLB).
• Trevor Larnach (MIN) vs. Padres Lefties
• Larnach: .249 AVG, 16 HR; could see key ABs vs. SD’s left‑handed relief corps.

Betting Trends

San Diego Padres:

• 6‑4 in last 10 games; 3‑2 as underdog in that span.
• Over is 3‑1 in last 4 games.

Minnesota Twins:

• 3‑7 in last 10 games; 1‑3 as favorite in that span.
• Over has hit in 8 of last 10 games.

Head‑to‑Head:

• Over is 2‑0 in this series.
• Padres 4‑2 last 6 vs. Twins overall.

Suggested Wagering Model

Primary Lean: Over 8 Runs (‑120)

• Both teams trending Over; Twins’ bullpen struggles + Padres’ hot bats point to runs.

Secondary Lean: Padres +1.5 (‑196)

• San Diego’s offense in rhythm; Twins’ recent form shaky despite Ryan’s solid season.

Prop Angle: Elias Díaz to Record an RBI

• Coming off 2‑HR, 3‑RBI game; likely to hit in middle of order vs. Ryan and relief corps.