MLB Game Preview: New York Yankees (75-60) vs. Chicago White Sox (48-87)

Game & Venue Details

• Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025 – First Pitch 7:10 p.m. ET / 6:10 p.m. CT
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field (Rate Field), 333 W. 35th Street, Chicago, IL 60616
• Surface: Natural grass
• Broadcast: YES Network (NY), CHSN (Chicago)

Weather Outlook

• First Pitch Forecast: ~70°F, humidity ~54%, winds ~8 mph (left-to-right across the diamond)
• Precipitation: 0% chance — dry conditions expected
• Impact: Mild breeze could slightly aid balls hit toward right field; otherwise neutral hitting environment

Injury Report

New York Yankees

• Out: Gerrit Cole (elbow, season), Ryan Yarbrough (oblique, 15-day IL), Jonathan Loáisiga (back, 15-day IL), Austin Slater (hamstring, 10-day IL), Brent Headrick (forearm, 15-day IL)
• Impact: Rotation depth tested; bullpen missing key late-inning arm

Chicago White Sox

• Out: Luis Robert Jr. (hamstring, 10-day IL), Miguel Vargas (wrist, day-to-day), Elvis Peguero (elbow, 15-day IL), Owen White (hip, 15-day IL), Dan Altavilla (lat, 15-day IL), multiple pitchers on 60-day IL
• Impact: Missing top power bat (Robert) and multiple bullpen arms

Projected Starting Pitchers

Key Player Matchups

• Aaron Judge (NYY) – .323 AVG, 41 HR, 95 RBI; elite OBP (.440) and SLG (.666); faces a pitcher who relies heavily on fastball/slider mix
• Cody Bellinger (NYY) – .283 AVG, 26 HR; batting .556 over last 5 games
• Trent Grisham (NYY) – 28 HR; 7 HR in last 10 games; grand slam last night
• Lenyn Sosa (CWS) – .270 AVG, 17 HR, 60 RBI; team leader in all three categories
• Andrew Benintendi (CWS) – 6-game hit streak; batting .400 over last 5 games

Recent Team Form

Yankees (Last 10): 8–2, averaging 6.3 R/G, 26 HR, 3.07 ERA

• Won 6 straight; offense leading MLB in August HR and SLG%

White Sox (Last 10): 3–7, averaging 5.0 R/G, 5.42 ERA

• Lost 4 straight; allowed 10+ runs in 3 consecutive games before last night

Series History

• 2025 Season: Yankees lead 2–0 in current series; outscored CWS 20–6 in first two games
• Last 15 Meetings: Yankees 11–4 vs. White Sox
• At Chicago (since 2023): Yankees 8–4

Betting Trends

• Yankees: 7–3 ATS last 10; Over in 8 of last 10
• White Sox: 6–4 ATS last 10; Over in 7 of last 10
• Yankees 10–7 this season when favored at –219 or shorter
• White Sox 6–39 as +180 or longer underdog

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• SP splits (Schlittler’s 2.76 ERA vs. Smith’s 3.87 ERA)
• Team wRC+ last 14 days (NYY 142, CWS 98)
• Bullpen ERA last 30 days (NYY 3.54, CWS 5.91)
• Park factor for HR (Rate Field slightly boosts LHB pull power)
• Recent scoring trends (NYY +2.3 R/G differential in last 10)