MLB Game Preview: New York Mets (74-64) vs. Detroit Tigers (80-59)

Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, September 2, 2025 – First Pitch 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Comerica Park, 2100 Woodward Avenue, Detroit, MI 48226
• Surface: Natural Grass
• Broadcast: SNY (NYM), FDSDET (DET), MLB.tv (out-of-market)

Weather Report (Detroit, MI – Game Time)

• Conditions: Clear skies, low humidity
• Temperature: ~75°F (24°C)
• Wind: ~9 mph, in from left field — could suppress deep fly balls to LF
• Precipitation: 0% chance
• Impact: Slight lean toward pitchers on balls hit to left; neutral for center/right

Injury Report

New York Mets

• C Francisco Álvarez – 10-day IL (thumb UCL sprain, broken pinky; hopeful return late Sept)
• RHP Reed Garrett – 15-day IL (elbow inflammation)
• RHP Frankie Montas – 60-day IL (elbow)
• OF Jesse Winker – 60-day IL (back)
• Multiple pitchers (Megill, Canning, Kranick, Núñez, Minter, Young, Scott, Smith) on 60-day IL
• INF Nick Madrigal – 60-day IL (shoulder fracture)
• OF Jose Siri – 60-day IL (tibia fracture)

Detroit Tigers

• OF Matt Vierling – 10-day IL (oblique)
• OF Parker Meadows – 10-day IL (quad)
• RHP Reese Olson – 60-day IL (shoulder)
• RHP Paul Sewald – 60-day IL (shoulder)
• LHP Sean Guenther – 60-day IL (hip)
• RHP Jason Foley – 60-day IL (shoulder surgery)
• RHP Jackson Jobe – 60-day IL (flexor strain)
• RHP Alex Cobb – 60-day IL (hip)
• RHP Ty Madden – 60-day IL (shoulder)
• RHP José Urquidy – 60-day IL (Tommy John recovery)

Team Records & Form

Recent Form:

• Mets: 6–4 in last 10, offense surging (avg. 7.9 runs/game over that span)
• Tigers: 5–5 in last 10, offense steady but pitching showing cracks (4.96 ERA last 10)

Projected Starting Pitchers

• NYM: RHP Nolan McLean (3–0, 0.89 ERA, 0.74 WHIP) – Rookie sensation, 21 K in 20.1 IP, has not allowed more than 1 ER in any start. Sweeper generating elite whiff rates.
• DET: RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long (0–1, 4.32 ERA) – First start of 2025, 7th MLB appearance; hasn’t pitched in over a year before recent call-up.

Key Player Matchups

Mets Offense vs. Gipson-Long

• Juan Soto (.257/.397/.518, 36 HR, 90 RBI) – Coming off 6 RBI game with grand slam + triple.
• Francisco Lindor (.267, 26 HR, 76 RBI, 27 SB) – 6-game hit streak.
• Pete Alonso (.269, 31 HR, 110 RBI) – Power threat, RBI leader.

Tigers Offense vs. McLean

• Riley Greene (.270/.324/.515, 32 HR, 101 RBI) – 4-game hit streak, top-5 in MLB RBI.
• Gleyber Torres (.264, 14 HR, 72 BB) – OBP weapon.
• Spencer Torkelson (.235, 28 HR) – Power bat, but high K rate vs. elite breaking balls.

Series History

• All-Time: Tigers lead 18–12 in regular season meetings
• Recent: Tigers won 2 of 3 in 2024; Mets took Game 1 of this series 10–8 behind Soto’s historic performance.
• Trend: Mets have struggled historically in Detroit (4–11 all-time away).

Betting Trends

• Mets are 3–0 in McLean’s starts (all as favorite).
• Mets have hit the Over in 7 of last 10 games.
• Tigers are 5–0 ATS in last 5 as home underdog.
• Head-to-head: Under has cashed in 3 of last 4 meetings before Monday’s slugfest.

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Pitching edge: McLean’s dominance vs. Tigers’ high K rate (8.81/game)
• Mets offense hot streak (9.5 runs/game last 4)
• Tigers’ bullpen depleted by injuries
• Weather: Slight wind-in effect, but warm temps keep ball carry neutral