MLB Game Preview: Milwaukee Brewers (84-52) at Toronto Blue Jays (78-57)

Venue, Date & Time

• Venue: Rogers Centre, One Blue Jays Way, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
• Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025 — First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Surface: Artificial turf, retractable roof (10th-shallowest CF fence in MLB — boosts HRs to both sides)

Weather & Roof Status

• Forecast: 77°F (25°C), partly cloudy, light winds (6 mph WNW)
• Impact: Rogers Centre roof likely closed if humidity rises or showers threaten — neutralizing wind but maintaining the HR-friendly dimensions.

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

• OF Jackson Chourio — Probable, returning from hamstring strain
• SS Joey Ortiz — Out, hamstring
• RHP Trevor Megill — 15-day IL, flexor strain
• LHP DL Hall — 15-day IL, oblique
• 1B Rhys Hoskins — 10-day IL, thumb
• Multiple pitchers on 60-day IL (Montgomery, Gasser, Thomas)

Toronto Blue Jays

• OF Daulton Varsho — Day-to-day, hand contusion (X-rays negative)
• RP Yimi García — 15-day IL, ankle
• SP Alek Manoah — 60-day IL, elbow
• OF Anthony Santander — 60-day IL, shoulder
• Multiple bullpen arms on IL (Francis, Burr, Sandlin)

Projected Starting Pitchers

Key Player Matchups

Brewers Bats vs. Gausman

• Sal Frelick (.298 AVG) — LH bat with CF power to shallow fences
• Christian Yelich (26 HR, 90 RBI) — Top-10 RBI in MLB, power to all fields
• William Contreras — 4-game hit streak, .368 last 5 games
• Andrew Vaughn — 3-for-5, 2 RBI in series opener

Blue Jays Bats vs. Priester

• Bo Bichette — .307 AVG, 12-game hit streak, .462 last 10 games
• George Springer — 3 HR in last 5 games, .478 AVG in that span
• Davis Schneider — 1.094 OPS in August, crushes sinkers (Priester’s primary pitch)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — .292 AVG, 21 HR, elite OBP

Recent Form

Milwaukee Brewers

• Last 5: W-L-L-W-W
• Best road record in MLB (39-28)
• Lead NL in road batting average (.272)
• Won 14 straight earlier in August — franchise record

Toronto Blue Jays

• Last 5: L-W-L-W-L
• 44-22 at home
• 6 straight Overs before series opener
• AL-best team batting average (.268)

Series History

• All-time: Brewers lead 168-125 (.573)
• Recent: Brewers 4-2 in last 6 vs. Toronto
• 2024: Brewers won 2-1 season series
• No postseason meetings

Betting Trends

• Brewers: 39-28 road record; 24-20 as road underdog; Over in 4 of last 5 games
• Blue Jays: 28-12 as home favorite; Over in 6 straight before series opener
• Head-to-Head: Over has hit in 4 of last 6 meetings
• Pitcher Trends: Priester — Over in 4 of last 6 starts; Gausman — Over in 3 of last 5

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Park factor: +HR boost to both sides
• Priester’s recent control issues (5 BB last start) vs. Jays’ patient lineup
• Gausman’s August struggles (4.06 ERA) vs. Brewers’ road power
• Both offenses trending Over