MLB Game Preview: Miami Marlins (65-73) vs. Washington Nationals (54-83)

Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, September 2, 2025 – First Pitch 6:45 p.m. ET
• Venue: Nationals Park, 1500 South Capitol Street SE, Washington, D.C. 20003
• Surface: Natural Grass
• Broadcast: MASN (WSH), Bally Sports Florida (MIA), MLB.tv (out-of-market)

Weather Report (Washington, D.C. – Game Time)

• Conditions: Clear skies, low humidity
• Temperature: ~78°F (26°C)
• Wind: ~6–8 mph out to left-center — slight boost to RH pull hitters
• Precipitation: 0% chance
• Impact: Slightly hitter-friendly for fly balls to left

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

• 10‑Day IL: Graham Pauley (oblique), Dane Myers (oblique), Kyle Stowers (oblique)
• 15‑Day IL: Edward Cabrera (elbow), Ryan Gusto (shoulder), Janson Junk (arm)
• 60‑Day IL: Jesus Tinoco (forearm), Braxton Garrett (elbow), Anthony Bender (tibia), Andrew Nardi (back), Tyler Zuber (lat), Griffin Conine (arm), Max Meyer (hip), Ryan Weathers (lat)

Washington Nationals

• 10‑Day IL: Drew Millas (finger), Keibert Ruiz (concussion)
• 15‑Day IL: MacKenzie Gore (shoulder)
• 60‑Day IL: Trevor Williams (elbow), Derek Law (forearm), DJ Herz (elbow), Josiah Gray (elbow)

Team Records & Form

Recent Form:

• Marlins: 7–3 to the Over in last 10; offense averaging 4.8 runs/game in that span but pitching ERA 6.33.
• Nationals: 3–7 ATS last 10; offense struggling at 2.7 runs/game over that stretch.

Projected Starting Pitchers

• MIA: RHP Adam Mazur (0–1, 5.59 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) – 3rd MLB start; 6.5 K/9, .231 BAA; one quality start in two outings.
• WSH: RHP Cade Cavalli (1–1, 5.11 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) – 6th start; 8.0 K/9, .308 BAA; two quality starts in five outings.

Key Player Matchups

Marlins Offense vs. Cavalli

• Xavier Edwards (.284/.341/.357, 20 2B, 24 SB) – Elite contact, low K rate (13.9%).
• Otto Lopez (.242, 12 HR, 43 BB) – Switch-hitter, solid OBP vs. RHP.
• Agustin Ramirez (.231, 19 HR, 28 2B) – Power bat, but high swing-and-miss.

Nationals Offense vs. Mazur

• C.J. Abrams (.265, 17 HR, 53 RBI, 34 BB) – Speed threat, gap power.
• James Wood (.257, 26 HR, 84 RBI) – Team HR/RBI leader, top-25 in MLB HRs.
• Luis García Jr. (.263, 26 2B, 11 HR) – Contact bat, occasional pop.

Series History

• 2025 Season: Marlins lead 5–2.
• Recent: Marlins have won 7 of last 10 meetings.
• Venue Note: Nationals 2–5 vs. Marlins at home since start of 2024.

Betting Trends

• Marlins: 81–56 ATS this season; 7–3 to Over last 10.
• Nationals: 65–70 ATS; 3–7 ATS last 10.
• Over is 6–2 in last 8 head-to-head matchups.
• Nationals 2–11 as ML favorite of -115 or shorter in 2025.

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Both starters with ERA >5.00 and WHIP >1.45
• Marlins’ offense in better recent form; Nationals’ bats cold
• Bullpen edge: slight to Miami despite recent struggles
• Weather: mild boost to RH power