MLB Game Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers (78-59) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (61-77)

Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, September 2, 2025 – First Pitch 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: PNC Park, 115 Federal Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15212
• Surface: Natural Grass
• Broadcast: SportsNet LA (LAD), SportsNet Pittsburgh (PIT), MLB.tv (out-of-market)

Weather Report (Pittsburgh, PA – Game Time)

• Conditions: Clear skies, comfortable late-summer evening
• Temperature: ~74°F (23°C)
• Wind: ~7–9 mph, light breeze from left to right field — minimal HR impact
• Precipitation: 0% chance
• Impact: Neutral for hitters and pitchers; no weather-driven edge

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

• 10‑Day IL: Max Muncy (oblique), Tommy Edman (ankle)
• 15‑Day IL: Alex Vesia (oblique), Brock Stewart (shoulder)
• 60‑Day IL: Roki Sasaki (shoulder), Tony Gonsolin (elbow), Evan Phillips (forearm), Kyle Hurt (elbow), Michael Grove (shoulder), Brusdar Graterol (shoulder), River Ryan (elbow), Gavin Stone (shoulder)

Pittsburgh Pirates

• 10‑Day IL: Ronny Simon (shoulder), Jack Suwinski (groin)
• 60‑Day IL: Endy Rodríguez (elbow), Enmanuel Valdez (shoulder), Justin Lawrence (elbow), Jared Jones (elbow)

Team Records & Form

Recent Form:

• Dodgers: Offense cooled (.225 BA last 10), but pitching steady (3.17 ERA).
• Pirates: Surging with strong pitching (2.17 ERA last 10), balanced hitting (.261 BA).

Projected Starting Pitchers

• LAD: LHP Clayton Kershaw (9–2, 3.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) – 37-year-old veteran, 6 quality starts in 17 outings, elite command (2.1 BB/9).
• PIT: RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (3–7, 3.86 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) – 12th start of season, hasn’t gone past 5 IP often, solid ground-ball profile.

Key Player Matchups

Dodgers Offense vs. Mlodzinski

• Shohei Ohtani (.276/.386/.600, 45 HR, 85 RBI, 17 SB) – Top-3 in MLB HRs, 14.8% BB rate.
• Mookie Betts (.250, 14 HR, 53 RBI) – 3-game hit streak, elite plate discipline.
• Freddie Freeman (.300, 18 HR, 36 2B) – Contact machine, gap-to-gap power.

Pirates Offense vs. Kershaw

• Bryan Reynolds (.245/.310/.407, 14 HR, 68 RBI) – Switch-hitter, doubles power.
• Oneil Cruz (.235, 19 HR) – Long-levered power threat, swing-and-miss risk vs. Kershaw’s slider.
• Tommy Pham (.264, 8 HR) – Veteran bat, 11 RBI in last 10 games.

Series History

• 2025 Season: Dodgers lead 2–1 entering this game.
• Recent Trend: Dodgers 6–1 in last 7 vs. Pirates.
• At PNC Park: Dodgers have won 4 of last 5 visits.

Betting Trends

• Dodgers are 5–0 in Kershaw’s last 5 starts.
• Dodgers have hit the Over in 5 of last 7 games.
• Pirates are 8–2 ATS in last 10 games.
• Under has hit in 6 of Pirates’ last 10.

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Pitching edge: Kershaw’s command vs. Pirates’ bottom-ranked slugging (.352)
• Dodgers’ power (202 HR, 2nd MLB) vs. PNC Park’s HR suppression — may limit long balls but still favors gap hitters
• Pirates’ bullpen usage high due to Mlodzinski’s short outings
• Both teams’ recent ERA under 3.25 last 10 games