MLB Game Preview: Cleveland Guardians (68-68) vs. Boston Red Sox (77-62)

Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, September 2, 2025 – First Pitch 6:45 p.m. ET
• Venue: Fenway Park, 4 Jersey Street (Yawkey Way), Boston, MA 02215
• Surface: Natural Grass
• Broadcast: NESN (BOS), Bally Sports Great Lakes (CLE), MLB.tv (out-of-market)

Weather Report (Boston, MA – Game Time)

• Conditions: Clear skies, mild evening
• Temperature: ~73°F (23°C)
• Wind: ~7 mph out to left-center — slight boost to RH pull hitters
• Precipitation: 0% chance
• Impact: Slightly hitter-friendly for fly balls to left

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

• 10‑Day IL: Lane Thomas (foot)
• 60‑Day IL: Will Brennan (forearm), Andrew Walters (lat), Ben Lively (forearm), John Means (elbow), Sam Hentges (shoulder)

Boston Red Sox

• 10‑Day IL: Wilyer Abreu (calf)
• 15‑Day IL: Richard Fitts (biceps)
• 60‑Day IL: Triston Casas (knee), Marcelo Mayer (wrist), Josh Winckowski (elbow), Luis Guerrero (elbow), Kutter Crawford (knee), Patrick Sandoval (elbow), Liam Hendriks (hip), Tanner Houck (flexor), Hunter Dobbins (ACL)

Team Records & Form

Recent Form:

• Guardians: Lost 2 straight after 4‑game win streak; offense struggling (.170 BA last 10).
• Red Sox: Won 2 straight, 9–3 in last 12; pitching strong (3.34 ERA last 10).

Projected Starting Pitchers

• CLE: RHP Slade Cecconi (5–6, 4.41 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) – 19th start; 7.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9; 5.61 xERA suggests regression risk; 7–2 Under trend in road starts.
• BOS: LHP Garrett Crochet (14–5, 2.40 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) – 28th start; 11.2 K/9, 4th in MLB ERA; BOS 18–9 in his starts; elite vs. LHB and RHB; CLE hitting just .219 vs. LHP (28th MLB).

Key Player Matchups

Guardians Offense vs. Crochet

• José Ramírez (.280/.355/.496, 26 HR, 68 RBI, 36 SB) – Team leader in all major offensive categories.
• Steven Kwan (.274, 24 2B, 10 HR) – 6‑game hit streak; elite contact skills.
• Kyle Manzardo (.233, 24 HR) – Power bat, but high K% vs. elite velo.

Red Sox Offense vs. Cecconi

• Trevor Story (.260, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 24 SB) – Team leader in HR and RBI; 3‑for‑4 with HR in series opener.
• Jarren Duran (.260, 14 HR, 76 RBI, 22 SB) – 4‑game hit streak; speed threat.
• Alex Bregman (.287, 16 HR) – Veteran bat with gap power.

Series History

• 2025 Season: Red Sox lead 3–1.
• Recent: BOS has won 7 of last 10 vs. CLE.
• Venue Note: Guardians have lost 6 straight at Fenway Park.

Betting Trends

• BOS 18–9 in Crochet starts; 10–1 in his last 11 decisions.
• CLE 15–23 vs. LHP in 2025.
• Under is 6–2 in BOS last 8 games; 7–2 in Cecconi’s road starts.
• CLE offense ranks 30th in AVG (.223) and 29th in OPS (.660).

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Pitching mismatch: Crochet’s dominance vs. CLE’s bottom-tier splits vs. LHP
• Guardians’ road struggles (lost 6 straight away)
• Fenway Park neutral-to-slightly hitter-friendly, but BOS pitching form favors Under
• BOS bullpen stability vs. CLE’s limited late-game offense