MLB Game Preview: Baltimore Orioles (62-76) vs. San Diego Padres (76-62)

Game Overview

• Date & Time: Tuesday, September 2, 2025 – First Pitch 9:40 p.m. ET / 6:40 p.m. PT
• Venue: Petco Park, 100 Park Boulevard, San Diego, CA 92101
• Surface: Natural Grass
• Broadcast: MASN2 (BAL), SDPA (SD), MLB.tv (out-of-market)

Weather Report (San Diego, CA – Game Time)

• Conditions: Clear skies, mild evening
• Temperature: ~74°F (23°C)
• Wind: ~6–8 mph out to right-center — slight boost to LHB power
• Precipitation: 0% chance
• Impact: Slightly hitter-friendly for left-handed pull hitters if roof open (Petco is open-air)

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

• 10‑Day IL: Jordan Westburg (ankle), Tyler O’Neill (wrist), Adley Rutschman (oblique)
• 15‑Day IL: Colin Selby (hamstring)
• 60‑Day IL: Félix Bautista (shoulder), Jorge Mateo (elbow), Scott Blewett (elbow), Zach Eflin (back), Grayson Rodriguez (elbow), Tyler Wells (elbow — activated for start tonight), Brandon Young (hamstring), Gary Sánchez (knee)

San Diego Padres

• Day-to-Day: Fernando Tatis Jr. (lower half)
• 10‑Day IL: Xander Bogaerts (foot), Jackson Merrill (ankle)
• 15‑Day IL: Michael King (knee)
• 60‑Day IL: Jhony Brito (forearm), Joe Musgrove (elbow)
• Out for Season: Jason Adam (quadriceps tendon rupture, suffered Sept. 1)

Team Records & Form

Recent Form:

• Orioles: Snapped 2-game skid with 4–3 win in opener; offense averaging 4.4 runs/game on season; bullpen ERA 4.62 (28th MLB).
• Padres: Lost 4 of last 5; offense averaging 4.2 runs/game; bullpen ERA 3.11 (1st MLB).

Projected Starting Pitchers

• BAL: RHP Tyler Wells – Season debut after UCL brace surgery (June 2024). Career: 46 starts, 53 HR allowed in 95 games; 2024: 0–2, 5.87 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 15.1 IP.
• SD: RHP Yu Darvish (3–4, 5.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 42 K in 47.2 IP) – 2–1, 2.95 ERA at home in 2025; career vs. BAL: 0–2, 4.73 ERA, 10.1 K/9 in 2 starts.

Key Player Matchups

Orioles Offense vs. Darvish

• Gunnar Henderson (.280, 16 HR, 61 RBI) – Team leader in HR/RBI; .500 SLG vs. RHP.
• Jeremiah Jackson (.337, 11-game hit streak) – 3-for-5 with HR in opener.
• Samuel Basallo (.217, 2 2B in opener) – Gap power from left side.

Padres Offense vs. Wells

• Luis Arraez (.285, 150 H) – 3-for-4 in opener; elite contact hitter.
• Manny Machado (.286, 21 HR, 79 RBI) – Middle-order anchor.
• Ramon Laureano (.303, 22 HR, 69 RBI) – Team HR leader; RBI single in opener.

Series History

• All-Time: Padres lead 14–13 (regular season)
• 2025 Season: Orioles lead 1–0 after Monday’s 4–3 win.
• Recent: Padres took 2 of 3 in Baltimore in 2024; Orioles last won series in 2016.

Betting Trends

• Orioles: 3–9 last 12 games; Over is 6-1-1 in last 8 road games.
• Padres: 6–1-1 to Over in last 8 games; 13–7 as ML favorite of -172 or shorter.
• Both teams: Top-5 in MLB Under % on season (~56%), but recent Over surge for both.
• Padres have won 11 straight home games following a home loss.

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Wells’ first MLB start since April 2024; likely short leash → heavy bullpen usage for BAL (28th in ERA).
• Padres’ elite bullpen (1st MLB) offsets Darvish’s volatility.
• Both lineups missing key bats (Rutschman, Bogaerts, possibly Tatis).
• Petco Park run suppression vs. recent Over trend.