MLB Game Preview: Atlanta Braves (61-75) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (79-57)

Venue & Game Info

• Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025
• First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET / 4:10 PM PT
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park, One Citizens Bank Way, Philadelphia, PA 19148
• Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
• Broadcast: ESPN (national), NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports South, MLB.TV

Weather Update

• Conditions: Outdoor venue; warm late‑summer evening.
• Forecast at First Pitch: ~84°F (29°C), mostly clear skies, light SW breeze 5–8 mph, humidity ~55%.
• Impact: Ideal hitting weather; warm temps could give the ball extra carry to the gaps.

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves:

• Aaron Bummer (LHP) – 15‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Luke Williams (INF) – 10‑Day IL (oblique)
• Austin Riley (3B) – 10‑Day IL (abdominal)
• Grant Holmes (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• AJ Smith‑Shawver (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (calf/elbow)
• Reynaldo López (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Joe Jiménez (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (knee)

Philadelphia Phillies:

• Jordan Romano (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (finger)
• Zack Wheeler (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (blood clot)

Probable Pitchers

• ATL: RHP Hurston Waldrep (4‑0, 0.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 24 K in 30 IP)
  • Rookie sensation; Braves are 5‑0 in his appearances.
  • Has allowed just 3 ER in 4 starts; opponents hitting .198 against him.
• PHI: LHP Jesús Luzardo (12‑6, 4.23 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 175 K in 149 IP)

• Power lefty with swing‑and‑miss stuff (10.6 K/9).
• Phillies are 1‑2 in his last 3 starts; can be vulnerable to RHB power.

Recent Form

Atlanta Braves – Last 5: L‑L‑L‑W‑W

• Lost first three games of this series by scores of 19‑4, 2‑1, and 3‑2.
• Offense has scored just 7 runs in the series after plating 24 in previous set vs. Miami.
• Team ERA 4.44 (22nd MLB); offense averaging 4.5 runs/game (14th MLB).

Philadelphia Phillies – Last 5: W‑W‑W‑L‑L

• Have won 8 of last 9 at home; 45‑22 home record this season.
• Scored 6+ runs in 6 of last 9 home games.
• Pitching staff ERA 3.82 (7th MLB); offense averaging 4.81 runs/game (9th MLB).

Series History

• 2025 Season Series: Phillies lead 8‑4.
• Phillies have won 5 of last 6 meetings at Citizens Bank Park.
• Braves have been outscored 29‑9 in this series.

Key Player Matchups

• Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. Hurston Waldrep
  • Schwarber: 49 HR, 119 RBI; coming off a historic 4‑HR game earlier in series.
  • Waldrep: Has yet to allow a HR in MLB career.
• Trea Turner (PHI) vs. ATL Bullpen
  • Turner: 15‑for‑45 (.333) last 10 games; speed threat if he reaches base.
• Ozzie Albies (ATL) vs. Jesús Luzardo
  • Albies: .236 AVG, 13 HR; switch‑hitter with pop from right side vs. LHP.
• Jurickson Profar (ATL) vs. PHI Middle Relief
• Profar: 13‑for‑40 (.325) last 10 games with 3 2B, 2 HR.

Betting Trends

Atlanta Braves:

• 3‑6 in last 9 games.
• 4 or fewer runs scored in 6 of last 8 games.
• Under is 4‑3 in last 7 games.

Philadelphia Phillies:

• 8‑1 in last 9 home games.
• 6‑4 O/U in last 10 overall.
• 3 or fewer runs scored in 3 of last 4 games despite big opener.

Head‑to‑Head:

• Under is 5‑3 in last 8 meetings.
• Phillies 8‑4 in season series.

Suggested Wagering Model

Primary Lean: Under 8.5 Runs (+100)

• Waldrep’s dominance + Braves’ offensive struggles + Phillies’ recent low‑scoring wins point to a tighter game.

Secondary Lean: Braves Moneyline (+128)

• Atlanta is undefeated in Waldrep’s starts; Phillies’ lineup has cooled since opener.

Prop Angle: Kyle Schwarber Anytime HR (+300)

• Schwarber’s power surge + favorable home park conditions vs. a rookie arm.