The 67th AutoZone Liberty Bowl features the No. 22 Navy Midshipmen (10-2) against the Cincinnati Bearcats (7-5) in a rematch of AAC rivals from their conference days, though Cincinnati now competes in the Big 12. Navy, under head coach Brian Newberry, aims for a program-record 11th win after a dominant season that included a thrilling 17-16 victory over Army in the annual rivalry game. Cincinnati, led by Scott Satterfield, seeks to build momentum after a .500 regular season marred by close losses. This neutral-site contest marks Navy’s first Liberty Bowl appearance since 2016 and Cincinnati’s second straight bowl, following a loss in the 2025 Fenway Bowl. With Navy’s triple-option attack clashing against Cincinnati’s balanced offense, expect a competitive affair highlighting G5 talent.
Venue Location
The game will be held at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. This 58,325-capacity venue, home to the Memphis Tigers, has hosted the Liberty Bowl since 1965 and offers a historic, open-air atmosphere with modern upgrades.
Memphis’ location gives both teams accessible travel, though Navy’s national fanbase may create a balanced crowd.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. CT (4:30 p.m. ET). The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
Memphis’ forecast for January 2, 2026, indicates mild but potentially wet conditions, with highs around 64°F and lows near 48°F. There’s a 55% chance of precipitation, winds at 12 mph, and a UV index of 1, suggesting possible rain that could slicken the field and favor Navy’s run-heavy offense. Attendees should prepare for variable weather, including umbrellas for light showers.
Injury Report and Opt-Outs
Bowl season sees minimal opt-outs, but injuries from the long campaign linger. Navy’s defense is relatively healthy, while Cincinnati’s key contributors appear set to play.
- Navy Midshipmen:
- Out: LB D. Spelios (undisclosed; out for season).
- Questionable: QB Blake Horvath (upper-body; recovered from November injury but monitored).
- Questionable: SB Brandon Chatman (undisclosed; November injury).
- Questionable: TE Jake Norris (undisclosed; November injury).
Navy’s triple-option relies on Horvath’s health; if limited, backups could shift dynamics.
- Cincinnati Bearcats:
- Questionable: RB Tawee Walker (undisclosed; status unclear post-season).
- Questionable: S Saboor (undisclosed; uncertain for bowl).
Cincinnati’s run game could suffer if Walker is out, forcing more reliance on QB Brendan Sorsby.
Overall, both teams enter with near-full rosters, emphasizing depth in a physical matchup.
Key Player Matchups
Navy’s triple-option (top-5 rushing) clashes with Cincinnati’s defense (top-50 against the run). Horvath’s dual-threat ability is central.
- Navy QB Blake Horvath vs. Cincinnati Secondary: Horvath (1,500+ rushing yards, 15 TDs; 1,000+ passing) leads Navy’s attack. Cincinnati’s DBs must contain his mobility, but injuries to Saboor could expose gaps for big plays.
- Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby vs. Navy Pass Rush: Sorsby (2,500+ yards, 20 TDs) needs time to find WR Cyrus Allen. Navy’s front, led by DE Landon Robinson, ranks top-30 in sacks and could disrupt.
- Navy RB Alex Tecza vs. Cincinnati Run Defense: Tecza (800+ yards) complements Horvath; Cincinnati’s DT Dontay Corleone must anchor to limit Navy’s ground control.
- Cincinnati RB Evan Pryor vs. Navy Front Seven: Pryor (700+ yards) provides balance; Navy’s LB Rayuan Lane III (team-leading tackles) aims to stuff runs.
Navy’s option could wear down Cincinnati late.
Recent Team Forms
- Navy Midshipmen: Finished 10-2 (7-1 AAC), with a strong close: W 17-16 vs. Army (12/13), W 34-31 vs. AFA (10/4), W 21-13 vs. Rice (9/27), W 42-23 at Tulsa (9/13), W 38-24 vs. UAB (9/6). Losses limited to ranked foes; averaged 35 points in wins. Form: W-W-W-W-W.
- Cincinnati Bearcats: Ended 7-5 (5-4 Big 12), inconsistent: L 20-17 vs. Neb (8/28), W 34-20 vs. BGSU (9/6), W 70-0 vs. NWST (9/13), mixed conference results with wins over TCU but losses to ranked teams. Averaged 30 points in wins. Form: W-L-W-L-W.
Conference vs. Conference
This AAC vs. Big 12 matchup underscores G5 vs. P4 dynamics. The Big 12 holds a 47-41 all-time bowl edge over the AAC, but the AAC has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head bowls, highlighting competitive parity.
Betting Trends
- Navy: 4-8 ATS overall, but 3-2 ATS as favorites; 8-4 to the over in high-scoring games.
- Cincinnati: 0-1 ATS as +6.5 underdogs; 7 of 12 games over the total.
- General: Favorites cover 80% in recent Liberty Bowls; over hits in 6 of 10 with totals over 50.
Historical Betting Results
In Liberty Bowl history, favorites are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games. The over has hit in 7 of the last 10 with totals above 50. AAC teams are 2-1 ATS vs. Big 12 in bowls since 2020.
Game Odds
*Navy Midshipmen – 7
Cincinnati Bearcats 54.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, January 1, 2025
