The 2025 Texas Bowl features the LSU Tigers (SEC) against the Houston Cougars (Big 12) in an intriguing postseason matchup at NRG Stadium. LSU enters with a 7-5 record after an up-and-down SEC season, while Houston brings a 9-3 mark following a strong Big 12 campaign under coach Willie Fritz. This game revives a rare series where LSU holds a 2-1 edge, but Houston aims to leverage home-field advantage in their backyard. Below is a comprehensive breakdown.
Venue Location
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas. This domed NFL venue, home to the Houston Texans, seats over 72,000 and ensures a controlled environment, minimizing weather impacts.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. CT (9:15 p.m. ET). The game will be televised on ESPN.
Note: While the query specifies December 25, all official sources confirm December 27 as the date.
Weather Forecast
As a domed game at NRG Stadium, weather will not affect play. For reference, Houston’s forecast for December 27, 2025, calls for highs around 70°F with a chance of scattered showers, but the enclosed roof eliminates any impact.
Injury Report
Both teams are dealing with significant absences, with LSU hit harder by opt-outs and injuries, potentially forcing backups into key roles.
- LSU Tigers: Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is out (undisclosed injury). Cornerback Mansoor Delane is out (undisclosed). Linebacker Whit Weeks is out (undisclosed). Linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. has opted out. Defensive end Jack Pyburn has opted out. Wide receiver Aaron Anderson has opted out. Center Braelin Moore and wide receiver Nic Anderson are back from earlier issues, but safety AJ Haulcy is uncertain (undisclosed). Backup quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. or Rickie Collins is expected to start.
- Houston Cougars: Wide receiver S. Johnson is out for the season (undisclosed). Running back Rayshon Luke is questionable (undisclosed). Wide receivers Josiah Freeman and Jahlil McClain are expected to play after clearing reports. No major opt-outs reported, but monitor for any late changes in the backfield.
Key Player Matchups
LSU’s depleted roster shifts focus to backups against Houston’s balanced attack, with matchups in the secondary and trenches likely decisive.
- LSU QB Michael Van Buren Jr. (or Rickie Collins) vs. HOU S Camryn Bracha: With Nussmeier out, the backup QB faces Bracha, Houston’s interception leader—could lead to turnovers if pressured.
- HOU QB Donovan Smith vs. LSU LB Davhon Keys: Smith’s dual-threat ability (over 2,500 passing yards) tests Keys, stepping up in a thinned linebacker corps without Weeks and Perkins.
- LSU RB Kaleb Jackson vs. HOU DL Korey Foreman: Jackson must establish the run; Foreman anchors Houston’s line to contain him and force passing situations.
- HOU WR Zechariah Campbell vs. LSU CB Ashton Stamps: Campbell’s speed could exploit Stamps in coverage, especially without Delane.
Other notables: LSU TE Trey’Dez Green vs. HOU secondary for mismatches; HOU RB Re’Shaun Sanford II vs. LSU DL if active.
Recent Team Forms
- LSU Tigers (7-5, 3-5 SEC): Started strong with non-conference wins but struggled in SEC play, losing to top teams like Alabama and Texas A&M. Finished with a 3-5 conference mark, including a win over Arkansas but losses in close games. Recent form: Won 2 of last 4, averaging 28 points in victories but allowing 30+ in defeats.
- Houston Cougars (9-3, 6-3 Big 12): Rebounded under Fritz with wins over Rice and Colorado, splitting Big 12 games but finishing 6-3 in conference. Strong home record (8-4 overall trend), emphasizing defense in victories. Recent form: Won 5 of last 7, holding opponents under 20 points in key wins.
Conference vs Conference
SEC vs. Big 12. The SEC holds a historical edge with a 68-48 all-time record against the Big 12, reflecting superior depth and recruiting. In recent years, the SEC is 10-8 vs. Big 12, with a .555 winning percentage.
Series History
LSU leads the all-time series 2-1. The Tigers won the most recent meetings: 35-34 in 1996 and another in 1999 (though details vary, LSU 2-1 overall). Houston’s lone win came in 1968 (20-7). Games have been close, averaging high scores.
Betting Trends
- LSU: 4-8 ATS overall; strong as underdogs (50.2% confidence to cover). Unders in 4 of last 6 games.
- Houston: 8-4 ATS; 3-3 ATS at home. Favors unders against SEC foes.
- Game-Specific: Sharps on Houston -2.5; public on LSU +2.5. Unders hit in 6 of last 8 Texas Bowls; Big 12 favorites 5-2 ATS vs. SEC.
Historical Betting Results
The Texas Bowl (since 2006) has favorites at 10-8 ATS, with overs in 11 of 18 games. Largest margin: +31 (TCU 34-3 over Louisiana, 2024). Recent: 2024 TCU -8.5 covered (under); 2023 Fresno State failed to cover -3.5 (under). SEC teams like LSU are 2-1 ATS in recent iterations.
Game Odds
LSU Tigers 41.5
Houston Cougars – 2.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 25, 2025
