The 2025 Isleta New Mexico Bowl features the No. 23 North Texas Mean Green (AAC) against the San Diego State Aztecs (Mountain West) in a matchup of two programs capping breakout seasons. North Texas enters at 11-2 after falling in the AAC Championship, while San Diego State sits at 9-3 following a strong conference finish. This game revives a lopsided series dominated by SDSU, with both teams aiming for double-digit wins. Below is a detailed preview.
Venue Location
University Stadium (also known as Dreamstyle Stadium), Albuquerque, New Mexico. This outdoor venue, home to the New Mexico Lobos, seats approximately 39,224 and features a turf surface.
Kickoff is set for 5:45 p.m. ET (3:45 p.m. MT). The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Note: While the query references December 25, all official sources confirm December 27.
Weather Forecast
Expect mild but potentially wet conditions in Albuquerque. Forecasts indicate daytime highs around 54°F with nighttime lows near 39°F, partly cloudy skies, and a 60% chance of precipitation (possible scattered showers). Winds around 5 mph, with low humidity—could affect footing on turf if rain develops.
Injury Report
Both teams face key absences, with SDSU’s quarterback situation particularly impacted.
- North Texas Mean Green: Tight end Connor Vaughn is out with an undisclosed injury. Running backs Jayden Becks, Makenzie McGill II, and Caleb Hawkins are questionable (undisclosed). Defensive lineman W. Smith is questionable (undisclosed). Wide receiver Shaw and defensive lineman Vailea II are out for the season (undisclosed).
- San Diego State Aztecs: Starting quarterback Jayden Denegal is out for the season (shoulder surgery), forcing backup Danny O’Neil into action. Running back Rayshon Luke is questionable (undisclosed). Offensive lineman Napier is out (knee surgery), and defensive end Letuli is uncertain (undisclosed). Defensive lineman Sonny Scott III is out (undisclosed).
Key Player Matchups
With Denegal out, SDSU’s offense shifts to O’Neil, testing NT’s defense, while NT’s high-powered attack (top-20 nationally) challenges SDSU’s secondary.
- NT QB Chandler Morris vs. SDSU S Alonzo McCoy: Morris threw for over 3,500 yards and 30 TDs; McCoy, SDSU’s interception leader, must contain his deep throws.
- SDSU QB Danny O’Neil vs. NT LB Shane Porter: O’Neil steps in as a freshman; Porter’s blitzing (team-high sacks) could disrupt his rhythm.
- NT RB Shane Porter Jr. vs. SDSU DL Korey Foreman: Porter Jr.’s ground game powers NT; Foreman anchors SDSU’s line to stuff runs.
- SDSU WR Jordan Napier vs. NT CB Jayden Hill: Napier’s speed tests Hill in coverage, especially if O’Neil airs it out.
Other notables: NT WR DT Sheffield could exploit mismatches against SDSU CB Chris Johnson.
Recent Team Forms
- North Texas Mean Green (11-2, 7-1 AAC): Started 2-0 with wins over South Alabama and Stephen F. Austin, but hit a mid-season dip. Rebounded with a 7-1 conference mark, including blowouts over Tulsa (52-20) and Temple (45-3), before losing the AAC Championship to Tulane (35-28). Averaged 38 points in wins, emphasizing explosive offense.
- San Diego State Aztecs (9-3, 6-2 MW): Opened 3-0 with victories over Texas A&M-Commerce and Oregon State, splitting MW play with losses to Boise State (28-24) and New Mexico (OT). Finished strong, winning 5 of last 7, holding opponents under 20 points in wins behind a top-50 defense.
Conference vs Conference
AAC vs. Mountain West. The MW holds a slight historical edge (35-32 all-time vs. MAC/AAC-like G5), with stronger recent non-conference showings (47.4% win rate vs. AAC’s 43.6% in crossovers). In 2025, MW teams like Boise State outperformed AAC counterparts in key metrics.
Series History
San Diego State leads 6-1 all-time, with wins in the last six meetings (dating back to 1969). NT’s lone victory was in 1968 (24-21). Most recent: SDSU 44-28 in 1971. Games average moderate scoring, with SDSU’s largest margin at +31.
Betting Trends
- North Texas: 10-3 ATS overall; 8-2 ATS as favorites; 9-4 O/U, trending over in high-scoring games. 3-7 SU vs. MW historically but 8-2 ATS in last 10 bowls.
- San Diego State: 9-3 ATS; 8-2 ATS as underdogs; 3-9 O/U, favoring unders in neutral sites. 8-2 SU in last 10 but 1-4 ATS vs. AAC foes.
- Game-Specific: Public on NT -3.5, sharps on SDSU +3.5; overs hit in 4 of NT’s last 5; MW underdogs 4-2 ATS vs. AAC in bowls.
Historical Betting Results
The New Mexico Bowl (since 2006) has favorites at 10-8 ATS, with overs hitting in 11 of 18 games. Largest margin: +31 (TCU 34-3 over Louisiana, 2024). Recent: 2024 TCU -8.5 covered (under 60.5); 2023 Fresno State failed to cover -3.5 vs. NMSU (under 47.5). MW teams are 5-4 ATS in this bowl; AAC squads 2-1.
Game Odds
North Texas Mean Green – 5.5
San Diego State Aztecs 52.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 25, 2025
