Race Overview
The Sunland Park Derby is scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in Sunland Park, New Mexico. This venue, located near the borders of Texas and Mexico just outside El Paso, features a one-mile dirt oval and is renowned for its winter racing meet, serving as a key stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The track’s dirt surface generally favors speed but can play fair to closers in longer routes if the pace is honest.
The race is Race 9 on a 10-race card loaded with stakes, with a scheduled post time of 4:17 PM MT (6:17 PM ET). It’s open to 3-year-olds, contested over 1 1/16 miles on dirt, with a purse of $500,000. Although it lost its graded status for 2026, it remains a Kentucky Derby qualifier, awarding points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale to the top five finishers. All horses carry 123 lbs (colts/geldings), with one equipment change: Pavlovian adds blinkers.
Expected weather conditions in Sunland Park on February 15 include mostly cloudy skies with a high of 72°F and a low around 42°F. Winds from the southwest at 8-10 mph, humidity around 22%, and no chance of precipitation (0%). The track should be fast and dry, with the overcast conditions potentially aiding horses with stamina by keeping temperatures mild and the surface consistent.
The field of eight features a mix of shippers from California, New York, and beyond, with Express Kid favored off his upset Springboard Mile win. Pace could be contested with several speed types, setting up for tactical runners or closers.
Field Analysis (By Post Position)
Express Kid (CA)
- Post Position: 1
- Morning Line Odds: 3/1
- Jockey: Juan Hernandez (elite California rider with 22% win rate; strong in routes, excels from inside posts).
- Trainer: Justin Evans (leading Southwest trainer ~25% wins; sharp with high-profile acquisitions).
- Breeding: Bodexpress – Sensationalize (by Street Sense). Sire brings stamina from graded wins, dam adds class and dirt affinity.
- Recent Finishes: 5 starts: 3 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds. Last out: 1st in Remington Springboard Mile S. (1m dirt, fast) at Remington Park on 12/15/2025, Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) 91, romping by 6 1/4 lengths as 34-1 longshot. Prior: Modest form in earlier starts. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Morning line favorite drawing the rail, ideal for saving ground in a route. Recent $800,000 purchase and trainer switch signal upside; Springboard upset showed breakout potential with high ESF. Sharp local workouts indicate adaptation; if he controls early, he’s tough. Fast track favors his style; top pick.
Sharons Beach (KY)
- Post Position: 2
- Morning Line Odds: 10/1
- Jockey: John Velazquez (Hall of Famer with 25%+ wins; tactical master in preps).
- Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (consistent ~18% wins; good with developing 3-year-olds).
- Breeding: Omaha Beach – Cosmic Code (by Into Mischief). Sire imparts versatility, dam brings speed and pedigree depth.
- Recent Finishes: 3 starts: 0 wins, 1 second, 1 third. Last out: 2nd in allowance optional claiming (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Santa Anita on 1/23/2026, losing by a neck to a next-out winner. Prior: Little shown in two Virginia starts last summer. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Outsider but with Hall of Fame jockey flying in—a positive sign. Good inside post for stalking; pedigree suggests stretch-out potential to two turns. Improved in 3yo debut; mostly cloudy mild weather could help if pace heats up. Upset candidate for exotics.
Pavlovian (CA)
- Post Position: 3
- Morning Line Odds: 8/1
- Jockey: Edwin Maldonado (aggressive with 18% wins; strong in California routes).
- Trainer: Doug O’Neill (high-volume ~20% wins; excels with Cal-breds stepping up).
- Breeding: Pavel – Mandy’s Grace (by Bellamy Road). Sire offers grit, dam adds route influence.
- Recent Finishes: 8 starts, primarily vs. Cal-breds. Last out: 3rd in California Chrome Cal Cup Derby (1 1/16m dirt, fast) at Santa Anita on 1/15/2026 (approx.). Prior: Slow starts in recent races. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Mid-pack draw suits; blinkers on to address slow breaks—a key change. Class test but Cal Cup bronze shows two-turn ability. O’Neill’s shippers often fire; if he breaks alertly on dry track, he contends. Value for the board.
Forty Twenty (KY)
- Post Position: 4
- Morning Line Odds: 6/1
- Jockey: Orlando Mojica (versatile with 15% wins; good in speed-duel scenarios).
- Trainer: Robertino Diodoro (high-percentage ~20% wins; sharp with maiden breakers).
- Breeding: Candy Ride (ARG) – Gorgeous Ginny (by Take Charge Indy). Sire class for routes, dam power.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 1st in maiden special weight (1m dirt, fast) at Turf Paradise on 1/15/2026, winning by 12 lengths as heavy favorite. Prior: Limited details, but big class jump. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Arizona shipper with tactical speed; post allows gate-to-wire bid. Maiden romp impressive, but faces proven stakes foes. Diodoro’s prep could have him ready; southwest winds minimal impact. Live if uncontested early.
Way Beyond (KY)
- Post Position: 5
- Morning Line Odds: 4/1
- Jockey: Keith Asmussen (rising talent with 16% wins; family Hall of Fame ties).
- Trainer: Steve Asmussen (Hall of Famer ~25% wins; dominates Derby preps).
- Breeding: Twirling Candy – On My Way (by Giant’s Causeway). Sire sweetness with stamina, dam endurance.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 2nd by nose in Riley Allison Derby (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland Park on 1/11/2026 (approx.), leading late but caught. Prior: Solid form. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Third choice with track experience; rematches Daneyko but adds shippers. Versatile post for stalking; Asmussen’s record in these spots huge. If overcast tires frontrunners, his kick prevails; respected connections.
Bricklin (KY)
- Post Position: 6
- Morning Line Odds: 7/2
- Jockey: Cristian Torres (strong finisher with 17% wins; adapts well).
- Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset (~18% wins; good with improving 3-year-olds).
- Breeding: Nyquist – Majestic Vixen (by Majesticperfection). Sire class from Kentucky Derby win, dam verve.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 1st in allowance optional claiming (1m dirt, fast) at Oaklawn Park on 1/10/2026 (approx.), front-running by 3 1/4 lengths—big improvement. Prior: Modest juvenile form. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Withdrawn from Southwest S. to target this; outside post suits pressing. Breakout allowance win signals peaking; Brisset’s confidence shows. Dry conditions favor speed; major threat.
Daneyko (KY)
- Post Position: 7
- Morning Line Odds: 9/2
- Jockey: Alfredo Juarez Jr. (stakes veteran ~20% wins at Sunland; 2017 Sunland Derby winner).
- Trainer: Edward Kereluk (solid local ~15% wins; upsets possible).
- Breeding: Vekoma – Nat Gio (by Gio Ponti). Sire emerging talent, dam international flair.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 1st by nose in Riley Allison Derby (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland Park last month, strong rally over Way Beyond. Prior: Success at Turf Paradise. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Local hero with track affinity; wide post requires ground loss but Juarez knows the oval. Class hike vs. shippers, but hard-trying style fits. If pace melts, he closes; board hitter.
Buntus Foclora (KY)
- Post Position: 8
- Morning Line Odds: 12/1
- Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez (experienced ~15% wins; patient closer).
- Trainer: Amelia Green (~12% wins; develops value plays).
- Breeding: Thousand Words – Orbiston Parva (by Include). Sire wordplay, dam inclusion. (Named after Irish vocabulary book.)
- Recent Finishes: 5 starts: 0 wins. Has mile experience in New York but lacks closing kick. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Longshot from widest draw; New York shipper needs big step up. Pedigree for distance but form modest. Could pass tired foes late; superfecta type at best.
