Race Overview
The San Gabriel Stakes is a Grade III turf stakes race for 3-year-olds and upward, contested over 1 1/8 miles with a $100,000 purse. This event is Race 9 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at approximately 3:16 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.
Santa Anita’s turf course is known for its firm footing in dry conditions, with the rail set at 0 feet for this meet. Following heavy rains earlier in the week that postponed the original opening day, track conditions for the turf are expected to be good to firm by race time, as the surface has had time to dry and be maintained. However, if any residual moisture persists, it could yield slightly, favoring horses with proven soft-ground form.
Expected Weather Conditions
The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, calls for partly cloudy skies with highs around 65°F and lows near 42°F. Winds will be light from the north at 2-8 mph, with humidity around 41% and minimal chance of precipitation (few clouds expected). These mild, dry conditions should promote fair racing, but the cooler temperatures may slightly favor horses with stamina or those accustomed to California winter turf. Attendees should dress in layers for the variable afternoon breeze.
Field Analysis
Eleven horses are entered in this competitive Grade III, blending domestic runners and imports with a mix of running styles. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (described based on form narratives; most recent highlighted), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided. Analysis draws from pedigree, running styles, speed figures (where noted), and trainer notes. Weights range from 121-125 lbs, with allowances for non-winners.
Twirling Point (PP 1, ML 20/1)
Jockey: Mirco Demuro (international veteran with 19% win rate in U.S. stakes; tactical rider).
Trainer: Jonathan Thomas (22% win rate in graded turf; develops closers).
Recent Finishes: Fifth in a 1 3/8-mile turf allowance optional claimer at Del Mar (most recent); fifth in the 1 1/2-mile Colonial Cup Stakes at Colonial Downs prior; won last year’s Jersey Derby.
Analysis: 4-year-old gelding by Twirling Candy out of Kitten’s Point; stalking style, mid-pack early before late move. Strengths: Inside post saves ground; improving Beyers suit the distance. Weaknesses: Struggled in higher-class races; needs pace to close. Prospects: Longshot for exotics; could rally if frontrunners tire.
Mondego (GB) (PP 2, ML 8/1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (top Santa Anita rider with 25% win rate; excels on turf).
Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (20% in stakes; handles imports well).
Recent Finishes: Seventh in the 1 1/2-mile Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) at Del Mar (most recent); fourth in the 1 1/4-mile John Henry Turf Championship (G2) at Santa Anita; fifth in the 1 3/8-mile Del Mar Handicap (G2).
Analysis: 5-year-old gelding by Lope de Vega out of Free Rein; mid-pack stalker. Strengths: Competitive in mid-level stakes; adaptable to firm turf. Weaknesses: Struggled to sustain rallies lately; class drop needed. Prospects: Value contender; could factor with a clean trip.
Endlessly (PP 3, ML 6/1)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli (22% win rate at Santa Anita; aggressive on closers).
Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (as above).
Recent Finishes: Winless in six starts over 18 months; ninth in Kentucky Derby (G1); mixed turf results this year; won El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) as sophomore.
Analysis: 4-year-old colt by Oscar Performance out of Dream Fuhrever; closer style. Strengths: Juvenile turf success; blinkers off may sharpen focus. Weaknesses: Recent struggles; needs to rediscover form. Prospects: Upside if pace sets up; solid for minors.
Stay Hot (PP 4, ML 4/1)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite with 26% win rate; big-race specialist).
Trainer: Peter Eurton (18% in turf routes; consistent barn).
Recent Finishes: Sixth in the 1 1/16-mile Seabiscuit Handicap (G2) at Del Mar (most recent); second in John Henry Turf Championship (G2) and Del Mar Handicap (G2); won Texas Turf Classic.
Analysis: 4-year-old colt by Summer Front out of Etsu; stalker-closer. Strengths: Consistent in graded turf; benefits from hot pace. Weaknesses: Wins sparingly; mid-draw flexible but needs luck. Prospects: Strong win threat; pace setup favors him.
St Anthony (PP 5, ML 5/1)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (22% win rate; local leader).
Trainer: Neil Drysdale (veteran with 15% in stakes; patient developer).
Recent Finishes: Well-traveled in 28-race career; versatile but infrequent winner.
Analysis: 6-year-old gelding by Noble Mission out of Amnesia; mid-pack stalker. Strengths: Adaptable style; playable in exotics. Weaknesses: Distance/class questions; outer horses challenge. Prospects: Top contender; consistency in mix.
Nesso’s Lastharrah (PP 6, ML 30/1)
Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado (14% win rate; aggressive early).
Trainer: Peter Eurton (as above).
Recent Finishes: Fifth in Eddie D Stakes (stakes debut); fifth in Lure Stakes at Santa Anita.
Analysis: 4-year-old colt by Sharp Azteca out of Nesso; front-runner/presser. Strengths: Early speed; could wire if loose. Weaknesses: Stakes unproven; likely fades in deep field. Prospects: Longshot for minor if uncontested.
Suchet (FR) (PP 7, ML 6/1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (23% win rate; strong closer).
Trainer: John W. Sadler (20% in stakes; import specialist).
Recent Finishes: Allowance win at Del Mar seven weeks ago; promise in four U.S. starts.
Analysis: 4-year-old gelding by Cloth of Stars out of Decize; mid-pack closer. Strengths: Strong finish on turf; post allows flexibility. Weaknesses: Needs honest pace; second-tier form. Prospects: Live win candidate in open race.
Astronomer (PP 8, ML 9/2)
Jockey: Antonio Fresu (18% win rate; rising star).
Trainer: Simon Callaghan (high-percentage with 19% in turf; consistent).
Recent Finishes: Winless in 2025 but solid in graded efforts.
Analysis: 6-year-old gelding by Air Force Blue out of Qaraaba; stalker near pace. Strengths: Suited to distance; favorite for reason. Weaknesses: No recent wins; needs to pounce. Prospects: Top pick; logical in balanced field.
Cabo Spirit (PP 9, ML 8/1)
Jockey: Mike E. Smith (Hall of Famer with 20% win rate; tactical).
Trainer: George Papaprodromou (16% off layoffs; value barn).
Recent Finishes: Gate-to-wire wins like American Stakes in April; second off layoff.
Analysis: 6-year-old gelding by Pioneerof the Nile out of Fancy Day; frontrunner. Strengths: Tough with easy lead; jockey knows course. Weaknesses: Post requires push; vulnerable if pressed. Prospects: Dangerous if dictates terms.
Flashiest (PP 10, ML 20/1)
Jockey: Armando Ayuso (journeyman with 12% win rate; handles longshots).
Trainer: Leonard Powell (15% with imports; steady).
Recent Finishes: Hit board in stakes before; steady grinder.
Analysis: 7-year-old gelding by Mizzen Mast out of Nothing to Wear; mid-pack closer. Strengths: Exotic potential if favorites falter. Weaknesses: Outer post risks wide trip; underdog. Prospects: Bomber for supers.
Nineeleventurbo (PP 11, ML 10/1)
Jockey: Hector I. Berrios (up-and-comer with 14% win rate; hustles early).
Trainer: Neil Drysdale (as above).
Recent Finishes: Winless since 2023; placed in graded spots.
Analysis: 8-year-old gelding by More Than Ready out of Rosalie Road; front-runner/presser. Strengths: Graded experience; capable on day. Weaknesses: Tough post; needs to clear early. Prospects: Mid-odds value; could factor if sits close.
