Horse Race Preview: Race 9 – Commodore Overnight Stakes at Oaklawn Park

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Venue and Race Overview

Oaklawn Park is located at 2705 Central Ave, Hot Springs, AR 71901. The Commodore Overnight Stakes, a $135,000 overnight stakes race for 4-year-olds and upward who have never won a sweepstakes other than state-bred, is scheduled for Saturday, January 3, 2026, with a post time of 3:55 PM CT. This six-furlong dirt sprint is contested on Oaklawn’s main dirt track, which often favors horses with tactical speed in shorter races, though a fair surface can reward strong finishers if the early pace is brisk.

Expected Weather and Track Conditions

Forecasts for Hot Springs, AR, on January 3, 2026, indicate sunny and cold conditions with a high of 52°F and a low of 41°F. Winds will be light at around 5 mph, with humidity at 63% and no precipitation expected. These dry, chilly conditions should result in a fast dirt track, playing fair without significant biases, though the cold could favor horses with proven winter form.

Field Analysis

This competitive field of 11 older males includes graded stakes-placed runners like Echo Again (G2-placed) and Bourbon Bash (G1-placed earlier in career), alongside consistent allowance types like Concrete Glory (multiple stakes attempts). Concrete Glory brings the highest recent speed figures (around 105+), while Navy Seal’s experience (47 starts) adds depth. The sprint distance could see early contention from Spankster or Mischievous M, setting up stalkers like Echo Again. Below is a detailed breakdown, including post position, jockey, trainer, morning line odds, weight, recent finishes (with speed ratings where available), and analysis.

PostHorse NameJockeyTrainerMorning Line OddsWeightRecent FinishesAnalysis
1ThoughtthatcountsCristian A. TorresDavid Jacobson10-1124 lbs11/15/25: 4th (Aqueduct, 6f allowance, speed rating 92); 10/20/25: 2nd (Belmont, 7f claimer, speed rating 95).This Sky Mesa gelding has shown consistency in mid-level races, rallying for placings. Trainer Jacobson (stakes specialist) and jockey Torres (Oaklawn winner) suit the inside draw for a ground-saving trip; value if pace collapses. Owner: Jacobson, D. Earnings: ~$150,000.
2Second I DAlfredo Triana, Jr.Robert A. Young5-1117 lbs12/10/25: 3rd (Fair Grounds, 5.5f allowance, speed rating 98); 11/5/25: 1st (Fair Grounds, 6f claimer, speed rating 100).Maclean’s Music colt wired a claimer last out and held for show in allowance. Trainer Young excels with sprinters, and Triana Jr. adds aggression; lighter weight helps. Solid contender. Owner: Gentry Farms. Earnings: ~$200,000.
3Echo AgainRicardo Santana, Jr.Norm W. Casse5/2124 lbs12/1/25: 2nd (Aqueduct, 6f allowance, speed rating 102); 11/10/25: 3rd (Churchill, 7f stakes, speed rating 104); Lifetime: 22 starts, 4-4-5, $428,516.Gun Runner colt has G2-placing (Springboard Mile) and recent strong efforts. Trainer Casse (high win rate) and jockey Santana Jr. (Oaklawn leader) make him a top threat; tactical speed suits. Owner: Cardinal Hill Racing et al. Earnings: $428,516.
4RexfordRamon A. VazquezGreg Compton20-1117 lbs12/5/25: 5th (Oaklawn, 6f allowance, speed rating 85); 11/1/25: 4th (Churchill, 5.5f claimer, speed rating 88).Tapiture gelding has modest form but lighter weight; Trainer Compton develops locals, Vazquez knows track. Longshot for exotics. Owner: Perry, S. Earnings: ~$100,000.
5Concrete GloryLuis SaezSaffie A. Joseph, Jr.9/5124 lbs11/10/25: 1st (Gulfstream, 6f allowance, speed rating 105); 10/15/25: 2nd (Gulfstream, 7f stakes, speed rating 103); Lifetime: 38 starts, 16-6-2, $459,734.Bodemeister gelding is battle-tested with recent wins; Trainer Joseph Jr. (hot form) and Saez (elite) position him as favorite. Versatile. Owner: Big Frank Stable. Earnings: $459,734.
6Bourbon BashJoel RosarioSteven M. Asmussen12-1117 lbs12/15/25: 4th (Fair Grounds, 6f allowance, speed rating 96); 11/20/25: 2nd (Churchill, 5.5f stakes, speed rating 98); Lifetime: 23 starts, 2-8-3, $511,294.City of Light colt has G1-placing (Hopeful); Trainer Asmussen (Hall of Famer) and Rosario add class. Closing kick if pace hot. Owner: BC Stables LLC. Earnings: $511,294.
7Banjo ChrisRafael BejaranoTroy S. Wismer12-1119 lbs11/30/25: 5th (Churchill, 1m allowance, speed rating 90); 10/25/25: 3rd (Keeneland, 6f claimer, speed rating 92).Constitution gelding rallied in recent but needs sprint focus; Trainer Wismer and Bejarano (veteran) suit. Upside value. Owner: Novogratz Racing Stables. Earnings: ~$180,000.
8Mischievous MTyler W. BaconTimothy E. Martin20-1124 lbs12/20/25: 6th (Oaklawn, 6f allowance, speed rating 82); 11/15/25: 4th (Fair Grounds, 5.5f claimer, speed rating 85).Runhappy gelding has stakes tries but lower figures; Trainer Martin and Bacon target spots. Pace factor but longshot. Owner: Cloud Nine Racing Stable LLC. Earnings: ~$120,000.
9SpanksterFrancisco ArrietaS. Jade Cunningham20-1117 lbs12/10/25: 7th (Fair Grounds, 6f allowance, speed rating 80); 11/5/25: 5th (Churchill, 7f claimer, speed rating 83).Mastery colt shows speed but fades; Trainer Cunningham and Arrieta aggressive. Exotic filler. Owners: Cunningham, S. Jade and Westemeir, Terry. Earnings: ~$90,000.
10Lucius VerusEmmanuel EsquivelAaron M. West30-1117 lbs11/25/25: 8th (Oaklawn, 6f claimer, speed rating 75); 10/30/25: 6th (Remington, 5.5f allowance, speed rating 78).Violence gelding lightly raced but outclassed; Trainer West and Esquivel try. Longshot. Owners: Nirvana Farm, LLC and Bow River Ranch, LLC. Earnings: ~$60,000.
11Navy SealJavier CastellanoNancy S. Knott10-1117 lbs12/1/25: 3rd (Aqueduct, 6f allowance, speed rating 95); 11/10/25: 2nd (Belmont, 7f stakes, speed rating 97); Lifetime: 47 starts, 8-10-8, $672,454.Midshipman gelding is ultra-consistent with stakes form; Trainer Knott and Castellano (Hall of Famer) add punch. Outer post for rally; value. Owner: Lighthouse Racing LLC. Earnings: $672,454.