Venue Location: Oaklawn Park, located at 2705 Central Avenue in Hot Springs, Arkansas. This historic track is renowned for its fast dirt surface and hosts the Arkansas Derby Day card as a key prep for the Triple Crown trail and stakes season.
Scheduled Post Time: Race 9, the $135,000 American Pharoah Overnight Stakes (listed stakes, for 4-year-olds and upward that have not won a sweepstakes in 2025-2026; weights 124 lbs with allowances). Post time is 4:02 PM Central Time. The race is contested at 1 1/16 miles on the main dirt track. Wagering includes Daily Double, Exacta, 50-cent Trifecta, 10-cent Superfecta, $1 Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11), and $1 Classix Pick 6.
Expected Weather Conditions: Daytime highs in the mid-60s°F, lows around 40-45°F, with partly cloudy skies and only a low chance of showers. Winds light. These conditions should produce a fast dirt track with no weather-related biases expected. Oaklawn’s main track typically plays fair and speed-favoring under dry conditions.
Track Conditions: Expected fast dirt. No rain is anticipated in the forecast window, and recent racing at Oaklawn has seen consistent fast times on the main track.
Field Overview: This overnight stakes draws a competitive field of older horses looking for black-type glory on Arkansas Derby Day. Favorites include proven allowance/stakes performers with strong recent Oaklawn form. The race favors horses with tactical speed and stamina for the 1 1/16-mile trip. Morning line odds (ML) are provided below.
Here is the full post-position analysis, including horse details, recent finishes (last 4–6 races with speed figures where available), trainer/jockey notes, and race-specific commentary:
PP 1 – Winnemac Avenue (6g, Tapwrit – Queen of the Rings, by Empire Maker)
Trainer: James P. DiVito (solid Midwestern shipper with a high strike rate in allowance company; knows how to place horses for peak efforts).
Jockey: Luis Saez (elite rider, strong at Oaklawn, excellent gate-to-wire or stalking style).
ML: 7/2
Recent Finishes: 2nd (120) OP 1 1/16M AlwOC 2/7/26 (fast dirt); 2nd (116) OP 1 1/16M ALW 1/4/26; 5th (112) KEE 1 1/16M AOC 10/16/25; 3rd (109) PRM 1M AOC 8/10/25; 2nd (116) OP 1 1/16M AOC 4/24/25.
Analysis: Consistent closer/stalker with multiple Oaklawn placings and a 120 speed figure that towers over most of this field. Post 1 is ideal for saving ground early. DiVito-Saez combo is dangerous; expect him to stalk and pounce late. Contender.
PP 2 – Tonka Warrior (7g, Cupid – Gottah Penny, by Stravinsky)
Trainer: McLean Robertson (patient with older geldings; successful at shipping to Oaklawn).
Jockey: Abel Cedillo (reliable mid-pack rider).
ML: 15/1
Recent Finishes: 3rd (110) CBY 1M Turf Brooks Fields Mile S. 6/28/25; 2nd (123) CBY 1M Turf AOC 6/1/25; 5th (107) OP 1 1/16M AOC 4/24/25; 5th (104) OP 1 1/16M AOC 3/14/25; 12th (99) OP Razorback H. (G3) 2/23/25.
Analysis: Turf specialist with some dirt placings, but recent Oaklawn efforts show regression. Long layoff since summer 2025; 15/1 is fair value only if the track is speed-biased. Likely needs a perfect trip from post 2 but is a longshot.
PP 3 – Echo Again (6g, Gun Runner – Teardrop, by Tapit)
Trainer: Norm W. Casse (rising star, excellent with older horses; family pedigree helps).
Jockey: Cristian A. Torres (young talent with growing Oaklawn success).
ML: 12/1
Recent Finishes: 1st (117) CD 6F AOC (muddy) 11/20/25; 7th (69) KEE 7F AOC 10/4/25; 2nd (124) SAR 1M AOC 8/31/25; 2nd (129) SAR 7F AOC 8/2/25; 3rd (127) SAR 7F AOC 6/7/25.
Analysis: High-class Gun Runner gelding with explosive speed figures (multiple 120+). Versatile on dirt; the 6-furlong win shows closing kick. Post 3 is fine. Could improve off the layoff for Casse; live longshot at 12/1.
PP 4 – Publisher (4c, American Pharoah – Indian Pride, by Proud Citizen)
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Famer, perennial Oaklawn king with unmatched win rate here).
Jockey: Erik Asmussen (Steve’s son; rising star with great hands).
ML: 3/1
Recent Finishes: 1st (108) OP 1 1/16M ALW 3/7/26; 1st (111) OP 1 1/16M MSW (muddy) 2/15/26; 2nd (122) OP 1M MSW 12/26/25; 2nd (117) CD 1 1/16M MSW (muddy) 11/20/25; 4th (111) RP Oklahoma Derby (G3) 9/28/25.
Analysis: Lightly raced and improving rapidly for Asmussen. Two straight Oaklawn wins (including a recent allowance score) plus strong maiden placings. The namesake of the race carries 124 lbs but has the pedigree and momentum. Inside post helps; major player.
PP 5 – Woodcourt (5h, Ransom the Moon – Warrioress, by Warrior’s Reward)
Trainer: Cipriano Contreras (local Oaklawn specialist who excels with his own stock).
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel (steady local rider).
ML: 15/1
Recent Finishes: 5th (104) OP Razorback H. (G3) 2/28/26; 2nd (106) OP Fifth Season (LS) 2/5/26; 4th (111) OP 1 1/16M ALW 1/4/26; 4th (114) OP Tinsel (LS) 12/20/25.
Analysis: Honest local who hits the board often at Oaklawn but rarely wins against stakes company. Recent graded efforts show he’s competitive but a notch below the top contenders. Post 5 is neutral; needs pace meltdown to win at 15/1.
PP 6 – Timeout (5h, Curlin – Lull, by War Front)
Trainer: William I. Mott (Hall of Famer; master at stretching horses out).
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche (veteran with big-race experience).
ML: 9/2
Recent Finishes: 6th (72) SAR Belmont Gold Cup (G3) 6/6/25 (long turf); 2nd (105) CD Isaac Murphy Marathon (LS) 4/30/25; 1st (108) GP 1M Dirt AOC 1/16/25; 1st (102) TAM 1 1/16M Turf AOC 2/15/25.
Analysis: Stamina-bred Curlin colt with a win over this distance on dirt earlier in 2025. Mott rarely misses with these types, but the recent turf/ marathon efforts suggest he may need the race. Post 6 allows mid-pack trip; solid exotics player at 9/2.
PP 7 – Prince of Power (5g, Runhappy – Demigoddess, by First Dude)
Trainer: Jesus Esquivel (smaller barn but capable with synthetics/dirt routers).
Jockey: Javier Padron-Barcenas (journeyman rider).
ML: 10/1
Recent Finishes: 4th (107) TP 1M Synth AOC 3/11/26; 4th (113) TP Dust Commander S. 2/14/26; 1st (112) TP 1 1/16M Synth AOC 12/26/25; 2nd (114) CD 1 1/16M AOC 11/21/25.
Analysis: Consistent synthetics performer switching back to dirt. Recent Churchill placing is encouraging, but class and surface questions remain. Post 7 is a bit wide; needs a hot pace to close at 10/1.
PP 8 – Classic Car Wash (6g, Noble Bird – East Lake Classic, by Orientate)
Trainer: Mark E. Casse (Hall of Famer; elite with older geldings and stakes shippers).
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. (perennial leading rider; the best in the country).
ML: 2/1
Recent Finishes: 3rd (117) OP 1M AOC 2/28/26; 3rd (118) OP 1 1/16M AOC 3/14/25; 1st (110) OP 1M AOC 1/17/25; 5th/6th in CD allowance company 2025.
Analysis: The morning-line favorite brings the highest recent speed figure (117) and Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons. Multiple Oaklawn wins/placings; Casse has him tuned up perfectly. Wide post is the only knock, but his tactical speed should overcome it. Top selection.
Overall Preview and Wagering Thoughts: Classic Car Wash (PP 8) looks like the horse to beat with elite connections and sharp recent form. Publisher (PP 4) is the logical closer and Asmussen’s top threat. Winnemac Avenue (PP 1) offers the best value underneath with Saez and a rail post. Use Echo Again and Timeout in exotics for upside.
