Race Overview
The Grade III Palos Verdes Stakes is scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. This iconic venue, nestled at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains about 14 miles northeast of downtown Los Angeles, features a one-mile dirt oval and a downhill turf course, but this race will be run on the main dirt track. Known as “The Great Race Place,” Santa Anita has hosted legendary events like the Breeders’ Cup and is renowned for its fast dirt surface that favors speed in sprints.
The race is Race 8 on a nine-race card, with a scheduled post time of 4:00 PM PT (7:00 PM ET). It’s open to 4-year-olds and up, contested over 6 furlongs on dirt, with a purse of $100,000. This sprint stakes often attracts a mix of California-based speedsters and graded performers looking to kick off their seasons strongly. All horses carry weights between 120-124 lbs, with no notable equipment changes mentioned in available data.
Expected weather conditions in Arcadia on February 15, based on forecasts, include partly cloudy skies turning overcast in the afternoon, with a high of 67°F and a low around 54°F. Winds from the WSW at 5-10 mph, humidity around 45-50%, and a low chance of precipitation (under 20%). The track should be fast and dry, but any unexpected light rain could lead to a good surface, potentially benefiting horses with wet-track form.
The field of six features a blend of proven stakes winners and up-and-comers, with speed likely to dominate in this compact group. Morning line odds reflect a competitive affair, with Man O Rose favored off his win streak.
Field Analysis (By Post Position)
- Man O Rose (KY)
- Post Position: 1
- Morning Line Odds: 8/5
- Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo (seasoned rider with a 18% win rate in sprints at Santa Anita; excels in gate-to-wire tactics, strong from inside posts).
- Trainer: Jeff Mullins (top California conditioner with ~20% win rate; specializes in sprinters and has a knack for keeping horses on win streaks).
- Breeding: Stanford – Kathleen Rose (by Not For Love). Sire Stanford imparts blazing early speed from his own sprint success, while the dam adds durability. California-bred but Kentucky-registered.
- Recent Finishes: On a hot streak with four straight wins. Last out: 1st in the Don Valpredo California Cup Sprint (6f dirt, fast) at Santa Anita on 1/17/2026, Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) 119, romping by 9 lengths. Before that: 1st in California Flag H. (6.5f turf) at SA on 10/11/2025, ESF 113; 1st in E.B. Johnston S. (6f dirt) at Los Alamitos on 9/13/2025, ESF 111; 1st in The Chosen Vron Stakes (6f dirt) at Del Mar on 11/8/2025. Track conditions in recent races: fast dirt and firm turf.
- Analysis: The rail draw suits his front-running style perfectly, allowing him to break sharp and control the pace. As the morning line favorite, he’s the one to beat with proven class in California-restricted stakes. His speed figures are consistently high (110+), and he thrives at 6f. If the track stays fast, expect him to wire the field; even on a good surface, his form holds. Top pick for the win, but short price limits value.
- Pilot Commander (KY)
- Post Position: 2
- Morning Line Odds: 9/5
- Jockey: Florent Geroux (elite rider with 22% win rate; tactical and strong finisher, especially in graded sprints).
- Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Fame trainer with 25%+ win rate at Santa Anita; master at preparing horses for big spots, multiple Palos Verdes winners).
- Breeding: Justify – Rebuke (by Candy Ride). Triple Crown winner Justify brings power and versatility, with the dam adding sprint speed.
- Recent Finishes: Strong graded performer. Last out: Implied win or strong showing in a Santa Anita allowance on 1/16/2026 (details sparse, but building form). Prior: Won the San Carlos S. (G3, 7f dirt, fast) at Santa Anita on 3/29/2025; 4th in the Malibu S. (G1, 7f dirt, fast) at SA on 12/26/2024. ESFs around 105-110 in stakes. Track conditions: fast dirt.
- Analysis: Excellent inside post for stalking the pace set by #1. Baffert’s barn is firing, and Geroux’s closing kick could exploit any early duel. Pedigree suggests he handles 6f well, though his best may be at 7f. Second choice on the line, he’s a major threat if Man O Rose falters. Prefers fast tracks; light winds won’t affect him. Logical for exactas.
- Modus Bestia (MD)
- Post Position: 3
- Morning Line Odds: 5/1
- Jockey: Antonio Fresu (rising star with 16% wins; patient rider who saves ground effectively).
- Trainer: Richard Baltas (solid 15% win rate; good with developing young sprinters from allowance ranks).
- Breeding: Maclean’s Music – Make Amends (by Repent). Sire Maclean’s Music offers explosive speed, dam contributes grit.
- Recent Finishes: Improving but stepped up tough last out. Last: 7th in Malibu S. (G1, 7f dirt, fast) at SA on 12/28/2025. Before: 1st in allowance optional claiming (6f dirt, fast) at Del Mar on 11/1/2025, ESF 103; 1st in maiden special weight (6f dirt, fast) at DMR on 9/7/2025, ESF 99. Earlier maidens and claims. Track conditions: fast dirt.
- Analysis: Mid-pack draw allows tactical options. At 5/1, he’s intriguing value dropping from G1 company where he was outclassed but showed speed. Recent wins indicate upside at this distance, and Baltas has him peaking. Pedigree favors dry, fast tracks; overcast conditions could suit if pace heats up. Exotic contender, especially if improving.
- Smooth Cruisein (FL)
- Post Position: 4
- Morning Line Odds: 12/1
- Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira (veteran with 14% wins; aggressive with longshots, good in routes but adapts to sprints).
- Trainer: Karen Headley (consistent 12% win rate; excels with Florida-breds in California circuits).
- Breeding: Girvin – Smooth Cookie (by Malibu Moon). Girvin provides stamina and wet-track affinity, dam adds sprint class.
- Recent Finishes: Consistent but winless in recent stakes. Last: 5th in Malibu S. (G1, 7f dirt, fast) at SA on 12/28/2025. Before: 2nd in Shared Belief S. (1m dirt, fast) at DMR on 8/31/2025; 2nd in Bob Hope S. (G3) in 2024; last win in allowance optional claiming (6f dirt, sloppy) at SA on 4/26/2025. Also 2nds in Rebel G2 and Pat Day Mile. Track conditions: Mix of fast and sloppy dirt.
- Analysis: Outside the speed, he’ll need to stalk effectively. At 12/1, he’s a live longshot with proven graded placings, though wins are sparse lately. Pedigree shines on off tracks—if any moisture from overcast skies, he moves up. Headley’s patient approach could yield a board hit in exotics.
- Listenupshance (KY)
- Post Position: 5
- Morning Line Odds: 15/1
- Jockey: Tyler Baze (experienced with 13% wins; versatile, often springs upsets with closers).
- Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (high-volume trainer with 18% wins; strong in sprints, develops claimers into stakes threats).
- Breeding: Shancelot – Listenupnow (by Elusive Quality). Shancelot imparts raw speed, dam adds tactical edge.
- Recent Finishes: Stepping up from lower levels. Last: Placement in claiming (6f dirt, fast) at DMR on 11/23/2025 (finish not detailed, but competitive). Before: Win in race 3 (likely allowance, 6f dirt, fast) at DMR on 7/24/2025; 4/8 in maiden claiming at Gulfstream on 6/14/2025; other maidens/claims with mixed results (e.g., 1st in some, 6/8 in others). ESFs around 90-95. Track conditions: fast dirt.
- Analysis: Wide post may force a closing trip, suiting Baze’s style. At 15/1, he’s the outsider but O’Neill’s barn can surprise. Recent form shows progress from claims to allowances, but this is a class test. Prefers fast tracks; mild weather helps. Best for underneath in tris/superfectas.
- Madaket Road (KY)
- Post Position: 6
- Morning Line Odds: 7/2
- Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (talented with 17% wins; strong closer, adapts well from outside).
- Trainer: Bob Baffert (see above; dual entry with #2, often dominates sprints).
- Breeding: Quality Road – Frolic’s Dream (by Smoke Glacken). Quality Road offers class and stamina, dam was a sprint stakes winner.
- Recent Finishes: Graded placer seeking first stakes win. Last year: 2nd in three graded stakes, incl Woody Stephens S. (G1, 7f dirt, fast); also G1-placed at longer distances. Strong recent works at SA (e.g., bullet 4f in :47). No specific 2026 starts noted, but building form. ESFs 100-105. Track conditions: fast dirt.
- Analysis: Widest draw requires a clean break, but Kimura can rally. At 7/2, he’s respected for Baffert’s prowess and pedigree. Consistent runner-up in graded company suggests he’s due; distance drop to 6f could spark a breakthrough. Handles any conditions; overcast won’t bother. Key rival to the favorite, strong for win/place.
