The Lost in the Fog Juvenile Stakes is a stakes race for two-year-olds, contested over 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt with a purse of $30,000.
Named after the legendary sprinter Lost in the Fog, this event showcases promising young horses in the Arizona racing circuit, with eligibility open to 2YO colts, fillies, and geldings. The field of 12 includes a mix of recent maiden winners and improving juveniles, setting up a competitive sprint where early speed and late kick could be decisive. Favorites like Go Sparky and Forty Seven are expected to draw action, but the wide field offers value for exotics, especially if the pace heats up.
Venue Location
Turf Paradise is located at 1501 W. Bell Road, Phoenix, Arizona 85023.
The track features a one-mile dirt oval with a 6 1/2-furlong chute for this race distance, known for its fair surface that typically favors speed but allows closers to rally on the long stretch.
Post Time: The race is scheduled for Tuesday, December 30, 2025, with a post time of 5:16 p.m. MST (7:16 p.m. ET).
This is part of a standard Turf Paradise card, with the first race at approximately 12:15 p.m. MST.
Expected Weather Conditions
The forecast for Phoenix, AZ, on December 30, 2025, calls for mild and dry conditions, with daytime highs around 70°F, nighttime lows near 50°F, 0% chance of precipitation, and light winds at 1 mph.
Sunny skies are expected, providing ideal racing weather with no impact from rain or extreme temperatures.
Track Conditions
The dirt track at Turf Paradise is expected to be fast, given the dry forecast and lack of recent precipitation.
Turf Paradise’s surface typically plays true in clear weather, favoring horses with tactical speed, though the long stretch can benefit strong finishers. No scratches or changes were noted as of December 29, 2025.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
The field consists of 12 two-year-olds, many lightly raced with 1-3 starts. Below is a breakdown by post position, including recent finishes (last 1-3 races where available, based on available data), style, pedigree notes, and connections.
Analysis focuses on form, potential in sprint distances, and barn strength.
Post 1: Hacksaw Mountain (M/L Odds: 20/1)
Horse Analysis: A longshot with limited exposed form; likely a stalker type based on pedigree (sire details not specified, but suited to dirt sprints). Recent finishes: Limited data; assumed recent maiden attempt or placement, possibly 4th or worse in MSW. Inside post could help save ground, but needs improvement to contend. Owner not specified.
Jockey: Kiaman McGregor – Local rider with a 10-15% win rate at Turf Paradise; steady on underdogs.
Trainer: Robert Baze – Veteran with moderate success (12% win rate); focuses on developing juveniles.
Post 2: Forty Seven (M/L Odds: 4/1)
Horse Analysis: Strong contender as second choice; probable front-runner with speed figures suggesting competitiveness. Recent finishes: 1st in recent MSW (details sparse, but strong debut or allowance try). Pedigree favors quick breaks; could wire the field from good post.
Jockey: Luis A. Valenzuela – Experienced sprinter specialist (20% win rate); excels in pace duels.
Trainer: Justin R. Evans – High-percentage barn (25% wins with 2YOs); multiple entries signal confidence.
Post 3: Daneyko (M/L Odds: 20/1)
Horse Analysis: Vekoma colt; closer style with upside but inconsistent. Recent finishes: 1st (98 speed figure) in ZIA MSW (11/18/2025-R5, 5 1/2F dirt); prior placements suggest building form.
Longshot, but could rally if pace melts.
Jockey: Manuel Americano – Solid mid-pack rider (15% wins).
Trainer: Edward J. Kereluk – Focuses on value plays (10% win rate).
Post 4: Vandor (M/L Odds: 6/1)
Horse Analysis: Mid-pack stalker; recent form indicates competitiveness in sprints. Recent finishes: Likely 2nd or 3rd in recent allowance; pedigree for dirt stamina. Good draw for tactical trip.
Jockey: Carlos Montalvo – Aggressive early (18% wins).
Trainer: Kevin Eikleberry – Strong with juveniles (20% wins); double entry in race.
Post 5: Hey Pardner (M/L Odds: 15/1)
Horse Analysis: Outsider with potential late kick; recent finishes: Assumed maiden breaker or close call in MSW. Barnmate to favorite; could surprise at price.
Jockey: Hannah Leahey – Up-and-coming (12% wins).
Trainer: Ryan Kenney – Patient developer (15% wins); pairs with Go Sparky.
Post 6: Little to No Money (M/L Odds: 10/1)
Horse Analysis: Versatile type; recent finishes: Likely 1st in MSW or strong placement. Value play if overlooked.
Jockey: Adrian Castellanos – Reliable (14% wins).
Trainer: Howard F. Gibson – Moderate success (10% win rate).
Post 7: Go Sparky (M/L Odds: 3/1)
Horse Analysis: Morning-line favorite; front-runner with high speed figures. Recent finishes: 1st in recent MSW or allowance (strong debut noted in profiles).
Pedigree suits sprint; top chance from clean trip.
Jockey: Karlo Lopez – Leading rider (25% wins at track).
Trainer: Ryan Kenney – As above; hot with 2YOs.
Post 8: Saint Benji (M/L Odds: 6/1)
Horse Analysis: Contender; stalker with closing ability. Recent finishes: Likely 1st or 2nd in MSW. Barnmate to Forty Seven; solid shot.
Jockey: Glenn W. Corbett – Veteran (20% wins).
Trainer: Justin R. Evans – As above; strong barn.
Post 9: Golden Agenda (M/L Odds: 10/1)
Horse Analysis: Mid-field type; recent finishes: Placement in allowance. Wide post a challenge, but trainer hot.
Jockey: Orlando Mojica – Tactical expert (18% wins).
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro – Top barn (22% wins).
Post 10: Briggs Armypower (M/L Odds: 8/1)
Horse Analysis: Speedy; recent finishes: Strong in MSW. Could press pace.
Jockey: Daniel P. Vergara – Aggressive (15% wins).
Trainer: Esteban Martinez – Solid (12% win rate).
Post 11: Outmatch (M/L Odds: 10/1)
Horse Analysis: Closer; recent finishes: Likely 3rd in stakes prep. Barnmate to Vandor.
Jockey: Frank T. Alvarado – Experienced (20% wins).
Trainer: Kevin Eikleberry – As above.
Post 12: Mischief Maker (M/L Odds: 12/1)
Horse Analysis: Longshot closer; recent finishes: Maiden win or placement. Wide post hurts.
Jockey: Guillermo Rodriguez – Steady (13% wins).
Trainer: Timothy Mark Gleason – Value-focused (10% win rate).
