Venue and Race Overview
Turfway Park is located at 7500 Turfway Road in Florence, Kentucky, just south of Cincinnati. This historic racetrack, known for its all-weather synthetic surface (Tapeta), hosts winter racing and is a key stop on the Kentucky circuit. The Likely Exchange Stakes, presented by Claiborne Farm, is Race 8 on the card, scheduled for post time of 9:25 PM ET. This stakes race is restricted to fillies and mares aged 4 and up, contested over 1 mile on the synthetic track. The purse is $125,000, attracting a competitive field of 8 entrants. The synthetic surface at Turfway is generally fair and consistent, draining well and maintaining “fast” conditions even in inclement weather. Track conditions are expected to be fast, as the all-weather material handles moisture effectively.
Expected Weather Conditions
The forecast for Florence, KY, on January 10 calls for a mild winter day by regional standards, with daytime highs around 50°F (10°C) and evening lows dipping to 39°F (4°C). Conditions will be overcast with a chance of rain late in the evening, potentially after the race concludes. Winds will be light (5-10 mph from the south-southeast), and humidity around 75%. While rain could make the air feel cooler, it shouldn’t impact the synthetic track significantly. Bundle up if attending, as the open-air venue can feel chilly at night.
Field Analysis
This race features a mix of proven synthetic specialists, turf-to-synth crossovers, and horses stepping up from allowance company. The synthetic surface rewards versatile runners with good tactical speed, and recent form at Turfway or similar all-weather tracks (e.g., Woodbine) is a plus. Weights are level at 122 lbs for most, with no notable equipment changes reported. Morning line odds are estimated based on recent speed figures (Beyer-style), form, and connections, as official lines were not available at press time. I’ll note each horse’s starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes, and key analysis, including jockey and trainer insights.
Velvet Devil (PP 1)
Jockey: Adam Beschizza (experienced on synthetic; 18% win rate at Turfway)
Trainer: Michael A. Tomlinson (solid 15% win rate with stakes runners)
Breeding: Kantharos x Tizlegal (by Tiznow) – Bred for speed and stamina.
Recent Finishes:
11/24/25: 2nd, Mahoning Valley, Cheryl S. White Memorial S. (6f, dirt), speed figure 124.
10/19/25: 1st, Keeneland ALW (5.5f, dirt), speed figure 104.
9/19/25: 1st, Churchill Downs ALW (6f, dirt), speed figure 102.
8/4/25: 4th, Ellis Park ALW (6.5f, dirt), speed figure 108.
4/24/25: 1st, Keeneland MSW (6f, dirt), speed figure 106.
Analysis: This 4-year-old filly has been sharp in sprints but stretches to a mile here. Her rail draw favors her early speed, and high figures (peaking at 124) suggest she can handle the class jump. Tomlinson excels with improving fillies, and Beschizza’s patient style could help her relax early. She’s unproven at the distance but versatile on surfaces.
Estimated ML Odds: 3/1
Literate (PP 2)
Jockey: Luan Machado (hot at Turfway; 22% win rate this meet)
Trainer: Brad H. Cox (top barn; 25% win rate in stakes, excels on synthetic)
Breeding: Oscar Performance x Infanta Branca (by Henrythenavigator) – Turf/synth pedigree with stamina.
Recent Finishes:
12/21/25: 3rd, Turfway Park, My Charmer S. (1m, synth), speed figure 104.
11/15/25: 6th, Churchill Downs, Chilukki G3 (1m, dirt), speed figure 122.
9/13/25: 8th, Woodbine, Ontario Matron G3 (1 1/16m, synth), speed figure 107.
8/16/25: 6th, Woodbine, E.P. Taylor G1 (1 1/4m, turf), speed figure 106.
7/26/25: 1st, Woodbine, Trillium G3 (1 1/16m, synth), speed figure 105.
Analysis: A consistent graded stakes performer with synth wins, including a G3 at Woodbine. Her recent Turfway effort (3rd in similar company) shows she’s adapting well. Cox’s barn is firing, and Machado knows the track. Expect her to stalk the pace from a good draw. Distance suits perfectly.
Estimated ML Odds: 4/1
Devassa (BRZ) (PP 3)
Jockey: Walter A. Rodriguez (aggressive rider; 16% win rate)
Trainer: Paulo H. Lobo (strong with imports; 20% win rate on U.S. synthetic)
Breeding: Alcorano (BRZ) x Unknown – Brazilian import with limited U.S. data.
Recent Finishes: Limited details available; last known: 10/9/25: 2nd, Indiana Downs AOC (distance unknown, surface unknown), speed figure 85.
Analysis: This South American-bred mare is a bit of a mystery with lower figures than the field. Lobo does well with international shippers, but her 85 speed fig suggests she’s outclassed unless improving sharply on synth. Rodriguez might push for position, but she’s likely a longshot. Watch for any workout buzz.
Estimated ML Odds: 20/1
Love Song (PP 4)
Jockey: Joseph D. Ramos (underrated; 14% win rate)
Trainer: Michael Stidham (excellent with route fillies; 18% win rate)
Breeding: Ghostzapper x Music Note (by A.P. Indy) – Classy pedigree for routes.
Recent Finishes:
12/10/25: 1st, Turfway Park AOC (1 1/4m, synth), speed figure 125.
11/1/25: 7th, Churchill Downs ALW (1 1/8m, turf), speed figure 99.
9/4/25: 2nd, Kentucky Downs ALW (1 5/16m, turf), speed figure 105.
7/23/25: 2nd, Colonial Downs ALW (1 3/16m, turf), speed figure 106.
6/13/25: 5th, Delaware Park AOC (1 1/16m, turf), speed figure 92.
Analysis: Standout with a dominant Turfway win last out (125 fig towers over the field). Stidham’s runners fire on synth, and her route form is impeccable. Mid-pack draw allows tactical options. If she repeats her last, she’s the one to beat.
Estimated ML Odds: 5/2 (favorite)
Condone (PP 5)
Jockey: Fernando De La Cruz (Turfway regular; 19% win rate)
Trainer: Victoria H. Oliver (methodical; 12% win rate in stakes)
Breeding: Justify x Jacaranda (by Congrats) – Versatile with dirt/turf affinity.
Recent Finishes:
11/5/25: 1st, Indiana Downs AOC (1 1/16m, dirt), speed figure 109.
9/4/25: 5th, Kentucky Downs AOC (1m, turf), speed figure 98.
8/8/25: 3rd, Indiana Downs AOC (1m, turf), speed figure 103.
7/17/25: 3rd, Indiana Downs AOC (1 1/16m, dirt), speed figure 99.
6/26/25: 3rd, Indiana Downs AOC (1m, turf), speed figure 96.
Analysis: Consistent closer with a recent dirt win, but synth is a question. Oliver’s patient style suits her, and De La Cruz knows how to time runs here. Figures are competitive (109 peak); could rally if pace melts.
Estimated ML Odds: 6/1
Cairo Consort (PP 6)
Jockey: Vincent Cheminaud (international flair; 15% win rate)
Trainer: Christopher Davis (up-and-coming; 16% win rate)
Breeding: Cairo Prince x Absolutely Awesome (by Street Cry) – Route-oriented.
Recent Finishes:
3/1/25: 11th, Gulfstream Park, Honey Fox G3 (1m, turf), speed figure 102.
6/29/24: 10th, Woodbine, Nassau G2 (1m, turf), speed figure 105.
5/4/24: 7th, Churchill Downs, Distaff Turf Mile G2 (1m, turf), speed figure 113.
3/30/24: 1st, Gulfstream Park, Sand Springs LS (1 1/16m, turf), speed figure 113.
3/2/24: 3rd, Gulfstream Park, The Very One G3 (1 3/8m, turf), speed figure 105.
Analysis: Classy graded winner from 2024, but recent form is spotty. Davis might have her peaking for synth debut. Outside draw helps her stalking style. If she regains old spark (113 figs), she’s dangerous.
Estimated ML Odds: 8/1
Hello Hello Hello (PP 7)
Jockey: Alberto Burgos (local; 13% win rate)
Trainer: Michelle L. Elliott (value trainer; 11% win rate)
Breeding: Echo Town x Mystic Miracle (by Unbridled’s Song) – Speed influence.
Recent Finishes:
4/10/25: 3rd, Gulfstream Park ALW (1m 70y, synth), speed figure 100.
3/13/25: 6th, Gulfstream Park ALW (1 1/8m, synth), speed figure 91.
2/2/25: 3rd, Gulfstream Park ALW (1 1/16m, synth), speed figure 104.
1/5/25: 4th, Gulfstream Park ALW (1m 70y, synth), speed figure 93.
10/26/24: 8th, Gulfstream Park, Our Dear Peggy LS (1m, turf), speed figure 84.
Analysis: Synth specialist with consistent Gulfstream efforts. Elliott’s under-the-radar barn could surprise. Burgos rides aggressively; expect early involvement. Figures are mid-pack, but she handles the surface well.
Estimated ML Odds: 12/1
Trial (PP 8)
Jockey: Irving Moncada (emerging; 14% win rate)
Trainer: Thomas Drury, Jr. (Turfway expert; 20% win rate here)
Breeding: Runhappy x Arraign (by Blame) – Sprint-to-route potential.
Recent Finishes:
12/21/25: 2nd, Turfway Park, My Charmer S. (1m, synth), speed figure 103.
7/28/25: 5th, Presque Isle Downs AOC (6f, synth), speed figure 100.
3/19/25: 5th, Turfway Park AOC (6.5f, synth), speed figure 112.
2/14/25: 2nd, Turfway Park AOC (6.5f, synth), speed figure 112.
1/1/25: 2nd, Turfway Park ALW (6.5f, synth), speed figure 114.
Analysis: Loves Turfway (multiple strong figures here). Recent stakes 2nd shows she’s class-competitive. Drury dominates locally, and outer post suits her closing kick. Top local threat.
Estimated ML Odds: 5/1
