Venue and Race Overview
The Grade III La Canada Stakes is set to take place at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California, USA. This historic venue, often called “The Great Race Place,” features a one-mile dirt oval and a turf course, known for its picturesque setting against the San Gabriel Mountains and its role in major events like the Breeders’ Cup. The race is scheduled for Saturday, January 24, 2026, with a post time of 4:04 PM PT (7:04 PM ET). This G3 stakes is for fillies and mares aged 4 years and up, contested over 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. The purse is $100,000, with weights ranging from 124 lbs. (base) and allowances for non-winners. It’s a two-turn route that rewards tactical speed and stamina, often a prep for higher-level stakes like the Santa Margarita or Apple Blossom, and named after the La Canada Valley. The field includes a strong Bob Baffert contingent, adding intrigue to this winter classic.
Expected Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for January 24, 2026, in Arcadia calls for partly cloudy skies with a high temperature around 66-72°F and a low dipping to 49-54°F. Winds will be from the west at 5.4 mph, with humidity at 52% and a chance of precipitation around 4.7 mm (0.2 inches), potentially in the form of scattered showers. If rain occurs, the dirt track could turn good or sloppy, favoring horses with proven wet-track form and potentially slowing the pace. Otherwise, expect a fast surface, typical for Santa Anita’s winter dirt, which often benefits inside speed but plays fair in routes. Track bias may favor stalkers if sealed due to moisture; monitor updates as the cold front could influence conditions.
Field Analysis
A compact field of 6 fillies and mares enters this G3, mixing Baffert-trained contenders, consistent veterans, and improving types. Key considerations include dirt route form, speed figures (Beyer equivalents noted), and class drops. Bob Baffert saddles three, adding barn strength. Below is a horse-by-horse breakdown, including post position (PP), horse details, jockey, trainer, recent finishes, and analysis.
PP 1: The Old Nine (IRE) (5yo mare, by Oasis Dream – Nine Days)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (up-and-coming, 18% win rate). Trainer: Jesus Periban (solid with mares, 15% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (98) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (100) at DMR Allow (11/22/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 3rd (96) at SA LS (10/18/2025, 1m dirt); 4th (94) at DMR Stakes (8/10/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (99) at SA Allow (7/5/2025, 1m dirt).
Analysis: Irish import with steady U.S. form, including a recent allowance win stretching out. Periban’s barn is consistent; Kimura saves ground from rail. Figures in 100 range competitive; proven router. Handles fast dirt; untested in sloppy but pedigree suggests adaptability. Value if duplicates peak effort.
PP 2: Bluegrass Go Go (KY) (6yo mare, by Into Mischief – Bluegrass Special)
Jockey: Geovanni Franco (reliable, 16% win rate). Trainer: Steve Knapp (underrated, 17% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (95) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (97) at DMR Allow (11/15/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 2nd (94) at SA LS (10/10/2025, 1m dirt); 4th (92) at DMR Stakes (8/5/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (96) at SA Allow (7/20/2025, 1m dirt).
Analysis: Kentucky-bred grinder with local wins; Knapp’s mare consistent at allowance level. Franco presses pace; figures steady. Stalker benefits from honest fractions; handles off tracks (muddy SA placing). Longshot for minors if Baffert trio falters.
PP 3: Brilliantly (4yo filly, by Practical Joke – Brilliant Jewel)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (elite, 23% win rate). Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer, 28% in graded stakes). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (105) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (103) at DMR Allow (11/22/2025, 1m dirt); 2nd (100) at SA Stakes (10/5/2025, 1m dirt); 3rd (98) at DMR LS (8/10/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (102) at SA MSW (7/5/2025, 7f dirt).
Analysis: Lightly raced improver on a three-race win streak; Baffert’s rising star with tactical speed. Prat’s patient ride fits; high figures (105 peak). Proven at SA (multiple wins); unproven in sloppy but pedigree okay. Morning-line favorite with barn support.
PP 4: Nafisa (4yo filly, by Munnings – Nafisa’s Star)
Jockey: Juan Hernandez (leading rider, 24% win rate). Trainer: Bob Baffert (see above). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (102) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (104) at DMR Allow (11/15/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (101) at SA MSW (10/10/2025, 7f dirt); 3rd (98) at DMR Trial (8/20/2025, 6.5f dirt); Layoff prior.
Analysis: Baffert’s second entrant, sharp off maiden win and allowance score. Hernandez stalks effectively; rising figures (104 high). Versatile; wet track potential per muddy DMR effort. Co-contender in barn trio.
PP 5: Ooty (ARG) (5yo mare, by Dabster – Olinka)
Jockey: Tiago Pereira (reliable, 15% win rate). Trainer: Bob Baffert (see above). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (99) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1m dirt); 2nd (101) at DMR Stakes (11/22/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 1st (103) at SA Allow (10/18/2025, 1m dirt); 4th (98) at DMR LS (8/10/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (100) at ARG Import (6/15/2025, 1 1/8m dirt).
Analysis: Argentine import with U.S. stakes placings; Baffert’s third. Pereira closes; solid figures (103 peak). Stamina from pedigree; handles sloppy (muddy ARG win). Upset chance if trip favors.
PP 6: Fugitive Star (KY) (5yo mare, by Star Guitar – Fugitive Angel)
Jockey: Antonio Fresu (up-and-coming, 17% win rate). Trainer: Jorge Becerra (consistent, 14% win rate). Weight: 124 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 4th (96) at SA AOC (12/26/2025, 1m dirt); 3rd (98) at DMR Allow (11/15/2025, 1 1/16m dirt); 2nd (95) at SA LS (10/10/2025, 1m dirt); 1st (97) at DMR Allow (8/5/2025, 1m dirt); 5th (92) at SA Stakes (7/20/2025, 1m dirt).
Analysis: Steady allowance type stepping up; Becerra’s mare hits board often. Fresu rallies; figures modest but consistent. Closer needs pace meltdown; wet track okay. Extreme longshot.
