Race Overview
The La Brea Stakes is a Grade I dirt stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, contested over 7 furlongs with a $300,000 purse. This prestigious event is Race 8 on an 11-race card at Santa Anita Park, located at 285 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia, CA 91007. The race is scheduled to start at 2:30 PM PT on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:00 AM PT.
Santa Anita’s main dirt track is a one-mile oval, and this sprint features a single turn. Following heavy rains that led to the postponement of the original opening day from December 26 to December 28, track conditions for the dirt are expected to be fast, as the surface has had time to dry and be maintained. However, if any lingering moisture or afternoon showers occur, it could result in a good or sloppy track, potentially benefiting horses with proven off-track ability.
Expected Weather Conditions
The forecast for Arcadia, CA, on December 28, 2025, indicates partly cloudy skies with highs around 61-66°F and lows near 43°F. Winds will be light at 3-6 mph from variable directions, with humidity around 41% and a low 20% chance of isolated showers in the afternoon (less than 0.1 inches expected). These mild, dry conditions follow a wet week, but should allow for optimal racing without major disruptions. Bettors should note that cooler temperatures and any residual dampness could favor horses with forward speed or those accustomed to California winter meets. Attendees are advised to wear layers for the variable weather.
Field Analysis
Eleven fillies are entered in this wide-open Grade I sprint, showcasing a mix of California-based talent and shippers. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (form figures where available, most recent on the right; e.g., 127 means 1st, 2nd, 7th), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided as betting guides. Analysis incorporates pedigree, speed figures (from last race where noted), owners, breeders, and available form notes. All are 3-year-old fillies carrying 120 lbs unless noted.
Simply Joking (PP 1, ML 20/1)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (versatile rider with 18% win rate; strong on closers).
Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (20% win rate in stakes; develops graded performers).
Owner: Berkels0813, CMNWLTH, Grantley Acres & Conner, R. Breeder: Barlar, LLC.
Recent Finishes: 242 (2nd in G3 Bayakoa at Del Mar last out, 4th prior, 2nd in Kentucky Oaks earlier).
Analysis: By Practical Joke out of a sprint-oriented dam; last speed figure 103. Strengths: Rail draw for ground-saving trip; flashed talent in Kentucky Oaks and recent G3 runner-up against elders. Weaknesses: Inconsistent at graded level; may need pace help to close on soft dirt. Prospects: Longshot value; could rally for a minor share if leaders duel.
So There She Was (PP 2, ML 15/1)
Jockey: Antonio Fresu (up-and-coming with 16% win rate; tactical on speed types).
Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (high-volume at 15% wins; California specialist).
Owner: Great Friends Stables, Tropical Racing & Davis, M. Breeder: Grantley Acres.
Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last speed figure 103.
Analysis: By Munnings, known for sprint speed. Strengths: Inside post to stalk; barn’s local edge. Weaknesses: Limited graded form; outclassed on paper. Prospects: Mid-odds exotic filler; might press early but fade late.
Five G (PP 3, ML 7/2)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite with 26% win rate; wins major stakes).
Trainer: George Weaver (18% in routes; ships well).
Owner: Gatsas Stables. Breeder: Gatsas Stable LLC. Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 121 (1st in G3 Gulfstream Park Oaks last out on Mar 29, prior wins).
Analysis: By Vekoma; last figure 112. Strengths: Stakes winner returning fresh; sharp works (4f in :49); 7f suits pedigree. Weaknesses: Long layoff; needs to prove fitness. Prospects: Strong shipper; could dominate if ready, continuing non-California upset trend.
Artisma (PP 4, ML 15/1)
Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado (local with 14% win rate; aggressive).
Trainer: Richard Baltas (17% in sprints; turf-to-dirt switches).
Owner: McCauley, Nathan, Nguyen, Calvin & Tran, Joey C. Breeder: Sun Valley Farm.
Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 111.
Analysis: By Munnings. Strengths: Consistent speed; mid-draw flexible. Weaknesses: Stakes unproven; class test. Prospects: Value for exotics; could factor if pace sets up.
Usha (PP 5, ML 9/2)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (top California rider with 22% win rate).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (30% in graded stakes; dominates La Brea with 9 prior wins).
Owner: Pegram, Michael E., Watson, Karl & Weitman, Paul. Breeder: Esler & Raine.
Recent Finishes: 117 (1st in allowance prior, 1st maiden by 11+ lengths, 7th in G2 Raven Run last out Oct 18).
Analysis: By Tiz the Law; last figure 107. Strengths: Explosive maiden/allowance wins; Baffert’s trio edge. Weaknesses: Faded in last stakes; mid-post traffic risk. Prospects: Live contender; rebound potential in sprint.
Brilliantly (PP 6, ML 6/1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (25% win rate; tactical master).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).
Owner: Pegram, Michael E., Watson, Karl & Weitman, Paul. Breeder: Dr. Hartmut H. Malluche & Silesia Farm.
Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 108.
Analysis: By Uncle Mo. Strengths: Pedigree for class; jockey/trainer hot. Weaknesses: Spots experience to rivals; needs clean trip. Prospects: Upside play; could improve for Baffert’s 10th win.
Schilflied (PP 7, ML 50/1)
Jockey: Tyler Baze (14% win rate; veteran).
Trainer: Patrick Gallagher (12% in stakes; patient developer).
Owner: TCK USA. Breeder: Spendthrift Farm, LLC.
Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 88 (low).
Analysis: By Mendelssohn. Strengths: Longshot spark possible. Weaknesses: Outclassed; poor figures. Prospects: Bomber for supers; unlikely.
Her Laugh (PP 8, ML 6/1)
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (21% win rate; strong finisher).
Trainer: Riley Mott (emerging at 16%; stakes hitter).
Owner: Grantley Acres, Pantofel Stable, Wachtel Stable & Mott. Breeder: Grantley Acres.
Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 119 (high).
Analysis: By Practical Joke. Strengths: Top figure; closing kick. Weaknesses: Outer post; adapts to dirt? Prospects: Contender; value if pace hot.
Formula Rossa (PP 9, ML 3/1)
Jockey: Mike E. Smith (Hall of Famer with 20% win rate; 5-time La Brea winner).
Trainer: Mark Glatt (19% off layoffs; sharp workers).
Owner: Muir Hut Stables LLC. Breeder: Greathouse Equine, LLC & Glencrest Farm, LLC.
Recent Finishes: 12 (1st in Del Mar allowance Aug 3 by romp, 2nd in G3 Rancho Bernardo vs. elders last out).
Analysis: By Vekoma; last figure 116. Strengths: Freshened with bullet works; faced tough older (Sweet Azteca); jockey’s race affinity. Weaknesses: Layoff; wide post. Prospects: Favorite for good reason; future star potential.
Magnificat (PP 10, ML 20/1)
Jockey: Mirco Demuro (international with 19% U.S. wins).
Trainer: Richard E. Mandella (Hall of Famer at 18%; patient).
Owner: Spendthrift Farm LLC. Breeder: Spendthrift Farm, LLC.
Recent Finishes: Not detailed; last figure 111.
Analysis: By Omaha Beach. Strengths: Pedigree upside; barn’s class. Weaknesses: Wide draw; inconsistent. Prospects: Longshot rally possible.
Silent Law (PP 11, ML 10/1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (23% win rate; great on Baffert runners).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (as above).
Owner: CSLR Racing Partners LLC. Breeder: Newstead Corp.
Recent Finishes: 2 (2nd/yielding after setting pace in G3 Chillingworth Oct 4).
Analysis: By Tiz the Law; last figure 118. Strengths: Speed from outside; Baffert’s history. Weaknesses: Post forces wide; pace pressure. Prospects: Tactical threat; could wire if uncontested.
