Scheduled Post Time for Race 8: 3:32 PM CT (full Louisiana Derby Day card begins at noon CT)
Venue: Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots – 1751 Gentilly Blvd, New Orleans, Louisiana 70119
The Costa Rising Stakes honors a longtime Louisiana racing supporter and serves as the opening leg of the estimated $1 million All-Stakes Pick 5 on Louisiana Derby Day. It is restricted to Louisiana-bred statebred turf sprinters.
- Distance: 5½ furlongs on turf
- Purse: $100,000
- Surface: Turf
- Field Size: 12 starters (13 entered; Buy the Rights is AE)
- Conditions: For 3-year-olds and upward; weights 119–125 lbs (Lasix permitted)
Expected Weather Conditions & Track Conditions
Mostly clear to sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s°F (around 78–80°F at post time), lows in the low 60s°F overnight. Light winds (5–10 mph), moderate humidity, and zero chance of precipitation. The turf course has been dry for weeks and will race firm (good to firm). This setup strongly favors tactical speed, sharp early foot, and horses with proven turf sprint form over pure closers. No wind or temperature extremes are expected to alter strategy — classic fast-turf sprint conditions at Fair Grounds.
Full Field Analysis
Post Positions, Horses, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Form
All horses are Louisiana-bred. Morning-line odds are official. Recent form is highlighted via key recent starts and figures.
PP 1 – Nine Part (5YO horse, 121 lbs)
- Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (top-tier rider)
- Trainer: Joseph R. Felks
- Owner: Keith Plaisance
- Breeding: Leofric – Alva
- Recent Form: Won last turf start (Feb. 21, FG, 5½f) by 2¼ lengths over several rivals in this field; 5-time winner, never out of the money in 6 starts, never lost at Fair Grounds.
Analysis: The clear 3-1 morning-line favorite. Taking on stakes company for just the second turf start but dominates the profile with speed and FG affinity. Ortiz gives him every chance from the rail. The one to beat — expect him to press or stalk and prove too strong late on firm turf.
PP 2 – Strong Promise (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)
- Jockey: Jansen Melancon
- Trainer: Allen Landry
- Owner: Baronne Farms, LLC
- Breeding: Broken Vow – St. Jean
- Recent Form: 8-time winner; most recent victory in the Premier Night Sprint at Delta Downs; 2 wins from 3 turf starts.
Analysis: Solid 6-1 chance. Landry’s barn is always dangerous with statebred sprinters, and the recent sprint win shows sharp form. Tactical speed suits the firm turf; live exotic play and a major threat if Nine Part falters early.
PP 3 – Hay Jude (4YO gelding, 119 lbs)
- Jockey: Isaac Castillo
- Trainer: Thomas M. Amoss (local powerhouse)
- Owner: Maggi Moss
- Breeding: Aurelius Maximus – Sweet Alice Benbow
- Recent Form: Consistent performer with recent placings in restricted events; Amoss barn firing on all cylinders.
Analysis: 5-1 second choice. Amoss/Castillo combo excels at FG, and the 4yo has upside on firm turf. Tactical versatility makes him a key player underneath the favorites in exotics.
PP 4 – Sassi D (6YO gelding, 119 lbs)
- Jockey: James Graham
- Trainer: Lee Thomas
- Owner: Elite Thoroughbred Racing, LLC
- Breeding: Sassicaia – Diane C
- Recent Form: Veteran with three straight tries at this level; honest mid-pack runner.
Analysis: 10-1 mid-shot. Graham knows the course; needs pace help but can pick up pieces late on firm ground. Respectable each-way value in a wide-open sprint.
PP 5 – Monsieur Candy (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)
- Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
- Trainer: Larry Rivelli (sharp with shippers)
- Owner: JKX Racing
- Breeding: Catalina Red – Cajun Rocket
- Recent Form: Competitive in recent turf sprints; improving figures.
Analysis: Live at 9-2. Rivelli’s horses often peak for stakes, and Loveberry is riding hot. Strong mid-pack threat with closing kick on firm turf — one of the top win contenders at a square price.
PP 6 – Clear as a Bele (6YO gelding, 119 lbs)
- Jockey: Axel Concepcion
- Trainer: David Terre
- Owner: Dark Horse Investment LLC & Lane Cortez
- Breeding: Clearly Now – My Friend Bele
- Recent Form: Steady but facing tougher class here.
Analysis: 15-1 longshot. Concepcion can get him a good trip, but recent figures suggest he’s a notch below the top four. Minor exotic chance at a price.
PP 7 – Big Chopper (7YO horse, 125 lbs)
- Jockey: Jamison Mudd
- Trainer: Jayde J. Gelner (owner-trainer)
- Owner: Jayde J. Gelner
- Breeding: Shackleford – Miss Well Molded
- Recent Form: Won last start at one mile; won this race in 2023 after placing in the Eddie Johnston Memorial Stakes; sharp current form.
Analysis: 15-1 with big upside. Course specialist and sharp right now — the defending champ (2023) could spring a huge upset on firm turf. Respect at a price.
PP 8 – Chad’s Flashy Ways (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)
- Jockey: Juan P. Vargas
- Trainer: Ronnie P. Ward
- Owner: Claudio Solis
- Breeding: Sky Mesa – Flashy Ways
- Recent Form: Recent allowance placings but needs more.
Analysis: 20-1 outsider. Ward can get a live longshot, but class and recent figures point to a tough spot. Best for deeper exotics.
PP 9 – Sounds Like Power (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)
- Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr.
- Trainer: Randy Degeyter Jr.
- Owner: Darrin Dares
- Breeding: Power Jam – Street Sounds
- Recent Form: Consistent statebred sprinter with recent placings.
Analysis: 8-1 value play. Pedroza Jr. and the barn have local success; tactical speed could land him in the mix on firm going.
PP 10 – Smash It (4YO gelding, 119 lbs)
- Jockey: Ben Curtis
- Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
- Owner: Scott Bryant et al.
- Breeding: Star Guitar – Hennesey Smash
- Recent Form: Improving with recent turf tries.
Analysis: 10-1 live longshot. Walsh/Curtis tandem is dangerous; 4yo has upside and could improve for this spot.
PP 11 – Take Charge J J (5YO gelding, 119 lbs)
- Jockey: Emanuel Nieves
- Trainer: Eric Henry
- Owner: Roy Investments, LLC
- Breeding: Take Charge Indy – All Woman
- Recent Form: Game but outclassed in recent stakes preps.
Analysis: 20-1 longshot. Needs a perfect trip but lacks the top-end speed here.
PP 12 – Dr. My Eyes (3YO colt, 112 lbs)
- Jockey: Luis Saez (elite closer)
- Trainer: Grant T. Forster
- Owner: Intrepid Thoroughbreds, LLC
- Breeding: Maxfield – You Caught My Eye
- Recent Form: Youngster with upside but light on experience.
Analysis: 20-1 with Saez aboard. The 3yo gets weight relief and could improve, but faces older, battle-tested sprinters.
AE – Buy the Rights (4YO gelding, 119 lbs) – Michelle Lovell barn; would need scratches to run.
Betting Trends & Strategy Notes
- Favorites Edge: Recent turf winners and FG specialists dominate this restricted sprint.
- Barn Power: Amoss, Rivelli, Landry, and Gelner have strong recent stakes success here.
- Small-Field Sprint Dynamics: Firm turf + 5½f means early speed and clean trips are critical; expect an honest pace. Heavy money on the 3-1 favorite Nine Part, with value shifting to 9-2 Monsieur Candy and past winner Big Chopper.
- Exotics Play: Exacta/trifecta boxes centered on Nine Part (#1) and Monsieur Candy (#5), with Big Chopper (#7), Strong Promise (#2), and Hay Jude (#3) underneath.
Final Prediction
This is a wide-open, high-quality statebred turf sprint on perfect firm ground. Nine Part (PP 1) is the standout with his recent dominant turf win and perfect FG record — he should take this first stakes test. Monsieur Candy (PP 5) and course specialist Big Chopper (PP 7) are the live alternatives at square prices. Expect a thrilling finish with several in contention turning for home.
