Race Overview
The Bay Ridge Stakes is a $125,000 restricted stakes race for New York-bred fillies and mares aged 3 years and up, contested over 1 mile on the dirt track. This one-turn event is Race 8 on a 10-race card at Aqueduct Racetrack, located at 110-00 Rockaway Blvd, South Ozone Park, Queens, NY 11420. The race is scheduled to start at 3:09 PM ET on Sunday, December 28, 2025, with the first post of the day at 11:40 AM ET.
Aqueduct’s dirt track is known for its winterized surface during the colder months, which helps maintain consistency despite weather challenges. Following a significant snowfall of over 4 inches in the New York area on December 27—the heaviest in nearly four years—the track conditions for December 28 are expected to be fast, as temperatures will remain below or near freezing, preventing significant melting. However, if any residual moisture freezes overnight, the track could be harrowed for safety, potentially leading to a slightly slower or “good” surface. Track maintenance crews at Aqueduct are experienced with these conditions, and racing is expected to proceed without interruption.
Expected Weather Conditions
The forecast for Ozone Park, NY, on December 28 calls for cloudy skies with highs around 35°F and lows dipping to 18-28°F. Winds from the NNE at 10-20 mph could make it feel colder, with a 70% chance of light snow in the morning transitioning to mostly cloudy conditions by afternoon. Accumulation, if any, should be minimal (less than 1 inch), but icy patches on roads and walkways around the venue may persist from the prior day’s storm. Attendees should dress warmly, and bettors should note that cold, windy conditions can sometimes favor horses with forward speed or those accustomed to winter racing at Aqueduct.
Field Analysis
Seven horses are entered in this competitive New York-bred affair. Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including starting position (post position, or PP), recent finishes (based on form figures, where lower numbers indicate better placings; most recent on the right), jockey, trainer, key strengths/weaknesses, and overall prospects. Morning line odds (ML) are provided as a betting guide, reflecting probable starting prices. Analysis draws from recent performances, pedigree, and trainer comments where available.
Five To Two (PP 1, ML 50/1)
Jockey: Samuel Camacho Jr. (experienced journeyman with a 10% win rate at Aqueduct this meet; excels in stalking roles).
Trainer: Joseph Parker (solid mid-level conditioner with a 15% win rate in NY-bred stakes; focuses on consistent performers).
Recent Finishes: Form 32 (3rd, then 2nd in most recent; specific races include a close 2nd in a state-bred allowance at Finger Lakes in November, beaten by a neck, and a 3rd in an optional claimer at Aqueduct in October over 7 furlongs).
Analysis: This 4-year-old filly is a two-time winner overall, with both victories coming in lower-level claimers on dirt. She’s lightly raced this year (14 starts, 2-4-0 record) and steps up significantly in class here. Strengths include her inside draw, which could allow her to save ground and stalk the pace, and her pedigree (by Holiday Disguise out of a consistent NY-bred mare). Weaknesses: She’s outclassed on paper, with lower speed figures (around 75 Beyer) and no stakes experience. Prospects are dim as a longshot; she might hang on for a minor award if the pace melts down, but she’s more likely to tire late in this deeper field.
Landed (PP 2, ML 9/5)
Jockey: John Velazquez (Hall of Famer with a 25% win rate at Aqueduct; master tactician who wins big races).
Trainer: Wesley Ward (high-percentage trainer at 33% wins on the NYRA circuit this year, with a 65% in-the-money rate; specializes in sprinters but adapts well to routes).
Recent Finishes: Form 115 (1st, 1st, then 5th most recent; won the Broadway Stakes at Aqueduct in February over 7 furlongs, followed by another win in the state-bred Fleet Indian over 9 furlongs; last out, 4th/5th in a one-mile turf optional claimer at Kentucky Downs in September, beaten 3 lengths after traffic trouble).
Analysis: A 4-year-old multiple stakes winner (10-5-1-3 career), she’s a $500,000 yearling with strong breeding (half-sister to graded stakes-placed Venti Valentine). Strengths: Proven at Aqueduct (3-for-4), versatile distances, and tactical speed to press or close. Weaknesses: Returning from a layoff (third start off February win, but cross-entered elsewhere recently), and the turf-to-dirt switch could require adjustment. Prospects are excellent as the morning-line favorite; she thrives in NY-bred company and could wire the field if uncontested early. Trainer’s hot streak adds confidence.
Atlantis Queen (PP 3, ML 6/1)
Jockey: Mychel Sanchez (up-and-coming rider with a 18% win rate; aggressive style suits frontrunners).
Trainer: Gary Capuano (Maryland-based with occasional NY shippers; 20% win rate in allowances, but less in stakes).
Recent Finishes: Form 43 (4th, then 3rd most recent; dominated a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Laurel on November 15 by 5 1/4 lengths; prior 4th in the Gin Talking Stakes at Laurel last December over 7 furlongs; 3rd in a tough optional claimer at Pimlico in October).
Analysis: This 3-year-old filly (14-2-4-0 career) is stepping up after a breakout allowance win against elders. Strengths: Stamina for the mile (out of stakes-winning mare No Hayne No Gayne, 2nd in 2018 Bay Ridge), and her recent dominant score suggests improving form. Weaknesses: Class hike is steep, with only one prior stakes try (off the board); cold weather might test her if the track is tiring. Prospects: Upside as a lightly raced improver; could rally for a piece if the pace is hot, but needs to prove she belongs at this level.
Soloshot (PP 4, ML 10/1)
Jockey: Jaime Rodriguez (strong finisher with 22% win rate at Aqueduct; good on closers).
Trainer: Ilkay Kantarmaci (claims barn specialist; 15% win rate post-claim, debuting this one after a $45,000 tag).
Recent Finishes: Form 36 (3rd, then 6th most recent; 2nd by a half-length in the NYSSS Staten Island over 7 furlongs on November 22; prior wins in NYSSS Cupecoy’s Joy (6f turf) and 2023 Lady Finger; 6th in a turf sprint claimer before claim).
Analysis: A 4-year-old dual stakes winner (19-3-3-0 career), she’s versatile on surfaces. Strengths: Recent strong form in state-bred stakes, closing kick, and pedigree (out of stakes-placed Sweet Queen). Weaknesses: Barn debut adds uncertainty; shorter distances suit her better than this mile. Prospects: Value play at double-digit odds; could close for second or third if the frontrunners falter in the cold.
Bernietakescharge (PP 5, ML 2/1)
Jockey: Ruben Silvera (pacesetting specialist; 12% win rate but effective on speed horses).
Trainer: Domenick Schettino (veteran with 18% win rate in routes; notes she’s forwardly placed and thriving).
Recent Finishes: Form 64 (6th, then 4th most recent; 2nd by 2 1/4 lengths in the Empire Distaff over 9 furlongs; gate-to-wire win in Heavenly Prize Invitational over this course/distance by 6 1/4 lengths, earning 97 Beyer).
Analysis: This 4-year-old homebred pacesetter has a strong Aqueduct affinity. Strengths: Loves leading (or near pace), career-best figures here, and family ties (half-sister to stakes winners). Weaknesses: Prefers two turns per trainer, but has won at one mile; recent form dipped slightly. Prospects: Top contender to dictate terms; well-suited to the track and could rebound strongly.
Cupid’s Heart (PP 6, ML 4/1)
Jockey: Manuel Franco (top NY rider with 24% win rate; versatile and tactical).
Trainer: Bruce Levine (stakes expert; 20% win rate in NY-breds, four-time winner with this mare).
Recent Finishes: Form 17 (1st, then 7th most recent; won a state-bred allowance at Belmont in October over 1 mile; 7th in a tougher open stakes at Saratoga in August).
Analysis: A 6-year-old veteran (four-time winner), she’s consistent in NY company. Strengths: Route experience and closing ability. Weaknesses: Age might catch up in cold weather; outer post could force wide trip. Prospects: Solid for exotics; could rally if pace sets up.
Fast And Frisky (PP 7, ML 6/1)
Jockey: Christopher Elliott (emerging talent; 16% win rate, good on shippers).
Trainer: Brad Cox (Eclipse Award winner; 28% win rate overall, excels with routers).
Recent Finishes: Form 29 (2nd, then 9th most recent; 2nd in an allowance at Churchill Downs in November over 1 1/16 miles; 9th in a graded try at Keeneland in October).
Analysis: This 4-year-old three-time winner ships from Midwest bases. Strengths: Trainer’s prowess and stamina. Weaknesses: Wide post and NY debut; recent blowout raises questions. Prospects: Intriguing if she adapts; could surprise for a share.
