Race Overview
The Sunland Park Oaks is scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in Sunland Park, New Mexico. This venue, located near the borders of Texas and Mexico just outside El Paso, features a one-mile dirt oval and is known for its winter racing season, highlighted by Kentucky Derby and Oaks preps like the Sunland Derby. The track’s dirt surface typically favors speed but can play fair to closers in routes with an honest pace.
The race is Race 7 on a 10-race card, with a scheduled post time of 3:13 PM MT (5:13 PM ET). It’s open to 3-year-old fillies, contested over 1 1/16 miles on dirt, with a purse of $250,000. This ungraded stakes (having lost its Grade III status) serves as a Kentucky Oaks qualifier, awarding points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale to the top five finishers. All horses carry 121 lbs, with one equipment change: Coffee Connection removes blinkers.
Expected weather conditions in Sunland Park on February 15 include mostly cloudy skies with a high of 73°F and a low around 42°F. Winds from the southwest at 8-10 mph, humidity around 22%, and no precipitation (0% chance). The track should be fast and dry, favoring speed-oriented fillies, though the clouds may keep conditions mild for stamina tests in the stretch.
The field of eight features a mix of graded performers and improving allowance winners, with Bottle of Rouge favored off her juvenile class. Pace could be moderate, setting up for tactical speed or closers.
Field Analysis (By Post Position)
Ivy Girl (KY)
- Post Position: 1
- Morning Line Odds: 15/1
- Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez (experienced rider with a 15% win rate; strong from inside posts, patient in routes).
- Trainer: Amelia J. Green (solid Southwest conditioner, ~12% wins; develops young fillies well).
- Breeding: Maxfield – Critikal Reason (by Aptitude). Sire Maxfield brings graded stamina, dam adds tactical edge.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 1st in maiden special weight (6f dirt, fast) at Turf Paradise on 1/20/2026, Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) ~85, sharp gate-to-wire. Prior starts limited, but showed progress. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Longshot but the rail suits ground-saving trips. Fresh off a maiden win, she could press early if improved. Pedigree suggests mile-plus potential; Green’s prep work reliable. If dry track holds, exotic filler if pace collapses.
Cashed (CA)
- Post Position: 2
- Morning Line Odds: 5/1
- Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado (versatile with 18% wins; excels in mid-pack stalking).
- Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (high-volume, ~20% wins; strong with California shippers).
- Breeding: I’ll Have Another – Cash Offer (by Shackleford). Sire offers classic stamina, dam sprint speed.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 3rd in Starlet S. (G2, 1 1/16m dirt, fast) at Los Alamitos on 12/7/2025, ESF 92, closing from off pace. Before: 2nd in allowance (1m dirt, fast) at Del Mar on 11/15/2025; 1st in optional claiming (1m dirt, fast) at Santa Anita on 10/12/2025. Consistent in 7 starts (2-3-2). Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Value at 5/1 from good post. Unbeaten at a mile (2-for-2), her Starlet bronze shows graded upside. O’Neill’s barn hot with shippers; Maldonado’s tactics fit. Mostly cloudy, dry weather suits her even run. Strong win contender.
Not a Lady (KY)
- Post Position: 3
- Morning Line Odds: 6/1
- Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen (up-and-coming, 16% wins; family ties aid in big spots).
- Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Famer, 25%+ wins; dominates preps).
- Breeding: Into Mischief – Justa Lady (by More Than Ready). Sire class, dam precocity.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 2nd in Untapable S. (1m dirt, fast) at Fair Grounds on 12/28/2025, ESF 90, game rally. Before: 1st in maiden special weight (1m dirt, fast) at Churchill Downs on 11/23/2025; 2nd in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Keeneland on 10/18/2025. 4 starts: 1-3-0. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Appealing at 6/1. Consistent (first/second in 4 of 5), her Untapable effort signals readiness for stretch-out. Asmussen’s prowess in Oaks preps huge; post allows stalking. Winds won’t affect; live threat.
Bottle of Rouge (KY)
- Post Position: 4
- Morning Line Odds: 6/5
- Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (elite, 22% wins; tactical speed master).
- Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer, 25%+ wins; multiple Oaks winners).
- Breeding: Vino Rosso – Blues Corner (by Bluegrass Cat). Sire emerging stamina, dam turf/dirt versatility.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 6th in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1, 1 1/16m dirt, fast) at Del Mar on 11/1/2025, ESF 88, even vs. elite. Before: 1st in Del Mar Debutante (G1, 7f dirt, fast) on 9/7/2025, ESF 95; 2nd in maiden (6f dirt, fast) at Del Mar on 8/10/2025. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Deserving favorite at 6/5. G1 winner as juvenile, her BC effort forgivable against top company. Baffert’s 3yo fillies often improve; sharp works since December. Post ideal for front-mid trip; dry, fast track favors. The one to beat.
Touch of Magic (KY)
- Post Position: 5
- Morning Line Odds: 15/1
- Jockey: Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. (stakes veteran, 20% wins at Sunland).
- Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (see above; dual entry boosts chances).
- Breeding: Into Mischief – Magical World (by Distorted Humor). Sire versatility, dam graded class.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 2nd in allowance (1m dirt, fast) at Oaklawn Park on 1/17/2026, ESF 87, clear but outfinished. Before: 2nd in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Fair Grounds on 12/14/2025; 3rd in maiden (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Churchill on 11/9/2025. Placed in last 3 with blinkers. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Outsider at 15/1, but Asmussen’s second string has upside. Consistent placings since equipment; post suits stalking. Pedigree screams distance; mild weather helps closers. Exotic play.
In the Aggregate (KY)
- Post Position: 6
- Morning Line Odds: 10/1
- Jockey: Luis Negron (local ace, 20% wins at Sunland).
- Trainer: Dick Cappellucci (hot meet, ~22% wins; local specialist).
- Breeding: Raging Bull (FR) – Alleging (by War Front). Sire turf influence, dam stamina.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 1st in allowance (1m dirt, fast) at Sunland Park on 1/25/2026, ESF 86, dominant. Before: 2nd in allowance (7f dirt, fast) at Zia Park on 12/22/2025; 1st in maiden (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 11/30/2025. Perfect board hitter (4 starts: 2-2-0). Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Value at 10/1. Undefeated on board, her Sunland allowance win shows track affinity. Cappellucci’s form peaks; Negron’s knowledge plus. If clouds tire speed, her rally wins.
Pashmina (KY)
- Post Position: 7
- Morning Line Odds: 7/2
- Jockey: Cristian A. Torres (rising star, 17% wins; strong closer).
- Trainer: Rob Atras (consistent, 18% wins; good with shippers).
- Breeding: Constitution – Panthera Onca (by Super Saver). Sire durability, dam power.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 2nd in Busanda S. (1 1/8m dirt, fast) at Aqueduct on 1/10/2026, ESF 89, game effort. Before: 1st in maiden special weight (1m dirt, fast) at Aqueduct on 12/28/2025, ESF 85; 4th in debut (7f dirt, fast) at Belmont on 10/25/2025. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Strong second choice at 7/2. Maiden breaker followed by solid Busanda; distance no issue. Atras ships confidently; wide post ok for rally. Dry conditions suit; key rival.
Coffee Connection (KY)
- Post Position: 8
- Morning Line Odds: 8/1
- Jockey: Olaf Hernandez (patient, 15% wins; fits closers).
- Trainer: Todd W. Fincher (meet leader, ~25% wins; excels locally).
- Breeding: Nyquist – Hot Coffee (by Burning Roma). Sire class, dam sprint grit.
- Recent Finishes: Last out: 1st in maiden special weight (6 1/2f dirt, fast) at Zia Park on 12/15/2025, ESF 84, sharp. Before: 2nd in allowance (6f dirt, fast) at Sunland on 11/22/2025; 2nd in maiden (5 1/2f dirt, fast) at Zia on 10/20/2025. 7 starts: 1-4-0. Track conditions: Fast dirt.
- Analysis: Intriguing at 8/1. Blinkers off could sharpen; consistent board hitter. Fincher’s local edge big; wide draw requires rally. If pace hot, she closes strongly.
