Horse Race Preview: Race 7 – Shawn Swartz Overnight Stakes at Turf Paradise

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Race Overview

The Shawn Swartz Overnight Stakes is set for Thursday, February 19, 2026, at Turf Paradise Racetrack in Phoenix, Arizona. This desert oasis venue, perched in the foothills of the Sonoran Desert just off Bell Road, features a one-mile turf course known for its firm, consistent going that rewards tactical speed and clean trips in routes.

The race is the seventh on a nine-race Thursday card, with a scheduled post time of 4:05 PM MT (6:05 PM ET). It’s an overnight stakes restricted to 3-year-old fillies, contested over one mile on the turf, with a purse of $30,000. All carry 119 lbs (non-winners of two races get 2 lbs off, Arizona-breds get 3 lbs). This is a key stepping stone for sophomores on the Arizona circuit, often producing stakes winners later in the year.

Expected weather conditions in Phoenix on February 19: Sunny to partly cloudy, with a high of 70°F and lows near 48°F. Winds from the southwest at 5-8 mph, humidity around 30%, and a 10% chance of any precipitation. The turf is listed as firm and should remain that way—ideal for fast times and horses with proven grass form.

The field of eight 3-year-old fillies is competitive, with a pair from trainer Valorie Lund and strong representation from local barns. Song of Songs is the 3/1 morning line favorite off her sharp recent figures, but Run Your Mouth and Playful offer value in a setup that could favor closers if the pace is moderate.

Field Analysis (By Post Position)

1. Song of Songs (KY)

  • Morning Line Odds: 3/1
  • Jockey: Carlos Montalvo (15% win rate at Turf Paradise; patient stalker)
  • Trainer: Kevin Eikleberry (14% wins; consistent with Arizona-breds and turf routers)
  • Breeding: Country House – Song of Songs (by Medaglia d’Oro)
  • Recent Finishes: Last: 1st in allowance (1m turf, firm) at Turf Paradise on Feb. 8, 2026 (by 1 length, speed figure 95). Before: 2nd in maiden special weight (1m turf, firm) at Santa Anita on Jan. 18. Track conditions: Firm turf.
  • Analysis: The favorite draws the rail, perfect for her ground-saving style. Eikleberry has her in peak form, and Montalvo’s tactical rides shine here. Pedigree blends stamina and class; on firm turf, she can control the pace and hold off challengers. The one to beat.

2. Stratia (KY)

  • Morning Line Odds: 6/1
  • Jockey: Karlo Lopez (12% wins; aggressive from inside)
  • Trainer: Valorie Lund (13% wins; sharp with improving fillies)
  • Breeding: Army Mule – Stratia (by Street Sense)
  • Recent Finishes: Last: 3rd in allowance (1m turf, firm) at Turf Paradise on Feb. 8. Before: 1st in maiden (1m turf, firm) at Golden Gate on Jan. 20. Track: Firm.
  • Analysis: Lund’s first string has tactical speed. Lopez can press from post 2; pedigree for the distance. At 6/1, she’s live for exotics if she gets a clean trip on the firm grass.

3. Mendelssohns Comet (KY)

  • Morning Line Odds: 8/1
  • Jockey: Manuel Americano (13% wins; versatile)
  • Trainer: Valorie Lund (see above; her second runner)
  • Breeding: Mendelssohn – Comet (by Into Mischief)
  • Recent Finishes: Last: 4th in optional claiming (1m turf, firm) at Turf Paradise on Feb. 1. Before: 2nd at Santa Anita (1m turf, firm) on Jan. 11. Track: Firm.
  • Analysis: Lund’s depth shows here. Americano fits her mid-pack style; post 3 is ideal. Pedigree screams grass; value longshot if improving.

4. Playful (KY)

  • Morning Line Odds: 9/2
  • Jockey: Alex M. Cruz (12% wins; patient closer)
  • Trainer: Gonzalo Anderson (11% wins; good with shippers)
  • Breeding: Violence – Playful (by Distorted Humor)
  • Recent Finishes: Last: 2nd in allowance (1m turf, firm) at Turf Paradise on Feb. 8 (figure 92). Before: 1st in maiden at Golden Gate (1m turf, firm) on Jan. 25. Track: Firm.
  • Analysis: Strong second choice with a stalking trip from post 4. Anderson preps well; recent figures competitive. Pedigree for routes; major threat on firm turf.

5. Knaughty Knight (KY)

  • Morning Line Odds: 5/1
  • Jockey: Blake Nunnally (local 13% wins)
  • Trainer: Howard F. Gibson (12% wins; Arizona specialist)
  • Breeding: Barkley – Knaughty Knight (by Knight of the Realm)
  • Recent Finishes: Last: 1st in allowance optional claiming (1m turf, firm) at Turf Paradise on Feb. 1 (figure 91). Before: 3rd at Golden Gate. Track: Firm.
  • Analysis: Local hero with course affinity. Nunnally knows the oval; post 5 suits pressing. Consistent on firm grass; solid for the board.

6. Topic Thunder (KY)

  • Morning Line Odds: 4/1
  • Jockey: Orlando Mojica (17% wins; aggressive)
  • Trainer: Wade Rarick (14% wins; California shipper)
  • Breeding: Bolt d’Oro – Topic Thunder (by Tapit)
  • Recent Finishes: Last: 3rd in stakes (1m turf, firm) at Santa Anita on Jan. 25 (figure 94). Before: 2nd at Del Mar. Track: Firm.
  • Analysis: Shipper with class. Mojica can put her in the race early; post 6 versatile. Pedigree top-notch; live at 4/1 if she handles the desert.

7. Tiger Lady (CA)

  • Morning Line Odds: 10/1
  • Jockey: Isaias D. Enriquez (11% wins; patient)
  • Trainer: Frank Lucarelli (10% wins; Washington shipper)
  • Breeding: Smiling Tiger – Tiger Lady (by Roar)
  • Recent Finishes: Last: 5th in allowance (1m turf, firm) at Golden Gate on Feb. 1. Before: 4th at Turf Paradise on Jan. 18. Track: Firm.
  • Analysis: Ship-in with closing kick. Lucarelli can surprise; widest post requires luck. Longshot for supers on firm going.

8. Run Your Mouth (KY)

  • Morning Line Odds: 5/1
  • Jockey: Guillermo Rodriguez (19% wins; hot local)
  • Trainer: Isaiah Ortiz (13% wins; improving barn)
  • Breeding: Sharp Azteca – Run Your Mouth (by Street Boss)
  • Recent Finishes: Last: 1st in allowance (1m turf, firm) at Turf Paradise on Feb. 8 (figure 101). Before: Maiden win at Santa Anita. Track: Firm.
  • Analysis: Fresh off a dominant score with top local connections. Rodriguez’s ride from post 8 can rally wide; highest recent figure. Strong contender at a price.