Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, California –
Race 7: Grade II Buena Vista Stakes
Venue Location: Santa Anita Park, 285 W Huntington Drive, Arcadia, CA 91007 (iconic Southern California thoroughbred track nestled at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains, hosting its 2025-2026 winter/spring meet on a championship turf course).
Scheduled Post Time: 3:39 PM PT (Race 7 on a nine-race card; first post 12:30 PM PT).
Distance/Surface: 1 mile on the turf course (rail at 0 feet; firm expected).
Purse: $200,000 (guaranteed; $120,000 to winner). For fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and upward. Weights: 124 lbs; non-winners of a Grade I or II at a mile or over since Aug. 28, 2025 allowed 2 lbs; non-winners of a graded stakes at a mile or over since Feb. 28, 2025 allowed 4 lbs.
Track Conditions: Turf course firm and fast. Recent Santa Anita turf races have been producing quick, fair times with no bias—ideal for tactical speed and strong closers at the one-turn mile.
Expected Weather Conditions: Mild and pleasant late-February Southern California classic. High near 68-70°F, low around 48-52°F, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light winds (5-10 mph from the west), humidity ~45-55%, and a 0-10% chance of precipitation. Perfect conditions for firm turf, fast times, and a comfortable crowd—no weather bias anticipated.
The 39th running of the Grade II Buena Vista Stakes (formerly the Buena Vista Handicap) is a key early-season turf mile for older fillies and mares and a prestigious spot on Santa Anita’s stakes calendar. The compact seven-horse field is wide-open on paper, headlined by a Grade 1-placed filly making her 4-year-old debut off a layoff and a pair of sharp recent local winners. Pace projects moderate with a couple of tactical types (Princesa Moche, Vibez), setting up well for stalkers and one-run closers on firm going. Thought Process is the narrow morning-line favorite, but Grand Slam Smile, Vibez, and Watchtower offer strong challenges in a high-quality betting race.
Full Field with Post Positions, Analysis, Jockey/Trainer Notes, and Morning Line Odds
PP 1 – Thought Process (KY, 4/F, Collected – Creative Thinking by Creative Cause)
Jockey: Hector Isaac Berrios
Trainer: Philip D’Amato (perennial turf stakes powerhouse at Santa Anita; multiple graded wins this meet)
Morning Line Odds: 9/5 (narrow favorite)
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: Grade 1-placed (3rd in 2025 Del Mar Oaks equivalent form) and multiple stakes winner as a 3-year-old, including sharp scores at a mile on turf. Most recent: strong placing off a layoff pattern; returns fresh with two bullet works. Collected progeny excel routing on firm turf; rail post is a major plus for a ground-saving trip. D’Amato/Berrios combo is money in these spots—expect her to stalk or press and pounce in the lane. The class horse on paper and one to beat.
PP 2 – Grand Slam Smile (CA, 5/M, Smiling Tiger – Royal Grand Slam by Grand Slam)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Trainer: Sean McCarthy (solid with California-breds; excellent recent strike rate)
Morning Line Odds: 3/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Top California-bred stepping up after a strong 2025 campaign (multiple stakes wins/placings, $800k+ earnings). Recent: competitive efforts in restricted stakes showing tactical speed and closing kick. Smiling Tiger bottom adds durability; local connections and course affinity are big pluses. McCarthy has her razor-sharp—versatile enough to sit mid-pack or press. Live second choice and a must-use in all tickets.
PP 3 – Watchtower (KY, 5/M, Demarchelier (GB) – Zloty by Exchange Rate)
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Trainer: Richard Baltas (sharp with improving turf mares; knows Santa Anita inside-out)
Morning Line Odds: 9/2
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Consistent graded placer with recent sharp efforts at 1 1/8 miles (3rd in Jan. 8 stakes). Demarchelier progeny handle firm turf and the mile well; has shown strong late energy. Baltas/Fresu team dangerous—expect a patient mid-pack trip and powerful stretch rally. Solid underneath play at a square price and a threat to upset.
PP 4 – Princesa Moche (PER, 6/M, Muwaary (GB) – Queen Jezebel by Motivator (GB))
Jockey: Mirco Demuro
Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (multiple Buena Vista wins; red-hot with older turf runners)
Morning Line Odds: 5/1
Weight: 122 lbs
Analysis: Peruvian import in career-best form—dominant winner of a one-mile turf allowance/optional claimer here on Jan. 31 (top recent figure) after a sharp placing at 6½f. Tactical speed to sit just off the pace or press; O’Neill excels second-off a layoff or with imports. Demuro knows the track—forward trip likely. Dangerous at the price and a major exotics threat.
PP 5 – Hannah Buckle (IRE, 5/M, Bated Breath (GB) – Thoughtless Moment (IRE) by Pivotal (GB))
Jockey: Armando Ayuso
Trainer: Leonard Powell (excellent with European imports and turf fillies)
Morning Line Odds: 30/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Irish-bred with some Group form overseas but recent U.S. efforts mixed (4th in Jan. 8 stakes). Bated Breath speed suits the mile; Powell can peak them. Ayuso upgrade is a plus—best as a deep superfecta bomb or value longshot if the pace melts. Live at a huge price for multis.
PP 6 – My Perfect Wave (KY, 4/F, American Pharoah – My Perfect Ten by Perfect Soul (IRE))
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Tim Yakteen (solid with lightly raced 4YOs; good with American Pharoah progeny)
Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Lightly raced with upside off a recent placing (7th but flattered in Jan. 31 stakes). American Pharoah stamina ideal for firm turf; Geroux knows how to ride her. Yakteen can have them ready—sneaky value play who could improve with the setup and a clean trip. Respectable longshot for exotics.
PP 7 – Vibez (KY, 5/M, Collected – Bayonet by Colonel John)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (top local rider)
Trainer: Peter Eurton (high-percentage with consistent turf mares)
Morning Line Odds: 7/2
Weight: 120 lbs
Analysis: Sharp recent form—2nd (beaten narrowly) in the Jan. 31 one-mile turf stakes here after a placing at Del Mar. Collected speed blended with stamina suits the trip perfectly; Eurton/Hernandez combo wins these races often. Expect a tactical, ground-saving trip from mid-pack and strong finish. Best chance to upset the favorite and a must-include in all tickets.
Summary and Wagering Angles:
A wide-open Grade II turf mile with no dominant standout. Thought Process (1) brings elite class off the layoff and deserves favoritism, but Vibez (7) and Grand Slam Smile (2) offer the strongest challenges at square prices. Princesa Moche (4) and Watchtower (3) add depth for exotics. The pace setup favors stalkers—look for Thought Process or Vibez to sit a perfect trip and strike late.
